Saturday 7/29/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#3 ESKIMO STREET (10-1)	Longshot stab off well-bet debut at notch above, gets new rider.
#7 KRABI (EVEN)	Raced wide and ‘stayed on willingly’ to finish second, ahead of ‘Eskimo.’
#8 SONG AND TAP (8-1)	Adds blinkers for high percentage sprint-to-route barn.
Race Summary	ESKIMO STREET worked forwardly for her debut, attracted serious betting attention but showed little at a higher level. She gets Lasix again and is a wake-up candidate in a suspect field. Bet to win and place and play a 3-7-8 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#2 RASMALAI (2-1)	Lightly-raced 6-year-old can maximize her speed in this spot.
#7 DIGNIFIED (8-5)	Even effort while wide in fast-paced 7F sprint on ‘off’ track, drops off claim.
#1 SHEZA HAPPY GIRL (8-1)	Hit board in 12 of 24 starts at Gulfstream, alert break the key.
Race Summary	RASMALAI could be long gone on the lead at a distance that she conquered the only time she tried it in her career. She was clear at the eighth pole at 5-1/2F last out but got caught by an 11-1 shot. Bet to win and place and play a 2-7-ALL trifecta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#10 FORT ATTITUDE (4-1)	In tight at key juncture on rail, recovered well, today’s Best Bet.
#4 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR (7-2)	Often in contention despite troubled starts, tries longer sprint.
#2 NATURAL VIBES (6-1)	Broke maiden in last start in May to become lone 6-1/2F winner in field.
Race Summary	FORT ATTITUDE stalked the favorites from the inside, tried to squeeze through a rail opening in the stretch but steadied while the winner was in full flight in mid-track. He regrouped to finish willingly and gallop out in front, a good sign as he goes an extra half-furlong from an outside post. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park

PURCHASE

Ellis Park - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / Super Hi-5
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 12:17
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SAPPHIRE NIGHTS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAPPHIRE NIGHTS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	SAPPHIRE NIGHTS	1/1	1/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SAPPHIRE NIGHTS	2	1/1	Front-runner	56	53	70.6	50.8	47.8
4	WRECK IT RUBY	4	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	50.9	34.6	31.1
5	TONIC AND GIN	5	15/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	28.4	20.4
6	REDHEADEDSTRANGER	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.5	23.7	18.7

Unknown Running Style: GONE WITH THE WYN (5/1) [Jockey: Court Jon Kenton - Trainer: O'Neill Doug F], READY FOR TROUBLE (4/1) [Jockey: Arrieta Francisco - Trainer: Hartman Chris A], AUTISM COMPASSION (8/1) [Jockey: Talamo Joseph - Trainer: Engler Jeff

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Great FallsPURCHASE

Great Falls - Race 7	$2 W-P-S / $3 Exacta / $3 Quinella $2 Trifecta ($1 Box) $2 Superfecta ($1 Box)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 3:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CAJUN FIRE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAJUN FIRE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. QUALITY GRANDSON: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DREAMED IT: Horse is dropping into a race whi ch has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. EXTREMELY WICKED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	CAJUN FIRE	9/2	4/1
4	QUALITY GRANDSON	3/1	6/1
3	DREAMED IT	7/1	7/1
6	EXTREMELY WICKED	4/1	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CAJUN FIRE	5	9/2	Front-runner	62	60	47.0	32.8	24.8
3	DREAMED IT	3	7/1	Stalker	64	57	0.0	37.7	26.2
6	EXTREMELY WICKED	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	53	53	55.8	48.0	42.5
4	QUALITY GRANDSON	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	57	51	28.0	49.0	45.5
7	GEBO	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	40	0.0	36.8	25.8
2	JOHNNY JUDE	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	36	0.0	35.0	28.5
1	SHE GLITTERS	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	37	0.0	31.4	19.9
8	OFF AGAIN ON AGAIN	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	20.6	6.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#10 CAPTURE THIS (ML=8/1)
#7 BOLT OF PARADISE (ML=5/1)
#9 NEWTON'S STAR (IRE) (ML=4/1)


CAPTURE THIS - Notched a nice turf number on June 17th at Monmouth Park. A repeat today, and this one has a great shot to win. Racing at a similar level as last race on Jun 17th at Monmouth Park. I think Ortega has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances in this event. BOLT OF PARADISE - Last time, was entered in a race at Monmouth Park in a race with a class rating of 76. Dropping a significant amount in class rating this time puts her in a solid position right here. NEWTON'S STAR (IRE) - Looking at today's class rating, this campaigner is up against an easier field than last time around the track at Gulfstream Park. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average Equibase class figure in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DIXIE GROOVE (ML=7/2), #5 SILVER SPRINTER (ML=9/2), #1 JSK LUCKY'S PUSHPA (ML=8/1),

DIXIE GROOVE - Doubtful that the speed figure she earned on Jul 8th will hold up in this affair. SILVER SPRINTER - One should normally not invest in a mount in the next run after finishing off the board following a very long layoff. This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of efforts. Pedestrian speed fig last out at Monmouth Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. JSK LUCKY'S PUSHPA - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CAPTURE THIS - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this filly's last one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 CAPTURE THIS is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at North Dakota Horse Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 2 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5500 Class Rating: 52

FOR THREE YEARS OLD AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 VLOCK 8/1
# 1 CHAMA 2/1
# 4 MISSEN THE POINT 3/1

My selection in this contest is VLOCK especially at a long price. Looks formidable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races as of late. The speed fig of 55 from his most recent contest looks formidable in here. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this field. CHAMA - Ought to go to the front end and could never look back. Must be in form if the handler is bringing her back so soon. MISSEN THE POINT - Has been running admirably lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. Should be given a chance - I like the figs from the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $136500 Class Rating: 81

INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 YAQUI VALLEY 8/1
# 8 TRADE IMBALANCE 9/5
# 7 MOONLIGHT 2/1

I think YAQUI VALLEY is a very strong selection and is a competitive value wager given the line. Looks competitive against this group of horses and ought to be one of the front-runners. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. This horse ought to be wagered on at the expected big odds. TRADE IMBALANCE - Recently Prat has been hot which may give the edge to this colt. Prat has one of the strongest jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to wagerers +37 percent. MOONLIGHT - Pletcher and Ortiz have won 28 percent of their races giving this horse a quite good chance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#9 SPEEDY JOHNY (ML=5/1)


SPEEDY JOHNY - Taking a drop in Equibase class figure points from her July 9th race at Woodbine. Based on that data, I will give this animal the edge. Crawford and Buttigieg partnered with one another are a horse gambler's friend. Trying to break maiden moving from a turf race to the dirt. I think Buttigieg will have her in good condition for today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 T'PRING (ML=5/2), #8 WHISPER ME A SONG (ML=3/1), #3 FANG MEIN LIED (ML=6/1),

T'PRING - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most every time. More than enough chances at Woodbine with no sojourns to the victory podium. Hasn't been winning lately when made the morning-line choice. Take a look at her record. WHISPER ME A SONG - This filly hasn't had any recent success in short distance contests. Tough to wager on her in this affair. A bit of a lackluster try when this filly finished eighth. This runner ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that fig. FANG MEIN LIED - This mount will likely be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish line.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 SPEEDY JOHNY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip