Saturday 2/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Aqueduct Hotlist - February 25

Feb. 24, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

5th race [NY, Alw 72000 N1X, 6F] – (7) Grannys Connection (A) won an open company maiden special weight by more than six lengths after running second in her debut against NY-breds. (1) Royal Currency broke her maiden in November and since then has a pair of second-place finishes at this level. (3) Jet Set Juliet had the lead, finished third last time, and now changes barns. (2) Bern Rosey Bern won a $16,000 claimer in December, was claimed, and since then made one start at this level.

7th race [Alw 82000 N1X, 6

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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 25, 2023

Feb. 23, 2023

Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 25 | Post Time 5:43 PM EasternHoneybee Stakes – Grade 3 Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

The Honeybee Stakes is an important race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and drew a full field of 12 three year old fillies, with seven entering the race off first or second place finishes. Before we get to the contenders let’s discuss a horse I think is a “vulnerable” morning line favorite, Grand Love (3), who helps make the race very playable. As we’ve seen recently in the Road to the Derby division, horses making their first starts as three year olds tend to be bet by the public at large as if they ran last month, rather than last fall, and that is the case with Grand Love, who was last seen on November fourth when finishing sixth of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She had won in her debut in August, in a sprint, then finished third as the even money favorite in the Pocahontas Stakes in September. She was a need-the-lead type last year and there is absolutely no reason she should be the favorite as she is far from the most probable horse to win this race. Still, I hope the public at large follows suit with the low morning line and that will result in other horses offering value for win bets.

The top two in terms of probability to win are the next two morning line favorites, Wet Paint (7), who opens at 7 to 2 and Towhead (2), who opens at 9 to 2. We’ll start with Towhead, not only because of higher odds but also because she’s drawn beautifully in the two post, outside a horse in Effortlesslyelgant (1), who led from start to finish four weeks ago in a six furlong sprint and who will have to be sent for the lead from the start. That allows Towhead to get the rail easily going into the first turn as Effortlesslyelgant, Grand Love, Condensation (5) (who just led from start to finish at a mile), as well as the three most outside horses – Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12) set the pace or push the horses which are in front. Considering Towhead relaxed in fourth at the half mile-mark last time out before launching her bid and easily drawing off, she should get a dream trip under Isaac Castillo, who rode her for the first time in her first local start on January 20.

Wet Paint (7) debuted on turf and that was completely irrelevant. Since then her three dirt races have all been “A” efforts, resulting in a win in October, a runner-up effort in December and a very strong win on January 28. That last win came in the local prep for the Honeybee, the Martha Washington Stakes, in which Flavien Prat (who was riding for the first time and who rides today), got her to relax in sixth early before she made a big move on the turn to get to third, then drew off late. She’s improved in each of her three starts since her debut, has put in a big workout at Oaklawn coming into the race, and has every right to win.

After the top pair, there are six horses which can run well, excluding Grand Love, who I’m taking a stand against. Some of those will go to post at high odds, and all can be considered for second on exacta wagers and third on trifecta wagers. Those are Gambling Girl (4), who finished second in the Busanda Stakes in New York last month, Condensation (5), who in spite of wiring the field two weeks ago has closed from behind, and the four most outside runners – Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12). Taxed finishes second, Defining Purpose third, in the Martha Washington behind Wet Paint while Boss Lady Bailey was second behind Towhead last month. Doudoudouwanadance won the first three starts of her career last summer and fall then ran badly and put in a very strong second best of 131 five furlong workout so could rebound, while Olivia Twist showed she belongs at this level when winning the Trapeze Stakes in December but faltered badly when fifth in the Martha Washington.

Win bets:

I will consider win bets on Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher, with emphasis on Towhead as she will likely present higher odds.

Exactas:

Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) over Towhead (2), Gambling Girl (4), Condensation (5), Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12).

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 25, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 14-race program set for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

3-Bettor Memories (3-1)-Raced in 150.2 in the last 2 starts and if comes up with that kind of speed it could lead to a win here. Drops and Gingras should have this veteran engaged throughout.
7-As Always (6-1)-This is the other Burke trainee and David Miller lands here tonight. There aren't any Jimmy Freight's in this field and should be a main player. Probably can close fastest of all but needs a trip to win.

Race 11

3-Dribbling Bi (8-1)-Has had trouble at this level but that was before Lasix. Steps up off a win and should provide a price if improvement continues in the 2nd start on Lasix.
8-Taxi Out S (9/2)-Comes off an even effort in its US debut on a track rated good. Looking for better, Dunn sticks over the 3-5-7 and maybe a dry track will help.

Race 12

4-Arrhythmic Surge (5-1)-Drops after getting a bumpy trip and Joe B gets the call tonight. Might be ready for a picture, raced better in last. This pilot should get a good early seat and be in striking range down the lane.
6-Leon David (7/2)-Finally gets some post relief after being stuck with post 9 in the last 2 starts. Gingras sticks and looks like a main player.

