Saturday 3/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Handicap: Meet the Contenders

March 1, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

Let’s Meet the Contenders for Saturday’s Grade 1 $500,000 Santa Anita Handicap, one of the most storied races in the sport. It’s part of the 1/ST Racing Tour, which stops off at Santa Anita and Gulfstream for 13 combined stakes between the historic venues.

#1 There Goes Harvard (Kazushi Kimura // Michael McCarthy)
Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup winner last summer over this same track and distance, he’s never missed the trifecta in 6 local dirt starts. Off form in his last 2 starts, but was making a similar turf-to-dirt surface switch into his signature Gold Cup score. Jockey-trainer tandem teamed to win the $100,000 Astra Stakes this meet in a 13-1 upset.

#2 Parnelli (Victor Espinoza // John Shirreffs)
Quality Road colt stretches out to a mile and one-quarter for the first time in his 18th career start. Jockey Espinoza is a 3-time winner of the Santa Anita Handicap in 2004, 2018 and last year when teamed with trainer Shirreffs with Express Train. He’s yet to win a stakes race, but his close-up third in the Grade 2 San Pasqual arguably was his best effort.

#3 Newgrange (Frankie Dettori // Phil D’Amato)
Grade 2 San Pasqual winner notched the key local prep for this race on Jan. 28 and seeks a fourth career stakes win. His perfect 3-for-3 Santa Anita record stands out. This will be the longest career attempt for the son of Violence. World-renowned jockey Dettori has 4 stakes wins at the current Classic Meet, including a pair routing on the dirt.

#4 Stilleto Boy (Kent Desormeaux // Ed Moger, Jr.)
Last year’s Big ‘Cap third-place finisher returns to the scene after a third-place run in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, the same path as in 2022. His $1.4 million earned tops this year’s field. Jockey Mike Smith will depart in order to ride Hopper, but veteran jockey Desormeaux reunites and has Santa Anita Handicap victories in 1992 (Best Pal) and 2002 (Milwaukee Brew). He was the regular pilot for this horse during his 2021 campaign.

#5 Defunded (Juan Hernandez // Bob Baffert)
The expected favorite exits a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park, but his signature score came over this track in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in October. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 5 times, but not since Game On Dude’s back-to-back scores in 2013-’14. First or second from the outset of each of his last 7 starts, expect him near the engine again. The handicap highweight at 125 pounds will concede 3-11 pounds to his rivals.

#6 Warrant (Flavien Prat // Brad Cox)
New Orleans winter resident returns west again after last year’s runner-up by a head in the Big ‘Cap. Champion trainer Brad Cox got an allowance prep victory into this son of Constitution at Fair Grounds in January, his only start since last summer. Warrant ran 5 races in 5 different states in 2022, but has not won a stakes race since the 2021 Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby.

#7 Heywoods Beach (Ramon Vazquez // John Sadler)
Not only has the distance specialist won at the mile and one-quarter trip on dirt, but he’s also scored a pair of stakes at a mile and one-half. Trainer Sadler – who was announced Tuesday as a first-time addition to the Hall of Fame ballot – won this race 3 straight years from 2018-’20 with different horses – Accelerate, Gift Box and Combatant.

#8 Hopper (Mike Smith // Bob Baffert)
The least-experienced member of the field is this 4-year-old with only 4 career starts. Early pace player gave way late as the 7-5 favorite in the Grade 2 San Pasqual at 1-1/8 miles and has yet to try the Big ‘Cap distance. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 5 times, but not since Game On Dude’s back-to-back scores in 2013-’14. Mike Smith rode Game On Dude to both of those victories as well as Shared Belief in 2015.

#9 Scarlet Fusion (Edwin Maldonado // Joe Sharp )
Joins Warrant and Proxy as New Orleans invaders for Saturday’s main event. This son of Curlin, who sired 2021 Big ‘Cap winner Idol, will be in search of his first career dirt stakes win. He tallied the Grade 3 Connelly Turf Cup on soft grass at Sam Houston 5 weeks ago. Distance will be no factor as he’s won at a mile and one-half marathon trip both on dirt and turf. He gets in light at 117 pounds on the handicap scale.

#10 Tisquantum (Hector Berrios // Rolando Quinonez)
Six-year-old gelding has made only 6 career starts – none of them farther than one mile – and will be taking a big bite of the apple in the Big ‘Cap. He exits back-to-back victories in starter allowance and allowance miles, last earning a notable 96 Beyer Speed Figure over this track. Plenty of pedigree to run on longer, but it will be a question of class. The field’s lightweight carries just 114 pounds.

#11 Proxy (John Velazquez // Mike Stidham)
Grade 1 Clark Handicap winner looks to bounce back after a disappointing fifth in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup, where he finished 3 lengths behind Santa Anita Handicap rival Defunded and 7 lengths in arrears to winner Art Collector. Well-bred son of Tapit and Spinster winner Panty Raid will race beyond 1-1/8 miles for the first time while making his first start west of New Orleans. Reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode him during the 2021 Triple Crown prep trail.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fountain of Youth Stakes: Meet the Contenders

February 28, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

Let’s Meet the Contenders for Saturday’s Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The key Florida Derby lead-in offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-15-10-5).

#1 General Jim (Luis Saez // Shug McGaughey)
He can become the first horse to win the Swale sprinting and the Fountain of Youth routing. He twice won around 2 turns on turf as a juvenile and draws an advantageous post position with a short run into the clubhouse turn. Jockey Saez won this race in 2014 and ’15 with Wildcat Red and Itsaknockout. Trainer McGaughey saddled Fountain of Youth winners Greatest Honour (2021), Code of Honor (2019) and Orb (2013).

#2 Legacy Isle (Emisael Jaramillo // Rohan Crichton)
Expected pace player has made the front in both the Mucho Macho Man and Holy Bull Stakes this meeting, but was disqualified from victory in the former due to interference and faded to fourth in the latter. Maternal grandson of 2004 Fountain of Youth winner Read the Footnotes. Sire Shackleford was fifth in this race in 2011 before going on to win the Preakness.

#3 Shadow Dragon (Jose Ortiz // Bill Mott)
Surprising Holy Bull runner-up at 34-1 odds, this New York-bred made the leap into open company to excellent reviews. Jockey Jose Ortiz aims for a Fountain of Youth three-peat after victories aboard Greatest Honour (2021) and Simplification (2022). The only jockey ever to do so was Hall of Famer Bill Hartack from 1957-’59. Expect a late rally.

#4 Forte (Irad Ortiz, Jr. // Todd Pletcher)
Tries to become the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to add a Fountain of Youth trophy since Fly So Free in 1990-’91, the only horse to do so. Trainer Pletcher is a 3-time Fountain of Youth winner – Scat Daddy (2007), Eskendereya (2010) and Itsaknockout (2015). Irad Ortiz, Jr. won this race aboard Promises Fulfilled (2018). This elite jockey-trainer combination has 4 wins and 4 seconds from 10 tandem stakes tries at Gulfstream’s current Championship Meet. Typically employs a mid-pack style and strong finish.

#5 Il Miracolo (Edgar Perez // Antonio Sano)
Joins Legacy Isle as the only horses this season to contest the Mucho Macho Man, Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, the trio of routes leading up the Florida Derby. Trainer Sano won this race a year ago with Simplification and in 2017 with Gunnevera. With just 1 win from 7 starts – and finishing off the board in all 3 stakes attempts – this will be one of the longest shots in the race.

#6 Blazing Sevens (Joel Rosario // Chad Brown)
Last year’s Grade 1 Champagne winner makes his first start since a troubled fourth-place bid in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’ll rematch with Forte, each with 6 officially clocked workouts on their ledger. Son of BC Juvy winner and fellow Brown trainee Good Magic, who finished third as the 3-5 favorite in the 2018 Fountain of Youth while coming off the same layoff.

#7 Mage (Javier Castellano // Gustavo Delgado)
The least-experienced Fountain of Youth entrant this year with a lone, winning start on his docket. He’s also the only in this field yet to make a stakes bid. Dominated his debut over 7 furlongs on the front end at 11-1 while flying under the radar. Expect him to be on or near the lead on the stretch-out to 1-1/16 miles, a race where early speed historically has been flattered and many of this year’s top-name players want to finish from farther off the front. Jockey Castellano notched a victory in the 2017 Fountain of Youth aboard Gunnevera. Sire Good Magic, also represented here by Blazing Sevens, was third in this race in 2018.

#8 Rocket Can (Junior Alvarado // Bill Mott)
Successful stakes ascension for the first time when winning the Holy Bull Stakes over the same track and distance on Feb. 4, and once again slated to begin from post 8. Three horses have won the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth – Greatest Honour (2021), Mohaymen (2016) and Booklet (2002) – since the two races were both on the schedule in 1990. Jockey Alvarado guided Mohaymen to victory in the 2016 Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. His only loss around 2 turns was a half-length runner-up at Churchill last fall to Confidence Game, who last week won the Grade 2 $1 million Rebel at Oaklawn.

#9 Cyclone Mischief (Tyler Gaffalione // Dale Romans)
Mystifying non-effort when seventh by nearly a dozen lengths in the Holy Bull as the strong 6-5 favorite. He’s alternated losses with follow-up wins throughout his career, so he’ll be looking for yet another bounce-back bid. One of three sons of top national sire Into Mischief in this field, joining General Jim and Rocket Can. Trainer Romans won this race with Promises Fulfilled (2018). Pressing style could be challenged by wide post position and potential ground loss on the clubhouse turn.

#10 Dangerous Ride (Miguel Vasquez // Carlos David)
Versatile sort owns synthetic surface wins sprinting and routing as well as a dirt sprint win last time out in allowance company. Raced on or near the lead in all 3 victories and has been much less effective when not in the early mix. Extremely difficult assignment from this post position while he makes his graded stakes first rise.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1/ST Racing Tour: Need-to-Know | Saturday, March 4, 2023

February 27, 2023 | By 1/ST BET

What: 1/ST Racing Tour

When: Saturday, March 4, 2023

Where: Gulfstream Park (Hallandale Beach, FL) and Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, CA)

Television: CNBC, 4-6 pm ET

The Skinny: 13 graded stakes races, including 2 major Triple Crown prep races, plus lucrative multi-race wagers

//

Gulfstream Park Featured Races & Wagers

11 am ET | first post | 14 races

Race 5 | $200K Colonel Liam Stakes

Race 6 | $150K Grade 3 The Very One Stakes

Race 8 | $150K Grade 3 Canadian Turf Stakes

Race 9 | $200K Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes

* Race 10 | $200K Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes

** Race 11 | $150K Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes

Race 12 | $200K Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes

Race 13 | $200K Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes

Race 14 | $400K Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes | featuring ’22 champion 2YO Forte

* $500,000-guaranteed late pick 5 pool begins

** $250,000-guaranteed late pick 4 pool begins

//

Santa Anita Park Featured Races & Wagers

3 pm ET | first post | 12 races

Race 5 | $200K Grade 2 Buena Vista Stakes

Race 6 | $400K Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes

Race 7 | mandatory Payout Rainbow 6 begins | carryover $214,356 into this week’s racing

Race 11 | $500K Grade 1 Kilroe Mile Stakes

Race 12 | $500K Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap

//

Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 Wager:

Gulfstream Race 12 | 4:37 pm ET

Santa Anita Race 5 | 4:55 pm ET

Gulfstream Race 13 | 5:09 pm ET

Santa Anita Race 6 | 5:27 pm ET

Gulfstream Race 14 | 5:43 pm ET

//

Tournament: Play in the Ultimate Betting Challenge

Available on-track at Gulfstream and Santa Anita or online at Xpressbet.com | details
Ultimate Betting Challenge 3-4-2023 | Xpressbet

//

Fountain of Youth Stakes Field | Gulfstream | Race 14:

1. General Jim (Luis Saez) | 6-1
2. Legacy Isle (Emisael Jaramillo) | 20-1
3. Shadow Dragon (Jose Ortiz) | 12-1
4. Forte (Irad Ortiz) | 7-5
5. Il Miracolo (Edwin Perez) | 30-1
6. Blazing Sevens (Joel Rosario) | 7-2
7. Mage (Javier Castellano) | 8-1
8. Rocket Can (Junior Alvarado) | 8-1
9. Cyclone Mischief (Tyler Gaffalione) | 12-1
10. Dangerous Ride (Miguel Vasquez) | 30-1

//

Santa Anita Handicap Field | Santa Anita | Race 12:

1. There Goes Harvard (Kazushi Kimura)
2. Parnelli (Victor Espinoza)
3. Newgrange (Frankie Dettori)
4. Stilleto Boy (Kent Desormeaux)
5. Defunded (Juan Hernandez)
6. Warrant (Flavien Prat)
7. Heywoods Beach (Ramon Vazquez)
8. Hopper (Mike Smith)
9. Scarlet Fusion (Edwin Maldonado)
10. Tisquantum (Hector Berrios)
11. Proxy (John Velazquez)

//

Additional Sunday, March 5 Gulfstream Park Note:
Mandatory Payout Rainbow 6 | carryover $1,024,831 into this week’s racing | estimated pool $6 million

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
Searching for value in the Santa Anita Handicap
By: The Turk



Defunded: Benoit
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today. My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus. I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.

Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows. Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower. That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?. Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface. If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.

Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics: Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good? Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun? I'm no gambling whale. I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person. All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun. I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.

Let's get after it!

The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP

So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.

Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class. Good mix of early tactical and late speed. Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January. J Hernandez is up and 26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners. 5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.


Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30 May 2022

A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking. Different race, different field, different point in horse form.

Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year. Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level. Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot. First SA start. Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire. Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.

Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping. Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2. Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here. 4 YO and already $750K earnings. 5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt. Pay attention to tote board.

Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money. Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone. Dangerous. Fast early/solid late speed. Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper. 1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.

There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February. Sharp work on 18 February. 2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes. 6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes. Solid, not spectacular.

Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner. Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA. Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%. Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth. 9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.

And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here. Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run. A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?

6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late. Really comes down to how this one plays out.

I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy. I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later. Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.

I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta. I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.

If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet. I'll be clear and place the $10 bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 The Very One Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
March 3, 2023

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. LIBRETTO (30-1) – Hard to understand the logic of entering this seven-start maiden, who’s placed in only one of those attempts, in a race of this caliber; every principle of handicapping says she’s an automatic toss.

2. BESIDE HERSELF (8-1) – Pletcher trainee usually finds herself on or near the lead, but her stamina at graded stakes level has so far left something to be desired; her smallest margin of defeat at this level was three lengths, in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3) last fall, and that was against fellow three-year-olds; has disappointed at miserly odds in several outings since, and this field is one of the toughest she’s faced yet.

3. LADY ROCKSTAR (7-2) – Both prior starts at the meeting, placings in the Suwannee River (G3) and Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3), were solid efforts, given both were at distances shorter than she likely prefers; although this represents her longest test to date, it’s not a huge stretch from the 9-10 furlongs she was successful at twice last season; perhaps a tough light still from a class perspective, but logical fodder for the vertical exotics at the very least.

4. MYLADY (8-1) – Placed in both filly classics in Germany last season, narrowly losing both, and was only beaten a shade over three lengths in the German Derby (G1) against the boys; don’t think we saw her to best effect in the E.P. Taylor (G1), where she encountered interference at the start and failed to settle as nicely as she had in the German Oaks (G1) one prior; think she’d prefer making one move from behind, if she can work out such a trip; perhaps one that will come on later with additional U.S. experience, but can’t dismiss possibility of Brown striking at a price this time.

5. BROADWAY BOOGIE (20-1) – Has dazzled in a pair of long-distance overnight events, and not surprising high-class connections think now is the time to seek out some black type with this filly, who’s lightly-raced by comparison; guessing the pace will be honest enough, much more so than the pedestrian circumstances she found herself behind at Aqueduct two back, but inexperience at this level likely relegates her to the lower rungs of the exotics at best.

6. TRANSIENT (6-1) – A solid record so far since joining the Saffie Joseph barn, especially on the turf; effort in the La Prevoyante (G3) was particularly strong, as she found only the highly promising Personal Best too good, and that by only a small margin after Gaffalione was forced to hand encourage her after losing the crop in mid-stretch; has turned in a couple maintenance works since, and looms a top-three contender again.

