Tuesday 8/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#7 Gemini Moon	He starting to get a bit short on excuses, but he might be sitting on a bounce-back effort after a couple flat runs lately. Think his ability to spy the speed and grind at one pace might work well in here.
#4 Freddy's Music	He's a good fit here and has occasionally passed a horse in the lane, which might be enough if he's in the right spot turning for home. Wouldn't want to be here at too short a price.
#2 Warrior's Place	He didn't show a whole lot in the debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but this is an easier spot all around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him a touch closer early if he gets away a bit cleaner today.
Race Summary	Gemini Moon's form is heading the wrong way, but I'm hoping the bottom of that came last out with similar. The price should be playable enough today to see if she's ready for better with a great run of the race waiting for her.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Strike Appeal	I'd want a decent number to land here while in forgettable enough recent form, but I think he has some upside on the move to synthetic today and might be in line for a really good run from the outside. Enough to like.
#4 Extrasexybigdaddee	I wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, but I think the price is probably going to get a bit short while dropping out of stakes company, and I think it might be worth trying to beat him today.
#2 Paynted Warrior	Forward player quit last out after tracking the pace, and he'll have to deal early with another capable contender just outside in #3 Grounded. Think this guy can prompt if he needs to.
Race Summary	Strike Appeal goes third off the layoff while bringing some upside on the surface switch, and I'm hoping the stakes running line from Extrasexybigdaddee will help keep the price playable.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 Worbothor	Went back and forth between this one and #6 Wapiti Way on top, and I think the price will be a lot more attractive here. He's not what he once was, but his recent form might be better than it looks, and he was recently in the frame with a couple capable players he'll find in the gate again today.
#8 South Sea	He can probably rate just enough to settle into a good spot to find first jump, and I think this easier spot gives him a real chance to wake up a bit today.
#4 Great Blake	He's pretty honest and typically finds himself in a pretty good spot into the turn, but I could see the front part of this race proving just tiny bit taxing. Your call.
Race Summary	Worbothor typically comes plugging along late, but I think that might be the right kind of style to give him a chance to land this at a price while in fairly dull form.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#3 CORSIDAT (10-1)	Often in contention at this level in the ball, makes third start this year.
#5 LOVE DRUNK (9-5)	Rallied outside of winners and into photo-finish view in last two starts.
#1 DULCE VICTORIA (9-2)	Ran 1-2-3 versus Indiana breds in her last three starts for higher tags.
Race Summary	CORSIDAT was no factor for twice this much in her only two starts this year. But if she can recapture her form from late last year, she can spring an upset. She showed speed and finished second to Mi Estrella (6-27, $111k), who launched a 4-for-5 winning streak, and met mostly short-priced winners throughout the fall. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-5 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#3 CIELO AZUL (7-2)	Good record locally, fires fresh, can upgrade series of in-the-money finishes.
#6 AZZARO STEEL (9-5)	Exits fast heats, strictly the one to beat on class drop, looms short price.
#7 FLOWERPECKER (5-2)	Good speed, good post to use it from for new pilot.
Race Summary	CIELO AZUL finished behind Asmussen-trained favorite Oro Azteca in his last two starts but stands a good chance in this field to win for the first time in 17 months and surpass $200,000 in earnings. He finished second three of the last four times he had more than a month off. Play a 3-6 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#7 LIL EVIE (5-1)	Looks to recapture 3-year-old form for new barn and enhance 4-8 record at 6F.
#8 VARTON (8-5)	Carried speed to back-to-back romps in shorter sprint races, draws good post.
#5 JOAN’S WAY (6-1)	Rallied to win 3 of her last 4 main-track sprints, the last two in photo finishes.
Race Summary	LIL EVIE exits stakes and allowance company for her new barn. She had 4-wide aim on the leaders when third behind 91-1 deep closer Botox Katie two back. She has three allowance wins at 6F over the track. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 4:03P
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ACACIO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ACACIO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	ACACIO	8/5	4/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	ACACIO	6	8/5	Stalker	67	51	60.7	55.0	51.0
3	MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN	3	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	46.5	48.3	40.3
4	WHERE'S CHARLIE	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	33.2	27.5	20.5
5	SAINT HELIER	5	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	7.6	26.5	20.0
1	INNOCENT MAN	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	35.1	35.1	29.6
7	SOPHIE'S SHADOW	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	6.6	6.6	0.0

