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Friday 8/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Friday's Free MLB Pick is on the Chicago Cubs on the -1.5 run line at home against the Royals. Cubs are playing some really good baseball in the 2nd half and I think we are getting a pretty good price on them to win this game by 2 or more runs. Jameson Taillon doesn't have the best number for the season and was rocked at Toronto in his last start, but he had pitched well in each of his 5 previous starts. I like him to bounce back against a pretty bad Royals offense. I also like the Cubs offense in this one, despite the good numbers for Cole Ragans. Chicago has hit lefties hard this year. They are scoring 5.6 runs/game vs left-handed starters in 2023. Bet the Cubs -1.5, +115!
I'll take my chances with the Red Sox at basically a pick'em on the road against the Yankees. New York has hit rock bottom. The Yankees have lost 5 straight to fall under .500 at 60-61. They are now 6.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot and have to jump two teams to get there. Until NY shows us something, especially offensively, I think you have to continue to fade them. Yankees scored just 3 total runs in their last series vs Atlanta (shutout in each of the last two). They will be up against Boston's Brayan Bello, who has absolutely owned them. Bello has a 1.44 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Yankees (two this season). Give me the Red Sox -105!
Sean Murphy
Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on Milwaukee over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday.
The Brewers did not have a good time at all in Los Angeles as they were swept in a three-game series against the Dodgers. In that series their offense went ice cold but I do expect them to bounce back against Andrew Heaney and the Rangers on Friday. Heaney has been wildly inconsistent this season, sprinkling solid outings in among ugly ones. Last time out he faced only nine batters against the Giants, allowing five of them to reach base. Heaney checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the campaign. Note that he faced the Brewers twice last season and while he did strike out 20 batters in just 10 2/3 innings, he also allowed five earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs. The Rangers have won each of his last four starts - their longest such streak of the season. Even at the peak of Heaney's success with the Dodgers last year, they still only managed to win four straight times with him on the hill. In that case, his next start came against the Brewers and the Dodgers dropped a 5-3 decision. Brandon Woodruff will counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp since returning from the I.L. earlier this month, allowing four earned runs on eight hits while striking out 14 and walking only one in 11 1/3 innings of work. In 22 2/3 innings this season, Woodruff has logged a 3.92 FIP and 0.84 WHIP. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup. I do like the Brewers ability to close out games, noting they've converted 23 saves while blowing only 10 on the road this season. The Rangers have converted 15 saves while blowing nine at home. Take Milwaukee.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will go on the road to take on the Minneapolis Twins in an interleague battle. Pittsburgh will send Andre Jackson to the mound. He is 0-0 this season with a 5.47 ERA. It will be his second start of the season. Minnesota will go with Pablo Lopez on the mound. He is 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA in 24 starts. Pittsburgh has lost three of their last four games. In Lopez's last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. The Pirates win just 42% of their road games. The Pirates have struggled to score, especially on the road, and will be going against a Twin's staff that ranks top 10 in the league in team ERA with 3.92. The Twins have won seven of their last 12 games and four of their last five home games. and 58% of their home games overall. Lopez has been almost unhittable and he should continue that against a weak Pirate's offense.
The Orioles are 10-3 SU and 9-4 against the runline as road favorites. Oakland had lost five in a row prior to an 8-0 win in the final of a six-game road trip yesterday.
Oakland rookie right-hander Luis Medina has posted a 2.70 ERA over his last five starts, but he's still only 3-8 with a 5.31 ERA on the season. The Orioles counter with veteran righty Kyle Gibson who is 6-3 with a 3.80 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against the A's.
Bet this free pick on the Orioles -1.5 with 2% of your bankroll.
It is the A's and the O's today in Game One of Oakland's home series. These two teams have produced some big numbers this season. Their last three games have seen 15, 12 , and 20 runs. Gibson is off his worst start of the season, and while I doubt that he will be equally poor, he has been known to give up some runs. Medina has shown well in recent starts but his starts have been of very short duration this season, with just 7+ innings total in his last two starts. The A's have the worst bullpen in the league, allowing a good Orioles team potentially plenty of exposure to sub-par pitching. The O's are a very good road favorite, and off a pair of losses, will be determined to get back on track. Take today's match-up to go over a modest total.
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