Friday 5/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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BEN BURNS

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians -113 M Liberatore (LHP), S Bieber (RHP) Must Start

This game falls roughly into the pick'em range but I believe that the Guardians will have a clear advantage.

While the Guardians enjoyed a day off, the Cardinals played yesterday. They haven't had a day off since back on May 11th.

Bieber gets the call for Cleveland and he's been solid all season. Last time out, he held the Mets to two runs through eight complete innings.

Bieber has been particularly stingy here at Progressive Field. In three home starts, he's got a 2.41 ERA. In his last start here, he tossed six shutout innings, striking out nine. Bieber is backed by a Cleveland bullpen which has a 2.28 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home.

Liberatore is making just his second start of the season. For his career, he's got a poor 5.53 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.

This price could easily be higher. Expect Cleveland to improve to 19-10 the past few seasons, when coming off a shutout loss.

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BRYAN LEONARD

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians Total Under 3.5 (+105) M Liberatore (LHP), S Bieber (RHP) Must Start
922 St Louis at Cleveland

PLAY CLEVELAND TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3.5

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ANDREW MCINNIS

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Milwaukee Brewers -124 A Wood (LHP), F Peralta (RHP) Must Start
The Brewers host the Giants tonight, with Freddy Peralta getting the start on the mound. Despite starting the season out playing very well, Peralta is looking for a bounce-back game tonight after poor performances against two good batting lineups in the Cardinals and Rays. He has a respectable 4.15 ERA on the season. The bats of the Brewers will also look to bounce back after coming off getting the shutout against the Giants in a bullpen game, where they faced six different pitchers. The Brewers have been solid at home this year with a 15-10 record, while the Giants are 10-14 on the road. The teams have split their four meetings on the year. I think this is a great bounce-back spot for Milwaukee and Peralta, and they will come out fired up to get the win tonight.

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RALPH MICHAELS

Free WNBA Basketball Pick Today: Dallas Wings -6.0 (-110)
WNBA - Actual client release
2* Dallas -6 Seattle

We played against Seattle in game #1 and said we would continue to do so early. The Storm lost Sue Bird to retirement and have no PG and are one of the 3 worst teams in the league. Seattle shot only 32.1% in their opener losing by 41 to Las Vegas.

Dallas made the playoffs LY but still had a coaching change. They beat Atlanta in their opener winning by 7 as a 1.5 pt Fav while holding the Dream to 35.4% and forcing 10 TO's.

The Dallas D may force 20+ YTOs in this game.

WNBA teams off a home loss by 20+ as a Home Dog are 27.3% ATS

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DWAYNE BRYANT

915 Houston Astros
916 Oakland Athletics

Play: OVER 8.5 (-115)

List Pitchers: Brown & Kaprielian

I like the situational aspect of this play in that these two starting pitchers just faced tonight's opponent in their last start. Hunter Brown faced Oakland at home on Saturday and only allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings while striking out 9. And James Kaprielian faced these Astros on Sunday, allowing just 1 run in 5 innings. Hitters on both sides will adjust to what they just saw from these two. Now, I still don't expect much from Oakland offensively, but they should be able to produce a few runs this time around. And Houston's hitters should really step up this time around. The Astros got shutout in their last two games and this game looks like a great spot for an offensive explosion. The Oakland bullpen is usually good for runs as well.

Note that Houston beat Oakland 2-0 to end last weekend's series. The OVER is 7-0 this season when Oakland got shutout in its last game against its current opponent. These seven games went OVER by a whopping 6.9 runs per game, and the lowest tally was 11 total runs.

Also note that Oakland only managed 3 hits in yesterday's game. The OVER is 8-1 this season (4-0 at home) when the A's had 4 or fewer hits in their previous game. The four home games went OVER by an average of 5.9 runs per game with 9 being the fewest total runs scored.

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THE GOLD SHEET

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Los Angeles Angels -143 R Detmers (LHP) Must Start
Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 0-3 record would indicate. In his eight starts, he's only allowed more than three earned runs on two occasions. Detmers is in the top-15th percentile among pitchers in strikeout rate and whiff rate this season. He hasn't allowed a home run in any of his last four starts. His expected ERA (4.06) is almost a full run better than his actual ERA (4.87). Luzardo probably deserves a small edge in the starting pitcher matchup, but the Angels should have the advantage just about everywhere else. LA had off yesterday while Miami is traveling in from Colorado. The Marlins used six relievers in yesterday's loss. Andrew Nardi and Huascar Brazoban have pitched on back-to-back days entering Friday, with Brazoban taking the loss yesterday. The Angels are hitting .283 against left-hand pitching this season (No. 6 in MLB) with a .349 on-base percentage (No. 6) and a 120 wRC+ (No. 6). The Angels have won six of their last seven, and all of those have come against better competition than Miami.

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COVERS FREE MLB Picks

Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+170) Cubs
Suzuki has the best batting average on the Cubs roster against the four-seam fastball, and he's seeing a pitcher that essentially has two pitches, with the four-seam making up over half. Doubling Greene's matchup issue here is that his secondary pitch also happens to be a pitch that Suzuki crushes.

White Sox first five -0.5 (-110)
The White Sox rank near the bottom of the majors in OPS, but they tend to hit much better against lefties, batting .251 with a slugging percentage of .414. The Tigers are sending struggling southpaw Joey Wentz to the mound tonight. Wentz has an atrocious 7.45 ERA across nine starts, and his expected batting average of .287 and an expected ERA of 5.79 suggests more ugly performances in the future.

Joe Musgrove o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104) Padres
Musgrove faces a Yankees lineup that is far from immune to the strikeout. Across the last 10 days, they’ve posted a 25.9% K-rate (sixth) against right-handed pitching. He appears fully ramped up and back to speed after throwing exactly 97 pitches in each of his last two starts after throwing no more than 81 in his first three appearances.

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COVERS FREE WNBA Picks

Copper Under 18.5 points (-115)
Copper is averaging 17.5 points per game so far this season, and that came against the Phoenix Mercury and the Minnesota Lynx, who are not anywhere near the Mystics’ tier defensively. While the ball-hawking Brittney Sykes won’t guard Copper straight up, her mere presence will impact Copper’s ability to drive and should help hold her below what is an oddly juiced 18.5-point prop.

Williams Under 10.5 points (-115)
The Mystics were the No.1 overall defence in the WNBA in 2022, with a defensive rating of 96. That defence was largely built around having numerous bulldog defenders on the perimeter, and Ariel Atkins and Natasha Cloud are back this years and as sharp as ever. Getting Elena Delle Donne back in full form has also been huge. Williams has averaged 8.5 points through two games with Chicago, and I’m expecting that or less against this stout Washington guard rotation.

Ogunbowale Over 22.5 points (-125)
Arike Ogunbowale is as talented as they come and was quick to remind anyone who’d forgotten in the offseason with her opening-day 27-point game against the Atlanta Dream. Arike averaged 19.7 points per game last season, but when given full tick like she was in the opener, she’s proven capable of even more. Two years ago, when her minutes were higher and she was the unquestioned No. 1 scorer, she averaged 22.8 points per game. If her 39 minutes against the Dream are any indication, Arike is going to produce at career-best levels this season.