Saturday 2/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - February 18

Feb. 17, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $104,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Tales of Home	D Cabrera
PLACE	8-5	4	Hypersport	C A Torres
SHOW	6-1	5	Canadas Customs	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Silvia	W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Comedy Act	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Shes All Class	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/9 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 HOUSE WRECKER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	5	House Wrecker	N Juarez
PLACE	5-1	2	Betcha	R Bejarano
SHOW	9-2	9	Chasing Shadows	I Castillo
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Show Me Grace	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	12	Proud Victoria	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	10	Stylin N Profilin	D Cabrera
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
RACE #3 $45,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 BRESLAU
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Breslau	F Arrieta
PLACE	5-2	9	Ninja Warrior	C A Torres
SHOW	8-1	4	Banjo Bear	R E Eramia
WILD CARD	30-1	5	Lansdowne	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Mac Daddy Too	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Papa Rocket	G Saez
* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX
RACE #4 $103,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	5	Lassie My Girl	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	15-1	1	Bennykayandsuzytoo	R Bowen
SHOW	12-1	4	Timbavati	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Summorya	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Shes Storming	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	8	One Way Or Another	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #12 BYE BYE RAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	12	Bye Bye Ray	C A Torres
PLACE	5-1	6	J Js Joker	F Arrieta
SHOW	2-1	10	Heroic Move	J Rosario
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Kupp	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Seas of Normandy	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Hard Spun Fantasy	T Baze
* EXACTA: 12-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/10/12 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
RACE #6 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	11	Shoppers Revenge	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-1	3	Airtime	C A Torres
SHOW	9-2	10	Easy Action	J Rosario
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Two Eagles River	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Bens Legacy	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Thirsty John	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/10/11 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
RACE #7 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:38 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Simovic	F Arrieta
PLACE	5-2	5	Miracle Worker	J Rosario
SHOW	9-2	3	Mullikin	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Manta Rey	W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	11	Kyandi	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	12	Nautical Star	L S Quinonez
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
RACE #8 $106,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Congressman	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-1	8	Great Escape	C A Torres
SHOW	9-2	1	Call Me Fast	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Major General	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	10	Roman Centurian	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Tiz Rye Time	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX
RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	9	Keystone Field	I Castillo
PLACE	5-2	4	Ginobili	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	7-2	2	Law Professor	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	2-1	6	West Will Power	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Last Samurai	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	10	Caddo River	G Saez
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #10 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-5	6	Watch This Birdie	F Arrieta
PLACE	8-1	14	Indian Spirit	C A Torres
SHOW	20-1	1	Magnolia Mae	D Cabrera
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Count It All Joy	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Honeycamp	W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	10	Rosalies Destiny	E Gonzalez
* EXACTA: 6-14 BOX, 14-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/14 BOX, 1/7/14 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - February 18

Feb. 17, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 EXCHEQUER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Exchequer	S Camacho
PLACE	8-1	4	Pharaoh Fancy Pant	S Spieth
SHOW	9-2	2	Chucky	P Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Odds On	M Jimenez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	I Am That I Am	L Sanchez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Its Fate	D Centeno
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 CALLE DE BOYD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Calle de Boyd	P Morales
PLACE	2-1	6	Not a Dance	M Meneses
SHOW	8-1	2	Dorsoduro	S Marin
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Strings	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Andy Walks With Me	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Heavy Weight	J A Batista
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $28,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Gather as You Go	P Morales
PLACE	7-2	1	Covenant Lady	C E Rojas
SHOW	9-2	2	Striking Chrome	S Camacho
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Anador	A A Gallardo
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Slot Queen	M Martin
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	My Lips Are Sealed	L Reyes
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #4 $32,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Putthepastbehind	A A Gallardo
PLACE	6-1	1	Dropkick Murphy	P Morales
SHOW	5-1	3	Call Me Ice Man	S Camacho
WILD CARD	5-1	7	This Runs for You	H R Diaz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Ocean of Storms	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Bright Forecast	A Quinonez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #5 $32,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 FROSHADO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Froshado	L Sosa
PLACE	6-1	6	R Tootsie Glitter	S Camacho
SHOW	9-2	7	Damaso	P Morales
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Pachanga Loca	L Reyes
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Miss New York	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Heavens Express	J A Batista
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #6 $27,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Tuddenham Mill	P Lopez
PLACE	4-1	13	Silver Peak	A A Gallardo
SHOW	2-1	5	Dos Passos	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	10	Graphene Cassock	P Morales
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	9	Oskar Martinez	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Even the Wind	A A Gallardo
* EXACTA: 2-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/13 BOX, 5/10/13 BOX
RACE #7 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Mr. Cash	D Centeno
PLACE	5-1	2	Charging Aero	A Suarez
SHOW	7-2	8	Happy Cajun	S Camacho
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Straight Shot	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Scrutinizer	P Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Blakenstein	E Jaramillo
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	10	Poseidons Passion	A A Gallardo
PLACE	3-1	1	Train to Artemus	P Lopez
SHOW	12-1	4	Tracy Anns Legacy	S Camacho Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	11	Night Cap	D Centeno
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	9	Spun Glass	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	The Elle Train	A Quinonez
* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/10 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX
RACE #9 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	12	More Mucho	P Lopez
PLACE	5-2	7	Raw Honey	P Morales
SHOW	5-1	3	Sassy Charlee	J A Batista
WILD CARD	3-1	13	Gleaming Brutality	E Jaramillo
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Win Or Cellar	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	9	I Said Hey	M Allen
* EXACTA: 12-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/12 BOX, 3/7/13 BOX
RACE #10 $100,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Fluid Situation	S Camacho
PLACE	5-1	4	The Critical Way	A S Arroyo
SHOW	7-2	1	Panther Island	P Lopez
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Chess Master	A A Gallardo
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	County Final	P Morales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Full Disclosure	L Reyes
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - February 18

Feb. 16, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [OC 62k/N2X, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Risen Star - February 18

Feb. 16, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
The $400,000 Risen Star (G2), Fair Grounds
Race 13 – The Risen Star is the first Kentucky Derby prep race this year that offers the increased qualifying points of 50, 20, 15, 10, 5. A fast pace is projected in this nine-furlong stake so the advantage goes to late runners on the long stretch run. (9) Curly Jack had an excellent 2-year-old campaign in which he accumulated 17 Derby qualifying points in his last three starts – a win in the Iroquois (G3), fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He has not run since November,q but he did win at first asking last year and has an impressive work tab at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has solid stats bringing horses back from long layoffs. (8) Tapit’s Conquest is one of three starters in the Risen Star for Brad Cox who already has five wins in official Derby preps. This horse made his 2023 debut in a Fair Grounds allowance where he missed the win by just a neck and should appreciate the added distance. (13) Victory Formation is one of those Cox winners on Derby trail in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. His undefeated record is on the line and he has drawn post position 13 in a race where he is likely to face significant pace pressure. (12) Crupi is still a maiden after five starts where was second or third in all of them and where this Todd Pletcher runner faced very strong fields that were won by very talented horses. His race last month was his best with a speed figure that is one of the top three in the field. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 9 with 8, 12, 13. Trifecta box: 8, 9, 12, 13.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - February 18

Feb. 16, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (9) Battling Bubbles rallied for second in her first try on turf and should work out a winning trip here. (6) Zosterop might wake up off a class drop and a switch to Tapeta. (1) Dixie Groove might welcome a switch to Tapeta. (5) Anabella Princess could be a contender at this distance. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-9.
4th race – (9) Dream Knight drops into a claimer and should prove best in this field. (7) Power Humor was third in both career starts and looks like the main threat. (10) Norfie is a firster who can be a factor here. (2) Bernardo’s Legacy was second last time and should be in the picture again. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-9-10.
6th race – (4) Balletic was second in her turf debut and should get the job done today. (7) Lexi’s Spirit was a game third the last time and looks like the one to fear. (1) Accomplished Girl should benefit from a rail trip. (9) Golden Haven is a firster who could be a factor here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-7-9.
8th race – (11) King d’Oro (A) had some traffic issues when second last time and should make amends here. (1) Mondego seems primed for a big effort in his debut. (5) Coast Along was a close third in his debut and should be a top contender in this field. (6) For the Chief will be closing quickly at the end. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-11. Doubles: 1-5-6-11 with 2-5-8-9.
9th race – (9) Alley Oop Johnny (C) dropped from 10-1 to 6-1 and then overcame a bumpy, wide trip to finish a fast-closing third. Should prevail in this field while moving over to synthetics. (8) Venezuelan Triumph rallied for second in a stakes and looks like the one to fear. (5) What Say Thee could be tough to catch here. (2) Indy Lyon was second in his last two starts and should be in the picture again. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-8-9.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(11)	King d’Oro	A, 1/21	8 GP	Was a troubled second
(9)	Alley Oop Johnny	C, 1/18	9 GP	Had a wide, tough trip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 18, 2023