Race 13

1-Rockin The Aces (7/2)-Was 11-lengths back at the half and rallied to finish 3rd. Sizzled the back half and finished with a 26.1 last quarter. Dunn should be closer to the leaders throughout and take his chances down the lane.
3-Revolver N (3-1)-This is Todd McCarthy's choice over #6, this feels like a drop and pop situation. Maybe a new set of hands will wake this 9-year-old up and could have found a beatable field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

3,7/3,8/4,6/1,3
Total Bet=$8

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Jeff Siegel's Golden Gate Best Plays - Feb. 25, 2023

February 25, 2023

With racing rained out in Southern California this weekend, let’s turn our sights to the Bay Area, where wet weather can be dismissed as nothing more than an inconvenience thanks to the all-weather Tapeta racing surface. Saturday’s card at Golden Gate Fields is typically challenging, but we’ve identified a couple of double-digit long shots that may be worth your consideration in the win pool and/or the exactas and trifectas.

Eighth Race – Golden Gate Fields (post time: 4:15 PT)
3-Topanticipation (GB) (10-1)

Trainer Manuel Badilla has two entrants in the featured eighth race, a second-level allowance event at a mile and one-sixteenth for older fillies and mares. The 2-1 morning line favorite, Signorina Merisi, is strictly the one to beat after winning her first two local starts since being imported from England, most recently in a productive, highly rated race over this course and distance last month. No doubt, the progressive daughter of Caravaggio could easily win again. However, stable mate Topanticipation was a better filly overseas, having competed in valuable handicaps and listed stakes, and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for her U.S. debut. Worth noting is that she has won off a layoff in the past, having registered a smart handicap victory at Leicester in England following a more than six month vacation last spring. She’s a first-time Lasix user with a strong closing kick, so at 10-1 on the morning line, she merits a strong look in the win pool and in the various exotic options.


Ninth Race - Golden Gate Fields (post time: 4:45 PT)
5-Stormin Galileo (12-1)

After more than 15 months on the sidelines, Stormin Galileo returned 20 days ago in a restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claiming sprint and shook off some of the rust when finishing a close fifth (beaten a length and one half) in what was a strong race for the level. The son of Circumference established the pace from his rail draw and led the way until inside the furlong pole before giving way grudgingly in the closing stages. Under the circumstances, it was a sharp effort, so much so that trainer Isidro Tamayo has chosen to protect him today with a raise to the starter’s allowance ($50,000) level while switching to one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, Irving Orozco. Lightly raced and a winner of his only prior two-turn race gate-to-wire, the 5-year-old gelding seems certain to employ similar front-running tactics in a race that projects to have comfortable early splits, so at 12-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a bit of a gamble.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Sam Stormy He's back off about a four-month break after a no-show effort on the dirt, but his career debut on the grass at Kentucky Downs was pretty solid, and he wouldn't be a surprise while getting back on the grass with Lasix for the first time.
#6 More Than Eve He ran okay in that first turf try last out, and he should be in line for a really good go of things while tracking the pace. A little worried that he gives away ground late in all of his races.
#1 Kid Ketchum He debuts for a barn that's hitting at 40% this season, and it'd be no surprise to see this one be live at first asking either. Check him out on the tote and track.
Race Summary Sam Stormy has room to bounce back here while moving back to the turf, and I think he's probably going to find a good spot spying the speed in his first turf route trip.

Fair Grounds - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Shoplifter She's back off the bench after being last seen up the track in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and she did some good work going short early in her career. Wouldn't be a shock to see her fire at this trip while coming back with Lasix for the first time.
#8 Neutralize The price should be more appealing this time around as she exits a dull try at 7/5 last out when facing some of these. Wouldn't be a surprise to see her bounce back here.
#2 Topsy She showed solid pace when wiring a group at first asking earlier this year, but there might be enough pace to keep her honest in the early going here while stepping up to face winners. Talent is there.
Race Summary Shoplifter is Grade III placed and might be ready to go on the big class drop here -- she looks competitive off the layoff today even if the focus of the campaign may be on races a bit longer than this.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Brigadier General Think he might offer a reasonable enough price to jump in while returning off the September break, and he might be the right one to make a big move on the far turn and battle it out.
#9 Crump He makes a lot of sense in here while coming off a couple modest tries at Turfway, as he was very good here in three main-track starts last season and might wake up on the surface switch.
#5 Guntown I've been chasing this guy a bit in recent starts, and he was no threat when second best to a tough chalk in that last one. Think his baseline run keeps him the mix today.
Race Summary Brigadier General gets the call in a fun finale. He's tactical enough to settle off a couple more committed forward players, but he should be in a perfect spot to make an attacking move into or on the far turn. His only local route try wasn't bad....