Saturday 4/1/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - April 1

Mar. 31, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Mucho Mojo	J D Ramos
PLACE	2-1	7	Kissalot	L Machado
SHOW	4-1	3	Rogue Element	J Talamo
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Future Victory	P W Ouzts
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Juulstone	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Blueberry	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 LAYTOWN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Laytown	A Lezcano
PLACE	4-1	13	Close Knit	A Beschizza
SHOW	5-1	7	Savvy On Blanc	D Cannon
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Booyah	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	12	Charlies Medal	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Habitus	L Y Marcano
* EXACTA: 2-13 BOX, 13-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/13 BOX, 1/7/13 BOX
RACE #3 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 INTRIGUE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Intrigue	G Corrales
PLACE	7-2	7	Fast Giselle	A Achard
SHOW	6-1	1	Strong Odor	E Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Hermana	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Rocs Princess	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	Tap Dancing Lady	F De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #4 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Swiss Franc	R M Hernandez
PLACE	9-2	10	Accidental Icon	W A Rodriguez
SHOW	6-1	4	Exhibit Hall	G Corrales
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Luna Moth	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Golden Runner	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	More Than Glory	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX
RACE #5 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	14	Shemademeblush	J D Ramos
PLACE	7-2	4	Heart Spin	J Rocco Jr.
SHOW	5-1	9	More Than a Diva	J Talamo
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Jubilant Joanie	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Theteasergotloose	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Lucky Ana	I Ayala
* EXACTA: 14-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/14 BOX, 3/4/9 BOX
RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Peruvian Lucky	L Machado
PLACE	7-2	2	Roenick	A Lezcano
SHOW	8-1	8	Midnight Channel	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Halloween	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Stirdatpot	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Chiron	J Elliott
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 SERENAS SONG STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Sunday Shoes	J Loveberry
PLACE	6-1	12	B G Warrior	F De La Cruz
SHOW	10-1	9	Jill Jitterbug	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Bulsara	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Collecting Flatter	R M Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	11	Somebodys Problem	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 7-12 BOX, 12-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/12 BOX, 1/9/12 BOX
COMMENTS: COLLECTING FLATTER is unbeaten in three on an all weather track. SUNDAY SHOES won her debut with the highest last race speed figure. SALLYS SASSY is two for two on a synthetic track. PERSONAL PURSUIT made up ground late in her last five starts.
RACE #8 $10,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 TAKAFUMI
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Takafumi	T Canuto
PLACE	9-2	7	Choctaw Bingo	E Morales
SHOW	5-1	11	Markitoff	D Cannon
WILD CARD	8-1	13	Hemp Hemp Hurray	R M Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Carom	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	English Tide	L Machado
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 7/11/13 BOX
RACE #9 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	6	Undismayed	M Franklin
PLACE	4-1	10	Renaissance	A Lezcano
SHOW	3-1	3	Cleat	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	8-1	11	Noble Jon	S Sanjur
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Holy Cross	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Gun Rush	R M Hernandez
* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - April 1

Mar. 31, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $72,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 CARMEN MIRANDA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	6	Carmen Miranda	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	2	Denim in Gold	E A Maldonado
SHOW	4-1	1	Power Surge	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Procrastination	K Kimura
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Liv and Let Liv	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Benedict Canyon	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Smiling Amy	K Frey
PLACE	5-2	1	Shambala Girl	T J Pereira
SHOW	4-1	7	Blursday	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Sheza Lucky Charm	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Dons Dayna	L Contreras
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Oak Creek Gal	H R Lopez
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $22,500 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 ANNIES SONG
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Annies Song	A Cedillo
PLACE	7-2	1	Too Much Heaven	G Franco
SHOW	7-2	5	Flat Out Joy	K Frey
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Code Ribbon	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	A New Peace	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Vandalia	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 TEXTHELEGEND
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Texthelegend	J J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	1	Palagio	J Bravo
SHOW	8-1	6	Flat On	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	9-5	4	Ultimate Gamble	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Lift Off	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Seventeen Black	U Rispoli
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Billbernjoejohnick	E A Maldonado
PLACE	4-1	1	Six Feet	R A Vazquez
SHOW	8-1	4	Ship and Scam	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Tizz a Good Thing	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Uncle John	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Pars and Birdies	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $10,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Afternoon Heat	H I Berrios
PLACE	4-1	1	Catbernay	G Franco
SHOW	5-2	6	Box of Chocolates	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Midnight Special	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Mighty Matt	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Mr. Clutch	F Orduna-Rojas
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Closing Remarks	J Bravo
PLACE	6-1	5	Very Scary	K J Desormeaux
SHOW	5-1	2	Honey Jar	K Kimura
WILD CARD	3-1	1	School Dance	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	6	Seisai	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Nadette	L Dettori
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	2	Batukhan	D A Herrera
PLACE	3-1	4	Storming Chrome	E A Maldonado
SHOW	5-1	1	Take Charge Curly	G Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Donttestyourluck	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Chaokoon	A Alsagoor
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Shady Star	K Frey
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Slam Diego	H I Berrios
PLACE	4-1	11	An Agent Mistake	M Gutierrez
SHOW	5-1	10	Glenall	L Dettori
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Good Boo Joo	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	12	Real Fire	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Weemissgrammy	D Van Dyke
* EXACTA: 8-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/10/11 BOX, 5/10/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - April 1

Mar. 31, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $110,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Into Love	G Saez
PLACE	4-1	8	Beautiful Bolt	N Juarez
SHOW	8-1	9	First Love	C A Torres
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Chanisa	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Marys Boon	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Sharp Attitude	L S Quinonez
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
RACE #2 $125,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Gramercy Park	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	2-1	5	One Way Or Another	R Bejarano
SHOW	5-1	7	Pattern Bet	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Mocha Kiss	C Bailey
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Shes Storming	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Hamazing Debate	E Gonzalez
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #3 $125,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	8	Hypersport	G Saez
PLACE	2-1	2	Violent Point	C A Torres
SHOW	5-1	3	Silvia	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Thunders Rocknroll	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Rollin Chrome	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Ribbonsinherhair	E Gallardo
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #4 $110,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	7	Miracle Worker	F Prat
PLACE	8-5	3	Runaway Jack	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	12-1	2	Kingmaker	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Federal Judge	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Cyclone	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Speakinofthedevil	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #5 $400,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:32 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 OAKLAWN MILE STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Smile Happy	F Arrieta
PLACE	4-1	5	Caddo River	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	7-5	7	Hopper	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Hero Status	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Silver Prospector	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Necker Island	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
COMMENTS: SMILE HAPPY ran the highest last race speed figure and might be better in the second start off the sidelines. CADDO RIVER has three wins with a second and third in five at the distance. HOPPER ships in from Santa Anita for trainer Bob Baffert. HERO STATUS does the most damage when he is close to the lead and should be involved from go here.
RACE #6 $110,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Next Thursday	M Garcia
PLACE	9-5	6	Ngala	F Prat
SHOW	8-1	2	Sassy Lass	C Bailey
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Magnolia Mae	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Aloha Baby	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Miss Double	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #7 $125,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 GAR HOLE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Gar Hole	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-2	4	Osbourne	R Bejarano
SHOW	7-5	6	Straight No Chaser	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Chipofftheoldblock	R E Eramia
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Much Better	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Ruggs	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:19 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 HOT SPRINGS STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Eyeing Clover	F Geroux
PLACE	8-1	4	Cactus	R Bejarano
SHOW	7-2	3	Gun Pilot	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Frosted Departure	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Powerful	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	6	Carmel Road	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: EYEING CLOVER is undefeated in a pair on a fast track. CACTUS is unbeaten in two including the top last race speed figure. GUN PILOT drops from the Grade II Rebel Stakes to a level that should be a better fit. FROSTED DEPARTURE also dops from the Rebel back to a level where he recorded his last win.
RACE #9 $110,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SEEKING UNITY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Seeking Unity	F Prat
PLACE	7-2	8	Route Runner	T Gaffalione
SHOW	9-2	10	Quality Chic	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Manta Rey	W De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Tahoe Run	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Game Keeper	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/10 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX
RACE #10 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $600,000 FANTASY STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	6	Wet Paint	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	8	Royal Spa	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	10-1	10	Condensation	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Shes Lookin Lucky	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	7	Pate	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Towhead	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/10 BOX, 1/8/10 BOX
COMMENTS: WET PAINT is unbeaten in two at Oaklawn Park and close to winning four in a row. ROYAL SPA improved her race internals in her last and has two fast workouts since. CONDENSATION has four wins with two seconds in seven career starts. SHES LOOKIN LUCKY rides the hot rail and just needs to run one back where she won by 13.
RACE #11 $125,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #12 FAVORITE OUTLAW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	12	Favorite Outlaw	F Arrieta
PLACE	6-1	2	Breslau	W De La Cruz
SHOW	3-1	1	Go West	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Absolute Chaos	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Ultimate	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Emerald Forest	J L Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/12 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
RACE #12 $1,250,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1.25 M ARKANSAS DERBY GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	4	Two Eagles River	N Juarez
PLACE	9-2	6	Angel of Empire	F Prat
SHOW	15-1	5	Airtime	C A Torres
WILD CARD	5-2	8	Reincarnate	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	10	Red Route One	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	7	Rocket Can	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
COMMENTS: TWO EAGLES RIVER is a neck and a head from winning four of her five races. ANGEL OF EMPIRE is coming off of his best race and could be even better in his second start after a layoff. AIRTIME won three of the last four and is two for two at Oaklawn. REINCARNATE finished in the trifecta in all six starts.
RACE #13 $125,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Fifty Cent Dollars	N Juarez
PLACE	9-2	6	Back Ring Luck	I Castillo
SHOW	5-2	1	Knocker Down	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	13	Conspiracy Fact	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	14	Charter Oak	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Mamzooj	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/13 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - April 1

Mar. 31, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:15 AM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	5	R King Kong	M Meneses
PLACE	2-1	4	Ill Finish	A S Arroyo
SHOW	6-1	2	Awkward Pause	J Alicea
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Lovielee	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Any Minute	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Roll On Dude	R F Reeves Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #2 $20,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:45 AM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Kitchen Fire	J L Castanon
PLACE	5-2	5	Imperial King	D Centeno
SHOW	3-1	2	San Costantino	R D Allen Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Isle of Skye	J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Davidic Line	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Scrutinizer	H R Diaz Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	9	Theuncapturedlady	S Camacho
PLACE	10-1	8	Rainout	H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	3	Shemightdancesalsa	R D Allen Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Sign and Seal	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Mystic Dreams	J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Ginger Sparkle	B Scampton
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
RACE #4 $8,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 J TS MY BOY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	J Ts My Boy	K Mendez
PLACE	15-1	6	Edmund Fitzgerald	V Bush
SHOW	12-1	3	Colors	L Sosa
WILD CARD	5-2	8	Alexis N Niko	J Alicea
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Gerard	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Poseidons Myth	A S Arroyo
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #5 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	10	Cupids Dream	D Centeno
PLACE	7-2	8	Pugilist	A A Rodriguez
SHOW	6-1	3	Summer At the Spa	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Chica Boom	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Memphis Showboat	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	One Night Stand	M Jimenez
* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
RACE #6 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	One Tough Dame	J C Ferrer
PLACE	7-2	5	Moonshining	H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	7	Chriss Motown Gal	S Marin
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Lieutenants Sequel	R A Bracho
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Glorious Wave	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Mo Town Annie	M Rowland
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $28,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Joes Had Enough	J C Ferrer
PLACE	9-2	2	Gratia Prince	H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	10	Romantic Fantasy	S Camacho
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Brooklyn Guy	L Sosa
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Flawless Cat	R Feliciano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Caughtandcollected	D Centeno
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/10 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
RACE #8 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 BABY BOOMER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Baby Boomer	S Camacho
PLACE	6-1	4	Catch On Emotional	V Bush
SHOW	6-1	6	Roger McQueen	S Marin
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Kingswood	J A Batista
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Astronaut Oscar	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Cantankerous Cat	A A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 IRISH KITTEN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Irish Kitten	S Camacho
PLACE	3-1	5	Newyearspresent	H Villa-Gomez
SHOW	7-2	4	Mylastredcent	L Sosa
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Syllabus	S Marin
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Morena Dancer	H R Diaz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Hurry Up Dear	J Alicea
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Meet the Contenders: 2023 Florida Derby

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March 27, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s $1 million Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park boasts Kentucky Derby favorite Forte among a field of 12. It’s part of a 14-race card that boasts 10 stakes races.
Let’s Meet the Contenders for the 2023 Florida Derby:

#1 Jungfrau (Paco Lopez // Bill Mott) 20-1
Son of Pegasus World Cup winner Arrogate’s only victory came over this track via disqualification on New Year’s Eve. Trainer Bill Mott bypassed the Florida Derby with Holy Bull winner and Fountain of Youth runner-up Rocket Can, who ships to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby instead of a rematch with Forte.

#2 West Coast Cowboy (Sonny Leon // Saffie Joseph, Jr.) 20-1
This son of Pegasus World Cup runner-up West Coast finished third in the Holy Bull Stakes at 58-1 in February. One of 4 trainees for Joseph in this field as he seeks back-to-back Florida Derby wins (White Abarrio ’23). Jockey Edgard Zayas jumps to ride stablemate Mr. Ripple. Last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning Sonny Leon looks to land a mount for a repeat run at the roses.

#3 Shaq Diesel (Miguel Vasquez // Renaldo Richards) 30-1
10th at 184-1 odds in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, the ex-claimer will be among the longest shots in the field. He does own a pair of local victories, but both were in 7-furlong sprints. Equipment change to blinkers off Saturday.

