Friday 5/5/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Charles Town - Race #6

#1 Strong Magic	The winner of his last was DQ'ed, elevating this guy to a cheap maiden claiming win, but he has already turned in two pretty decent efforts and may not be all that far off what it would take to land this. Think he has some appeal.
#7 King T'Challa	He has some competitive running lines, but he also settles for slices with some regularity and brings a 1-for-33 overall slate with him to this one. His better stuff would do, but I find it easy to believe he'll run into a couple of them who are too tough tonight.
#6 Dancin in Dubai	I guess he's probably supposed to win this on the drop after a decent effort for twice this price, but he has already had several chances with similar company, and the number on the board isn't likely to be all that appealing.
Race Summary	Lots of big-time racing today and tomorrow, but if you're like me and will be hanging around tonight to put some finishing touches on your Derby Day plans, there are a couple semi-interesting potential plays late on the card. Strong Magic got put up after the fact for his graduation win, but I think he is a sneaky good fit right back with winners.

Charles Town - Race #7

#2 Azzurra	I worry a bit about her recent tendency to finish underneath, but she has mostly been in tougher stakes spots, and I think she's going to find a really cozy trip tracking the speed near the inside.
#4 My Flicker	She can be tough in here, but I am not sure her local form is quite as good as what she has turned in on larger courses like Parx or Laurel. She obviously classes up well with the locals, but I worry she's overbet based on what she can do here. Her style fits the shape.
#3 Alpine Moon	Considered her on top and want her on the multi-race tickets, as I think she's probably capable of something better than she showed going long in stakes company last out, and she would benefit if all the forward players knocked heads early.
Race Summary	Azzurra gets a pretty solid lean in here for me, especially if My Flicker gets bet. That one can win, but I wouldn't take her at a local price based on the strength of her efforts elsewhere. Azzurra might draft in behind the pace and get the run of the race as the second or third choice. I guess #7 Baby Man could roll these, too -- interesting race.

Charles Town - Race #8

#7 Voice of Now	He proved a good fit with the locals last time out, and he should get another really good go of things while racing near the pace. Price isn't going to be much here, but I think he's going to be really tough in the finale.
#6 Flash of Day	There isn't a ton of serious speed signed on in here, and I could see him finding a decent spot early and using his one-paced style to stick around after getting first jump on the fading speed? Looking to get these top two in the picture together.
#1 Real Rambo	His debut wasn't bad over the local footing back in January, but I'm not super thrilled to jump aboard while the continued drop down the ladder leads him to the basement tonight. Obviously wouldn't be any surprise, but I lean to standing against tonight.
Race Summary	Think #5 Sparkling Shire has a claim on this, too, but Voice of Now probably hits hard enough to land this. He classed up well here last time out, and he might have a tiny bit of room to come forward in the second start of the season.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#5 DANGER RANGER (7-2)	Validated big upset with deceptively good follow-up try for this barn.
#7 GLOBES (3-1)	Rallied widest, led at 3/16 pole, flattened out in route race, 7F should suit.
#1 FIRST TEAM (8-1)	Won at this level and distance after five months away, draws the rail.
Race Summary	DANGER RANGER awakened on the barn switch two starts back, breaking his maiden at 25-1 odds with a career-best speed figure. He raced 4-wide most of the way in his follow-up start, loomed boldly at the quarter pole and finished third. Let’s make him today’s Best Bet.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#4 ACAMAR (8-1)	Overhauled by 4-to-5 fave and others in route, shorter distance could be key.
#6 IMPOSTER SYNDROME (5-2)	Good fit at this level, had early troubled as twice-beaten favorite.
#2 CHENTI (9-2)	‘Churned on’ to finish third after traffic troubles on final turn, gets class relief.
Race Summary	ACAMAR was hellbent on making the lead, inched ahead in mid-stretch but was ‘swallowed up’ going a route of ground on the turf. He cuts back to 7F for his third start of the year and is worth a win and place bet at 8-1 on the morning line.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#7 KRABI (12-1)	Useful debut, been working on turf, price shot with second-time Lasix.
#1 NO ACTION (3-1)	Led clear in 12-horse field at this level, got caught late.
#3 BEAUTY OF THE SEA (7-5)	Stalked pace 4-wide, led between calls in stretch, held second.
Race Summary	KRABI was gathering some momentum in a main-track sprint but was bottled up looking for room in the stretch. She worked twice on the Palm Meadows grass since her debut and is worth a price stab in a high-percentage barn. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 6	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $10,800 • Post: 8:26P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. ALWAJD is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALWAJD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BO RUNKLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	ALWAJD	2/1	9/5
2	BO RUNKLE	3/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	BO RUNKLE	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	57	48.0	48.0	42.0
5	CRIMSON LILLE	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	48	43.8	33.4	25.9
3	ALL THE WAY MAE	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	48	41	43.2	24.6	15.1
6	SIMPLE JUSTICE	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	55	43	35.8	36.4	25.4
7	ALWAJD	7	2/1	Trailer	64	61	57.4	49.8	47.3
4	BACKSTRETCHBEAUTY	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	66	50	40.8	32.6	25.1
1	SIRENETTA	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	25	40.3	26.9	15.4

