Monday 9/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Dave Price

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on Texas Rangers -107

The Key: The Houston Astros were just swept at home by the New York Yankees who are out of the playoff race. They just don't seem to have that same fire they had last year when they won the World Series. I like the upstart Texas Rangers are basically even money at home today. Andrew Heaney is 9-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 26 starts this year. Heaney is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 3 starts against Houston in 2023 while yielding only 3 earned runs and 16 base runners in 15 innings. JP France is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts while yielding 14 earned runs and 5 HR in 14 innings. Take Texas.

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Sean Murphy

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Monday.

The A's offense exploded for 10 runs against a sagging Angels pitching staff on Sunday. I expect nothing of the sort as they open a series with the Blue Jays on Monday afternoon in Oakland. Jose Berrios gets the start off consecutive shaky outings for Toronto. I do expect him to bounce back here, noting that he owns a sparkling 1.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven afternoon starts this season. He should be happy to be facing the A's as he checks in sporting a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Ken Waldichuk will counter for Oakland. He's been a more reliable starter for the A's since returning to the rotation in early August, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last six starts. He's never faced the Blue Jays before and catches them in a potential letdown spot here following a wild, high-scoring series against the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Take the under.

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Blue Jays vs A's over 8.5 -115

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Red Sox+124

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Mike Lundin

MLB Free Pick September 4, 2023

The Rays are 18-12 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 8-4 when playing on Monday. The Red Sox are an impressive 13-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175, but only 4-11 when playing on Monday and the Rays have won seven of eight meetings this season.

Boston right-hander Brayan Bello has a record of 0-2 with an ERA of 7.71 in three starts versus the Rays in his career.

Bet this free pick on the Rays with 2% of your bankroll.

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Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Reds+147

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Red Sox+135

*All MLB picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cleveland Guardians +124

The Cleveland Guardians are five games behind the Minnesota Twins for first place in the AL Central. They really need to sweep this series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight. Lucas Giolito is 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Giolito has given up 2 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts against Minnesota while giving up a total of 10 earned runs in 47 innings for a 1.91 ERA. Pablo Lopez has given up 8 earned runs, 4 HR and 22 base runners in 11 innings in his last two starts coming in. Lopez has given up 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 11 2/3 innings in his two starts against Cleveland in 2023. Give me the Guardians.

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Dan Kaiser

Free Plays: Twins/Guardians Under 8 +107

The Minnesota Twins take on the Cleveland Guardians in an AL Central battle. The twins will send Pablo Lopez to the mound while the Guardians counter with Lucas Giolito. The Twins hold a 5.0-game lead over the Guardians for the division. The Tins have won six of their last 10 games. Lopez is 9-7 this season with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Twins are ranked just 15th in runs scored. This is the final three games between the two teams and if the Guardians want to make a move in the division, this is it. The Guardians are 6-4 SU against the Twins this season. They have won six of their last 10. Giolito is 7-11 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The Guardians are 27th in runs scored. Giolito has great numbers against the Twins in his career. Cleveland’s bullpen ranks fourth overall in ERA and eighth in WHIP. Lopez has a 2.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 36.0 innings in August.

Play on the UNDER.

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Brewers-190

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Padres-110

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Philadelphia Phillies +104

The Philadelphia Phillies should not be underdogs to the San Diego Padres tonight. The Phillies are trying to lock up a wild card spot, while the Padres are 5.5 games out with four teams ahead of them for the final spot and basically dead in the water. I also like Taijuan Walker over Rich Hill tonight.

Walker is 14-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 26 starts this season. He has owned the Padres, going 4-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in eight career starts against them. Hill is 7-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 26 starts this season. The Phillies are hitting .263 and scoring 5.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters in 2023.

San Diego is 0-8 following three or more consecutive wins this season. Amazingly, they haven't had a four-game winning streak all season. Bet the Phillies Monday.

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Will Rogers

Free Play: Phillies+108

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games so will be super focused heading into San Diego today. It will be a meeting of two veterans on the mound. Taijuan Walker has been very steady this year, giving up around three runs over a five+ start on average. At 14-5, he has had excellent run support from a Phillies team that is "tops in bops", at .288/.960 OPS in the last two weeks. Padres' lefty Rich Hill appears to really be showing his age at this point in the season. His starts have been very short while giving up nearly a run an inning in August. Not a good look against a very hot Phillies offense. The Phillies swept the Padres at home earlier this season and are tough on left handed pitching. Philadelphia desperately needs a win to stay in play off contention. The Padres have won three straight, but are 0-8 after three consecutive wins. I think superior offense and Hill's apparent fatigue will rule the day today. Take the Phillies to steal this one on the road.

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Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Under 55.5 Clemson/Duke .

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Both these teams are solid defensively, and we should see plenty of running plays from both these coaches. Clemson brings in Garrett Riley who was the OC at TCU last season. As much success as he had with the Horned Frogs, I do remember that in their first game they ran for 275 and four touchdowns in a 38-13 win at Colorado. It might take time to get everyone on the same page, and we could expect a conservative style early on. I think the best value here might be a play on the first half total to go under.

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Orioles-171