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Wednesday 8/9/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Nats are 37-19 against the runline as road underdogs this season while the Phillies are 11-29 against the runline as home favorites.
Nats left-hander MacKenzie Gore has posted a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. The Phillies are 6-15 against the runline as favorites and facing a left-handed starter (2-9 as home favorites).
Bet this free pick on the Nationals +1.5 with 2% of your bankroll.
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Tampa Bay Rays as a -147 home favorite against the St Louis Cardinals. I got no problem laying the juice with the Rays. Cardinals are just not playing good baseball. St Louis is 3-8 in their last 11 games. Rays are heating up, going 6-2 in their last 8. Look for Tampa Bay to stay hot and secure a win. Bet the Rays -147!
Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Baltimore over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.
The Astros rallied to take the opener of this three-game series last night. I expect the Orioles to bounce back on Wednesday. Cristian Javier will get the start for Houston. He silenced the O's bats over six innings the last time he faced them last September, helping the Astros to a 6-3 victory. Keep in mind, Javier has been a much different pitcher this year. He checks in sporting a 4.50 FIP and 1.21 WHIP and has given up fewer than three earned runs just once over his last seven starts. His counterpart on Wednesday will be newly-acquired Jack Flaherty. The veteran right-hander has reigned in his command lately, issuing two walks or less in six of his last seven outings. Flaherty's first start with Baltimore was a good one as he gave up just one earned run in six innings in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Behind Flaherty is an O's bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.21 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted 18 saves while blowing only eight at home this season. The Astros bullpen has been terrific as well but I do think they'll only be managing a deficit in the latter stages of Wednesday's game. Take Baltimore.
I'll take my chances with the OVER 10.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Royals and Red Sox. I know this is a big number, but this has slugfest written all over it with Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta on the mound. Lyles is 3-12 with a 6.08 ERA in 21 starts. He's got a 7.08 ERA in 9 career starts vs Boston. There have been at least 11 combined runs in 7 of his last 8 starts against the Red Sox. Pivetta has a 7.56 ERA and 1.561 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also got a 6.98 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in 4 career starts vs the Royals. KC comes in swinging a hot bat. Royals are putting up 5.9 runs/game and hitting .290 as a team over their last 7 games. Give me the OVER 10.5!
This game Wednesday between the Jays and the Guardians is definitely a tale of two cities. The Jays are on the upswing (5-2 L7 in August) and were buyers at the trade deadline while the Guardians are on a slide (1-5 L6 in August) and were sellers at the trade deadline. The Jays are 12th in avg. and 9th in OPS in the last 15 days while the Guardians are 24th and 26th respectively. Probable starting pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in his L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in his L5) look comparable, but Allen’s opposition has been the woeful White Sox (2X), KC (2X) and the Pirates. Except for the Tigers, Gausman’s L5 starts have all been against contenders so they aren’t comparable stats.
The Blue Jays have averaged 5.1R/9 in their last 7 while the Guardians have averaged 2.4R/9 in their last 7. The Blue Jays available bullpen for Wednesday is slightly superior to the Guardians. The Blue Jays have also hit well against LHP this season. All of the above paints a pretty clear advantage for the Blue Jays so they are a solid play Wednesday night.
I like Toronto to bounce-back here after its 1-0 loss yesterday. Previous to that the Jays had won four in a row. Kevin Guasman (8-6, 3.20 ERA) gets the nod here over Logan Allen (5-4, 3.65), and we expect TO to respond in this revenge spot; consider the Jays on Wednesday!
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our Wednesday Free Play. The wheels continue to remain off in Arizona as it is now on a seven-game losing streak following a series opening loss last night. The Diamondbacks have struggled further back as well, going 7-23 over their last 30 games and have fallen into third place in the National League West, 10 games behind Los Angeles and two games out of the Wild Card. The Dodgers took a while to get into first place in the division but have done so on a recent 8-2 run to take a five-game lead over the Giants. Even with the win last night, they are just six games over .500 on the road and down money. Merrill Kelly gets the ball for Arizona and he is having a great year with a 3.37 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 19 starts and he has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 outings. His ERA is 3.14 over that stretch with Arizona going 7-4. Bobby Miller has been an excellent addition to this rotation but has slowed down after a blistering start. He had a 0.78 ERA in his first four starts but has a 6.25 ERA in eight starts since and while he has not blown up of late, he has not gone far, averaging less than five innings his last four outings. Play (962) Arizona Diamondbacks
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