Feb. 16, 2023


Race 13 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, February 18 | Post Time 7:14 PM Eastern
Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds
Top Contenders:
After some good fortune last week in the Sam F. Davis Stakes where we took a stand against favorite Dubyuhnell (because he was returning off a two month layoff and had some question marks) and cashed nicely on a $53 exacta (for $1) and a $263 trifecta (for $0.50), I think the Risen Star Stakes has similar profit potential.
Tapit’s Conquest (8) has yet to run in a stakes but appears to have the most potential to improve and make his mark in the division. Starting his career last summer at Saratoga in a sprint, the colt improved markedly when trying two-turns in the second start of his career last October, opening up by four lengths in the stretch and coasting home in a field of 10. Rested over two months, Tapit’s Conquest made his three year old debut four weeks ago on January 1, at Fair Grounds, at a mile and one-sixteenth. In spite of being away for a long time, Tapit’s Conquest rallied from fifth to miss by a neck on the wire. The winner was Determinedly, who had run much more recently and who was ahead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Tapit’s Conquest should run much better in his second start off a layoff and second as a three year old, and we can expect him to take another big step forward off the career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race. With the exception of the 99 figure Private Creed earned on turf last month when second in the Texas Turf Mile Stakes, the figures Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest earned are the highest dirt figures in the field. Considering Tapit’s Conquest should improve off his last effort and that the colt put in a very sharp fourth best of 62 five furlong workout coming into this race, he gets top billing to win this year’s Risen Star Stakes.
Two Phil’s (10) is also making his second start as a three year old and that could give him an edge over horses which either have not run this year or those which have run more than once this year. After a poor seventh place effort in the Breeders’ Futurity last October, also his first try around two turns, Two Phil’s proved his belongs in the division with a decisive five length win in the Street Sense Stakes three week later, earning a career best 93 speed figure. Rested almost three months, Two Phil’s returned in the Lecomte Stakes, the same race 2022 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee made his sophomore debut in. After rallying from fifth to get within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch, Two Phil’s was no match for Instant Coffee and ended up second, beaten two and one-half lengths but more importantly was five and one-quarter lengths ahead of the third horse. Earning a new career-best 95 figure for that effort, Two Phil’s also has tremendous upside for improvement in his second start off the layoff and every right to run well enough to win.
Silver Heist (11) has potential to post the upset in this race as he will be ignored by bettors favoring horses with stakes experience, or just more experience in general. The colt is making only the third start of his career and is the most lightly raced entrant in the field. On the other hand he’s a son of Tapit (also the sire of Tapit’s Conquest), who has sired a high number of top three year olds the past few years. He’s also one of three trained by Steve Asmussen (the other two being Harlocap and Private Creed). Silver Heist was making only the second start of his career and first start in a route last month in the race won by Determinedly and in which Tapit’s Conquest finished second, and he was only one length behind the winner. The 96 figure earned was pretty strong and logically can be improved upon in his second route and third start. Better still he put in a 59.4 five furlong workout in preparation for the race which was the best of the day at the distance.
Determinedly (4) won that race at Fair Grounds last month leading from start to finish with a 98 figure which would be competitive in the Risen Star if repeated, but he has also won from off the pace as well as he did two races before that. In between those two efforts came a third place finish as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds so it may be more difficult to predict a repeat of his last effort, particularly as jockey Luis Saez, who rode Determinedly in his last four races, gets off to ride Angel of Empire. Nevertheless, I would not argue with anyone who believes he can win.
Victory Formation (13) has to be mentioned as win contender if for no other reason than he’s undefeated in three starts. He’s also one of three from the formidable Brad Cox barn (the other two being Tapit’s Conquest and Angel of Empire). Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones Stakes to start the year, Victory Formation led every step of the way, widening to a three length margin which could have been more as he was ridden out in the late stages. As such, the 97 figure Victory Formation earned can be improved upon. Although leading from start to finish in the Smarty Jones, the colt showed he could win from off the pace prior to that when stalking in second in the early stages and the win last time out came from the outside in a field of eight. However, the 13 post he may break from in this field is a bit more problematic so I am not sure he can repeat those efforts. It must be noted Cox saddled Mandaloun to win this race in 2021 on a very similar pattern to Victory Formation so he can’t be ruled out as a win contender in this very deep and contentious field.
Horses to consider for exacta bets in this big field and likely at high odds include Single Ruler (2), a last out maiden winner saddled by Keith Desormeaux, who pulled off the huge upset 10 years ago with Ive Struck a Nerve ($272 for $2), Angel of Empire (6), who finished second to Victory Formation recently and Crupi (12), who has yet to break his maiden in five starts but who is trained by Todd Pletcher and who enters the race off a head defeat with a speed figure competitive to many in this field. With regard to these three, personally I am covering them in the exacta plays below using “ALL” in second position under Tapit’s Conquest and Two Phil’s.
Win bets: With odds being the most important criteria to consider before making win bets I will be betting Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10) if either or both are 7 to 2 or higher odds near post time.
Additionally, I will consider a smaller win bet on Silver Heist (11) at 5 to 1 or higher.
This is based on the likely proposition that the two other main contenders, Determinedly (4) and Victory Formation (13) would be much lower than minimum odds of about 7 to 2.
Exactas:
The first strategy is to maximize profit by avoiding the lowest paying combinations between the two favorites Determinedly and Victory Formation so we should consider these two tickets:
Box Determinedly (4), Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10) and Silver Heist (11)
Box Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10), Silver Heist (11) and Victory Formation (13)
Although win bets on either (or both) Tapit’s Conquest and Two Phil’s should be profitable, I would also consider two small exacta key bets as follows:
Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10) over ALL
Additionally, if either of those two is 10/1 or more at post time I might consider turning those bets around and playing ALL over Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10), which could pay handsomely if a big longshot wins such as was the case in 2013 when Ive Struck a Nerve paid $272 for a $2 win bet.
Additionally, considering Silver Heist is going to likely go to post at double digit odds, in addition to a small win bet, a $1 (or more) “exacta as a place bet” appears well worth the risk:
ALL over Silver Heist (11)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

......Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/18/23

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February 18, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Old Pal
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so by default let’s go with the first-timer Old Pal, a son of Grazen that brought $160,000 as a yearling despite a modest female family which tells us he must be a very good looking individual. His workouts leading up to his debut have been good enough to expect a competitive performance first crack out of the box. Today’s extended sprint distance should work in his favor, as the Mark Glatt-trained colt, while not a quick type, has displayed the ability that can finish up well through the lane. Grass shouldn’t hurt, either, so under leading rider Juan Hernandez, the sophomore state-bred colt is listed at 5/2 on the morning line, which seems reasonable considering the field’s apparent lack of depth.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-American Refugee
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: American Refugee shows rising speed figures with every outing, and with another forward move today the son of American Pharoah should have little difficulty handling this starter optional claiming field. A facile four length winner of a maiden $40,000 affair at Los Alamitos two races back, the lightly raced gelding finished a solid third in a fast extended sprint in his most recent outing and today stretches out again to a distance he’s proven he can handle. With top rider Juan Hernandez staying aboard, the Bob Baffert-trained gelding is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and could very well go lower. He’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Finally an Eddie; 1-Catalina Eddy
Backups/savers: 5-Moon Ice

Forecast: This is a much more competitive split of the first race, a six and one-half furlong turf sprint for maiden California-bred 3-year-olds. Finally an Eddie went through the ring for $385,000 at the 2022 OBS March Sale but was bought back by his breeder and is a full brother to a pair of state-bred stakes winning sprint fillies, How About Zero and Don’t Sell. If he is even remotely as quick as either of those two the Simon Callaghan-trained sophomore will be live at first asking. He appeared a bit green when breezing a furlong in a rapid :10 flat during the sale’s preview session and was well in hand and noticeably best in a team gate drill last Saturday, able to go much quicker if permitted to do so. The barn has average stats with first time starters but at 4-1 on the morning line the son of Square Eddie might be worth a small gamble. Catalina Eddy, another by Square Eddie, finished a distant second on dirt in his racing debut two weeks ago in a fast, highly rated affair in which he crossed the wire more than eight lengths clear of the third place finisher. If the short turnaround doesn’t dull him and if he can transfer that main track effort to grass, the Craig Lewis-trained colt should be major player, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll probably not offer much wagering value. Moon Ice has hit the board in his last three starts, all on turf, though his speed figures are well below par for this level. Most recently he missed at 3/5 and may not be one to trust, though if you feel the need you can use him on your ticket as a saver.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Big Switch
Backups/Savers: 3-Rose Maddox

Forecast: Big Switch just failed at 3/5 when missing by a half-length in a similar first level allowance middle distance affair for fillies and mares, but off her best effort the daughter of Mr. Big should be able to make amends. The John Sadler-trained Cal-bred projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip behind sprinter-stretching-out Manorelli and then have every chance to reel that one in when given her cue at the top of the lane. This will be her second start off a long layoff, so there should be no excuses. Rose Maddox, genuine, consistent, and effective on any surface, was a state-bred stakes winner up north last month in a performance that earned her a career top speed figure. She doesn’t quite have the tactical speed as the favorite (and in fact finished a distant second to ‘Switch in the Melair Stakes last year) but will grind away and be dangerous if her chief rival fails to duplicate her best form.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Harper’s Gallop; 2-Aloha Kitten
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Harper’s Gallop was a bit unlucky when second in a $25,000 claiming miler over the local lawn last month, and in a sign of confidence she is protected today in this starter allowance grass affair at a mile and one eighth. Though unproven at this trip, the Leonard Powell-trained mare shouldn’t have any issues with the extra furlong and with the switch to Frankie the daughter of Suances most likely will be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace. Aloha Kitten will be prominent throughout, as well. Runner-up in an optional claimer over the Golden Gate Fields’ all-weather surface last time out, the Craig Dollase-trained mare could become the controlling speed if her connections opt for that strategy, and as a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course the daughter of Kitten’s Joy is a “must use” at 7/2 on the morning line.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Wegonahavagoodtime
Backups/savers: 1-Honeymoon Suite; 11-Lemon Drop Shot

