Saturday 8/12/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	5	Tall Paul	J Rosario
PLACE	4-1	3	Apollo Code	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	4-1	8	Quiet Wisdom	L Saez
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Mamas Middie	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Gucci Man	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Strawberry Kwik	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #2 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:42 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 OCEAN MERMAID
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Ocean Mermaid	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	6-1	4	Good Lord Lorrie	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	2	Revelatory	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	1A	Better Luck	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Reverend Moon	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Fast Stride	L Saez
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #3 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Jolly Miss Jill	J A Torres
PLACE	3-1	2	Sa Foradada	L Saez
SHOW	4-1	6	Mursal	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Freudian	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Icy Reply	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	April Antics	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #4 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 ONE GIANT LEAP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	One Giant Leap	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	8-1	7	Ten Cent Town	D Davis
SHOW	3-1	3	Commerce Comet	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Dangerous Ride	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Kupp	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Thunderian	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #5 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Eliminate	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	3	Reynolds Channel	L Saez
SHOW	5-1	5	Deterministic	J Rosario
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Chaperone	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Hurricane Nelson	E J Zayas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Informed Patriot	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $88,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	1A	Foxy Cara	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	7-2	11	Richies Princess	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	9	Mim	D Davis
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Nolita	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Souffle	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Neigh Jude	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX
RACE #7 $150,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Love Reigns	J Rosario
PLACE	6-1	6	Redifined	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-2	9	Stone Silent	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	10	My Sweet Affair	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	15	Cuz Ur Pretty	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Reflexivity	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Haul	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-5	6	Rhyme Schemes	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	7-2	5	Edified	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Market Street	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Lasso	E J Zayas
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Woodcourt	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Annapolis	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-5	6	Casa Creed	L Saez
SHOW	3-1	1	Emmanuel	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	30-1	3	My Sea Cottage	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Ice Chocolat	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	So High	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #10 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	9	Memphis	J L Ortiz
PLACE	8-1	3	Order of Magnitude	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	7-2	5	Mistical Curlin	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Gut Feeling	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Whats Up Doc	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Forrest City	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #11 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 WATERVILLE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Waterville	J Rosario
PLACE	5-1	4	Stella Mars	R Silvera
SHOW	6-1	10	Rheaume	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Latest Edition	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Solib	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Lady Jasmine	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/10 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	6	Tonic and Gin	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	2-1	2	Mia Mitole	C A Torres
SHOW	5-2	3	Shake It Baby	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Missy Bee	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Rose Darling	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Summer Dance	F Peterson
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #2 $33,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 DRE ME LESS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Dre Me Less	M Garcia
PLACE	9-5	2	Hashtag Winner	R Bejarano
SHOW	5-1	3	Priddis	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Princesstapiture	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Music Amore	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	La Tourista	E Morales
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ATHENS MOON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Athens Moon	C A Torres
PLACE	9-5	3	Smile Mon	M Chuan
SHOW	8-1	5	Chiron	J Elliott
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Elegant Trip	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	My Sanctuary	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Great Barrier	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 ASTRONOMICO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Astronomico	C A Torres
PLACE	4-1	6	Coach Jimi D	W A Rodriguez
SHOW	4-1	3	Patch OBrien	G Corrales
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Mor Jazz	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Normandy Hero	A Achard
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Liquor Talk	M Chuan
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:53 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	8	Ode to Balius	D Cannon
PLACE	7-2	3	British Sea	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	7	Move to Gold	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	5-1	15	Gottaneedforspeed	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Crusading	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Dirbas	C Landeros
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/7/15 BOX
RACE #6 $15,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Show Me Grace	F Arrieta
PLACE	2-1	3	Stanley Market	Y Navas
SHOW	7-2	5	Tap N Sway	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Cami Cat	G Saez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	La V.	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Joans Way	W A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	10	Ivory Moon	D Cannon
PLACE	5-2	1	Hideki	R Bejarano
SHOW	8-1	9	Devine Charger	M Michel
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Empire of My Own	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Four Dawn	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Honey Run	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX
RACE #8 $78,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Kings Ovation	M Garcia
PLACE	2-1	5	Roman Centurian	F Arrieta
SHOW	6-1	3	Group Eighteen	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Search Engine	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Icarus	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Hes Got This	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #9 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Clever Joke	F Arrieta
PLACE	5-1	9	C C Cruise Control	C J Lanerie
SHOW	15-1	2	Mischievous Gal	E Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	5	In Color	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Unstable Princess	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Be Here Now	J Graham
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Please Baby	I Castillo
PLACE	7-2	5	Get Khozy	S Camacho
SHOW	5-2	6	Power of Nature	P Lopez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Staff Sergeant	R Mitchell
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Winsor Manor	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Bubby Papermaker	P Henry Jr.
