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Thursday 8/31/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our Thursday Free Play. This line has been on the move all week as at DraftKings, Utah was -5 a week ago, got up to as high as -7 on Sunday and has slowly been coming down this week. This is due to the questionable status of Utah quarterback Cam Rising who is rehabbing from a torn ACL and his status is still in limbo. If he does go, there is massive value with this number. If he cannot, it will be Bryson Barnes under center who saw limited action last season but has been prepping with the first team all through camp. Overall, six other starters are back on offense and the Utes possess the No. 5 ranked offensive line in the country. Defensively, they are a beast. Utah has one of the best home field advantages in college football as it is 27-2 in its last 29 home games. One loss came in 2017 against No. 10 Washington and the other came in 2020 against USC during COVID without a fan in the place so that can be tossed out making it 26 straight non-COVID wins at home. Florida will have its hands full here no matter who goes at quarterback for Utah as the Gators have a lot of voids to fill. Anthony Richardson is gone at quarterback and Graham Mertz takes over after coming over from Wisconsin. He is dependable but does not bring the same ability to move the ball as the Badgers ranked No. 62 in Success Rate and No. 82 in Explosiveness last season. Six starters are back on the offense as Florida lost three of its top four receivers and the offensive line is ranked No. 42. The Gators will rely heavily on the run, not a recipe for success against the No. 1 ranked defensive line in the Pac 12. Defensively, Florida has just five returning starters and lost its top five tacklers that accounted for 373 stops. Play (148) Utah Utes
We have a revenge game here as Utah hosts Florida just a year after losing at Florida by a score of 29-26. It looks like Cam Rising is going to ride the pine while recovering from a knee injury, making way for backup Bryson Barnes. This has the line being cut in half from -9 to -4.5. I think this is an overreaction, and I think Florida is coming in overhyped. There is always SEC bias, and Utah (despite back to back PAC12 championships) always seems to be underrated. Kyle Wittingham is a damn good coach, and Utah is a tough place to play. I ask myself is Graham Mertz really any better than Bryson Barnes? The Utes have won 14 straight home games and haven't lost a non-conference home game in decades. It might be a close game, but I expect Utah to get it done.
Florida returns just six starters on offense from last season and will be without three of its top four receivers from a year ago and will bring back only five defensive starters after losing their top five tacklers from the last campaign. The Gators also sport a new QB and coach, and project to be in rebuilding mode. Meanwhile, on the flipside, its now suspected that Utah star QB Cam Rising is still not 100% after last seasons injury and may not play tonight, but if he does not play, his backup Bryson Barnes is more than capable of running the offense all be it though in a diff manner than the electric Rising. Utah is also expected to have their top receiver from last season tight end Brant Kuithe in the lineup as he is expected to play after recouping from a injury last season that sidelined him. The key however will come via The Utes defense which returns nine starters. This is experienced group will be the key holder to a win and cover here tonight.
Utah is 15-0 SU in home openers against non-conference opposition with an average point per game diff of +24 clicking in on the board.
The San Francisco Giants have a lot to play for right now trying to earn a wild card spot in the National League. The San Diego Padres are 62-72 on the season and the most disappointing team in baseball being out of the race. They are playing like it too in going 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. Pedro Avila isn't the starter to stop the bleeding for the Padres. He is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in two starts this season. The Giants should tee off on him and give Sean Manaea plenty of run support. Give me the Giants.
8-Unit best bet on the Sparks minus the 5.5 points
I recommend betting this game with 6-Units pre-flop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the in-game line goes to pick-em during the first half of action.
Bet on teams that are coming off a loss of six or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 90 or more points in their previous game has earned an outstanding 46-23-1 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. The system has been largely consistent without a losing season among the past 10 and has produced a 31-16-1 ATS mark for 66% winners over the past three seasons.
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