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $4,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $9,400 • Post: 12:55
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GRANDIOSE SUMMER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WHAT A WAY TO GO: Today is a s print and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AMAZING FLYER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's t hird or fourth start after a layoff. MISS CONTINENTAL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	GRANDIOSE SUMMER	4/1	4/1
6	WHAT A WAY TO GO	3/1	9/2
3	AMAZING FLYER	5/1	7/1
4	MISS CONTINENTAL	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	GRANDIOSE SUMMER	5	4/1	Trailer	62	55	55.6	50.8	44.3
6	WHAT A WAY TO GO	6	3/1	Trailer	63	58	25.0	55.0	51.0
3	AMAZING FLYER	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	49.0	48.0	42.5
4	MISS CONTINENTAL	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	55	51	44.8	44.4	36.9
2	MUCH ABOUT ONE	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	33.8	12.2	0.7
8	LA DELHOMME'S SHOW	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.4	21.8	11.3
7	SWIVEL HIPS	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: MISS MANDAUE (10/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Daniel - Trainer: Trejo Amalio R], YOUGOTTAWANTIT (9/2) [Jockey: Morales Allyssa - Trainer: Howey Quinn].

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $500000 Class Rating: 93

EIGHT BELLES S. PRESENTED BY SYSCO - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $300 EACH, WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $7,500 AT TIME OF ENTRY. $2,500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX; $2,500 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $500,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 MUNNYS GOLD 6/5

# 3 OLIVIA TWIST 12/1

# 5 GRAND LOVE 15/1

MUNNYS GOLD has a respectable shot to take this race. This filly has posted some nice finishes in her last several starts. Is worth careful consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (111 average) at today's distance and surface recently. With a strong jockey who has won at a strong 20 percent clip over the last month. This has to be one of the top picks. OLIVIA TWIST - Fincher has a sharp win percent with horses running in dirt sprint races. Has to be considered based on the very good speed rating posted in the last affair. GRAND LOVE - Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this filly. She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:23pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#7 STRIKE ME DOWN (ML=4/1)
#5 PSYCHEDELIC SHACK (ML=6/1)
#3 SPEAK UNITY (ML=6/1)


STRIKE ME DOWN - A definite class advantage goes to this horse. A good sign he will be very competitive in this grass race. Have to give this race horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figs on the turf at this distance. This entrant collects a lot of money per start. I believe he can add to that bankroll in this field. PSYCHEDELIC SHACK - When this jock and conditioner combine forces you have to take a look. Karamanos and Eppler have been fantastic together. SPEAK UNITY - When Rosado and Gaudet team up on equines the ROI has been fantastic at +30. Rosado rode this racer for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time. This gelding is in excellent condition right now. Ran first last time out and comes back promptly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ZYRAMID (ML=5/2), #9 PREMIERE CHOICE (ML=9/2),

ZYRAMID - Tough to bet on this racer this time out. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you bet on him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. PREMIERE CHOICE - In the last affair this steed finished tenth. Doesn't look promising for his chances this time. Should have at least finished in the money in the last 60 days in a short distance clash to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 STRIKE ME DOWN on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,5,7] with [3,5,7] with [3,5,6,7,8] with [3,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - SA - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 5, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SEAWARD 7/2
# 1 HOT DAME 9/5
# 5 PELLETIER 4/1

I favor SEAWARD here. Hernandez has this mare racing well and is a formidable selection based on the decent Equibase Speed Figs put up in route races recently. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Colon will most likely have this mare in excellent position to win the affair. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved sharply to the front end recently. HOT DAME - Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Is a solid choice - given the 83 Equibase Speed Fig from her most recent race. PELLETIER - Could best this group based on the speed fig - 78 - of her last effort. Has garnered strong speed figs in dirt route races in the past.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race #3 - Post: 5:23pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#6 ROUBAIX (ML=12/1)
#10 SQUARE FUN (ML=12/1)
#5 ANNIE'S HOPE (ML=12/1)


ROUBAIX - This should be an easier task than what she was asked last time out against 'open' company. This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter distance and should promote her chances to win. Faced tougher last time out at Turf Paradise. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of probable winners in this race. SQUARE FUN - The April 7th event at Santa Anita was at a class level of (82). Dropping down the ladder based on class drastically, so she should be in a good position to win. I think that the addition of blinkers today will keep her mind on the race at hand. ANNIE'S HOPE - You have to consider the solid works of late. The last time I saw this horse was at Santa Anita in a race with an Equibase class figure of 87. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in this event. Lots of trouble last time out. This time around Fresu should keep her clean so she runs a good race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 MAGIC GAME (ML=5/2), #4 GOLDEN MICROPHONE (ML=3/1), #3 SMOOVE AS SILK (ML=4/1),

MAGIC GAME - Just don't think she is priced right at the likely odds. GOLDEN MICROPHONE - I just don't have a positive sensation about this steed in this event. SMOOVE AS SILK - This filly hasn't had any strong efforts in short distance races in the last two months. Common fig last time out at Santa Anita at 1 mile. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #6 ROUBAIX to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more