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $27,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 TURN ON THE CHARM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Turn On the Charm	C E Rojas
PLACE	2-1	6	Alexas Dream	J A Batista
SHOW	10-1	2	Save the Flag	N Juarez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Milwaukee Bay	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Irie Empress	S Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Exculpate	L J Luzzi
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	9	Mispelled Mooon	J A Vargas Jr.
PLACE	3-1	4	Threatlevelmidnite	M Olver
SHOW	7-2	3	Flip My Id	P Lopez
WILD CARD	8-1	10	Snow Forecast	A Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Twirling Wind	J Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Little Red Button	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX
RACE #4 $71,875 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	10	Legendary Thunder	P Lopez
PLACE	3-1	3	Electric Eel	J Rendon
SHOW	10-1	6	Jaspers Pride	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	6-1	11	Charlies Express	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Dark Victory	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Bookem Danno	S Marin
* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX
RACE #5 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 LIOTTA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	8	Liotta	J Rendon
PLACE	5-1	3	Ballindine	M Iorio
SHOW	7-2	4	Spartan Boy	P Lopez
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Flintshires Rock	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Hollywood Closeup	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Snip the Roses	J Torres
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #6 $6,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:57 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 STEPHANIE MY LOVE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Stephanie My Love	M Rowland
PLACE	2-1	2	Bet of the Century	E Ruiz
SHOW	5-1	5	Angelic Gal	J A Batista
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Gun of Gold	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Popthechampagne Ro	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Throwback	P L Cotto Jr.
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #7 $60,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Customer List	S Camacho
PLACE	5-1	9	White Lilacs	P Lopez
SHOW	9-2	8	Blue Times	I Castillo
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Uncorked	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Mirandas Rocky	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Princess Sophie	P Lopez
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
RACE #8 $7,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Bailey	J Rendon
PLACE	7-2	5	Box of Chocolates	J Torres
SHOW	4-1	4	Small Reason	R R Maragh
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Big City Bob	J Laprida
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Souper Fly Over	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Dizzy Gillespie	A A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
RACE #9 $60,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:24 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Biz Biz Buzz	P Lopez
PLACE	4-1	5	Mamba On Three	J Rendon
SHOW	9-2	2	Full Disclosure	I Castillo
WILD CARD	10-1	9	Pogi	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Like What I See	C E Rojas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Just Jeremy	F Gonzalez Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX
RACE #10 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Mr. Extension	C Olivero
PLACE	6-1	4	Justinspeightofit	N Juarez
SHOW	5-1	7	Loverboy Lou	J Rendon
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Prince Filip	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Shanghai Warrior	P L Cotto Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Living Water	R Mitchell
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 12, 2023

Aug. 11, 2023


Race 10 at Colonial Downs | Saturday August 12 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern
Arlington Million | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and one-quarter on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward
Eliminating non-contenders:
Before discussing the top contenders, I want to discuss why a number of horses with overall good records and hundreds of thousands of dollars won in their careers have pretty low probability to win this race. Let’s start with Rockemperor (5), one of two trained by Chad Brown (the other is Adhamo), who has banked $1.1 million. In spite of having won the Turf Classic Invitational in the fall of 2022 and the Bowling Green Stakes in July of 2022 he has not been competitive in five races since and interestingly enough, was scratched out of this year’s Bowling Green, which appears to have been an easier spot than the Arlington Million. Adhamo (9) has won just once in six races since importing to the United States in the winter of 2022, and he has been away since a poor effort last October when sixth of seven in the Turf Classic Invitational. Although Brown has a good record with horses returning off long layoffs, there’s not a case to be made this horse can return to grade 1 winning form. Santin (11) won this race last year as one of the betting favorites (2 to 1) but has not been competitive since then in six races, never closer than fourth or nearer than three lengths from the winner. Many of the others have been uncompetitive recently and cases cannot be made why their recent form can be reversed.
Top contenders:
After eliminating a number of horses as contenders, we’re left with just a few, that group led by Atone (4). This past January, following two and one-half months off and a win last November, Atone proved to be a top turf runner when rallying from sixth to win the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Nearly eight weeks later in the Muniz Memorial Classic, and sent to post as the prohibitive favorite, Atone finished last of nine. When returning two months later in the Dinner Party Stakes, Atone led from the start, just as he had in his victory last November, but this time he faded to fifth. However, he has beaten a total of one length and was very game all the way to the finish. For the Arlington Million, Atone gets a jockey change to Kendrick Carmouche, who has ridden the horse just one time previously and that was in his wire-to-wire win last November. With none of the three horses with gate positions inside Atone in the Million previously shown to want to be in front early in a race, Carmouche can easily put Atone on the lead from the start from where he can control the tempo and duplicate his big effort last fall. However, in the case another horse wants the lead more than Atone does, Carmouche can get Atone to relax as he did when fifth in the early stages of the Pegasus, with the same winning result.
Catnip (8) is one of a few fairly lightly raced four year olds in this year’s Million field, who may be able to step up to the task. He has won four of eight career races, all on grass, and has improved as expected during his spring campaign. After winning in April at the first allowance condition, Catnip improved markedly in May to earn a then career-best 102 Equibase Speed figure, then to 106 winning the Monmouth Stakes. Moved up to the Grade 1 level and facing some multiple stakes winners in the United Nations Stakes last month, Catnip was not disgraced when making the lead in the stretch after stalking in second, then being passed by multiple stakes winner Therapist. Cutting back from that mile and three-eighths trip to the mile and one-quarter of the Arlington Million, Catnip has a big shot to make the lead after stalking whichever horse is in front in the stretch and perhaps hang on this time.
Master Piece (6) has won or placed in nearly half of his 22 career start on grass, 10 to be exact, and continues to run competitively every time he steps foot on the track. Returning from nearly four months off for his first start of 2023 in the Pegasus (won by Atone), Master Piece closed strongly but too late, moving from last of 12 to be beaten just three lengths at the finish. Following that came a third place effort with a 110 figure in the Mac Diarmida Stakes and another third place effort in the Pan American Stakes. Given three months off and changing trainers, it appears the much shorter mile and one-sixteenth race Master Piece ran in on July 4 was a prep for this much longer race. Having won the Eddie Read Stakes last summer with a 111 figure which would be very competitive if repeated, it must be noted the new trainer for Master Piece is Dick Dutrow, who recently returned to training after a long suspension. Dutrow proved he hasn’t lost his ability to get horses to run big as he saddled White Abarrio to win the Whitney Stakes last weekend in an upset, and that’s another reason to take Master Piece (CHI) very seriously in this situation.
Set Piece (3) is a horse I will use on exacta tickets in the second position. Although he has won 12 of 28 races, seven of 22 on turf, for the past year or so Set Piece has mostly rallied way too late to win, and he’s never really fared well in grade 1 stakes, except for a second place finish in the 2021 Fourstardave Handicap, where, as usual, he rallied from last to get second while not threatening to win. In his most recent start on July 1, Set Piece rallied from last of 10 to get third. So while he has a big late kick, it usually falls short but that’s exactly the reason he can’t be left off second position on exacta tickets.
Bets:
Consider win bets on one or more of the win contenders at these odds:
Atone (4) at 2 to 1 or more
Catnip (8) at odds of 3 to 1 or more
Master Piece (6) at odds of 4 to 1 or more
Note: If you wager on more than one of the contenders to win, you can structure your bets to win the same amount. This is called “dutching.” For example, if Atone is 3 to 1 and Catnip is 6 to 1 and if you were betting $50 total you would be $32 on Atone for a return of $128 and $18 on Catnip for a return of $126.
Exactas: Atone (4), Master Piece (6), Catnip (8) over Set Piece (3), Atone (4), Master Piece (6) and Catnip (8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Mama’s Middie (A) was nervous and hard to handle pre-race but rallied from last to finish second at 5-1 odds. He gets blinkers on for his second start. (7) Gucci Man will make his debut after shipping east from Hawthorne as a NY-bred for Larry Rivelli. (8) Quiet Wisdom will make his first start for the team of Todd Pletcher and owners Mike Repole and St. Elias Stable. (5) Tall Paul ships to Saratoga from his first start atDel Mar when he set the pace and was third for Bob Baffert.
6^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (2) Nolita (B) had a poor start in his debut, dropped back to eighth, and rallied wide to finish third at odds of 9-2. (10) Souffle moved to the dirt after three turf starts and ran second the entire race. (5) Neigh Jude makes his first start with a bullet work last week to prepare for this race for a trainer that is good with firsters in Kelly Breen. (7) Irish Crystal will make her debut for Horacio DePaz who is an underrated trainer with first-time starters. She has been preparing at Laurel but ships up as a NY-bred.
9^th race [Fourstardave (G1), 1 mi TURF.] – (1) Emmanuel won the Poker (G3) at Belmont Park in June with a late run to get up by a neck earning the highest speed figure of his career. Breaking from the rail, he might show more early speed as he did last year when winning the Pennine Ridge (G2). (4) Annapolis has a great record at Saratoga and at the mile distance. He was a Grade 1 winner of the Turf Mile in October at Keeneland. He won the Opening Verse in his first start of the year which was at Churchill Downs. Regular rider Irad Ortiz stays on board. (6) Casa Creed is the horse to beat in the Fourstardave. He already has a win at Saratoga in the Kelso (G3) four weeks ago. He won this race last year tying the highest speed figure of his career. The Bill Mott runner has more than $2.1 million in earnings. (7) Ice Chocolat finished second in the Jacque Cartier (G2) at Woodbine and stretched out on the turf to finish fourth in the Kelso.
11^th race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (6) Solib (B) was very rank in his last start and then had to check costing him any chance to be competitive. (4) Stella Mars won her last two starts against open company. She was claimed two races back for $35,000 and then won a starter allowance by two lengths. (2) Waterville was second at this level last time at the beginning of the meeting and gets blinkers on. (10) Rheaume experimented with blinkers last time and they come back off now. Last year she was second against open company twice.
Best bets: Mama’s Middie (1^st); Emmanuel (9^th). Best value: Noilta (6^th); Solib (11^th).
SaturdayPick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 9 - 11 and begins with the Fourstardave (G1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Hotlist - August 12

Aug. 11, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Free and Humble adds blinkers after finishing third and should work out a winning trip from the rail. (4) Sherlyn Go Go exits stakes company and looks like the key rival. (6) Luminiferous flattened out in her first try against winners but is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6.
3rd race – (3) Night Blue makes her U.S. debut for D’Amato and may prove best. (1) Irish Rose was second last time and should be a big threat. (2) Den of Iniquity is another Euro with a chance here. (8) La Peer will be a stretch threat with the right pace. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8.
6th race – (3) Dua (C) dropped from even money to 3-5 and was a game debut winner. Seems set for a successful stakes debut. (8) Benedetta may get a good trip from the outside post. (1) Feisty Mitole was only a half-length behind the top pick and cannot be overlooked. (7) Ur in Trouble was second to the top pick and will be a main threat again. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8. Doubles: 1-3-7-8 with 1-4-5-8.
7th race – (5) Carmen Miranda has been away since April but seems ready to dance into the winner’s circle. (4) Stressed has nice early speed and could be tough to catch. (8) Runninwiththeboyz may appreciate the cutback to a sprint. (1) Secrets Told might benefit from saving ground. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8.
9th race – (4) School Dance showed unusual speed in a Grade 1 stakes and fits much better here. (6) Ganadora tries turf and deserves some attention. (2) Turnerloose could be formidable in her first start for D’Amato. (3) Spirit And Glory ships in from the East and cannot be discounted. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-6.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(3)	Dua	C, 7/22	6 DMR	Was a game debut winner