Forecast: Bottom rung maiden ($20,000) claimers meet over five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the late Pick-4. Wegonahavagoodtime was more than four lengths clear of the rest when second at this level in late December in a race that produced a career top figure. The John Sadler-trained gelding, claimed for $50,000 out of a poor run for $50,000 in his previous race, appears to have found his friends, and at 3-1 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) the Cal-bred son of Big Bad Leroybrown seems reasonably solid. Honeymoon Suite drops to his lowest level ever after a pair of substandard performances, but the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding has some prior form that makes him dangerous. Against this modest bunch he could be capable of snapping back, though the rail post does him no favors. Lemon Drop Shot is a 12-race maiden with eight second place finishes, so he clearly has gotten accustomed to losing. He was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar in his most recent outing up north last month and his speed figures have stagnated, but feel free to toss him on a ticket or two as a backup if you feel the need.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Fayette Fox
Backups/savers: 4-Mount Mary

Forecast: Fayette Fox exits an infinitely stronger maiden special weight turf sprint in her debut, and while she was clearly overmatched the daughter of Sharp Azteca earned a respectable speed figure despite a troubled trip. She stretches out from the rail while dropping into a high priced maiden claimer and seems sure to improve a ton with that bit of experience behind her. A strong five furlong workout (1:00h, second fastest of 19) since raced is another positive factor, so at 7/2 on the morning line the Doug O’Neill-trained filly offers a good gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. For protection, you may want to include Mount Mary, an Irish-bred filly dropping out of the same race as our top pick. The Simon Callaghan-trained sophomore flashed a bit of speed before faltering badly but should be capable of better against this group based on her form overseas and a pair of okay efforts vs. maiden special weight company last fall.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Adare Manor
Backups/Savers: 7-Teddy’s Barino

Forecast: Although she fell short of hopes and expectations last year when going winless in her final three well-spaced outings after beginning 2022 with two wins by a total of 25 lengths, Adare Manor remains highly regarded and seems likely to return to form after her most recent five month vacation. This class drop into the allowance ranks for a confidence-building victory makes sense. She began her latest workout cycle at Los Alamitos before shipping over for an impressive half mile breeze five days ago to have her right on edge. This will be her first start without blinkers and her first under leading pilot Juan Hernandez, so at this seven furlong distance the Bob Baffert-trained filly seems likely to put her best stuff on display. Teddy’s Barino was a bit exposed when a distant third in the Chillingworth Stakes-G3 behind Ce Ce last fall after winning her previous four starts. She returns after four months of rest and should be given a chance to regain her top form. The daughter of Grazen lands the cozy outside post and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace stalking trip.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Bay Storm
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Bay Storm shortens to a sprint – arguably her best trip – and after battling bravely to the wire when second in the Megahertz Stakes-G3 over a mile two weeks ago she is wheeled back on short rest to take on an easier group in this year’s edition of the listed Wishing Well Stakes. In the frame in 11 of 12 career starts with consistently strong speed figures, the daughter of Kantharos is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and certainly will offer good value at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

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February 18, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 14-race Saturday night card set to roll. The feature goes in Race 10, an Open Pace with a $31,500 purse. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 also starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

4-Hillexotic (3-1)-Makes the 2nd start off the bench and lands in a great spot to post the 1st win of 2023. Tuned up with a 153.1 qualifier on 1-21 at M1, and then had a tough trip at DD from the 8-hole on 2-7. Should be tight enough to beat this crew and has hit the board in 8 of 13 here with 3 pictures. Gingras sticks with Burke and picked this Muscle Hill 6-year-old over the 3-5-7.

Race 11

3-Dontpassme Hanover (3-1)-Drops into a comfortable level for a picture and has cashed checks at M1 versus better. Todd McCarthy needs to provide a good steer, doesn't have much gate speed. Should be in striking range throughout with this post draw.
5-JK Standingovation (6-1)-Moves up after 2 needed starts and has raced well. Was bet down last week and driven aggressively. But ended up cutting his own mile in a gapped-out field for much of the way and was used off the gate. Looking for a smoother trip and a better performance in the 3rd start since 10-23-22. This was Joe B's choice over #2.