#4 Mage (Luis Saez // Gustavo Delgado) 10-1
Matches Nautical Star and Mr. Peeks as the most lightly raced entrants in this year’s Florida Derby with only 2 prior starts. Smashing debut sprint winner was a respectable fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes when 6-3/4 lengths behind Forte, but just over 2 lengths out of the exacta. He’s a grandson of Preakness winner Curlin, whose stallion career sponsors this race … and also a grandson of 2008 Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown. Jockey Luis Saez won this race on the front end in 2019 with Maximum Security. Expect this one near the early lead from a good post draw.

#5 Mr. Peeks (Edwin Gonzalez // Saffie Joseph, Jr.) 30-1
Maiden matches Mage and Nautical Star as the most lightly raced entrants in this year’s Florida Derby with only 2 prior starts. He did not debut until Feb. 11 and has never raced beyond 6 furlongs. He was privately purchased after his March 12 runner-up and moved from trainer Ian Wilkes. One of 4 trainees for Joseph in this field as he seeks back-to-back Florida Derby wins (White Abarrio ’23). He could be the early pace leader.

#6 Nautical Star (Leonel Reyes // Saffie Joseph, Jr.) 30-1
Another recent purchase after a promising maiden victory at Oaklawn on February 18. This Oklahoma-bred matches Mage and Mr. Peeks as the most lightly raced entrants in this year’s Florida Derby with only 2 prior starts. And, like Mr. Peeks, his pair of starts both came at just 6 furlongs. One of 4 trainees for Joseph in this field as he seeks back-to-back Florida Derby wins (White Abarrio ’23).

#7 Il Miracolo (Jesus Rios // Antonio Sano) 30-1
Son of Pegasus World Cup winner Gun Runner is the only horse in 2023 to start in all 4 of Gulfstream’s Triple Crown preps – but he has finished out-of-the-money in the Mucho Macho Man, Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth to date. His 8 career starts match Shaq Diesel for most in the field. Equipment change to blinkers on Saturday, and it may be worth noting he’s had back-to-back bullet workouts since adding the hood.

#8 Mr. Ripple (Edgard Zayas // Saffie Joseph, Jr.) 30-1
Son of 2011 Florida Derby winner Dialed In has been right up on the pace in all 3 starts, including a pair of recent allowance placings. He was third to Florida Derby foe Cyclone Mischief in January, a race that also produced Tampa Bay Downs’ Sam F. Davis winner Litigate. One of 4 trainees for Joseph in this field as he seeks back-to-back Florida Derby wins (White Abarrio ’23).

#9 Cyclone Mischief (Javier Castellano // Dale Romans) 8-1
Fountain of Youth Stakes pacesetter and third-place finisher likely will have speed to his inside Saturday to set the table, though stands a chance to get hung wide on the clubhouse turn if he doesn’t establish some position. Made some amends in the FoY for a disastrous seventh in the Holy Bull as the 6-5 betting favorite. Jockey Javier Castellano jumps off Mage to ride. Castellano won this race with Constitution in 2014. Into Mischief also sired 2018 Florida Derby winner Audible.

#10 Fort Bragg (Joel Rosario // Tim Yakteen) 5-1
The last California-based Florida Derby winner was Nyquist in 2016, who brought championship credentials eastward. Fort Bragg exits non-threatening third and fifth-place finishes in the Los Al Futurity and San Felipe behind California’s top sophomore (and temporary stablemate) Practical Move. The Bob Baffert transfers have yet to find success on the 2023 trail. Tapit also sired 2014 Florida Derby winner Consititution. This one scratched from last Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby when it was assumed the Florida Derby was coming up with a short and non-competitive field to tackle Forte. That’s changed somewhat.

#11 Forte (Irad Ortiz, Jr. // Todd Pletcher) 4-5
The last 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to win the Florida Derby was Nyquist in 2016 – prior to that was Unbridled’s Song in 1996. Trainer Todd Pletcher owns the Florida Derby record with 6 victories all-time, most recently 2021 when Known Agenda also was piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr. Forte rides a 4-race winning streak that includes 3 Grade 1s and a Grade 2 in the local Fountain of Youth. His late-running style figures to get much more early speed to set it up here than in the FoY. If not for the unexpected large field size, he likely would have been the shortest priced favorite in this race since Spectacular Bid was .05 on the dollar in 1979. Still, he may go off as low as 2-5.

#12 Dubyuhnell (Jose Ortiz // Danny Gargan) 6-1
Remsen Stakes winner is 2-for-2 on wet tracks and well-beaten in a pair of races on fast tracks, most recently the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. The last Remsen winner at age 2 to add the Florida Derby was Thunder Gulch in 1994-’95. The Florida Derby will be his first trip over the Gulfstream oval, though he has been based at nearby training centers all winter. Jockey Jose Ortiz piloted Known Agenda to the 2021 Florida Derby winner’s circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Meet the Contenders: 2023 Arkansas Derby

March 28, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s $1.25 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park will be Race 12 on a program featuring 4 stakes races.

Let’s Meet the Contenders for the 2023 Arkansas Derby:

#1 Bourbon Bash (Reylu Gutierrez // D. Wayne Lukas) 15-1
Looks to snap a 7-race losing streak (6 of them in stakes) at longshot odds. Outran his 77-1 price in the Rebel Stakes when overcoming a tough trip to finish fifth. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas seeks his third Arkansas Derby win, but first since scoring in 1984-’85.

#2 Interlock Empire (David Cabrera // Kenny McPeek) 20-1
Son of 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire scored a deep-closing maiden win locally March 11 in his fourth lifetime start. Further in his pedigree for this race, his damsire in 2007 Arkansas Derby dominator Curlin. He’ll want a fast pace and is improving in each start.

#3 Harlocap (Ricardo Santana, Jr. // Steve Asmussen) 15-1
Battled up front in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds before giving way to sixth behind Arkansas Derby re-matcher Angel of Empire. That was the son of Triple Crown winner Justify’s first start since exiting the Bob Baffert barn. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4 Arkansas Derby winners include Super Stock most recently in 2021, also ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr. The duo also teamed here to win with eventual Belmont Stakes victor Creator in 2016. Harlop’s damsire is 2012 Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister.

#4 Two Eagles River (Nik Juarez // Chris Hartman) 10-1
Wire-to-wire winner last out in a mile allowance over Disarm, who came back to finish second last Saturday in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Owns two wins and two narrow runner-ups in 5 starts, making him less than a half-length from being 4-for-5 lifetime. Son of Preakness winner Cloud Computing is expected to be part of the early pace mix.

#5 Airtime (Cristian Torres // Robertino Diodoro) 15-1
Former claimer has won 2 straight and 3 of his last 4 starts, readying for the class test in stakes company for the first time. Claimed for $50,000 in late January while winning by more than 10 lengths that day on a muddy track. Won on fast going last out when pairing for the first time with the meet’s leading rider, Cristian Torres.

#6 Angel of Empire (Flavien Prat // Brad Cox) 9-2
Late-running upset winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds saw that race get mixed reviews last week; third-place finisher Two Phil’s returned to win the Jeff Ruby at Turfway, but the Louisiana Derby returnees floundered. Angel of Empire was runner-up to stablemate Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones over this track and should be comfortable in his return. He’s a son of 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire. Trainer Brad Cox won his first Arkansas Derby last year with Cyberknife.

#7 Rocket Can (Junior Alvarado // Bill Mott) 4-1
One of Florida’s top sophomores this winter, he won Gulfstream’s Holy Bull and was runner-up to Champion 2-Year-Old Forte in the Fountain of Youth. Little Rock resident Frank Fletcher owns and looks to win the big one in his backyard, and doesn’t find Forte in this field. He’s posted back-to-back bullet workouts since the Fountain of Youth from his Payson Park base, a training track notoriously deep and taxing that bolsters fitness.

#8 Reincarnate (John Velazquez // Tim Yakteen) 5-2
Santa Anita-based grandson of 2007 Arkansas Derby winner Curlin makes his second Oaklawn venture of the season. Front-runner was compromised at the start of the Grade 2 Rebel, dropped 11 lengths off the pace, and still rallied for a promising third-place finish. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who also rode in the Rebel, returns to Hot Springs in search of his first Arkansas Derby victory. The Grade 3 Sham winner should vie for favoritism in the betting.

#9 King Russell (Rafael Bejarano // Ron Moquett) 30-1
Last-out maiden breaker graduated in his fifth lifetime start and should appreciate the 1-1/8 miles trip. The son of Creative Cause is out of a full-sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can, so his pedigree matches his running style for distance optimism. Jockey Raphael Bejarano is a 2-time Arkansas Derby winner in 2009 and 2013.

#10 Red Route One (Tyler Gaffalione // Steve Asmussen) 3-1
Rallying runner-up in the Grade 3 Southwest and Grade 2 Rebel is the most accomplished local performer in this year’s Arkansas Derby. The deep closer adds blinkers, bringing about some curiosity how that will impact his early engagement in the race. The Gun Runner colt has a run-all-day feel and has had the misfortune of catching sloppy tracks in 3 of his last 4 starts. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4 Arkansas Derby winners include Super Stock most recently in 2021.

#11 Kolomio (James Graham // Keith Desormeaux) 30-1
Trainer Keith Desormeaux goes to his bench with this recent $50,000 claim from Santa Anita, opting to bypass the Arkansas Derby with his Rebel Stakes winner Confidence Game. Kolomio is from a turfy damside pedigree and has run on grass in his last 4 starts. His 2 dirt tries last July weren’t encouraging, but that Desormeaux re-claimed his former charge and puts him back on dirt is at least interesting for a barn apt to pop huge longshots on occasion in big races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1/ST BET AI Picks: Florida & Arkansas Derby | Saturday

March 31, 2023 | By 1/ST BET

Two critical Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown preps are in store Saturday at Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby and Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby. No springboard in history has produced more Kentucky Derby victors than the Florida Derby’s 34.

To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

//

Florida Derby // Gulfstream Park // Race 14 // 6:40 pm ET//

11-Forte (4-5 ML) | 30%
10-Fort Bragg (5-1 ML) | 17%
4-Mage (10-1 ML) | 14%
8-Mr. Ripple (30-1 ML) | 8%
6-Nautical Star (30-1 ML) | 6%

//

Arkansas Derby // Oaklawn Park // Race 12 // 7:50 pm ET//

6-Angel of Empire (9-2 ML) | 31%
4-Two Eagles River (10-1 ML) | 18%
7-Rocket Can (4-1 ML) | 14%
10-Red Route One (3-1 ML) | 8%
5-Airtime (15-1 ML) | 6%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel & Jeremy Plonk: Ark Derby Day Pick 4 Team Ticket

March 30, 2023 | By 1/ST BET

The Arkansas Derby Day card at Oaklawn Park features a quartet of stakes races, the principal two of which – the Derby and the Fantasy for Oaks hopefuls – are part of the late pick four. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet handicappers Jeff Siegel and Jeremy Plonk matched wits to put together their team ticket.

Oaklawn | Race 10 |Grade 3 $600,000 Fantasy Stakes
We’re in agreement that #6 Wet Paint is a logical single as she looks to sweep Oaklawn’s Martha Washington, Honeybee and Fantasy en route to the Kentucky Oaks. She was well-backed last week in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager as well as the Oaks-Derby doubles. Wet Paint got little pace help in her last two victories and won drawing away in both. She’s had strong works since.

Oaklawn | Race 11 |allowance
Three are in order for this leg, including #2 Breslau in search of a third straight win while rising in class each time. #7 Emerald Forest moves from one crazy-high percentage trainer at Fair Grounds in Ron Faucheux to another at Oaklawn in Robertino Diodoro. Hard to dispute Emerald Forest’s current form. #12 Favorite Outlaw comes out of the strongest race of any in here, a runner-up to promising 3-year-old stakes-winning sprinter Corona Bolt. It was a strong effort not giving way at all behind that front-runner, especially after a September layoff. His best effort lifetime came in his second start of the form cycle to open his career and hits that spot again Saturday as the one to beat.

Oaklawn | Race 12 | Grade 1 $1,250,000 Arkansas Derby
Our agreement in the main event is that both of us are standing against morning line favorite and Rebel third-place finisher Reincarnate. Jeff notes his recent work didn’t inspire, and Jeremy suggests he’ll be wildly underlaid on the tote because of his troubled start last out. We’ll shoot for some spread coverage here: #3 Harlocap and #4 Two Eagles River as longshots who will be on or near the lead early; along with logical contenders and later threats #6 Angel of Empire, #7 Rocket Can and #10 Red Route One.

Oaklawn | Race 13 | allowance
A capacity field of 12 wraps the big day and we’ll include two players in a bid to once again douse the money-burner #1 Knocker Down. The hard-bet tandem of Cox-Geroux will stretch this one out after 3 sprint losses at 1-5, 3-5 and 8-5 favoritism. #6 Back Ring Light exits a better-than-looks allowance third last out at 9 furlongs behind stakes veteran Barber Road. #11 Efficiency ran spottily last time and is the kind who can really relish the addition of blinkers, which will be employed for the first time while also dropping 5 pounds of weight from his most recent effort.

The Ticket:

6 with 12,7,2 with 10,7,6,4,3 with 6,11 = $15 for $.50 play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream Park | Saturday

March 29, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Gulfstream Park's Florida Derby Day card Saturday features 14 races, 10 of them stakes, culminating with the $1 million key Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown prep in the finale. But Race 13 just before the main event could be the day's best betting heat.

Field Depth:
STEADY ON and WINFROMWITHIN are graded stakes-placed. This listed stakes includes several listed winners. GRAY'S FABLE, WINFROMWITHIN and FORT WASHINGTON arguably have kept the strongest company lines over time.

Pace:
STRIKER, WINFROMWITHIN, CHURCHTOWN, ROARING FORTIES and COUNTY FINAL all have some interest in the front end. Several others would prefer to press the tempo. This pace should be well above-average and likely downright hot. It should give late runners their best chance to strut their stuff in the stretch.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-HE'SPUREGOLD: Despite several other races sprinkled between, he's won his last 3 turf miles, each time with a style about 3 lengths off the pace. Should save ground from the rail and Paco Lopez knows him well and rides aggressively. There should be a lot of early speed trying to drop over on him, tightening things up.

2-SOUPER DORMY: After fighting jockey Edgard Zayas last time in the Canadian Turf, the rider change to Emisael Jaramillo will be about trying to get him to relax. Poor efforts in 2 tries without Lasix on the formline are a concern without the medication again Saturday.

3-GRAY'S FABLE: Fourth beaten 2 lengths in this race last year, he comes into 2023 with the benefit of a prep for this race. Note last year he won second-off-the-layoff in this same form cycle. Late-running Joel Rosario should be a great fit and he's one to fear late.

4-STRIKER: Wired at Tampa behind legit fractions in February when going sprint-to-route for the first time. By War Front, should fit well again at these mile trips, but the pace will be a concern as to how much pressure he takes. A trio of bullet workouts since the '23 return makes you respect this lightly raced 5-year-old.

5-FORT WASHINGTON: Big-time closer walks out of the gate and often gives himself too much to do. The public rarely bets him anymore, which could be good news on Saturday if you like him, and I do. The 48-1/5 opening half-mile in the Canadian Turf gave him no pace help whatsoever and he still almost won it. This pace will cook up front and give Jose Ortiz every chance to time it. His only misfires have come on courses with a lot of give in them. The firmer the better Saturday.

6-STEADY ON: Just as FORT WASHINGTON was compromised by a slow pace in the Canadian Turf, STEADY ON had a valid alibi when having to overcome post 10 of 10. Better draw here puts the Todd Pletcher trainee absolutely in the hunt. The pace-presser could find himself with a lot of company and challenges in front of him. At expected shorter odds, it's a lot to overcome in terms of pace.

7-WINFROMWITHIN: He's lost margin in the stretch in 4 of his last 5 starts, but the time he held strongest was his lone mile bid during that span. Very consistent, but the pace scenario will make him work as hard as he's ever had to work.

8-LUCKY CURLIN: Claimed last time out Feb. 26 for $50,000, this is a tough step up in class. He's got some pace versatility, but you're calling upon a 3% jockey in 2023 to push all the right buttons in what could be a wild chase.

9-CHURCHTOWN: A wider draw and aggressive early rider in Luis Saez put the pressure on this early speedster to be hard-used from the gate. He's been off since December and has lost margin in the final call more times than not in his 9-race career. Bullet drills for conservative barn indicate he might be too fresh for his own good against this set-up.

10-ROARING FORTIES: Sprinter stretched out to wire Florida-breds in January's Sunshine Turf, but this will be a tougher task from a tough post. Should be among a vast group trying to cross over the face of the field into the clubhouse turn.

11- COUNTY FINAL: Turf sprinter picks a difficult spot to stretch out just from the pace heat standpoint, but less a post 11 draw. Since being claimed by Saffie Joseph in November, they've tried a series of different races from dirt sprints to turf sprints now to a turf mile trying to figure out where he fits. The 0-3 results leading into this don't inspire confidence.

12-DREAMS OF TOMORROW: A pace-presser or mid-pack runner in most of his starts, there's a likely chance he gets hung wide into the clubhouse turn from this post. Consistent sort never misfires and ran maybe the race of his life last out in December in allowance company at Tampa. Facing horses like Analyze It and Atone in allowance company give his running lines more strength than a lack of stakes appearances might suggest.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
STEADY ON is 6-6 in the superfecta in route races and it would be script for Todd Pletcher to have a huge undercard on a big day at Gulfstream like this.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FORT WASHINGTON is set up perfectly here for his consistent late run and has been 30-1, 11-1 and 13-1 in his last 3.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win FORT WASHINGTON. $20 exacta box FORT WASHINGTON and STEADY ON ($40)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eddie Olczyk: Florida Derby Day Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park

March 29, 2023 | By Eddie Olczyk

Gulfstream will have a $1 million-guaranteed pool in Saturday's late pick 5, which concludes with the Grade 1 $1 million Florida Derby.

It's all about Forte in the big one, but how do we get to him? Here's the early path I'm looking to travel as we await final scratches and track conditions on Saturday.

Race 10 // $150,000 Sand Springs
Ten older fillies and mares on turf open the sequence, and I'll use a trio of them. #2 Sweet Enough has won at the meet and drops in class. #6 Marketsegmenation also is a meet winner for the always-dangerous Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr. team in these turf races for the distaffers. Late-running #9 Perservancia was compromised by speedster Dalika on the Churchill turf last fall and can come back firiing.

Race 11 // $100,000 Sanibel Island
This group of 10 averages only 4 career starts among them and none has separated herself from the pack. With a couple of looming singles, let's buy the race.

Race 12 // $250,000 Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks
I'm taking the bold and confident single with #6 Atomically as she returns to 2-turning in her second start of the season. Stablemate #5 Miracle might help split the money intra-race and force many players to use multiple horses, which is to our advantage when singling.

Race 13 // $150,000 Appleton
A full field of 12 turf milers boils down to three for me. #2 Souper Dormy got a good number when winning a turf mile here two starts back and should be a solid price for lesser-backed, big-race connections. #3 Gray's Fable just missed vs. Souper Dormy over this trip in February and won second-off-the-layoff in 2022. #6 Steady On had a terrible post last time when nearly winning the Canadian Turf and makes logical sense with a better draw.

Race 14 // $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby
Forte stands out as the heavy favorite and a single.

The Ticket:
2,6,9 with ALL with 6 with 2,3,6 with 11

That's $45 if all 10 starters go in Race 11. Good luck, everybody!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby Picks

March 29, 2023 | By Jon White

Forte was the early victim of a rather cruel April Fool’s prank when post positions were drawn for the dozen 3-year-olds entered in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 1. Not surprisingly, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher was not pleased when bad luck determined that the champion colt would, barring scratches, commence his journey in the $1 million event from post 11.

“It’s a tremendous disadvantage statistically breaking from post 11 at Gulfstream Park [in a 1 1/8-mile race],” Pletcher was quoted as saying in a Daily Racing Form post-draw article written by Mike Welsch. “And it’s a shame post position can play such a significant factor in important races such as the Florida Derby.”

Welsch wrote that horses breaking from post 11 in races run at 1 1/8 miles on Gulfstream Park’s main track “have won only 2 of 49 starts, due in large part to the short run to the first turn since the track was reconfigured in 2006…Post positions 9-12 are a combined 9 for 284 here going a mile and one-eighth on the dirt since 2006.”

Actually, it was in the summer of 2004 when Gulfstream’s main track was reconfigured to a 1 1/8-mile oval, which was first used for racing conducted in 2005. But you get the point. As Pletcher said, from a statistical standpoint, post 11 is awful.

Does Forte’s dreaded post position mean that I’m going to pick against him? Nope. Not this time.

I thought I was being clever when I picked against Forte in Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4. I took a shot by putting Cyclone Mischief on top.

“You might think I’m crazy,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com in explaining why Cyclone Mischief was my choice to win the Fountain of Youth. “Maybe I am. But I’m thinking if there ever was a time to try and beat Forte and Blazing Sevens, it’s when they are both returning from a layoff.”

Well, even though Forte was coming off the bench, he not only won the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, he did so with authority by 4 1/2 lengths as a 1-2 favorite. To be perfectly candid, I felt like an idiot picking against him. Cyclone Mischief finished third at 15-1, almost six lengths behind Forte.

And so post 11 won’t keep from me from making Forte my top pick in the Florida Derby. I don’t want to feel like an idiot again after the Florida Derby. Besides, Forte has proven that he’s an elite racehorse. An outer post in the Florida Derby did not stop a couple of other elite racehorses, Big Brown and Barbaro, from winning the Florida Derby.

Breaking from post 12, Big Brown won by five lengths in 2008 as a 3-2 favorite while making only his third career start and his stakes debut.

Beginning from post 10, Barbaro prevailed by a half-length in 2006 as an 8-5 favorite.

As terrific as Forte looked in the Fountain of Youth, I find it hard to picture the Kentucky-bred Violence colt getting beat in the Florida Derby, even from post 11. But one must also remember that upsets do happen. For instance, just two weeks before the 1973 Kentucky Derby, even the great Secretariat got beat. Secretariat finished third to stablemate Angle Light and Sham in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial. And speaking of upsets, one only has to go back to last year’s Kentucky Derby for a whopper. Rich Strike shocked the racing world by winning at 80-1 in what was the second-biggest upset in the history of America’s longest continuously run sporting event.

If Forte is upset in the Florida Derby, I won’t be surprised if Mage wins it. Mage, who is 10-1 on the morning line, certainly fared much better than Forte in the draw for post positions. Mage is to start from post 4.

Mage finished fourth, nearly seven lengths behind Forte, in the Fountain of Youth. But I think Mage is capable of improving on that effort insofar as it was only his third career start and his first race around two turns.

The only Florida Derby entrants besides Forte lower than 10-1 on the morning line are Fort Bragg at 5-1, Dubyuhnell at 6-1 and Cyclone Mischief at 8-1.

But Cyclone Post drew post 9, Fort Bragg post 10 and Dubyuhnell post 12. With those post positions, I have no interest in going with one of them against Forte.

SoCal shipper Fort Bragg was scratched from the Grade III Sunland Derby last Sunday to run instead in the Florida Derby.

Keep in mind that if Fort Bragg does win the Florida Derby, or even runs well, it will flatter Practical Move. Fort Bragg finished fifth, 5 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Practical Move, in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4.

My selections for the Florida Derby are below:

1. Forte
2. Mage
3. Fort Bragg
4. Cyclone Mischief

ARKANSAS DERBY SELECTIONS

Oaklawn Park’s Grade I, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby has enticed a field of 11 to do battle at 1 1/8 miles this Saturday (April 1).

Reincarnate, who ranks No. 7 on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

My top pick is Angel of Empire, who is No. 6 on my Top 10. I find his 9-2 morning-line price a lot more appealing than Reincarnate’s 5-2.

Angel of Empire, trained by Brad Cox, first got on my radar when he finished second at 18-1 in Oaklawn’s one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day. Victory Formation, also conditioned by Cox, won in front-running fashion by three lengths as a 3-5 favorite. Cox mentioned after the race that he felt that Angel of Empire was going to relish going farther.

What happened when Angel of Empire did run farther in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 18? He rallied from ninth in the field of 14 to win by one length at 13-1. Now the Pennsylvania-bred colt once again is running 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby, a race his sire, Classic Empire, won in 2017.

Look, I get why so many people like Reincarnate in the Arkansas Derby. In his most recent start, he had a nightmarish trip and still managed to finish third in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track Feb. 25. Prior to that, the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt won Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes by a neck on dry land at odds of 16-1.

Reincarnate’s Rebel performance in defeat caught the attention of Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin, among many others.

“If you ask me what single moment stands out on the Derby trail this year from a visual standpoint, I would have to say it was the sight of Reincarnate powering down the stretch with that great extension and fluid strides to finish third in the Rebel after having just about everything go wrong for him in the race, which was his first on a sloppy track, first outside California and first in a new barn,” Haskin wrote this week. “You don’t have to win to show what you are, and although I was impressed with his courage and tenacity in winning the Sham Stakes after battling on the lead the whole way, I was even more impressed with him in the Rebel coming from ninth, a dozen lengths off the pace.”

Rocket Can certainly belongs on the list of Arkansas Derby contenders. He is 4-1 on the morning line. He won Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 4 in his 2023 debut, then ran second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth.

Stretch-runner Red Route One, the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, adds to the depth of Arkansas Derby contenders. He finished second to the talented Arabian Knight in a sloppy renewal of Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes on Jan. 28 in his first start at 3, then also ran second to Confidence Game in the Rebel, a half-length in front of Reincarnate.

My selections for the Arkansas Derby are below:

1. Angel of Empire
2. Reincarnate
3. Rocket Can
4. Red Route One

THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

Practical Move again is No. 1 this week. The San Felipe winner sparkled again in solo workout at Santa Anita last Sunday (March 26). He was timed going five furlongs in a bullet :59.20 while never being urged by the exercise rider.

“He was just cruising,” trainer Tim Yakteen said of the workout to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen. “You want to see energy and that’s what we’re seeing.”

You can watch Practical Move’s workout on XBTV: https://www.xbtv.com/video/practical...rch-26th-2023/

To further illustrate just how impressive Practical Move’s latest drill was, Yakteen reportedly timed the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.00. That was faster than any of the six workouts at that distance Sunday.

Geaux Rocket Ride, second in the San Felipe, worked six furlongs Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:13.00 for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella.

Skinner, third in the San Felipe, worked six furlongs Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:14.00 for trainer John Shirreffs.

The six-furlong bullet drill Sunday at Santa Anita was achieved by National Treasure, who stepped the distance in 1:12.20 for Yakteen. Forced to miss the San Felipe because of a foot bruise, National Treasure probably will make his next start in Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on April 8, according to Yakteen.

The point is that Practical Move was clocked GALLOPING OUT six furlongs faster than Geaux Rocket Ride, Skinner and National Treasure were timed in their workouts at the same distance.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Practical Move
2. Forte
3. Kingsbarns
4. Tapit Trice
5. Geaux Rocket Ride
6. Skinner
7. Angel of Empire
8. Reincarnate
9. Hit Show
10. Derma Sotogake

Kingsbarns, who remained undefeated by winning last Saturday’s Grade II Louisiana Derby, and Derma Sotogake, emphatic winner of the Group II UAE Derby last Saturday, are newcomers on my Top 10.

How about this? Pletcher trains No. 2 Forte, No. 3 Kingsbarns and No. 4 Tapit Trice. Talk about holding a strong hand going into the Kentucky Derby.

Kingsbarns, now undefeated in three career starts, is named for a golf course in Scotland. While the $800,000 auction purchase does lack racing experience, it is to his credit that he’s won at three different tracks: Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds.

Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby. But all three of his races had come on the same track, Santa Anita. Justify not only won the Kentucky Derby, he went on to capture the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to become the 13th Thoroughbred to sweep the coveted Triple Crown.

Kingsbarns showed a lot by being able to win at 1 3/16 miles last Saturday with just two races under his belt. And not only did he win the Louisiana Derby, he did so convincingly by 3 1/2 lengths, with a splendid gallop-out to boot.

Yes, Kingsbarns was able to control the race by being allowed to set a modest pace. But it’s not as if he needs the early lead in order to win. He came from off the pace in both of his first two races.

How about Kingsbarns’ Beyer Speed Figure pattern? He registered a 74 Beyer in his first start, then an 85, then a 95 in the Louisiana Derby.

Kingsbarns will be attempting to become just the fourth horse to win the Kentucky Derby having made three previous starts. The three to have accomplished this were the remarkable Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008 and Justify in 2018.

Additionally, Kingsbarns will go into the Kentucky Derby having not raced as a 2-year-old. Only two horses have ever won this race without starting at 2: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018.

Kingsbarns was my top pick in the Louisiana Derby. Pegged as the third choice on the morning line at 6-1, he was sent off as the 9-2 second choice in the betting.

I wrote this last week for Xpressbet.com: “I get the feeling that Kingsbarns might be a special talent, someone who possibly could win the Louisiana Derby and then go on to give a good account of himself in the Kentucky Derby. That’s why I put money on him at odds of 35-1 in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) on Feb. 12. I will make $7,000 if Kingsbarns happens to win the Kentucky Derby.”

The same day that I bet Kingsbarns in the future book, I put $200 on Practical Move at 83-1, which means I will make almost $17,000 if he wins the Kentucky Derby.

By the way, speaking of Kentucky Derby future book wagering, on the same day that I bet Practical Move and Kingsbarns, Hoosier Philly closed as the 11-1 second favorite among the 39 individual horses in Pool 4 of the KDFW. The favorite among the individual horses was Forte at 8-1. Yes, Hoosier Philly wasn’t that much bigger of a price than Forte!

At that time on Feb. 12, Hoosier Philly was undefeated in three career starts. Prior to Pool 4, I wrote for Xpressbet.com that I might put a little money on Hoosier Philly, but only if she was a big price. She was listed at 50-1 on the Pool 4 KDFW morning line. After Pool 4 closed and Hoosier Philly was 11-1, I wrote: “No way would I consider putting any money on her at such a ridiculously low price.”

And what has happened since Feb. 12? Hoosier Philly lost the Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes by 8 1/2 lengths when finishing third as a 2-5 favorite on Feb. 18. Last Saturday, Hoosier Philly lost again, this time in the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks by 15 1/4 lengths when finishing fourth as a 6-5 favorite.

Derma Sotogake debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after leading from start to finish in the UAE Derby, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths. The Japanese-bred colt is by Mind Your Biscuits.

Mind Your Biscuits won Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs (107 Beyer Speed Figure) and was a two-time winner of the Group I Dubai Golden Shaheen at about six furlongs. While Mind Your Biscuits was known for mainly being a sprinter/miler, he did win Churchill Downs’ Grade III Lukas Classic at 1 1/8 miles (108 Beyer).

Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby, which is run at about 1 3/16 miles, was 1:55.81. That made it the second-fastest UAE Derby since the race was moved to Meydan in 2010. Mendelssohn ran the fastest UAE Derby at Meydan when he ran up the score and won by 18 1/2 lengths, but he then finished 20th in Justify’s Kentucky Derby.

Horses to have competed in the UAE Derby are a combined 0 for 18 in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish by those 18 in the Kentucky Derby was Master of Hounds’ fifth in 2011. Master of Hounds finished second in the UAE Derby. China Visit’s sixth in 2000 is the best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a winner of the UAE Derby.

It appears that Derma Sotogake is very talented. As such, I do think he deserves a measure of respect in the Kentucky Derby despite the UAE Derby’s dismal record in the Kentucky Derby.

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM

The purpose of my Derby Strikes System (DSS), which I developed in 1999, is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.

Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby once were quite popular. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. However, through the years, many of the “Derby rules” were broken, which caused their popularity to wane.

I believe that it’s the marriage of the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”

A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to COVID, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was contested on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.

Now that Kingsbarns, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Two Phil’s (winner of last Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by 5 1/4 lengths in a 35-1 upset while recording a 101 Beyer Speed Figure) and Derma Sotogake are scheduled to make their next start in the May 6 Kentucky Derby, I can calculate their number of strikes in my Derby Strikes System (DSS).

It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.

Wild On Ice is another who is scheduled to make his next start in the Kentucky Derby, if his connections choose to go. It was announced Tuesday (March 28) that Wild On Ice has been made eligible to the 2023 Triple Crown races with a late $6,000 payment that was due Monday (March 27).

Joel Marr trains Wild On Ice. Marr was the trainer of New Mexican-bred win machine Peppers Pride, who never lost in 19 lifetime starts.

The connections of Dura Erede and Continuar, who finished second and third, respectively, in the UAE Derby, have said that the plan is for them to run next in the Kentucky Derby.

The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.

The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.

History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.

The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).

Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.

The strikes for Continuar, Derma Sotogake, Disarm, Dura Erede, Jace’s Road, Kingsbarns, Two Phil’s and Wild On Ice are listed below:

ZERO STRIKES

Derma Sotogake
Dura Erede

ONE STRIKE

Disarm (Category 2)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)

TWO STRIKES

Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)

THREE STRIKES

Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)

WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973

Many years after I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999, racing enthusiast Ryan Stillman suggested that I should take a look at the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners prior to 1999. Again, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I could not go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because, as mentioned earlier, two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.

Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.

The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:

2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money

**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING

Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is being offered this week, with $2 win and exacta wagering available.

Be advised, betting closes a day earlier than usual. Pool 6 will close on Saturday (April 1) at 6 p.m. ET, prior to the Grade I Florida Derby and Grade I Arkansas Derby.

Pool 6 wagering will begin at noon ET on Thursday (March 30).

The number of individual horses being offered for the 2023 Kentucky Derby has increased to the benefit of horseplayers. Pool 6 consists of 39 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds option.” In past years, it would have been 23 individual horses instead of 39.

Considering I have Pool 4 bets on Practical Move at 83-1, Kingsbarns at 35-1 and Geaux Rocket Ride at 25-1, the only horse I’m taking a look at possibly putting some money on is National Treasure, who is listed at 50-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line.

National Treasure missed the March 4 San Felipe Stakes due to a foot bruise, but his recent workouts at Santa Anita have been excellent.

Forte is the KDFW Pool 4 morning-line favorite at 5-2. National Treasure was good enough to finish third when Forte won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last Nov. 4. Considering the considerable difference in Pool 4 morning line odds of 5-2 for Forte and 50-1 for National Treasure, I think National Treasure is worth putting some money on, as long as he actually goes off in the neighborhood of 50-1.

National Treasure is likely to make his next start in Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on April 8. If he wins or even finishes second in the Blue Grass, which certainly is not out of the question, I think something around 50-1 on him in the Kentucky Derby would be nice to have.

BloodHorse’s Byron King has National Treasure ranked No. 5 in his Kentucky Derby Dozen this week, below only Forte, Tapit Trice, Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride.

“Since being withdrawn from the San Felipe with a tender foot, this colt has fired one fast drill after another, with his latest, a six-furlong move in 1:12.20 on Sunday [March 26] being among his most visually impressive,” King wrote of National Treasure. “He outworked Recincarnate for five furlongs, then breezed an additional eighth on his own. His connections want him on tilt for his final [Kentucky] Derby prep in the Blue Grass. Out of action since finishing third in the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, and without any [Kentucky] Derby points, he may need a 1-2 finish to garner sufficient points to make the Derby.”

King’s point that National Treasure currently does not have any Kentucky Derby points is why if I do make a future wager on National Treasure this week, it will be a rather small one, which is okay if he’s around 50-1.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 6 of the 2023 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Angel of Empire (30-1)
2. Arctic Arrogance (80-1)
3. Blazing Sevens (50-1)
4. Bourbon Bash (99-1)
5. Classic Car Wash (80-1)
6. Confidence Game (25-1)
7. Continuar (99-1)
8. Cyclone Mischief (80-1)
9. Derma Sogogake (40-1)
10. Disarm (40-1)
11. Dreamlike (80-1)
12. Dubyuhnell (80-1)
13. Fort Bragg (80-1)
14. Forte (5-2)
15. Geaux Rocket Ride (20-1)
16. Hayes Strike (80-1)
17. Hit Show (20-1)
18. I Don’t Get It (99-1)
19. Instant Coffee (20-1)
20. Jace’s Road (80-1)
21. Kingsbarns (20-1)
22. Mage (80-1)
23. Mandarin Hero (80-1)
24. Mendelssohns March (99-1)
25. National Treasure (50-1)
26. Practical Move (8-1)
27. Raise Cain (40-1)
28. Red Route One (25-1)
29. Reincarnate (20-1)
30. Rocket Can (30-1)
31. Shadow Dragon (99-1)
32. Skinner (30-1)
33. Slip Mahoney (80-1)
34. Sun Thunder (80-1)
35. Tapit Trice (8-1)
36. Two Eagles River (99-1)
37. Two Phil’s (40-1)
38. Verifying (30-1)
39. Wild On Ice (80-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Olds (15-1)

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Art Collector and Country Grammer, who ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in last week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, both lost last Saturday (March 25). Art Collector ran second in Fair Grounds’ New Orleans Classic. Country Grammer finished seventh in the Group I Dubai World Cup.

And so there is a new No. 1 this week. It’s Elite Power, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning male sprinter. He won the Group III Riyadh Dirt Sprint on Feb. 25 in his first start since his victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint last Nov. 5.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 297 Elite Power (19)
2. 247 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 239 Art Collector (10)
4. 190 West Will Power (1)
5. 151 Secret Oath (1)
6. 129 Cody’s Wish
7. 127 Last Samurai (1)
8. 119 Country Grammer (1)
9. 66 Defunded
10. 59 Nest

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

Forte heads into the Florida Derby ranked as the No. 1 3-year-old in the land.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 357 Forte (34)
2. 279 Practical Move (1)
3. 252 Tapit Trice
3. 222 Kingsbarns (1)
5. 132 Confidence Game
6. 103 Two Phil’s
7. 97 Rocket Can
8. 82 Angel of Empire
8. 82 Hit Show
10. 61 Derma Sotogake

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Jornalero 6-1 A Ascencio, Jr. A Sigala
2 #1 Classy Moon 5-2 F I Danley R Ramirez
3 #1 Rock Star Queen 5-2 W T Giles A A Ramos
4 #9 Winner Takes It All 5-1 R Mendoza S Becerra, Jr.
5 #1 Wish for a King 7-2 R G Armendariz, Jr. R Ramirez
6 #7 Cc Uptown Eagle 4-1 W T Giles A A Ramos
7 #5 Lets Leave 5-1 E Valenzuela F Calderon
8 #8 Miss Hi Tide 4-1 W T Giles A A Ramos
9 #10 Kj Daddys Money 3-1 W T Giles A A Ramos

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Sunland Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Jornalero 6-1 A Ascencio, Jr. A Sigala
2 #1 Classy Moon 5-2 F I Danley R Ramirez
3 #1 Rock Star Queen 5-2 W T Giles A A Ramos
4 #9 Winner Takes It All 5-1 R Mendoza S Becerra, Jr.
5 #1 Wish for a King 7-2 R G Armendariz, Jr. R Ramirez
6 #7 Cc Uptown Eagle 4-1 W T Giles A A Ramos
7 #5 Lets Leave 5-1 E Valenzuela F Calderon
8 #8 Miss Hi Tide 4-1 W T Giles A A Ramos
9 #10 Kj Daddys Money 3-1 W T Giles A A Ramos

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 R King Kong 1-1 G S Bennett M Meneses
2 #2 San Costantino 3-1 M Bowersock R D Allen, Jr.
3 #6 Donna Lirica 5-1 A Cordero M Meneses
4 #8 Alexis N Niko 5-2 M McGoey J Alicea
5 #2 Chica Boom 5-2 R Gracida S Camacho
6 #4 One Tough Dame 7-5 G S Bennett J C Ferrer
7 #1 Southpaw Mike 10-1 B McCarthy M Rowland
8 #7 Baby Boomer 9-5 G S Bennett S Camacho
9 #2 Irish Kitten 5-2 J Arriagada S Camacho