Unknown Running Style: PURPLE AURA (6/1) [Jockey: Ulloa Andres Patricio - Trainer: Granitz Anthony J], FULL DRESS BLUES (10/1) [Jockey: Franklin Malcolm - Trainer: Waltz Brian].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort EriePURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 1	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HEAR ME KNOCKING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HEAR ME KNOCKING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. MISS MOLLY LALOU: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BIG BANG BLUE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	HEAR ME KNOCKING	8/1	3/1
1	MISS MOLLY LALOU	9/5	5/1
5	BIG BANG BLUE	2/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	HEAR ME KNOCKING	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	64	56	63.2	47.0	43.5
1	MISS MOLLY LALOU	1	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	66	54	48.8	51.0	48.0
5	BIG BANG BLUE	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	56	29.0	43.6	36.6
3	LUNATICA	3	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	63	48	27.4	40.0	34.5
4	ONLY BELIEVE	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	50	47.4	46.4	37.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 74

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 22, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 KNIGHT OFTHE CROWN 5/2
# 2 DROSEL DIEM 6/1
# 6 MASS APPEAL 5/1

KNIGHT OFTHE CROWN looks respectable to best this field. Looks strong to be up on the front end at the first call. Earned a competitive Equibase Speed Figure last time out. He has recorded competitive numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. DROSEL DIEM - Sabine has a formidable 20 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has competitive early speed and will most likely fare solidly versus this field. MASS APPEAL - Has some positive angles which make this entrant a bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 22. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 KNOW WHAT I MINA 9/5
# 3 WHAT UP NOW J T 5/2
# 8 ENJAY'S BRASS 10/1

KNOW WHAT I MINA is my choice. Nault has a solid 26 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has been running admirably lately and will almost certainly be up on the front end early on. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 64 - of her last affair. WHAT UP NOW J T - Boasts sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. This mare looks very good here since Anderson has a solid win percentage with horses going this distance. ENJAY'S BRASS - Ought to be given a shot as she drops to compete against this less demanding field of horses. The price should be just right on this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 WONDER CITY (ML=4/1)
#1 NOT A TRACE (ML=12/1)


WONDER CITY - Last race at Parx Racing on July 10th was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes in this event. She should do well this time around. That 67 fig this mare garnered in her last contest tells me she's a big time player today. NOT A TRACE - Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. This mare looks good today. Hasn't done much lately, but did win a $7,500 Claiming race on March 13th. Entered a $7,500 Claiming race at Parx Racing last time around the track and raced on a track listed as good finishing fourth. I'd expect a better race in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MS MERRABEL (ML=7/2), #4 TOMARIE (ML=9/2), #3 LEAN ON E (ML=5/1),

MS MERRABEL - The morning-line choice is shaky here with the lack of works. Recorded a most unsatisfactory speed rating in the last race in a $10,000 Claiming race on Jul 19th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. TOMARIE - Awfully tough to play this less than sharp equine when she hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. Should be difficult for this horse to beat this field off of that last fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the likely underlays list. LEAN ON E - This runner ran a run-of-the-mill fig last out. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 WONDER CITY is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:56pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 40

Rating:

#2 TWICK OR TWEAT (ML=5/2)
#1 DESTINY'S DREAM (ML=3/1)
#6 TINA'S TAPIZAR (ML=7/2)


TWICK OR TWEAT - This filly should get a 'dream' trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this event. The Aug 9th race at Hawthorne was at a class level of (49). Dropping to a lower class level a significant amount, so she should be in a good spot. DESTINY'S DREAM - It looks like Bendezu had to be more familiar with this filly on August 8th when riding her for the first time. Back on again today. A repeat of that most recent performance on August 8th where she registered a speed fig of 30 looks good enough to prove victorious in this event. TINA'S TAPIZAR - When Orm and Plasters join forces on equines the ROI has been great at +34.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRIANA HARPER (ML=5/1), #5 ONACOUNTA (ML=6/1), #4 W W VALID (ML=6/1),

BRIANA HARPER - Notched a substandard rating last race out in a $4,000 Maiden Claiming race on August 8th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. ONACOUNTA - Doesn't appear to be in a convenient circumstance this time out. W W VALID - Just can't wager on this horse. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on July 8th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 TWICK OR TWEAT on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Running Aces

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$8600 - NON-WINNERS OF $4,501

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 SB BODACIOUS 4/1
# 9 SHOTGUNINTHEHOTSUN 10/1
# 3 WAY TO CLOSE 3/1

Really keen on the likelihood of SB BODACIOUS taking down the winner's share today. Worth a close look here on the basis of the ratings in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. Has a strong shot here, if he can repeat his back class. SHOTGUNINTHEHOTSUN - Achieved a 77 speed rating in last race. A duplicate race here should get the win in here. The consortium has Jenson on its list of drivers who are tough as nails lately. Last 30 days win clip is excellent. WAY TO CLOSE - Recent numbers for the driver - 19 percent win - make this gelding a stand out in the group of animals. This solid standardbred has been making trips to the winner's circle on a routine basis, look for him to make another trip soon.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Hoosier Park

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/22 HOOSIER PARK
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 7- - TROT 08/22 HOOSIER PARK
9 Joyful Celebration 2/1 496.50 100 76.7 74.2 1:58.2 Wilfong, Kyle 18
7 Swan Star 5/2 443.44 80 55.0 64.3 1:59.2 Wrenn, Peter 17
5 Ponda Aesthetic 20/1 434.00 80 41.7 70.9 2:00.0 Hollenback, Mike 12
8 Crescent Star 12/1 433.96 80 81.7 72.8 1:59.5 Bates, Brandon 17
3 Lady By A Nose 20/1 422.04 80 36.7 59.0 1:59.5 Ferguson, Brad 11

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Scioto Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 14
5	5	TABOOMA	3/2	Smith, Jeremy - 12	544.23
4	4	TAKE A STAND	12/1	Sugg, Kurt - 8	506.35
7	7	STARTHIMUP	12/1	Mccown, Cameron - 6	503.90
8	8	JOELSYY HANOVER	5/1	Smith, Trevor - 8	495.36
9	9	MODERN ROCK AS	6/1	Smith, Tyler - 11	478.86
1	1	MAKE TICK SICK	4/1	Page, Chris - 15	477.08
6	6	RISKAPIPPA	8/1	Widger, Sam - 12	463.45
2	2	OFFICIAL DELIGHT	10/1	Miller, Brett - 13	445.95
10	10	PQ THREE	12/1	Sutton, Josh - 11	445.47
3	3	GARRETT'S GUIDE	8/1	Barker, Shawn II - 7	432.35

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Harrington Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/22 HARRINGTON
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 6- - TROT 08/22 HARRINGTON
7 Swan In Motion 4/1 592.53 100 30.0 96.0 1:54.5 Callahan, Corey 21
5 Manatlas 3/1 539.72 80 65.0 92.0 1:57.0 Porter, Trae 21
2 Quiksilvr Bluechip 5/1 534.13 70 >21 28.3 92.0 1:56.4 Kirby, Victor 18
1 Senna 7/2 518.68 60 56.7 88.0 1:57.2 Davis, Allan 24
8 Secret Jet 15/1 499.52 70 103.3 89.0 1:56.7 Davis, Tyler 7

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 12:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 54 - Purse:$4000 - 6 YO/UNDER N/W 1 PM LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 BULLVILLES PRINCE 5/2
# 1 KJ SHERRI 3/1
# 5 RYOKO 8/1

Look no further than BULLVILLES PRINCE as the bet this time. This standardbred looks dangerous. Take a good look at the 62 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. He has great class rankings, averaging 63. Could be considered for a bet in this contest. Post 2 has been winning at a better than expected percent, suggesting competitive probability of success in this race. KJ SHERRI - Had one of the strongest TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the race in her last contest. A good idea to use in your wagers. This trainer, and the driver Taggart, go together like spaghetti and meatballs. Their results together are terrific. RYOKO - Merton has been on fire the last 30 days, winning at a great 24 percent. This entrant looks dangerous considering the high class stats. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
6	6	GRENVILLE HEAVEN	8/1	Mcclure, Bob - 14	473.64
3	3	ROYAL DUHARAS	3/1	Gueriel, Loic - 12	440.77
4	4	WAYS N MEANS	5/2	Mcnair, Douglas R - 18	428.85
1	1	R NO MERCY	4/1	Henry, Trevor S - 11	398.48
2	2	STORMONT HAPPY DAY	6/1	Filion, Sylvain R - 13	377.06
5	5	LOOKPROUD	5/1	Roy, Louis-Philippe - 17	367.55
7	7	TYMAL LOVERBOY	10/1	Gilchrist, Jason L - 8	353.86