Saturday 3/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #7 Lamutanaatty 9-5 R Moquett R Bejarano
2 #9 Full Impact 5-2 R Diodoro C A Torres
3 #2 Kentucky Bourbon 3-1 R Diodoro C A Torres
4 #8 House Wrecker 8-1 I Green N Juarez
5 #10 The Heights 8-1 L Schultz F Arrieta
6 #8 Let's Duet 7-5 K G McPeek C A Torres
7 #8 Summer Shoes 9-5 T H Swearingen C Bailey
8 #9 Frosted Grace 5-2 R Diodoro C A Torres
9 #7 Gar Hole 1-1 J A Ortiz R Santana, Jr.
10 #12 Tivy 4-1 S M Asmussen R Santana, Jr.

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Racing Dudes Sam Houston Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Texas Skywalker 8-5 J R Caldwell L J Luzzi
2 #7 Poseidons Wave 2-1 J R Clary W Hamilton
3 #8 Wohlgemuth 6-1 S M Asmussen S Elliott
4 #4 Gold Baron 5-2 S M Asmussen S Elliott
5 #8 Cosmic Soul 6-1 S H Davis J L Alvarez
6 #2 Resolutionist 9-5 J S Offolter J L Alvarez
7 #10 Mor Peanuts 15-1 M J Willis S Elliott
8 #8 With Verve 7-2 S M Asmussen S Elliott
9 #3 Flash of Genius 9-5 S H Davis E Valdez-Jiminez

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Racing Dudes Santa Anita Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Conclude 5-2 P D'Amato F Prat
2 #7 Hennys Crazy Train 6-1 J W Sadler R A Vazquez
3 #1 Cherubic Factor 5-2 P Eurton L Dettori
4 #4 Kangaroo Court 9-5 T Yakteen F Prat
5 #4 Kitty Kitana 4-1 P D'Amato F Prat
6 #2 National Treasure 3-1 T Yakteen J R Velazquez
7 #8 Lincoln Hawk 7-2 P D'Amato U Rispoli
8 #10 Stop and a Tres 3-1 D F O'Neill E A Maldonado
9 #4 Carmen Miranda 4-1 P D'Amato F Prat
10 #2 Joe Don Looney 12-1 M Glatt A Aguilar
11 #6 Hong Kong Harry 9-5 P D'Amato F Prat
12 #5 Defunded 7-2 B Baffert J J Hernandez

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Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Danz At Colfax 9-2 D Morales L R Rodriguez
2 #1 Incitatus Moon 3-1 G Quinonez J E Ortiz
3 #4 Gym N Jam 3-1 F I Danley S Becerra, Jr.
4 #3 Kj Wildthang 3-1 W T Giles A A Ramos
5 #7 High Flying Hero 2-1 J J Carrete A Silva
6 #10 Dale Yeah 12-1 L J Gutierrez N Garcia, Jr.
7 #8 Empty Promise 12-1 M A Flores S Becerra, Jr.
8 #4 Wood Dee Queen 4-1 F I Danley S Becerra, Jr.
9 #2 Devons Cartel 5-2 C Crawford A Hernandez

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Racing Dudes Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Ripley Effect 3-2 K O'Connell A A Gallardo
2 #1 Patience Worth 4-5 E G Harty P Morales
3 #5 She's So Bearrish 6-5 M Dini S Camacho
4 #3 Swill Merchant 3-2 D Fisher A Quinonez
5 #10 Whiskeymac 3-1 H G Motion A Suarez
6 #3 Kingstown 9-5 J G Arnett S Camacho
7 #2 Yamato 9-5 M Sancal A A Gallardo
8 #6 Pharaoh Fancy Pant 6-1 A Spieth S Spieth
9 #1 Peep's Day 7-2 A F Rini D Centeno

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Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Parley Street 4-1 C Ferguson E Garcia
2 #7 Burnley 2-1 M Palma A Marti
3 #7 Move Over 4-1 J P Silva F H Da Silva
4 #8 Timberlake Gage 4-1 L Baze H Hernandez
5 #7 Reckoning Day 4-1 B L Woolley, Jr. H Hernandez
6 #2 Joy in the Battle 5-2 J R Evans L Negron
7 #5 Older Brother 7-2 J Rosales A Valdes
8 #9 Lexington Humor 9-2 D Morgan D P Vergara

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Racing Dudes Turfway Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #7 Atlantic Strike 5-1 M Simms, Jr. L Machado
2 #5 Vettori Kin 5-2 J F D'Angelo G Corrales
3 #9 Veritable 6-1 C DeVaux R M Hernandez
4 #6 Noble Jon 3-1 G Garcia W A Rodriguez
5 #9 Push Button 8-5 M J Maker G Corrales
6 #3 Botanical 8-5 B H Cox C Landeros
7 #9 York Tavern 12-1 C DeVaux L Machado
8 #8 Miranda Rights 8-1 M E Casse R M Hernandez
9 #9 Azamana Empire 7-2 A M Meah L Machado

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - San Felipe | March 4, 2023

Mar. 02, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $400,000 San Felipe (G2), Santa Anita – Race 6

The San Felipe is a [50-20-15-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Tim Yakteen has five horses in the field with four that were just transferred from Bob Baffert and one that was with him throughout his career. (3) Practical Move is the horse that Yakteen trained from his maiden races to his victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) over three horses from the Baffert barn. He has been off since that December win from a stalking position and should get the right set up in the San Felipe with a fast pace expected. (8) Geaux Rocket Ride was a winner of his debut race at Santa Anita at the end of January while racing on the lead and winning by almost six-lengths. Richard Mandella brings him back in an ambitious spot and he would only do that knowing that this horse can compete. (7) Hejazi was purchased for $3.5 million as a 2-year-old and finally broke his maiden in his fourth try in January after running third in the American Pharoah (G1). (2) National Treasure won his first start in September at Del Mar and then hit the board in three Grade 1 races behind three talented horses in Cave Rock, Forte, and Reincarnate. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 2, 7, 8. Trifecta box: 2, 3, 7, 8

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - Gotham | March 4, 2023

Mar. 02, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $300,000 Gotham (G3), Aqueduct – race 9

The Gotham is a [50-20-15-10-5] points qualifier on the road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The full field of 14 looks like the kind of race where the winner will be one that works out the best trip. Four of the favored horses drew post positions on the far outside including two from the Brad Cox barn, the undefeated Recruiter and the Jerome winner Lugan Knight. A fast pace is expected with much of that speed coming from the outside post-positions. (5) Carmel Road is one of the horses that was transferred from Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen so that he can be Kentucky Derby eligible. Carmel Road was last seen running second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) where he was the best of three Baffert runners that day. He is expected to sit in the second flight of horses behind the pace setters which should provide an ideal set-up. (10) Lugan Knight was the winner of the Jerome at Aqueduct in his last start and should get a similar trip as Carmel Road. (13) Eyeing Clover is undefeated in two starts for Brad Cox with two front-end victories including an allowance at Fair Grounds by almost 10 lengths. (14) Recruiter is undefeated in four starts including two stakes races at Laurel Park and Parx Racing. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 5, 10, 13, 14. Trifecta box: 5, 10, 13, 14.

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - John Battaglia Memorial | March 4, 2023

Mar. 02, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $300,000 John Battaglia Memorial, Turfway Park, Race 8, 9:25 p.m. Eastern

(3) Gilmore was a good second on a synthetic track out West in the El Camino Real Derby. Ships east to see if he can pick up Derby points and looks best in this spot. (6) American Speed is capable of giving trainer Brad Cox yet another win in a Derby prep. Was second without much pace help in a Turfway stakes and should be the main rival. (7) Eyes On the King was a maiden winner on Tapeta at Gulfstream and figures to be able to handle this surface as well. (4) Scoobie Quando was reluctant to load last time and should turn in an improved effort if he behaves. Betting strategy: 6 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 3-4-6-7.

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - Fountain of Youth | March 4, 2023

Mar. 02, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, Gulfstream Park, Race 14, 5:43 p.m. Eastern

(6) Blazing Sevens lacked a strong closing kick in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but seems to have more talent than that. He has trained sharply for his 3-year-old debut and Chad Brown figures to have him on edge for a big effort here. (4) Forte was a worthy 2-year-old champion and came into the year in the understandable role as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Yet he may have already racked up enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby and may not be ready for a top effort. At the expected odds, using him underneath in the exotics offers more value than betting him to win. (8) Rocket Can was a sharp winner of the Holy Bull over the track and that experience could give him edge over the other top contenders who are returning from layoffs. (1) General Jim was sharpened in a sprint stakes and should relish a return to two turns. Betting strategy: 6 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 1-4-6-8.

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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 4

Mar. 02, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

6th race – (10) Virginia Joy did not flash her usual speed in the Breeders’ Cup but won this race last year after a layoff and can serve up an encore today. (2) Beside Herself tired last time at a longer distance and should be suited by this trip. (6) Transient missed by a neck last time and should be in the picture once again. (4) Mylady has put in bullet works for her debut with Brown and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-10.

8th race – (3) Emmanuel was a sharp winner last time out at Tampa after a layoff. Can make it two in a row if he duplicates that try here. (10) Steady On will welcome a return to turf. (1) English Bee won by a neck last time and will be tough to handle from the rail. (6) Shadow Sphinx should be closing quickly at the end here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-10.

10th race – (7) Charge It (C) dropped from 1-2 to 1-5 and won easily after a lengthy layoff. Seems primed for another big effort in this spot. (6) Endorsed comes off a stakes win at a mile here and shapes up as the one to fear. (8) O Captain has been absent since Derby Day but is training nicely for his return. (4) Simplification has extensive experience in Grade 1 stakes and gets some class relief today. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-7-8. Doubles: 4-6-7-8 with 1-2-3-11.

11th race – (3) Speak of the Devil disappointed in her second US start and then headed to the sidelines. If she runs back to her American debut, she will be a big factor here. (2) Sweet Enough set the pace in the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf and could be tough to collar here. (1) Faith in Humanity seems primed for a strong showing in this field. (11) Sweet Dani Girl has enough speed to offset the outside post and be a factor here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-11.

13th race – (10) Value Engineering was a game second in a Grade 2 stakes here and should make amends for that setback. (1) Highest Honors may get a boost from the rail and looms a top threat. (2) Master Piece had some traffic issues in the Pegasus Turf and can make his presence felt. (7) Astronaut will be dangerous if he can blast off and control the pace. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-10.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(7) Charge It A, 2/5 10 GP Looked good in his comeback race

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Aqueduct Hotlist - March 4

Mar. 02, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (3) Liam’s Champ (A) hopped at the start of her second start, got stuck behind a wall of horses, and got third after a hole eventually opened. (5) Pitch Clock will make her debut for the team of Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. (2) Nobleandgreenough is the name of a prep school in New England who makes her career first start for Rob Atras. (1) Accel Rose is another firster for Rob Atras that is out of a dam that has produced two winners from four to start.

3rd race [OC 62k/N2X, 1 mi] – (2) Uncle Moonlight (B) tossed his head at the start last time and got taken up early. He rushed up to get the lead but faded to third. (6) Kinetic Sky finished in the top three in his last five starts including the last two which were in N3X allowances, so he drops in for a tag for first time in four starts. He has never finished off the board in five starts at Aqueduct. (4) Milton the Monster got outrun in the Toboggan (G3) and now drops back to an optional claimer for the $62,500 tag where he won twice. (3) Classier was moved from Bob Baffert to Brittany Russell. His last two starts in California were bad but he is a past Grade 3 winner.