7. HIGHER TRUTH (5-1) – One of the more capable and unlucky three-year-old turf fillies in 2021, when she missed in four consecutive graded stakes by less than a length, several to stablemates in the Chad Brown barn; sidelined for pretty much all of her four-year-old campaign, though she did manage to squeeze in a facile win against N2X foes last July over this distance at Belmont; surely a legitimate threat if she can produce anything close to her best off such a long spell, but caution advisable if price dips too low.

8. ENSEMBLE (8-1) – The second of two from the Walsh barn enters off a blowout win against entry-level allowance foes, albeit one transferred from turf to Tapeta; that appears to be her preferred surface, as she’s 0-for-9 over the grass with only four placings; perhaps has found her sweet spot at these longer distances, but still taking a cautious view as she returns to turf and takes a significant class hike.

9. FLYING FORTRESS (20-1) – Arguably ran to the betting public’s expectations in both prior stakes appearances, and this will be her most difficult test yet from a class perspective; despite her gate-to-wire allowance score at Colonial Downs three back, she’s been less consistent since adopting that style, compared to her closing tactics she had earlier in her career; perhaps would be more effective with a re-adoption of the latter as there appears to be plenty of others with some early foot; regardless, improvement needed.

10. VIRGINIA JOY (5-2) – Her non-effort in the Breeders’ Cup was easily her worst since coming to the U.S., and looks like a tossout; otherwise, she appears to have all the tools to make a serious run at defending her title in this race, which she won last season by a length from off the pace; her later wins were decidedly different, both achieved in wire-to-wire fashion, including an upset of War Like Goddess in the Flower Bowl (G2); her versatility is an asset, though she can be enigmatic at times and thus might not be the most attractive wagering prospect at odds likely to be much shorter than her ML.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 Rebel Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
February 24, 2023

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. VERIFYING (2-1) – Champagne (G1) runner-up had no luck from the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but his return to action in a Jan. 14 allowance over this strip was a tour de force; not only was it achieved by a wide margin and worthy of a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, but he was flattered by the subsequent allowance wins by returning rival Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River; son of Justify has the scope to become the barn’s leading Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with a repeat or better of that effort.

2. POWERFUL (20-1) – The first of three from Asmussen; has achieved all of his success sprinting to date, including a one-length victory in a modest renewal of the Ed Brown S. at Churchill; his only two-turn try, in a top-heavy renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), was a bust from start to finish, but so poor it probably wasn’t indicative of his actual ability; still, he’s conceding recency to all of the major players and has a number of lengths to improve from a speed figure perspective.

3. RED ROUTE ONE (10-1) – Plenty of things to like from a class perspective; third in a key renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity last fall, he didn’t have much luck when fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and last time was easily second best in the Southwest (G3) behind the runaway Arabian Knight; the possibility of another off track perhaps not ideal for him as his record in such conditions is mixed, but clearly a horse not to be discounted regardless of the price; to win, he’ll need to take another significant step forward and create some of his own luck.

4. GUN PILOT (8-1) – No match for Verifying two back, but showed an ability to stalk-and-pounce in the allowance follow-up and turned in what was a visually impressive win; it wasn’t especially fast, though, and returning rival Bourbon Bash was a fairly exposed sort going in; nonetheless, this colt has done little wrong to this point and has room for further improvement now that he’s proven to be more versatile in his running style.

5. GIANT MISCHIEF (5-2) – Winner of his first two starts, including an impressive Keeneland allowance score, and stakes debut in the Springboard Mile at Remington a decent try despite a slow start and a middle move he eventually couldn’t sustain; some doubts remain whether he’ll be as effective around two turns as he is around one, given dam was a G2-winning sprinter, but this distance seems within his scope for the time being and he’s clearly fast enough to contend with these; recent worktab adds to his appeal.

6. REINCARNATE (7-2) – A surprise winner of the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita, which was basically a Baffert stable scrimmage, and in the process he bested Newgate, who went on to capture the Robert B. Lewis (G3) but is now off the Kentucky Derby trail with an injury; the possibility of an off track probably helps him, given his pedigree and early foot, though not necessarily optimistic about his chances going slightly farther if he once again is pressured from the start; regardless, a likely underlay on the board.