Race 12

1-Stonebridge Reef (7/2)-Beat this kind from post 10 three starts back and recent form has been fine. Drawing the rail shouldn't hurt and Dunn sticks, his choice over #3
5-HP Lis Shadow (5-1)-Raced big on 2-4 at this class in the 1st start since 1-17. Should offer a solid price and the switch to Bartlett could help. He knows the 4-year-old, and this is only the 2nd Big M appearance.

Race 13

7-Striking Impact (7/2)-Yonkers shipper has 2 wins in 3 starts at M1 and drops to a spot to shine. The Fusco barn has been cold but this 4-year-old should be a major player.
8-Acton Hanover (3-1)-The post may hurt but has been too good to overlook. Gingras can provide a sharp steer and if that happens the race may need to go through this Burke trainee.

0.50 Late Pick 4

4/3,5/1,5/7,8
Total Bet=$4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds $500K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 5 Headlines Card

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February 17, 2023 | By Dustin Fabian
The Road to the Triple Crown makes a stop in Louisiana this Saturday at the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, which headlines a monster 13-race card that features six star-studded stakes events. Action gets underway at 1:00PM ET, with the Risen Star slated for Race 13, at 7:14PM ET.

My focus on Saturday is the Fair Ground’s $500K Guaranteed All-Stakes Late Pick 5, which is a non-jackpot-style bet that features 15% takeout.

Here’s my approach:

Race 9 (5:05PM ET) // $100K Colonel Power S. // About 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

This is a tough race to handicap as 6-of-14 entrants are marooned on the ‘also eligible’ list, meaning they won’t get in unless there is a scratch from the main body of the field. Let’s focus on the horses that we know are going to race, and then we can briefly look at those that would be of interest if they draw in. #7 ANGASTON (9/2) is up against it, making just his second start since August 2019 (and his first since June 2021), but he appears to have the early foot to clear this field. I don’t love the layoff, so I’ll also use #1 ICE CHOCOLAT (7/2), #3 ALL IN SYNC (9/2), #4 PYRON (10/1) and #8 SURVEILLANCE (5/2) on the ticket. Of those on the AE list, priority goes to #13 STRAIGHT ANSWER (7/2) and #10 MY PAL MATTIE (5/1), whose presence would turn the field upside down from a pace perspective. He appears to be the quickest early.

Race 10 (5:37PM ET) // $250K Mineshaft S. (G3) // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

With more popular connections, you’d think #6 HAPPY AMERICAN (7/2) would be a much shorter choice, given he has won two straight over this strip with solid speed figures. This field is slightly deeper than those last two races, as #7 PIONEER OF MEDINA (9/2) ships in from Gulfstream and Ohio Derby/Lexington winner #3 TAWNY PORT (4/1) makes his seasonal debut. PIONEER OF MEDINA is a clear threat to wire this field, especially with Luis Saez in the irons and gets the nod from me over HAPPY AMERICAN.

Race 11 (6:09PM ET) // $150K Fair Grounds S. (G3) // About 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

Have to respect #2 TWO EMMYS (3/1) a lot here. The seven-year-old gelding has historically overachieved and finds a race void of much early speed. He has the ability to dictate this race from start to finish. #4 GENTLE SOUL (7/2) ran him down late in a prep race here on Jan 21 and is 3-for-4 over this turf course. The only blemish came when he was on put on the lead two back. He seems to thrive better when he has a target to chase. #1 TIZ THE BOMB (9/2) is an absolute wildcard as he enters off a long layoff.

Race 12 (6:41PM ET) // $300K Rachel Alexandra S. (G2) // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

As one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites, #2 HOOSIER PHILLY (6/5) is a standout in this group. I do have concerns there, though. She has never raced away from Churchill Downs and has been off approaching three months. I was shocked when #4 CHOP CHOP (8/5) was defeated in the Silverbulletday S. last month at Fair Grounds – turned away by a less heralded stablemate – but the blinkers she adds today may keep her focused late.

Race 13 (7:14PM ET) // $400K Risen Star S. (G2) // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

Brad Cox’s fingerprints are all over the top of the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ Leaderboard, with four of the top 11 horses under his care. He sends out three entries in this race and my focus is on his top two chances, #13 VICTORY FORMATION (3/1) and #8 TAPIT’S CONQUEST (6/1). VICTORY FORMATION drew terribly, but has the natural early speed to clear most of his inside rivals. I think he can make the lead if Flavien Prat wants, or he can sit just off a pace set by Determinedly or Harlocap. TAPIT’S CONQUEST nearly ran down Determinedly in an allowance race at Fair Grounds in January despite a very slow early pace. If things heat up on the front end, he’ll be running best late.


My Ticket

Race 9 : #1 ICE CHOCOLAT, #3 ALL IN SYNC, #4 PYRON, #6 MANNY WAH, #7 ANGASTON, #8 SURVEILLANCE
Race 10: #3 TAWNY PORT, #6 HAPPY AMERICAN, #7 PIONEER OF MEDINA
Race 11: #2 TWO EMMYS, #4 GENTLE SOUL
Race 12: #2 HOOSIER PHILLY, #4 CHOP CHOP
Race 13: #8 TAPIT’S CONQUEST, #1 VICTORY FORMATION

Ticket Cost: $72 for 50-cents

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #8

#1 Cagliostro	He won at 3/5 like he was supposed to off the bench last time out, and I really liked that effort. He made a sharp sweeping move around the far turn and wasn't threatened late. Hoping he has some upside in the second start off the layoff, as he figures to offer a playable mid-range price here.
#5 First Defender	Stretchout player looked legit at first asking here last month, and he's probably a handful here if he can bring that type of effort around two turns.
#8 Willakenzie	He might get a decent spying trip here while tracking some stretchout sprint players, and he can be tough here if he has a move forward in him off that debut win.
Race Summary	Cagliostro will be a big part of my day -- if he wins, it'll be a good one. Think a handful of potential forward players might set things up for another run from him from off the pace, and a few high-upside players lined up in here might keep the price attractive.

Fair Grounds - Race #10

#8 Mr. Wireless	He has to turn the tables on Happy American out of those last two, but he's a player in here with super reliable form, and I think he's going to trip out from a good spying spot.
#6 Happy American	He is better than ever right now and has shown a slightly more tactical dimension in those recent scores. Nothing wrong with giving him the nod right back -- he's there again if he holds his form.
#3 Tawny Port	He stacked up nicely with Grade III types in the sophomore ranks last year, and he wasn't embarrassed by Epicenter in the Jim Dandy, either. Think he's a late threat for this.
Race Summary	Mr. Wireless will likely offer a playable price in here with the presence of a few interesting new shooters this time around, and I think he'll show up with his typical solid effort again here -- hoping it's enough.

Fair Grounds - Race #13

#9 Curly Jack	Think there is a lot to like at a mid-range price in here, as his company lines stack up nicely here -- he was last seen running second behind Instant Coffee, who won the first big leg of the local series here last month.
#13 Victory Formation	He has done nothing wrong through three starts, and I think he is tactical enough to avoid getting caught up in an early battle, but he may still have to hustle a bit for position from this wide draw. Worry that leaves him vulnerable late while maybe a bit overbet.
#7 Sun Thunder	He's one of a few I considered on top at a price in here, as I think the race flow suits his style, and he chased a tough Baffert winner at Oaklawn last time out. Along late.
Race Summary	Curly Jack gets the edge in a race that looks pretty fun on paper -- #10 Two Phil's and maiden #12 Crupi both fit for consideration in here as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #1