4th race [Busher Invitational, 1 mi] – (3) Ziaerati (A) was an easy winner of her debut race by almost 10 lengths beating a horse that came back to win her next start. Her winning speed figure was the highest of any horse in this field. (6) Asset Purchase won her first race by eight lengths at odds of 7-2 for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. (2) Capella is unbeaten in two starts for Brad Cox in two races on the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park as the favorite both times. (5) Shidabhuti is also unbeaten in two starts with closing moves but she is from the connections of Chad Brown and Peter Brant.

5th race [Clm 25000, 1 mi] – (8) Advanced Strategy (D) was claimed from her last two starts for $45,000 and was bet down from 6-2 to 5-2 and now drops down to a $25,000 claimer. (4) Optic Way (B) pressed a fast pace while racing wide on a track that was favoring the inside paths and had the lead but faded. The NJ-bred was claimed from her last two starts. (9) Jalen Journey will drop down to his lowest level as a winner 10 times in his career for trainer Norman Cash who is always a threat to win. (3) My Friends Beer was claimed from 2 out of 3 races, last time for $16,000 when he was second.

Best bets: Liam’s Champ (1st); Ziaerati (4th). Best value: Uncle Moonlight (3rd); Advanced Strategy (5th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 3- and includes the Busher

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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 4, 2023

Mar. 02, 2023

Race 6 at Santa Anita | Saturday March 4 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

San Felipe Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

The San Felipe Stakes is the last prep for the Santa Anita Derby next month and it offers the first chance for a number of horses to get Road to the Derby points, particularly four horses formerly in the Baffert barn – National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7), Fort Bragg (9) and Mr Fisk (11). In spite of that, only two of those can run well enough to win in my opinion, namely Hejazi and National Treasure.

With that in mind I’ll start with a horse trained by Hall-of-Fame conditioner Dick Mandella. That is Geaux Rocket Ride (8), who won his only start, a sprint, on January 29. Going from maiden to stakes as three year olds isn’t easy but it is easier at that time in history, particularly on the west coast and in this field, where SIX of the 11 horses exit maiden races, one other broke his maiden just one before last and a couple of the rest are overmatched. On the other hand, Geaux Rocket Ride appears to be just the horse to make the jump up from maiden to “Road to the Derby” stakes, and Mandella did the SAME THING with Omaha Beach in 2016 when the colt won the Rebel Stakes in only the second start of his career. This colt is bred to adore two turns as he’s by Candy Ride out of an Uncle Mo Mare and the 101 Equibase Speed Figure was fantastic as it was the same figure as National Treasure earned when third and beaten a length in the Sham Stakes three weeks earlier, better than the 98 figure Chase the Chaos (1) earned winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate two weeks later and not too dissimilar to the 105 figure likely co-favorite Hejazi (with National Treasure) earned breaking his maiden at the same six furlong trip two weeks before Geaux Rocket Ride won. In addition to Mandella going from maiden winner to stakes winner with Omaha Beach, he also saddled Soothsay to win the Santa Anita Oaks two years ago off a maiden win. With Prat riding back and with a very sharp six furlong workout since raced, Geaux Rocket Ride gets top billing in this race.

National Treasure (2) was returning from two months off in the Sham on January 8 so may have improving to do. He finished second behind stablemate Cave Rock in the American Pharoah Stakes over the track last October then third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where Cave Rock was second and Forte the winner. He earned 99 and 100 figures before the layoff than a 101 figure two months ago so improvement is forecast and Sham winner Reincarnate finished a troubled third in the Rebel last week while runner-up Newgate won the Robert B. Lewis before going on the sidelines with an injury. Don’t expect value for win bets, however, as National Treasure was the 6 to 5 betting favorite in that race.

Hejazi (7) took four tries to break his maiden but one of those was then third in the American Pharoah behind stablemates Cave Rock and National Treasure, and when returning off a three month layoff on January 15 he ran a career-best race with a 105 figure. Granted it was in a sprint, but Baffert moved Taiba to the Yakteen barn off a maiden last year to take the Santa Anita Derby so Hejazi is another contender, but also not a good win bet at very likely low odds.

A horse with price potential to fill out a quartet of possible win contenders here is Skinner (10), who won’t be disadvantaged by the outside post as he comes from behind. He returned from three months off on 2/12 at a mile and ran as if he had not been off a bit, rallying from sixth to draw off easily by three lengths at the end Trainer Shirreffs did well with a similar pattern in 2020 when Honor A.P. finished second in this race off a maiden win. He’s likely to be ignored in the wagering relative to the ex-Baffert trainees and could post the upset off a 94 figure plus second off the layoff improvement. It must also be noted he’s the ONLY horse in the field with a two turn win last out this year on conventional dirt except Mr. Fisk (who is disadvantaged from the extreme outside).

Win bets:

I will consider win bets on Geaux Rocket Ride (8) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

I will consider a second, smaller win bet, on Skinner (10) at odds of 9 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Geaux Rocket Ride (8) over National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10).

National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10) over Geaux Rocket Ride (8) for a smaller amount than the exacta above.

Trifecta:

Geaux Rocket Ride (8) over ALL over National Treasure (2), Hejazi (7) and Skinner (10). When played in conjunction with the first of the two exactas above, this covers all possibilities if Geaux Rocket Ride wins and if any of the other three finish second or third. If two of the three finish second AND third, we win both bets

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/4/23

March 4, 2023

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Conclude
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This race has been shortened to five and one-half furlongs over the flat course. Conclude did everything but win in his debut when winding up second (beaten a half-length) to a more experienced colt after displaying excellent speed before weakening in final 50 yards. With that bit of experience behind him, the son of Collected should be fitter and tougher for a barn that has solid stats with the second-time starter angle. He’s had four easy breezes to tick him over in the interim, so with Flavian Prat riding him back, the Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore seems solid in a race that is likely to have modest early fractions. We’ll take anywhere near his morning line of 5/2 in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Unwritten Code
Backups/savers: 6-Charlotte Harbor

Forecast: Unwritten Code has won her last four starts and is getting faster by the race. Three of the four victories were blowouts, including a five length romp last month in a state-bred first level allowance race, but she remains eligible to this starter’s allowance condition with speed figures that give her a strong chance to extend her winning streak. If there’s a concern, it’s that she is going from a cozy outside draw to the sometimes treacherous rail, so she’ll have leave cleanly to secure her coveted front running position. Charlotte Harbor is the most dangerous closer in the field and should be included on your ticket, at least as a backup. Back sprinting where she might be most effective, the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly has improved considerably since changing barns last summer, and if our top pick gets pressured early the daughter of Munnings might be heard from late.

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RACE 3: Post: 12:58 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-King Apollo
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This race has been shortened to five and one-half furlongs over the flat course. King Apollo was a tad unlucky when rallying after a slow start to finish a game second in a similar starter allowance ($50,000) turf sprint in his first outing since last May and with only slight improvement this prototype late running turf sprinter can be along in time for a stable that has superior stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle. The son of Palace Malice switches to Johnny V., has a strong and healthy work pattern since raced, and seems sure to deliver a forward move after producing a career top speed figure last time out. Let’s take a stand and make the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:24 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kangaroo Court
Backups/Savers: 3-Bus Buzz

Forecast: Kangaroo Court was one of the most impressive maiden winners last summer at Del Mar when he destroyed state-bred foes like a future stakes performer. This will be his first start since, but the way the son of Dad’s Caps has been training he should return at least as good as he left. The Tim Yakteen-trained gelding gets Lasix and Flavian Prat and is drawn outside the other main speed (Bus Buzz), so the option is there to either pop and go or stalk and pounce. Bus Buzz graduated at first asking with a huge number by eight widening lengths last month from Catalina Eddy, who returned to frank the form when winning his next start in solid fashion. Edwin Maldonado stays aboard ‘Buzz, and as a noted speed rider he won’t be waiting around for anyone. Both should be included on your ticket, but our main punch will go to Kangaroo Court.

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RACE 5: Post: 1:55 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Quatroelle; 2-Macadamia; 1-Closing Remarks
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Buena Vista Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares is a typical grass grab bag matching runners who know each other well and seem to take turns beating one another. So, whose turn will it be today? Quattroelle just won the Megahertz Stakes-G3 over this course and distance last month with a furious late kick into the teeth of slow fractions in what certain was a career top performance. If she runs back to that race, she can repeat, though it must be pointed out that despite having four lifetime victories on her resume (all over the local lawn), she’s never registered back-to-back wins. Macadamia looked good winning a second level allowance race here in early February with a career top speed figure and should be prominent throughout in a race that might not have much early pace. The Brazilian import is progressing while acclimating and could easily step forward again. Closing Remarks is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and should turn in her usual honest effort. She lacks a true turn of foot but will be in the fray throughout and have every chance. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with a slight preference on top to Quattroelle.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:27 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Skinner; 3-Practical Moon
Backups/savers: 2-National Treasure; 7-Hejazi; 8-Geaux Rocket Ride

Forecast: We’ll spread the San Felipe Stakes-G2, a contentious 3-year-old prep for Derby-aged runners and one that has a volatile pace projection that makes the race shape hard to predict. The two committed speeds – Hejazi and Geaux Rocket Ride –could possibly hook up early, and since neither one really wants to be rated the early fractions could be quite fast. If the splits are hot (say, :46 and change or even quicker), both may have a difficult time seeing out the trip. The beneficiary of this scenario could be the recent hot maiden winner Skinner, who settled off the pace, rallied wide and won with plenty left in a fast, highly rated mile affair in his first start since last fall. Clearly a better type now, the son of Curlin has breezed very impressively since his win and can be expected to step forward again despite the obvious raise in class. Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 winner Practical Joke is another that continues to move in the right direction. He’s had five previous runs – a solid foundation for what should be a rugged sophomore campaign – and has looked extremely sharp in recent workouts to indicate he's ready to produce another forward move. National Treasure has finished in the frame in all four career outings with legitimate numbers and his stalking style should keep him free of trouble, but after just failing under pressure at 3/5 in the four-runner Sham Stakes-G3, he may not be totally trustworthy. Our wagering strategy is to prefer the second flight runners, using both on the main ticket in our rolling exotics and then pressing with extra tickets keying Skinner on top.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Carmelita’s Man; 8-Lincoln Hawk; 4-Time to Party
Backups/savers: 1-Flashiest

Forecast: This inscrutable second level allowance optional claimer has several runners that legitimately can win, so how aggressive you may want to attack may be dictated by what your budget will allow. Carmelita’s Man always gives his best, having finished first or second in 13 of 23 career starts, but he’s a deep closer and therefore pace dependent. This race most likely will have creepy-crawler earlier splits, so his task will be difficult. The same can be said for Lincoln Hawk, who is just 2-for-17 in his career, but at least those two victories were accomplished over the local lawn. Time to PartyFlashiest didn’t fire in a similar spot last time out but his closing runner-up performance two races back in the San Gabriel S.-G2 charts very well in this spot.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Snapp Daddy; 10-Stop and a Tres
Backups/Savers: 6-Vinny the Coin

Forecast: Snapp Daddy surfaces in a claimer after two runs vs. conditional maiden allowance foes and may have found his winning level in an extended sprint that looks fairly weak on paper. The Peter Eurton-trained colt finished a reasonable sixth behind Henry Q. in his last start and was flattered when that colt returned to win the Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland Park on Tuesday by nearly 15 lengths. He’ll face nobody even remotely good as ‘Henry today. Stop and a Tres shows steadily rising speed figures and with another forward move today should be the one to fear most. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Vinny the Coin, a first time Lasix user and first time gelding, has been freshened since November and definitely has enough early speed to be on or near the lead against this group. He was disappointing as the beaten choice in his last start, but his debut wasn’t bad and if repeated today under Flavian Prat should give him a good chance to at least hit the board.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Honey Jar; 4-Carmen Miranda
Backups/savers: 1-Runninwiththeboyz

Forecast: Honey Jar couldn’t quite stay a mile despite an ideal front-running trip in her most recent start so she is wisely returned to a sprint in this first level allowance Hillside dash that offers a favorable race flow. The lightly raced mare projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout, and while she’s always been vulnerable close home the daughter of Kantharos may be able to stick this one out. Carmen Miranda seems likely to enjoy a smooth stalking trip and is the one to fear most. Second in a fast turf sprint over the flat course last month, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly retains Flavian Prat and is solid in the speed figure department. Runninwiththeboyz seeks her fourth straight win, though she’ll have to do so from the disadvantage rail draw. Genuine, versatile, and effective at any trip, the daughter of Liam’s Map likely will settle in the second flight and then accelerate when asked crossing the dirt. She’s a tad shy on numbers but shows a rising pattern, and in just her sixth career start could easily be this good with another forward move.

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RACE 10: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Synthesis
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: New York shipper Synthesis, a five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, returns from the East for this starter allowance ($25,000) extended sprint and looks ideally spotted to cash in right off the plane. The David Jacobson owned and trained gelding has numbers at Aqueduct that would bury this field, so if he reproduces his best form and can avoid trouble from the rail he should be hard to beat. Let’s make him a strong win play and a logical rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1.

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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Hong Kong Harry; 4-Air Force Red
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Hong Kong Harry is a terrific, high class, middle distance specialist with a perfect record (three-for-three) over the Santa Anita turf course and rates top billing in this year’s edition of the Frank E. Kilroe Mile-G1. He has never taken a backward move since being imported from England while producing a career top speed figure in his most recent appearance in the Seabiscuit Handicap-G2 at Del Mar in November. Freshened since then but showing a steady, healthy series of recent workouts that should have him fit and ready, the Irish-bred gelding has consistently run well off layoffs in the past, so there should be little doubt that trainer Phil D’Amato has hm cranked and ready. Air Force Red always is dangerous as the controlling speed, and if he can shake loose early without pressure he could easily dominate gate to wire. A five-time winner over the local lawn, the Leonard Powell-trained ridgeling lost a toughie in the Thunder Road Stakes-G3 in his most recent outing when relegated to a stalker’s role but he’s likely to make the running today and fire his best shot. We’ll prefer Hong Kong Harry on top but include both in our rolling exotics.


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RACE 12: Post: 5:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Hopper; 5-Defunded
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Hopper had every right to be a short horse when returning in the nine furlong San Pasqual Stakes-G2 following a nearly eight month layoff and did remarkably well to finish second after establishing all of the running and then carrying his speed until the final 70 yards. He’ll be fitter, stronger, and primed for a career top performance today. His pedigree okay’s the Big ‘Cap’s 12 furlong trip, and with a strong six furlong breeze in company and appearing a tad the best with Defunded since that race the son of Declaration of War should be set to step forward big time. Lightly raced (just four starts), the Bob Baffert-trained colt may have upside that the others don’t, so let’s put him on top while also including Defunded, an admirable second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational G-1 in his most recent outing in late January. The veteran Dialed Up gelding always has loved the local main track (first or second in five of six career starts) and could find himself on the lead or in a stalking position depending upon how Baffert orchestrates the race. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Hopper.