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Re: 2-28-09
rew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000? Virginia Tech
2. 50,000? Creighton
3. 50,000? Oklahoma State
1. Virginia Tech- Hokies got back on the bubble with an impressive outright win at Clemson Wednesday, and I expect the same kind of energy (if not more) in this critical ACC rematch with Duke this afternoon. The knock on the Hokies was their recent road play (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS away prior to Wednesday), but taking down Clemson was a big step forward, and sets them up perfectly today in Blacksburg, where they're just as good as Duke on both ends of the court. But let's dig a little deeper...
Before we get into match ups, its important to note that the Blue Devils handed the Hokies their worst loss of the season, a 69-44 drubbing in Durham back on January 4th, and now its payback time! Revenge is a key factor in capping any college game, but this one in particular, because Duke routed a Tech team that was still finding its way, and they learned a lot because of it. Need proof? The Hokies reeled off 5 straight ACC wins after that loss, and now things come full circle, as Va. Tech shows the Dukies just how much better they've gotten today.
As far as match ups are concerned, I'm looking for the Hokies Big 3, Delaney, Vassallo, and Allen to lead the way, as usual, but with a twist. I remember their last meeting well, and if you saw that game, you know Delaney played well, but Vassallo and Allen were just awful. Everyone is allowed an off-day, but rest-assured, the Hokies Big 3 will come to play this afternoon, especially Vassallo, who's really stepped it up of late (20+ ppg in 4 of last 5 games).
On the flip side, while Duke has won 3 straight, forgive me if I'm not impressed by them winning games they're supposed to win. Looking into the numbers, its clear their defense has fallen off considerably, allowing 81 ppg on a mind-boggling 55% shooting over their last 5 games! Guys, needless to say, its extremely difficult to cover as a road chalk (against a desperate opponent), if you're going to play NO defense!
Bottom line, while Duke may still get the W here, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, if Virginia Tech pulls off another outright upset here. They've got the home court, they've got a HUGE motivational edge (on the bubble, revenge), and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning at Clemson. Look for the Hokies to circle the wagons at home, and grab the cash in this critical ACC match up.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Creighton- Huge game for the Bluejays, who sit at 13-4 in conference, tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. A win here guarantees them no less than a co-conference championship, and that in and of itslef, is obviously a HUGE motivator. Look for the Jays to come out fired up, but that's hardly the only reason I like Creighton here...
Redbirds-backers cannot be happy with their team's play of late, losers of two in a row SUATS. Fact is, they're playing like a team that really has nothing to play for, in that, Illinois State has already locked up # 3 seed. So really guys, what's the motivation for this Redbirds team this afternoon?
Speaking of motivation, you know we can't talk about this contest without mentioning the fact the Bluejays have lost 4 in a row SUATS in this series, including an ugly 86-64 loss at Redbird Arena back in early January. I've said once and I'll say it again, payback is a bitch, and the Redbirds are about to find that out the hard way today.
So what's the difference in this match up? Well clearly, the Bluejays are playing great ball, winners of 9 in a row since they lost to Drake badly at home. We've seen this Creighton offense take off, averaging 76 ppg at home this season, and 78 ppg on nealry 50% shooting over their last 5 games! While both defenses are comparable statistically, there's no question the Bluejays offense has a huge edge.
Finally, one of the main reasons the Redbirds are suddenly struggling has been the drop-off in play of one of their best players (and a Creighton-killer in the past) Osiris Eldridge. He's averaged 19 ppg in his last 5 meetings with Creighton, but of late, has been slumping bad, averaging 11 ppg on 33% shooting over his last 5 games. Note, Eldridge is just 4 of 25 over his last 2 games, and breaking that slump against a very good, and highly motivated Bluejays defense is easier said than done. In the end, the Bluejays can lock up a co-conference championship, and coupled with the revenge factor and match ups issues mentioned above, look for the Bluejays to deliver the solid home win and cover this afternoon.
Take Creighton over Illinois State in this college hoops match up.
3. Oklahoma State- Good spot to back the Cowboys, who have several strong edges in this contest, but let's start with the situational aspects...
We all knew the Longhorns needed to rebound after an ugly loss at Texas A&M, and they did that by winning two critical home games. Now however, one has to question their focus going back out on the road... In other words, I smell a letdown here for the Longhorns, as matching the energy of the Cowboys in Stillwater coming off those two wins is easier said than done.
Speaking of Stillwater, there's no question it remains one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12, with the Cowboys going 12-2 SU and 5-4 ATS there this season. Herein lies the problem for the Longhorns, as the Cowboys offense is excellent at home, burning up the nets averaging 88 ppg on 47% shooting (incl. almost 40% from 3-point land)! For as good as Texas has been, their offense on the road has been average at best, averaging 69 ppg on 42% shooting (incl. just 25% from long range).
Clearly, Okie State has the edge offensively, and the 'Horns recent road losses at Texas A&M (66 points scored) and Nebraska (55 points scored), show why I like the Cowboys in this contest... Texas will not be able to keep pace. Defensively, we'll give the edge to Texas, but not by much, especially of late, allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games (not nearly good enough to win in this contest).
Finally, once again, we see another revenge contest here (a lot of payback going around today). The Longhorns mauled the Cowboys 99-74 in Austin back on Feb. 10th, and you best believe Okie State will be ready for the rematch today at home. True, Texas has won the last 6 meetings between these two teams, but only one of those 6 games was in Stillwater, and that one was a razor close 63-61 Texas win, but Okie State cover. The Cowboys finally make it over the hump, get their revenge AND add a much needed win to their resume this afternoon.
Take Oklahoma State over Texas in this college hoops match up.
rew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000? Virginia Tech
2. 50,000? Creighton
3. 50,000? Oklahoma State
1. Virginia Tech- Hokies got back on the bubble with an impressive outright win at Clemson Wednesday, and I expect the same kind of energy (if not more) in this critical ACC rematch with Duke this afternoon. The knock on the Hokies was their recent road play (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS away prior to Wednesday), but taking down Clemson was a big step forward, and sets them up perfectly today in Blacksburg, where they're just as good as Duke on both ends of the court. But let's dig a little deeper...
Before we get into match ups, its important to note that the Blue Devils handed the Hokies their worst loss of the season, a 69-44 drubbing in Durham back on January 4th, and now its payback time! Revenge is a key factor in capping any college game, but this one in particular, because Duke routed a Tech team that was still finding its way, and they learned a lot because of it. Need proof? The Hokies reeled off 5 straight ACC wins after that loss, and now things come full circle, as Va. Tech shows the Dukies just how much better they've gotten today.
As far as match ups are concerned, I'm looking for the Hokies Big 3, Delaney, Vassallo, and Allen to lead the way, as usual, but with a twist. I remember their last meeting well, and if you saw that game, you know Delaney played well, but Vassallo and Allen were just awful. Everyone is allowed an off-day, but rest-assured, the Hokies Big 3 will come to play this afternoon, especially Vassallo, who's really stepped it up of late (20+ ppg in 4 of last 5 games).
On the flip side, while Duke has won 3 straight, forgive me if I'm not impressed by them winning games they're supposed to win. Looking into the numbers, its clear their defense has fallen off considerably, allowing 81 ppg on a mind-boggling 55% shooting over their last 5 games! Guys, needless to say, its extremely difficult to cover as a road chalk (against a desperate opponent), if you're going to play NO defense!
Bottom line, while Duke may still get the W here, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, if Virginia Tech pulls off another outright upset here. They've got the home court, they've got a HUGE motivational edge (on the bubble, revenge), and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning at Clemson. Look for the Hokies to circle the wagons at home, and grab the cash in this critical ACC match up.
Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Creighton- Huge game for the Bluejays, who sit at 13-4 in conference, tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. A win here guarantees them no less than a co-conference championship, and that in and of itslef, is obviously a HUGE motivator. Look for the Jays to come out fired up, but that's hardly the only reason I like Creighton here...
Redbirds-backers cannot be happy with their team's play of late, losers of two in a row SUATS. Fact is, they're playing like a team that really has nothing to play for, in that, Illinois State has already locked up # 3 seed. So really guys, what's the motivation for this Redbirds team this afternoon?
Speaking of motivation, you know we can't talk about this contest without mentioning the fact the Bluejays have lost 4 in a row SUATS in this series, including an ugly 86-64 loss at Redbird Arena back in early January. I've said once and I'll say it again, payback is a bitch, and the Redbirds are about to find that out the hard way today.
So what's the difference in this match up? Well clearly, the Bluejays are playing great ball, winners of 9 in a row since they lost to Drake badly at home. We've seen this Creighton offense take off, averaging 76 ppg at home this season, and 78 ppg on nealry 50% shooting over their last 5 games! While both defenses are comparable statistically, there's no question the Bluejays offense has a huge edge.
Finally, one of the main reasons the Redbirds are suddenly struggling has been the drop-off in play of one of their best players (and a Creighton-killer in the past) Osiris Eldridge. He's averaged 19 ppg in his last 5 meetings with Creighton, but of late, has been slumping bad, averaging 11 ppg on 33% shooting over his last 5 games. Note, Eldridge is just 4 of 25 over his last 2 games, and breaking that slump against a very good, and highly motivated Bluejays defense is easier said than done. In the end, the Bluejays can lock up a co-conference championship, and coupled with the revenge factor and match ups issues mentioned above, look for the Bluejays to deliver the solid home win and cover this afternoon.
Take Creighton over Illinois State in this college hoops match up.
3. Oklahoma State- Good spot to back the Cowboys, who have several strong edges in this contest, but let's start with the situational aspects...
We all knew the Longhorns needed to rebound after an ugly loss at Texas A&M, and they did that by winning two critical home games. Now however, one has to question their focus going back out on the road... In other words, I smell a letdown here for the Longhorns, as matching the energy of the Cowboys in Stillwater coming off those two wins is easier said than done.
Speaking of Stillwater, there's no question it remains one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12, with the Cowboys going 12-2 SU and 5-4 ATS there this season. Herein lies the problem for the Longhorns, as the Cowboys offense is excellent at home, burning up the nets averaging 88 ppg on 47% shooting (incl. almost 40% from 3-point land)! For as good as Texas has been, their offense on the road has been average at best, averaging 69 ppg on 42% shooting (incl. just 25% from long range).
Clearly, Okie State has the edge offensively, and the 'Horns recent road losses at Texas A&M (66 points scored) and Nebraska (55 points scored), show why I like the Cowboys in this contest... Texas will not be able to keep pace. Defensively, we'll give the edge to Texas, but not by much, especially of late, allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games (not nearly good enough to win in this contest).
Finally, once again, we see another revenge contest here (a lot of payback going around today). The Longhorns mauled the Cowboys 99-74 in Austin back on Feb. 10th, and you best believe Okie State will be ready for the rematch today at home. True, Texas has won the last 6 meetings between these two teams, but only one of those 6 games was in Stillwater, and that one was a razor close 63-61 Texas win, but Okie State cover. The Cowboys finally make it over the hump, get their revenge AND add a much needed win to their resume this afternoon.
Take Oklahoma State over Texas in this college hoops match up.
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