Sunday 3/5/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #7 Backstreet Affair 3-1 K Magee J Barbosa
2 #4 Bernie's On Fire 1-1 J J Robb X Perez
3 #7 Free Square 3-1 L Gaudet B L Butterfly
4 #3 Scootscoot 5-1 R Handal J Toledo
5 #7 Heads Or Tails 7-2 R P Klesaris H Karamanos
6 #4 Miss Casey 9-5 C A Gonzalez L R Rivera, Jr.
7 #3 Particular 5-2 M J Trombetta J Rodriguez
8 #4 Gold Digging Broad 2-1 M J Trombetta A Cruz

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Los Alamitos Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #8 Vegas Dream 9-5 E Truman E Payeras
2 #1 Loud Fusaichi 2-1 B T Cunningham E Payeras
3 #1 Big Cheddar 3-1 S Naranjo C Ortega
4 #3 Cal 2-1 L Ruiz E Payeras
5 #6 Look Up 2-1 S Willoughby J R Ayala
6 #5 Cactus Jack 2-1 S Willoughby J R Ayala
7 #2 Val Teresita 5-2 R Figueroa C Franco
8 #6 Dont Sass Kvn 5-2 P C Jones V M Salazar
9 #9 Party Politics 7-5 J G Aleman J R Ayala
10 #9 Ojd Shez Gon Rogue 6-1 M Arrossa J R Ayala

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Pretti Xtreme 5-2 B H Cox F Geroux
2 #1 I Got a Name 9-5 R L Morse R Bejarano
3 #2 Carpe Horseshoe 8-5 K Broberg C A Torres
4 #1 Corona Bolt 7-5 B H Cox F Geroux
5 #7 Cool Runnings 5-2 R Diodoro R Zimmerman
6 #9 Town Branch 3-1 C A Hartman F Arrieta
7 #11 Divinely Bolt 9-2 C A Hartman N Juarez
8 #6 Punchbowl 8-5 B H Cox F Geroux
9 #3 Debater 12-1 J N Gonzalez A Triana Jr.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sam Houston Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 AA SWEET VICTORY 4-5 N Ruggeri J L Alvarez
2 #1 Red Hot Moon 9-5 W B Calhoun J L Alvarez
3 #6 Clay's Opal Indy 3-1 K Craddock J Melancon
4 #4 My Patriotic Girl 9-5 E Cruz L D Goncalves
5 #4 Street Tapper 3-1 W B Calhoun J L Alvarez
6 #11 Zavala 20-1 J J Gelner F Wethey Jr.
7 #2 Hern 8-5 S M Asmussen S Elliott
8 #11 Chrome Baby 6-1 W B Calhoun J L Alvarez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Santa Anita Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Buzz of New York 6-5 P D'Amato J J Hernandez
2 #6 Ship and Scam 8-1 D F O'Neill L Dettori
3 #6 Faiza 8-5 B Baffert F Prat
4 #4 Blursday 8-5 R Hanson R A Vazquez
5 #5 Motorious 5-2 P D'Amato F Prat
6 #6 In Color 4-1 P D'Amato U Rispoli
7 #1 First Peace 4-1 M Glatt M E Smith
8 #4 Let's Rejoyce 7-2 J J Uranga A Alsagoor
9 #1 Doitforandrew 7-2 P D'Amato F Prat

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Marquee's Storm 5-2 C T Lambert F Valdez
2 #5 Auspice 7-5 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. C Ramos
3 #9 First Again 9-2 D Morales M A Perez
4 #3 Gemstone Gal 8-5 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes
5 #1 Tsunami Gold 7-2 M Valdez-Cabral, Jr. E P Gomez
6 #12 Time Is Precious 7-2 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes
7 #7 Senor Buscador 4-5 T W Fincher A J Juarez, Jr.
8 #3 Corrina Corrina 9-5 G W Cross K S Tohill
9 #3 Please the Court 5-1 D Cappellucci L A Fuentes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Tepper 8-5 K Danner H R Diaz, Jr.
2 #6 San Costantino 5-2 M Bowersock R D Allen, Jr.
3 #8 Collective Gold 5-2 G D Sacco A Suarez
4 #7 Charge It Jenn 3-1 V Carrasco, Jr. A S Arroyo
5 #5 Marvelous Lady 5-2 B G Lopez J A Batista
6 #12 Win Or Cellar 4-1 C Gatis M Iorio
7 #1 Travel Guide 3-1 R Romero S Camacho
8 #4 All Fools Day 5-1 M Bowersock R D Allen, Jr.
9 #6 The Skipster 6-1 P Posadas J A Batista

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Turf Paradise Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Natural Immunity 2-1 C K Story E Garcia
2 #5 U Did It 5-2 R Diodoro K Lopez
3 #4 Destiny One 3-1 C K Story E Garcia
4 #3 Smiling Thunder 2-1 M L Hernandez A Morales
5 #5 Warren's Memorable 7-2 R G Valerio H Hernandez
6 #9 Double Perfection 3-1 E J Kereluk L Mawing
7 #7 T Bones Trick 6-1 W Rarick H Hernandez
8 #3 She'd Rather Dance 5-1 M J Vitali H Hernandez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race [Md 20000, 6F] – (4) Super Quality made the lead and finished second in his last two starts at this level and is expected to be on the lead again. (7) Grand Again has shown speed in faster races in his last two starts but will need last longer to contend. (6) Brass Monkey debuted for a $40,000 tag in a field of nine and was third behind a horse that came back to win. (3) Chasin’ You will make a drop in claiming price from $40,000 but faces open company.

4th race [Md 20000, 1 mi] – (8) Wishing On a Star has changed trainers in her last three races and now moves back to the dirt on which she ran twice and finished second and fifth in tougher conditions. This will be her second start after a four month layoff. (5) Welcometomyworld comes back from a layoff and drops down from a pair of maiden special weights for the Rob Atras barn. (3) Cookie Crumbs finished second in her first start after being claimed by the Linda Rice barn behind the winner who won her next race. (4) Afilada has several good efforts at this level and she now moves to the Rice barn.

6th race [OC 62k/N2X, 6F] – (4) Scilly Cay (B) broke alertly, dropped back to last, and then rallied boldly from 12 lengths behind to miss the win by a neck. (6) Happy Farm drops in for the claiming option after running second in a N3X last time. (1A) Amundson ran in three N3X allowances and also drops in for a tag. (5) A Dangerous Guy was second last time at Parx earning a career best speed figure.

7th race [OC50k/SAL50k, 6F] – (6) Toxic Gray won a stretch duel by a head in a maiden special weight while making a huge jump in speed figures in his second start. (3) Paros won a $40,000 maiden claimer by almost 14 lengths with an off the pace effort which was his second following a layoff. (8) Valenzan Day was claimed for $50,000 and then tried the Jerome and now moves back to a level where he had four top two finishes. (5) Mama’s Gold won a $25,000 maiden claimer for NY-breds by more than 21 lengths with a big speed figure and was claimed by Chad Summers for an excellent bloodstock agent.

Best bets: Super Quality (1st); Wishing On a Star (4th). Best value: Scilly Cay (6th); Toxic Gray (7th).
No. Name Letter/
last race Today's Race Comments
(4) Scilly Cay B on 2/17 6 Broke alertly, dropped back, and rallied from last to second.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (2) Empire Attraction missed by a neck in his local debut and can reach the winner’s circle today. (1) Mo Vanishing could make a big impact in his career debut. (9) Ember returns from a layoff and could be a factor if there’s no rust. (3) Dunkle could perk up back on turf. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-9.

4th race – (2) Queen Karima (A) missed by a neck in her debut and should make amends in this field. (6) George’s Vice is an interesting first-time starter. (3) Stolen Future is a firster who could have a bright future. (4) Oolong Hai is speedy and can hang around until the end. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6.

6th race – (2) Watch It (B) had some early trouble and then ran well to miss by a neck. Seems nicely spotted for a winning trip here. (4) Breaker of Chains rallied belatedly but could work out a better trip in this field. (6) Bravo Kitten belongs in the exotics while returning to turf. (7) Ambitieuse has the potential to be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-7

8th race – (6) Gooch Go Bragh was rank early but should react favorably to a rider switch to Rosario. (7) Doctor Ron had some trouble last time and should post the main threat. (11) Regal Speaker might turn in a better effort on turf. (4) Artemus Bridge should perk up on turf. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-7-11.

11th race – (3) Utilization Rate debuts for Brown and seems poised for a top effort. (5) Soviet Excess was an improved second last time and should be the main rival. (1) Sun Bee can benefit from a rail trip. (9) Lady Bee seems well-suited for turf. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-9.
No. Name Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(2) Queen Karima A, 1/27 4 GP Missed by a neck in her debut
(2) Watch It B, 1/28 6 GP Lost by a neck in a sharp try

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $75,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 4 Denim in Gold E A Maldonado
PLACE 6-5 2 Buzz of New York J J Hernandez
SHOW 8-1 6 Founders Day M E Smith
WILD CARD 5-2 1 Warrens Candy Girl F Prat

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Gold for Kitten K Kimura
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 5 Classical Romance L Contreras

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX


RACE #2 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 2 Montana F Prat
PLACE 8-1 6 Ship and Scam L Dettori
SHOW 4-1 3 Left Hand Man K Kimura
WILD CARD 5-1 5 Magic Account T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 7 Austonian D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 1 Fordy G K J Desormeaux

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX


RACE #3 $100,000 STAKES
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 6 Faiza F Prat
PLACE 5-2 1 Pride of the Nile J J Hernandez
SHOW 3-1 2 And Tell Me Nolies R A Vazquez
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Blessed Touch H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Justique V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 4 Spanning the Globe K Kimura

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX


RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET

BEST BET: #1 SUGAR SUGAR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 1 Sugar Sugar E A Maldonado
PLACE 4-1 6 Worthiness T J Pereira
SHOW 2-1 5 Moonlite in Heaven D A Herrera
WILD CARD 10-1 3 Supercents G Franco

ALTERNATE 1 8-5 4 Blursday R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Hot Rod Mama A Alsagoor

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX


RACE #5 $100,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 5:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 1 Brickyard Ride J J Hernandez
PLACE 5-2 5 Motorious F Prat
SHOW 5-1 2 Sumter M E Smith
WILD CARD 5-1 4 Whatmakessammyrun J Bravo

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 Respect the Code K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Mecklenburg R Gonzalez

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX


RACE #6 $42,000 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:01 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 CLIQUISH

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 4 Cliquish M E Smith
PLACE 4-1 1 Anybodys Choice F Prat
SHOW 6-1 2 Half Nelson L Contreras
WILD CARD 3-1 5 Con Seal and Kerry K Frey

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 7 Irresistible Force R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 6 In Color U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX


RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 6 Sharp Aza Tack J J Hernandez
PLACE 6-1 9 Mi Hermano Ramon H I Berrios
SHOW 4-1 3 Johannes U Rispoli
WILD CARD 4-1 1 First Peace M E Smith

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Helladic L Dettori
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 7 Malibu Coast F Prat

* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX


RACE #8 $10,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:01 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 LETS REJOYCE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 4 Lets Rejoyce A Alsagoor
PLACE 8-1 1 Tizlightning U Rispoli
SHOW 4-1 9 Italiano H I Berrios
WILD CARD 3-1 2 Octopus A Cedillo

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Liar Liar D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 3 Handsome Gary K Frey

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX


RACE #9 $72,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 2 Forgiving Spirit A Alsagoor
PLACE 6-1 11 Redline L Dettori
SHOW 7-2 1 Doitforandrew F Prat
WILD CARD 5-1 6 Lovesick Blues J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 Augusta Melody R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Virat U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 2-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 1/6/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track
RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 2 Royal Court J L Castanon
PLACE 8-5 1 Tepper H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW 5-2 3 Anthracite S Marin
WILD CARD 15-1 4 Magna Ruler M Jimenez

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 5 J Js Justice L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Delta Ridge V Bush

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX


RACE #2 $19,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:48 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 San Costantino R D Allen Jr.
PLACE 6-1 5 Flipping Fish R Feliciano
SHOW 3-1 2 Hide the Demon M Jimenez
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Risk Vs Reward S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Tony Small P Morales
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 3 King Cairo J A Batista

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX


RACE #3 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 COLLECTIVE GOLD

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 8 Collective Gold A Suarez
PLACE 9-2 4 Cairo Winner J A Batista
SHOW 3-1 7 I Love Ireland S Marin
WILD CARD 6-1 6 Wine With a Rose R D Allen Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Heavens dOro P Morales
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Dudefoolingdarling M Meneses

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX


RACE #4 $5,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 7 Charge It Jenn A S Arroyo
PLACE 5-2 4 Snackster J Alicea
SHOW 7-2 5 Lady Teuflesberg S Camacho
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Lyrical J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Melancholy Blues M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Fancysoul L Sosa

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX


RACE #5 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 6 Cayman Queen S Marin
PLACE 6-1 9 Rebate A S Arroyo
SHOW 5-2 5 Marvelous Lady J A Batista
WILD CARD 9-2 3 Empire Girl L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 7 Valiant Mistress S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 4 Lady Kitty K Mendez

* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX


RACE #6 $8,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 5 My Girl Melly R D Allen Jr.
PLACE 7-2 3 Lil Annie Rose H Villa-Gomez
SHOW 4-1 12 Win Or Cellar M Iorio
WILD CARD 6-1 2 More Mucho S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 9 Starship Precious K J Coa
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 6 Chicago River A Quinonez

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/12 BOX, 2/3/12 BOX


RACE #7 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:33 PM ET

BEST BET: #1 TRAVEL GUIDE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 1 Travel Guide S Camacho
PLACE 15-1 9 Remember the Tune H Villa-Gomez
SHOW 7-2 3 Urban Beach J Alicea
WILD CARD 9-2 2 Takeover Kash L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 Lord of the Nile A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 7 The Point Road J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX


RACE #8 $8,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 TEN MILES HIGH

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 5 Ten Miles High M Meneses
PLACE 9-2 10 Got Em Thinking L Sosa
SHOW 5-1 4 All Fools Day R D Allen Jr.
WILD CARD 9-2 13 Thats My Boi Toy J A Batista

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Jama Dillon M Jimenez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 11 Jackson Strong H R Diaz Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/10 BOX, 4/10/13 BOX


RACE #9 $25,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 5 Hereby S Camacho
PLACE 9-2 9 Alyanaabi A A Gallardo
SHOW 8-1 2 Gambling Tzar D Centeno
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Airman P Morales

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 7 Exuma J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 6 The Skipster J A Batista

* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track
RACE #1 $50,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 7 Good Penny F Arrieta
PLACE 3-1 2 Misty Veil I Castillo
SHOW 5-2 5 Pretti Xtreme F Geroux
WILD CARD 5-1 3 Big Bad Diva N Juarez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Giannas Gift W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Family Time D Cabrera

* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX


RACE #2 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 9 Peaceful Moment C A Torres
PLACE 7-2 7 Old School Flash I Castillo
SHOW 9-5 1 I Got a Name R Bejarano
WILD CARD 5-1 8 Blue Cowgirl E Medellin

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 3 I Guess Not E Fuentes
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Fortibug J Hiraldo

* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX


RACE #3 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 2 Carpe Horseshoe C A Torres
PLACE 7-5 7 Empire Pass R Zimmerman
SHOW 15-1 5 Beckys Tattoo C Bailey
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Shesabidformidable K R Jordan

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 La Morena I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Distorted Secrets N Juarez

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX


RACE #4 $103,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 4 Joking Way R Santana Jr.
PLACE 9-2 3 Count de Monet S Sanjur
SHOW 7-5 1 Corona Bolt F Geroux
WILD CARD 8-1 2 Favorite Outlaw F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 5 Royal King C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 8 Sinners Sin R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX


RACE #5 $6,250 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 7 Cool Runnings R Zimmerman
PLACE 4-1 1 Major Kong H Torres
SHOW 9-2 6 Whooping Jay T Baze
WILD CARD 8-1 9 Paddy ODini K R Jordan

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 5 Rye Humor E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Bravo Bravo D Cabrera

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX


RACE #6 $50,000 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:18 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 BET HES READY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 7 Bet Hes Ready R Santana Jr.
PLACE 3-1 9 Town Branch F Arrieta
SHOW 6-1 6 Boat Song E Gallardo
WILD CARD 10-1 2 Victory March N Juarez

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 8 Switzer R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 1 Summer in Malibu J K Court

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX


RACE #7 $65,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 1 Sacred Wish K R Jordan
PLACE 2-1 10 Wreaking Havoc F Geroux
SHOW 9-2 11 Divinely Bolt N Juarez
WILD CARD 12-1 6 Ratified R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 5 Charlize G Saez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Boogie Woogie Gal I Castillo

* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/11 BOX, 6/10/11 BOX


RACE #8 $104,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:22 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 PUNCHBOWL

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 6 Punchbowl F Geroux
PLACE 6-1 2 Tough Legacy D Cabrera
SHOW 7-5 3 Shes Lookin Lucky C A Torres
WILD CARD 15-1 5 Bluelightspecial G Saez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 4 Santangelo N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 9 Stellar Lady F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX


RACE #9 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:54 PM ET

BEST BET: #10 CLASSY SOCKS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 10 Classy Socks D Cabrera
PLACE 3-1 4 Ike Wazowski K R Jordan
SHOW 5-1 9 Wicked Prince E Gonzalez
WILD CARD 12-1 2 Sir Peel R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 11 Kissofthenile K Harr
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 7 Ready Shoes R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 10-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - March 5

Mar. 04, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 3 Bosshog Them Dukes D L Parker
PLACE 5-2 4 Kidyounot J Riquelme
SHOW 9-2 5 Max Pandowdy M Pedroza Jr.
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Okudah E Nieves

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 6 F Js Gem C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Aniclude E Morales

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX


RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 PSEUDOSCIENCE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 5 Pseudoscience S Barandela
PLACE 3-1 2 Magical Stardust E Nieves
SHOW 7-2 1 Beautifulandwild C J Lanerie
WILD CARD 8-1 3 Lake Runner A Green

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 I Dont Know Either A Castillo
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 7 Zeerock J L Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX


RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 CHROME RACER

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Chrome Racer J Loveberry
PLACE 4-1 4 Frosty Diva C J Lanerie
SHOW 7-2 2 Ziggzappa C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 5-1 7 My Lady Luna D L Parker

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 3 Markswoman E Morales
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Catherine Blaze S Barandela

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX


RACE #4 $52,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-5 1 Ballinonabudjet R Gutierrez
PLACE 5-1 4 Unanimously A Castillo
SHOW 5-1 2 Silver Galaxy M Murrill
WILD CARD 6-1 6 Like Mike C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Wise Verdict G Melancon
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 3 Bayou Jam E Nieves

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX


RACE #5 $35,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 6 Zippin Pippin A Beschizza
PLACE 3-1 3 Goodbye Kyle C J Lanerie
SHOW 8-5 2 Fearless Kristie D L Parker
WILD CARD 5-1 4 Montana Rose M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Hammerdonhappiness G Ashton
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Divina Dulce D Cohen

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX


RACE #6 $53,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 OVA CHARGED

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 8 Ova Charged A Concepcion
PLACE 7-5 5 Swot Analysis R Gutierrez
SHOW 6-1 7 Mike J A Green
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Father Goose C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Fiesty Fist M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Langs Day J Graham

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX


RACE #7 $51,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 8 Emerald Forest R Gutierrez
PLACE 6-1 1 Spectrolite E Morales
SHOW 5-2 7 My Pal Mattie M Murrill
WILD CARD 4-1 4 Mister Mmmmm C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 3 Twirling Roses J Graham
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 5 Sign of War E Nieves

* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX


RACE #8 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 6 Ourquickdrawmcgraw E Morales
PLACE 4-1 7 Blackteca J Loveberry
SHOW 7-2 5 Call Me Collect E J Barrera
WILD CARD 9-2 1 Chrompton E M Murray

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 8 Reverent A Green
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 4 Gtuone Buck R Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/5/23

March 5, 2023

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Buzz of New York
Backups/savers: 4-Denim in Gold

Forecast: Buzz of New York is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in the Sunday opener, a second level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Her lifetime record of 2 wins from 16 starts makes a short price hard to take, but all of the other elements in her recent and overall form clearly makes her the one to beat. A prior winner over this course and distance and with solid and consistent speed figures, the Irish-bred mare seems likely to settle in the second flight while saving ground and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Comebacker Denim in Gold projects as the controlling speed in her first start since beating maidens over the local lawn last summer. Her work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs should have her fit enough, but her speed figures are short of what they need to be. Toss her in on a backup ticket.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Austonian
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Austonian is bred to be quick (Smiling Tiger) and has done some very good work in the morning to indicate plenty of speed, ability, and fitness leading up to his debut in this California-bred maiden special weight sprint. Drawn comfortably outside, the Brian Koriner-trained sophomore doesn’t really have a whole lot to beat among the known element, so we’re expecting a major effort first crack out of the box. There’s good wagering value at or near his morning line of 3-1 if you can get it, so let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Faiza; 1-Pride of the Nile
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Santa Ysabel Stakes should boil down to the first two finishers in the recent Las Virgenes Stakes-G3, with Faiza, the winner of that race over Pride of the Nile by a desperate half length, likely to be a short price to repeat. The Bob Baffert-trained sophomore is unbeaten in three starts, two of which were over a distance of ground, so from her outside draw the daughter of Girvin projects to fold over into a stalking position and then go on with it when given her cue. ‘Nile lands the rail and will have every chance with a ground-saving trip, just as she had last time when she fought hard to the wire but simply couldn’t get by. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Moonlite in Heaven; 4-Blursday
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming older fillies and mares meet over a mile in a race that offers little to work with. Moonlite in Heaven, a not-too-bad second over this track and distance at this level in her second career start earlier this meeting, seems as good as any. The Tim Yakteen-trained four-year-old should be able to draft into a comfortable stalking position in a field without any known late speed and then have her chance to grind out a win. Blursday, the 8/5 morning line favorite, plummets to the bottom in her third career start and is the one to fear most after exiting a much tougher and productive state-bred straight maiden grass affair in January. Numbers-wise, she’s pretty much even with our top pick, so it may come down to which one can improve the most.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 5: Post: 2:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Brickyard Ride
Backups/savers: 5-Motorious

Forecast: Brickyard Ride has a history of firing fresh and he has worked well enough to be fit and ready in his first outing since last May. The speedy son of Clubhouse Ride will be tough the controlling speed (as usual) in this year’s renewal of the San Simeon Stakes-G3, and with a prior win over this course and distance the Craig Lewis-trained veteran is the logical top pick. His rail post down the hill isn’t great, but it shouldn’t be a deal breaker. Motorious is the best of the closers and should be included somewhere on your ticket. Though he was somewhat below form when second in his most recent outing at 3/5 in the Clocker’s Corner Stakes, his powerful win two races back makes him dangerous.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 6: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Irresistible Force
Backups/savers: 4-Cliquish

Forecast: Let’s take a shot with the first-timer Irresistible Force in this maiden special weight optional claiming sprint for sophomore fillies because those that have raced aren’t terribly inspiring and this daughter of Mendelssohn has shown enough ability in her morning drills for a low profile but capable outfit to be highly competitive at this level. In her solo gate work February 19, she caught the eye when earning a solid 1:00 3/5 clocking without being knocked about and appeared to finish with something left, so at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth a bit of a gamble. Morning line favorite (8/5) Cliquish finished a distant fourth in her debut and earned a good number but the second place finisher in that race, Conquistar, came back to disappoint as the heavy favorite on Friday, leaving us with some evidence that the race itself wasn’t all that much. Nonetheless, we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two as a saver.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________


RACE 7: Post: 3:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Johannes, 9-Mi Hermano Ramon
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: After not showing a whole lot of spark in his first three career starts on dirt, Johannes left his form far behind with a scintillating nine length romp when switched to grass in a hot maiden sprint over the flat course in late December, and today moves into stakes competition while taking his talents to the tricky Hillside Turf Course in this year’s edition of the Baffle Stakes. The son of Nyquist is facing a field loaded with intense early zip, so it would not be surprising if stalk-and-pounce strategy is employed by his connections. Based on pure speed figures, he’s the one to beat and at 4-1 on the morning line the one play, as well. Unbeaten Mi Hermano Ramon already has a solid win down the hill, having reeled in first level allowance foes in a hot race in late January. In his third start, he’ll be ridden by his third different rider but seems certain to receive the patient ride he requires from Umberto Rispoli. He should get plenty of help up to set things up for his closing kick.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 8: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Let’s Rejoyce; 1-Tizlightning
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Here’s a challenging $12,500 main track sprint for older horses that may require a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just two, but feel free to go deeper if you find it necessary. Let’s Rejoyce flashed good speed for a half before gradually weakening in a tougher state-bred allowance optional claimer last time out, but this is a group he can act with. With a big break in the weights combined with back numbers that can win the son of Kafwain deserves top billing. Tizlightning makes his second start off a layoff and is likely to improve after pressing the pace before fading in the lane in a similar spot earlier this season. Though he was beaten as the favorite in that race, the son of Stanford shows a couple of decent workouts since that mid-January outing and with a clean break from the rail should be a serious pace factor throughout.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 9: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Doitforandrew; 2-Forgiving Spirit; 5-Virat
Backups/savers: 9-Degree of Risk

Forecast: The finale is a six furlong turf sprint for first allowance condition runners that offers all kinds of possibilities. Use as many as your budget allows. Doitforandrew still is looking for his first win since being imported from Ireland but his local form is improving, he’s hit the board in his last three, and today he’ll be equipped with blinkers while retaining Flavian Prat. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw, so with good racing luck he should make his presence felt in the final furlong. Forgiving Spirit has won four of seven over the Santa Anita turf course, including his last pair, and though he’s moving up from state-bred company his numbers say he’s a solid fit and arguably the one to beat. Virat didn’t seem comfortable down the Hill in his most recent outing and lacked a rally despite being well positioned crossing the dirt strip. He’s back on the flat today, and a repeat of his race before last puts him right there. Degree of Risk is a most effective as a late-running turf sprinter and just finished well to be third at 22-1 in a similar affair down the Hillside Course. The Cairo Prince gelding hasn’t won in two years but with a repeat of his last race he’ll probably outrun his 8-1 morning line. Toss him in as a saver.