Sunday 9/10/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

It's not often that we'll be laying this many (or any) points with the Commanders this season but we'll make an exception on Sunday as they host what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Cardinals. Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon was hesitant to name a starting quarterback throughout the week. You would be too if your options were journeyman Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune. The Cards are obviously in full tank mode as they do what they can to give themselves the best shot at drafting generational QB Caleb Williams next Spring. For now, the Cards will field a rag-tag group that figures to struggle on both sides of the football. I'm confident we'll see Commanders QB Sam Howell feast on a bottom-of-the-barrel Arizona secondary, even if he doesn't have the services of Terry McLaurin. From there the underrated backfield duo of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson is more than capable of salting the game away against a rather unimposing Cards defensive front. On the flip side, the Commanders defensive strength is stopping the run and rushing the passer. They figure to feast in both regards given the state of the Cards offensive line - a makeshift group that will likely be ever-changing this season. Noting that Washington's schedule gets tougher from here with a trip to Denver next week followed by a home game against the Bills (before a rematch with the Cards in Arizona), look for the Commanders to take advantage of this Week 1 layup opportunity. Take Washington.

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Sunday Free Play. The 49ers made a run to the NFC Championship last season and are expected to make another run in the weak NFC. A lot of that will come down to quarterback Brock Purdy who took the league by storm and is ready to go after offseason elbow surgery after getting injured in the NFC Championship. But how healthy is he and can he sustain that success now that there is plenty of film on him? On the other side, the 49ers defense was one of the best across the board last season and while Nick Bosa finally signed and will be available, he will be on a snap count after missing all of training camp. The roster is one of the best in the NFL so the fact San Francisco is favored is no real surprise but this is not an easy opening game spot. The Steelers finished strong last season with six wins in their last seven games to just miss the playoffs but still have never had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. Were they fortunate? Yes. The Steelers were helped out by good injury luck as they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season and with this being Game One, they start right where that left off. Quarterback Kenny Pickett was not good last season but he did not prepare for the starting job and had the lowest rating in the league other than Zach Wilson but he will be improved, especially with offseason and camp work with the starters. T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL and it shows. He missed seven games and Pittsburgh allowed 389.9 ypg and 25.3 ppg but in the 10 games he played, it allowed 288.8 ypg and 16.9 ppg and there is plenty around him. The Steelers are 10-2-2 ATS under Tomlin as non-divisional home underdogs and are in good shape to pull off the minor upset. Play (466) Pittsburgh Steelers

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on CLE+3 -115.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Browns are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

- The Browns are 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus Cincinnati.

- The Browns have the #2 ranked offensive line in the NFL.

Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Jaguars/Colts OVER 46.5

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to challenge for having the top offense in the NFL this season. Trevor Lawrence is a legit MVP candidate with all the weapons at his disposal, and the huge leap he made in Year 2 last year. Lawrence completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions last year. He has Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne back, plus adds what will likely be his new favorite target in Calvin Ridley. The Colts have the element of surprise coming into this one with rookie first-round pick QB Anthony Richardson. The Jaguars aren't going to know what to expect, and the Colts should have a lot of success with Richardson running wild and making plays with his arm. There's not a lot to like about either of these defenses. This screams Week 1 shootout. Take the OVER.

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Ravens -9 1.1% free play

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 9-10-23

Tennessee @ New Orleans (1:00 PM EST)
Play On: Tennessee +3 -115

The Tennessee Titans travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Sunday afternoon. This is the season opener for both teams. Tennessee is 62-38 ATS last 100 non-conference games. New Orleans is 1-10 ATS last 11 games as non-conference home favorites of 3 or more points. While I think this Saints team will be improved this year, I still feel like Tennessee has the better team here. Tennessee is off a down year last season as well going 7-10 SU and I think they will rebound nicely and compete for the AFC South division championship. We'll recommend a small play on Tennessee today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

Jeff Alexander

1* NFL - Jaguars/Colts FREE Pick on Jaguars -4.5

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

UNDER 41.5 49ers/Steelers

The San Francisco 49ers kick off their 2023 campaign with a Week 1 visit to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The game, televised on FOX, is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. In the betting odds, the 49ers are listed as -2 point favorites, with a relatively low total of 41.5 points, suggesting a defensive battle.

The 49ers are aiming to put behind them the injury setbacks from last year's NFC Championship game. In 2022, they ranked 1st in points allowed and 3rd in yards per play allowed. The Steelers, led by T.J. Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, will be looking to slow down the 49ers' offense as well, and when he plays the Steelers are a different kind of beast.

Neither QB impresses me in this matchup. Pickett was not great at all in 2022, with just 2,404 yards in 13 games. While Purdy in my opinion overachieved, and he's had a challenging preseason. (1374yds 13 TD's and 4 INT's looks nice on paper I guess) but I'm just not buying what the 49ers are selling.

The Steelers, when playing as home underdogs, tend to perform exceptionally well. Expect a hard-fought defensive battle. With some uncertainties on both sides, particularly the Pittsburgh offense, this game is likely to be low-scoring. Our NFL betting pick leans towards the Under, with a prediction that the Steelers could win outright and the game will stay under 38.

Some trends to note, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games against an opponent in the AFC North. On the other side the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games at home, and in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.

Both teams are known for their strong defensive units, and we're on the UNDER.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Sunday 5* FREE NFL O/U Play

[ConleyPicks]

Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Mystics vs Liberty over 162.5

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Panthers/Falcons Over 39.5

[ConleyPicks]

Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Panthers/Falcons over 39.5

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Mariners/Rays over 7 -120

[ConleyPicks]

Sal Michaels

Free Play on Tigers-121

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Cardinals+102 vs Reds

*All MLB picks are generated using advanced statistics and scoring models*

[ConleyPicks]

Will Rogers

Free Play: Padres/Astros Over 10 -105

The Astros and Padres have seen a lot of each other recently with home and home series. Padres' starter Waldron has had three recent starts, none of them longer than five innings, with an ERA of 5.50. Waldron is a rare bird these days, throwing a knuckle ball. With knuckle-ballers it is either feast or famine. The Astros have enough veterans who have probably faced a knuckle-baller before, not to mention that they are the hottest hitting team in the league over the past two weeks.
Houston's starter France, after a stellar year, has looked suddenly vulnerable with two poor outings in his last three starts. This could be more than a brief regression as France's OP BA climbed to .291 in August, and he allowed five runs in five innings in his only start in September. The Padres are hitting better than they have in most of the season; ninth in the league at .268/.764 in the last two weeks.
Eight of ten Astros game and three of the last four Padres/ Astros meetings have all gone over. Look for the Houston and San Diego to run up the score today. Take the over.