#5 SPENDAHOLIC (8-5)	Can’t go beyond in this spot, lives up to favoritism.
#4 ECHO ALPHA SIX (4-1)	Rallied into fast pace after slow start, showed close-up ability prior.
#6 READY TO FORGIVE (5-2)	Improved efforts in last pair, has decent Turf Paradise record.
Race Summary	SPENDAHOLIC couldn’t catch Diodoro-trained repeater Durango Jess (4-14, $69k) at 4-1/2F last out, but he towers over this field in his second start off a six-month layoff. He looms a short price, so play 5-4 and 5-6 exacts for better value.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#3 SIXTYFOUR G T O (2-1)	California invader should sit perfect stalking trip in first start for Evans.
#2 BOURBON AND WATER (4-1)	Meets all class droppers but he, too, gets lively pace to rally into.
#7 PRECEDENT (6-1)	Dueled and held third behind deep closers in lone try on dirt since arrival.
Race Summary	In what appears better than a $12,500 maiden claimer, SIXTYFOUR G T O, who finished behind a MSW class dropper and a 1-to-2 favorite at Golden Gate last out, gets the nod in his first start for the track’s leading trainer. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#5 UNA PALABRA (9-2)	Buried lesser after near miss in heavily-bet debut, projects ideal trip.
#1 TOBY’S CANDY (10-1)	Blazed to first-out win on main track; dam was 2yo stakes winner at Saratoga.
#3 DON’T GET PICKLED (3-	Broke maiden on turf, stakes placed twice on dirt since then.
Race Summary	UNA PALABRA romped in her second start after a promising debut when she got out slightly at the break, saved ground, made two moves and just missed at one mile on the turf. She will have plenty of pace to rally into and offers good value for a win and place bet in the $60,000 Princess of Palms Stakes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 4	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) /10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Stakes • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 1:57P
MIRACLE WOOD S. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $500 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES AT A MILE OR OVER, ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF $50,000 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER, 4 LBS.; OF $40,000 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER, 6 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). TROPHY TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2023 WITH 23 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. PRINCE OF JERICHO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCE OF JERICHO: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. FEELING WOOZY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. RICCIO: Horse ranks in the top three in average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	PRINCE OF JERICHO	7/5	7/2
1	FEELING WOOZY	6/1	5/1
2	RICCIO	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SEVEN'S ELEVEN	4	15/1	Front-runner	82	78	47.4	18.0	6.5
5	COFFEEWITHCHRIS	5	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	84	86	77.6	77.6	69.6
3	PRINCE OF JERICHO	3	7/5	Stalker	84	88	84.0	84.0	81.5
1	FEELING WOOZY	1	6/1	Stalker	77	86	81.5	82.5	74.5
2	RICCIO	2	9/2	Stalker	82	76	81.5	72.0	66.0
7	B WEST	7	8/1	Stalker	79	77	49.5	73.5	64.5
6	WE DONT NEED ROADS	6	15/1	Trailer	76	76	54.6	65.1	55.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland ParkPURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 7	.50 Pick 3(Races 7-8-9)/$1 Exacta/$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $41,100 • Post: 3:04P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SHEZA AHOTMESS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. JM JAZZLYNN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. NINE WALKS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. DOIN SOMETHING RIGHT: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. JESSES WISH: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
9	SHEZA AHOTMESS	5/1	5/1
8	JM JAZZLYNN	10/1	7/1
6	NINE WALKS	4/1	7/1
7	DOIN SOMETHING RIGHT	8/1	8/1
1	JESSES WISH	3/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESSES WISH	1	3/1	Average	87	77	4.5	0.0	0.0
2	JHETT EYE	2	12/1	Slow	67	61	6.2	0.0	0.0
3	FANCYINALLOFUS	3	8/1	Average	86	78	3.7	0.0	0.0
4	JESS STEVIE	4	10/1	Average	76	80	5.7	0.0	0.0
5	DASH FLASH	5	12/1	Average	82	74	5.7	0.0	0.0
6	NINE WALKS	6	4/1	Fast	87	79	2.4	0.0	0.0
7	DOIN SOMETHING RIGHT	7	8/1	Fast	87	75	2.8	0.0	0.0
8	JM JAZZLYNN	8	10/1	Average	86	84	3.6	0.0	0.0
9	SHEZA AHOTMESS	9	5/1	Fast	81	86	1.0	0.0	0.0
10	EASY ON THE EYE	10	8/1	Average	85	78	3.7	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Rillito Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $7600 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 18, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 NOLANS DRAGON 2/1
# 5 YN MIRA LINDA 6/1
# 1 SWINGIN MR CARTEL 5/2

I've got to go with NOLANS DRAGON. He has been moving solidly as of late while recording very strong Equibase Speed Figures. Recorded a solid speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. A solid 86 avg class figure may give this horse a distinct class edge versus this field. YN MIRA LINDA - Monteverde has this mare racing well and is a formidable selection based on the respectable speed figures put up in short races lately. With a strong return on investment of +46 this trainer has shown decent results with entries running at this distance and surface. SWINGIN MR CARTEL - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Garcia running at this distance are the top in this group. Looks competitive against this group of horses in this race and will most likely be one of the early speedsters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 50

Rating:

#12 ONTOTHENEXT (ML=5/1)
#8 PINKY TUSCADERO (ML=4/1)


ONTOTHENEXT - Like the way this filly's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Trainer Evans moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a lower level today. Look for a sharp effort given the class advantage. Ranked number one in earnings per race entered. Another confirmation that this horse outclasses this field. PINKY TUSCADERO - Ouzts and Smith have had terrific success together over this last year. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the capability to make her presence felt. Horse made up some ground in the home stretch last out on January 11th at Turfway Park. That event is better than it looked. I believe this animal will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the second time, so Smith must have confidence in her.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 HONEYBELL (ML=3/1), #3 ONE MORE SISTER (ML=8/1), #10 MIDNIGHT XO (ML=8/1),

HONEYBELL - Just don't think she is offering enough value at the expected odds. ONE MORE SISTER - This filly finished outside the top 3 on Aug 23rd and wasn't close to victory last out either. MIDNIGHT XO - Common speed fig last time around the track at Turfway Park at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ONTOTHENEXT - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this filly. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 44 on Jan 26th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #12 ONTOTHENEXT to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass