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Tuesday 8/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our Tuesday Free Play. We won with Miami in this spot yesterday and will come back the Marlins again. Miami carried some momentum from that Sunday come-from-behind victory against the Yankees to make it three straight wins after the 5-1 victory last night. The Marlins remain in the third Wild Card spot in the National League, a one game ahead of the Cubs and Reds. Houston has dropped consecutive games for the first time since July 26 and 28 and just the third time since early June. It has been a solid run for the Astros as they have gone 16-9 over their last 25 games to try and keep pace with the Rangers in the American League West, but are now sitting 3.5 games back. Johnny Cueto has made just five starts, four since April, and the overall results have not been good with a 6.00 ERA but along with that comes a 1.04 WHIP. His problem has been the long ball as of the 19 total hits allowed, seven have been home runs. Christian Javier is another heralded pitcher in this rotation that has been inconsistent this season. He has a 4.36 ERA overall including a 5.17 ERA in 13 road starts and while he has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts, only one of those has resulted in a quality outing. Play (966) Miami Marlins
Tuesday's Free MLB Pick is on the Cincinnati Reds as a -111 home favorite against the Cleveland Guardians. Easy play on Cincinnati in this one. Reds are going to send out the red-hot Graham Ashcraft, who has a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. That includes a road start at the Dodgers (6 scoreless innings). He's simply being undervalued right now because of his poor overall marks. Ashcraft has a 4.95 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Cleveland's Logan Allen has a 4.24 ERA in his last 3 starts and is facing a Reds lineup that has fared much better vs left-handed starters this season. Bet the Reds -111!
Cincinnati's starter today Ashcraft has been in top form since about the 2nd part of the season as is evident by garnering a stingy 2.11 ERA in 38 1/3 innings of quality work. During that span his strikeout rate is 18.4% and has recorded a very impressive 7.5% walk rate. Considering the Guardians are without Fraley , India, Fry on offense, Im betting Ashcraft has a fine day. Meanwhile, the Guardians will send Logan Allen to the hill in response The lefty . has allowed just three earned runs over two starts in August and in his current form should pose a problem for a Reds side that has slowed recently against LHP after a fast start against southpaws to begin their campaign. The Reds have also hit under the Mendoza line in their L/7 trips to the diamonds and look very inconsistent offensively of late giving credence to a lower scoring affair taking place early this evening in the battle of Ohio.
CINCINNATI is 13-3 UNDER vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7 rpg scored.
CLEVELAND is 67-48 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored.
Detroit @ Minnesota (7:40 PM EST)
Play On: Minnesota -1.5 +110 (Faedo/Ober) Listed
The Detroit Tigers take on the Twins in Minnesota on Tuesday night. Detroit is 53-65 SU overall this year while Minnesota comes in with a 62-58 SU overall record on the season. Alex Faedo is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA his last 3 starts. Bailey Ober is 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA overall this year and has a 3.03 ERA at home this season. Detroit is 3-16 this year when playing with a day off. Minnesota is in 1st place in the AL Central and are 8 games ahead of Detroit while the Guardians are second place, 4.5 games back. Minnesota will look to have a good series here. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota on the Run Line tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
The Rangers opened this series with a 12-0 win Monday. They moved to 10-2 in August while the Halos dropped to 3-9 for the month.
Angels right-hander Lucas Gioloti has had a tough year. The team record with him as a starter is 8-16 and 1-6 in his last seven starts, with Giolito posting a 6.63 ERA during that stretch.
Texas left-hander Jordan Montgomery is a solid pitcher and he has given up only four runs with 11 Ks over 12 innings in his first two starts since coming over from the Yankees.
Sure, this is a lot of juice to pay, but the Rangers are 19-6 as a home favorite laying -150 or more and 13-3 as a home favorite laying -170 or more.
Bet this free pick on the Rangers with 2% of your bankroll.
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Chi Cubs are 14-6 in their last 20 overall. Chi White Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 road games.
Jack Jones
Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: White Sox/Cubs OVER 8.5
The Chicago Cubs have been hot at the plate since the beginning of July. They have scored at least 3 runs in 33 of their last 37 games overall. The White Sox have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last eight games overall and have been much better at the plate over the past week-plus.
The Cubs should hang a big number on Touki Toussaint, who is 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four road starts. Kyle Hendricks has been roughed up at home this season, going 1-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in seven starts at Wrigley Field.
Hendricks has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts coming in. He is 1-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his last three starts against the White Sox, allowing 15 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 2/3 innings.
The OVER is 14-2 in Hendricks' last 16 starts as a home favorite. The Cubs are 15-3 OVER vs. AL teams that score 4.4 or fewer runs per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
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