7. CONFIDENCE GAME (15-1) – Defeated future Holy Bull (G3) winner Rocket Can and subsequent Withers (G3) scorer Hit Show in that Churchill allowance two back, and last time raced wide before tiring through the stretch of the Lecomte (G3), which was won by the nice colt Instant Coffee; runner-up there was Two Phil’s, who finished third in last week’s Risen Star (G2); if he can work out a better trip here, he could produce his best run yet; he certainly has to as his figs to date are relatively light.

8. TALLADEGA (30-1) – Despite three modest efforts to start his career, he wound up a lukewarm favorite last out and pulled out a gutsy half-length win after leading from the start; obviously wasn’t much substance to that field if he was the public choice, and this dive into deeper waters is a tall order by the looks of things; likely the longest shot on the board.

9. EVENT DETAIL (30-1) – Overcame a wide draw to break his maiden last out going a mile over Turfway’s Tapeta track, and is ambitiously spotted against winners for the first time; lone prior try over the dirt perhaps not a true bill as it was his debut, around one turn, and included multiple next-out winners; still, it’s a tough task, even more so if he falls far back early over a track that will potentially be wet.

10. BOURBON BASH (20-1) – Took a useful drop in class last time, though wound up running into Gun Pilot; while a much more encouraging effort than he’d shown in quite a while, it doesn’t necessarily stamp him as a possible upsetter, especially as some of the rivals he’s lost to in minor stakes of late will also be longshots in this spot.

11. FROSTED DEPARTURE (20-1) – Although his effort in the Southwest was easily his best to date around two turns, he still proved no match for the exciting Arabian Knight and was also two lengths adrift of runner-up Red Route One; with 10 starts already in the rear view mirror, he’s well exposed compared to others; another minor share likely the best case scenario.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Liam's Champ 7-5 C C Brown M Franco
2 #6 Treaty Obligation 1-1 C C Brown M Franco
3 #5 Market Alert 7-2 R Atras K Carmouche
4 #2 Capella 5-2 B H Cox F Geroux
5 #8 Advanced Strategy 5-2 R R Rodriguez M Franco
6 #6 Forty One Tales 8-1 P M Serpe J Lezcano
7 #7 Rotknee 5-2 M J Maker M Franco
8 #6 Nakatomi 3-1 W A Ward D Davis
9 #11 Slip Mahoney 5-1 B H Cox T McCarthy
10 #6 Victorious Wave 6-1 R Atras M Franco

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #7 All Worked Up 6-5 A Farrior R Latchman
2 #7 Odina 4-1 O L Figgins, III F Peltroche
3 #4 Great Spirit 2-1 C G Pickett J Montano
4 #7 Marvella Nasty 9-5 A Farrior A Bocachica
5 #4 Jalebi Baby 5-2 A Farrior A Bocachica
6 #6 Officer Appeal 6-1 S L Jackson W Cullum
7 #9 Best Virginia 7-2 J Contreras W Ho
8 #6 Dulcimer Dame 4-5 A Farrior A Bocachica
9 #1 Unbridled Irish 5-1 A Farrior L R Rivera, Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Stone Alliance 5-1 L J Cuccia T S Albert
2 #5 Zydeco Music 5-2 S Wilson R Gutierrez
3 #2 A G's Charlotte 4-1 P G West M Pedroza, Jr.
4 #3 Smokey Harbor 4-1 J M Camejo J J Urdaneta
5 #2 Beleout 8-5 C Dandridge Jr. J Graham
6 #6 Who Took the Money 4-5 W B Calhoun D L Parker
7 #1 Bo Cruz 5-2 A M Stall, Jr. J Riquelme
8 #5 Andthewinneris 5-2 W M Catalano C J Lanerie
9 #2 Secret Vista 5-2 J Jeansonne J L Rodriguez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fonner Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Trouble in Red 2-1 M Lemburg A Martinez
2 #1 Run Brinlee Run 8-1 S H Becker K Roman
3 #1 Candenza 2-1 K Martinez A Martinez
4 #2 Willie the Man 8-5 M N Hibdon R Morales
5 #4 Thornish 9-2 D C Anderson J A Medina
6 #3 Yayasgotmoregame 5-2 G Thompson B McNeil
7 #2 Preacher 9-2 T D Rushton D Cardoso
8 #2 Scooter's Boy 3-1 D C Anderson N Haar
9 #1 Rome 3-1 S Condon R Martinez
10 #3 Hulen 4-1 I V Gonzalez K Roman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Tiger's Arrow 9-5 D W Baker I Orozco
2 #5 Auspicious Style 8-5 A Mathis I Orozco
3 #3 Creative Motion 9-5 J R Thomas E A Roman
4 #2 Majestic Gig 7-2 J R Thomas K Radke
5 #3 Crystal Proof 5-2 R France W Antongeorgi III
6 #4 Otter Pop 8-5 J Wong W Antongeorgi III
7 #2 Curvy Curls 4-1 B W Galvin W Antongeorgi III
8 #1 De la Luna 7-2 Q Howey K Radke
9 #5 She's Resilient 6-1 G Papaprodromou E A Roman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #10 Meetmeinkingston 9-2 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
2 #7 Image of Love 5-2 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
3 #9 Eyes On Target 8-1 M J Maker E Jaramillo
4 #10 Illustrated 5-2 T A Pletcher L Saez
5 #9 Dude N Colorado 3-1 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
6 #10 Virginia Joy 5-2 C C Brown I Ortiz, Jr.
7 #2 White Abarrio 6-5 S A Joseph, Jr. T Gaffalione
8 #6 Shadow Sphinx 8-1 M J Maker T Gaffalione
9 #7 Cairo Consort 3-1 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
10 #7 Charge It 4-5 T A Pletcher L Saez
11 #3 Speak of the Devil 7-5 C C Brown I Ortiz, Jr.
12 #3 Red Carpet Ready 2-1 G R Arnold, II L Saez
13 #2 Master Piece 5-1 S A Joseph, Jr. T Gaffalione
14 #4 Forte 7-5 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Northern Thunder 2-1 H I McMahon J Barbosa
2 #1 Majestic Frontier 9-5 J J Robb X Perez
3 #7 Collect Redemption 8-5 T L Keefe J C Alvelo
4 #5 Hot N Spicy Love 7-5 K Magee J Rodriguez
5 #10 Red Wine Time 5-1 R Sanchez-Salomon K Gomez
6 #5 Rominski 9-2 M J Trombetta J Barbosa
7 #5 Putthepastbehind 5-1 G E Brooks J Barbosa
8 #6 H P Moon 9-5 L Gaudet J Rodriguez
9 #2 Blueberry Indygo 3-1 B W Perkins, Jr. F Boyce

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Los Alamitos Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Restless Rambler 3-1 O Heredia J E Sanchez
2 #8 Face of Grace 20-1 A M Aquino B Harvey
3 #5 Malakai Moxie 2-1 S Naranjo C Ortega
4 #4 Being Blessed 3-1 S Morfin E Payeras
5 #3 Jb Brown Eyes 5-2 P C Jones H R Lopez
6 #7 Fearless Moon 5-2 J G Aleman J R Ayala
7 #5 Cartel Kisses 8-5 M H Taylor R S Vallejo
8 #1 R Ladys Dynasty 5-2 E D Willis J D Brooks
9 #2 Candys Special Power 4-1 M Arrossa A R Cervantes
10 #1 Koalition 2-1 M H Taylor J M Nicasio

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Louisiana Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Ms Apolitical Ivory 6-1 P L Clemons L Rodriguez
2 #7 Tf Mr Rip 12-1 J L Sanchez III E Sanchez
3 #5 Jessah Cervza 7-2 J M Marquez V M Urieta, Jr.
4 #2 Hijack a Train 9-2 J Ponce N Duran
5 #3 Apollitical Focus 9-2 W J Simien, Jr. R Ramirez, Jr.
6 #3 Kp Paintmeasymphony 2-1 K L Roberts, Sr. B J Baca
7 #4 Double X Perry 10-1 F Valdez U Luna
8 #5 Mr Dohick 7-2 M Pizana A Alvarez
9 #3 Roundin Third 9-5 F Valdez R Ramirez, Jr.
10 #2 Big Red Train 9-5 G Garza, Jr. R Cabrera
11 #5 Oak Train Special 5-2 F Valdez U Luna
12 #7 Tjs Dashn Train 2-1 D Breaux L F Ruiz