Saturday 9/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Eastern Michigan-7

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

7* NCAAF - Northwestern/Duke Free Pick

PLAY ON DUKE BLUE DEVILS -17

I'm going to lay the 17-points with Duke at home against Northwestern. I just don't see the Wildcats being able to do enough offensively to keep this game competitive. I'm firmly on the Mike Elko bandwagon in Durham. Elko took a team that went just 3-9 in 2021 and guided them to a 9-4 record in his first year on the job. Duke's defense went from giving up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg to allowing a mere 22.1 ppg and 378 ypg. No surprise given Elko's track record as a defensive coordinator. Blue Devils also went from scoring 22.8 ppg to scoring 32.8 ppg. They had 18 returning starters, including one of the best kept secrets at quarterback in Riley Leonard. They showed what they are capable of in a 28-7 win over Clemson in Week 1. They then rolled Lafayette 42-7, allowing just 213 total yards to the Ragin' Cajuns. Northwestern is off a big win over a bad UTEP team, but had scored just 7 points and totaled 201 yards in their 17-point loss to Rutgers in the opener. I think the Wildcats will struggle to get to double-digits and I like Duke's offense to put up at least 30 points in this one. Give me the Blue Devils -17!

[ConleyPicks]

Ray Monohan

Free Play: Michigan State +17

The Huskies come into this one 2-0 and (1-0-1 ATS) while the Spartans are also 2-0 and (2-0 ATS). The will be UW first road game of the season. Spartans (2-0) beat Central Michigan 31-7, Richmond 45-14 at home. Huskies won 56-19 vs. Boise State, 43-10 vs. Tulsa.

Michigan State enters this week's game with a vengeance on their minds, seeking payback after their recent encounter with Washington resulted in a 39-28 for UW. It's been a tough week for MSU but I think they'll get right in this game on Saturday to at least give the UW Huskies are closer than expected matchup.

The Dantonio factor may also play a significant role in this scenario. Under his leadership, his teams achieved top-10 rankings in national total defense on six occasions and secured the #1 spot in rushing defense in both 2014 and 2018. Michigan's defense will do what is needed in front of the home crowd. They can get after the QB, 1st in QB hurries, and they'll have to get after Penix.

Some trends to note, the Huskies are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games. Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI), plus they're 4-2 SU in their last 6 games, and are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played in September, lastly they're also 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played in week 3.

We're on the Spartans ATS on Saturday.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on South Alabama plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Oklahoma State enters this game sporting a perfect 2-0 record after traveling to Tempe and defeating Arizona State by margin last Saturday. Meanwhile, South Alabama opened its campaign with a stinker at Tulane but bounces back nicely with a 37-15 rout of a quality FCS squad in Southeastern Louisiana last week. While the Jaguars have a key injury concern with WR Devin Voisin expected to miss Saturday's contest, I don't anticipate them airing it out too often in this game anyway. South Alabama QB Carter Bradley has been turnover prone throughout his college career and that has remained the case so far this season as he's tossed three picks to go along with two touchdowns through two games. Remember, this is a team that nearly staged a massive road upset against UCLA last season and it did so thanks to an offensive gameplan that should also serve it well in this particular matchup. That involved leaning heavily on their ground attack and short passing game. Bradley completed 26 passes for 237 yards in that 32-31 loss against the Bruins. RB La'Damian Webb appears to be in midseason form and the Jaguars have a good one in Kentrel Bullock as well. The potential absence of Voisin hurts but USA still has one of the more underrated wide outs in the country in Caullin Lacy while Jamaal Pritchett has proven to be a reliable contributor this season as well. The Cowboys are off to a perfect start but have a three-quarterback rotation and are missing a number of key offensive contributors from last year. I think the jury is still out on their defense. They've drawn a favorable early season schedule, hosting FCS squad Central Arkansas and then travelling to face a rebuilding Sun Devils team. I actually think that the two offenses in this matchup are going to employ similar gameplans in Saturday's contest. Oklahoma State has a lot of talent at the wide receiver position but it doesn't have the quarterbacks to get the most out of those players. The Cowboys don't have a true gamebreaker in the backfield, or one hasn't emerged yet at least. I simply believe these two teams are more comparable to one another than most realize and that we're in for a nip-and-tuck affair on Saturday in Stillwater. Take South Alabama.

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our Saturday Free Play. Miami Ohio is 1-1 to open the season as it was overmatched in its first game against the Hurricanes but bounced back last week with a dominating performance against an improved UMass team in a 41-28 victory. One clear recovery was the rushing game on both sides of the ball as the RedHawks ran for 144 yards on 35 carries (4.1 ypc) while allowing the Minutemen to run for just 62 yards on 30 carries (2.1 ypc) after getting overwhelmed in the trenches in the opener. Miami is a contender in the MAC East as this is a veteran team with 16 starters back including quarterback Brett Gabbert who missed most of last season with an injury and showed what he is capable of last week as the threw for 302 yards on just 12 completions and had a 13.7 ypa average. Cincinnati is off to a 2-0 start as it rolled past Eastern Kentucky in the season opener and snuck past Pittsburgh last week in a physical game 27-21, nearly blowing a 27-7 lead. The Bearcats are a far cry from the team that went to the CFP two seasons ago as they dropped off some last year and are not expected to be overly good this season as they only have nine total starters returning. Quarterback Emory Jones is a transfer from Arizona St. and while he shined against the FCS Colonels, he struggled last week against the Panthers with just a 4.8 ypa average. As for the quarterback matchup, he is at a big disadvantage here. While this is a rivalry game, Cincinnati could be guilty looking ahead to next week and a home game against Oklahoma in its first ever Big 12 game. Play (177) Miami Ohio RedHawks

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Louisiana Tech -4.5

The Key: North Texas clearly has the worst defense in the country. They gave up 58 points and 669 total yards to Cal and 46 points and 514 total yards to Florida International. Their loss to FIU gives these teams a common opponent. Louisiana Tech beat FIU 22-17 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs outgained FIU 450 to 180 for the game so by 270 yards. They held FIU to 180 yards while North Texas allowed 514 yards to FIU. Louisiana Tech is 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12 matchups with North Texas. Take Louisiana Tech.

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Mets+1.5 -145

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play Under 48 BYU/Arkansas * The Arkansas Razorbacks have a good quarterback in K.J. Jefferson, but he doesn’t have the skill position talent around him that he had in the past. Rocket Sanders is out this game with an injury. The Razorbacks lost their top four WR’s from last year too. Arkansas has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are 107th out of 133 teams in the country in terms of tempo. BYU is averaging just 5.34 yards per play (94th in the country) through two games. Those two games were against Sam Houston State and Southern Utah. The Cougars are 115th in the nation in YPC. BYU is 109th in tempo so they too are very slow paced.

I see a grinder of a game here with this one staying under the total.

I’ll take the under.

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

CFB Free Pick September 16, 2023

Kentucky is undefeated through its first two games (1-1 ATS) and I expect a strong effort here after winning by only 11 points as a 34-point favorite against Eastern Kentucky last week.

Over the last three seasons, Akron is only 2-5 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 points or more and while they defeated Morgan State 24-21 last week, note that Jeff Undercuffler Jr., who is likely to start under center here, was picked off three times.

Bet this free pick on Kentucky-25 with 2% of your bankroll.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on West Virginia-2.5

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: New Mexico State Aggies+3 .

Game 137.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

In what has become the “Battle of I-25”, in my opinion I feel the wrong team is favored here. My numbers have the Aggies coming in here as three-point fav. They took last year’s meeting at home in mid-October, 21-9. That ATS cover also gave them seven ATS covers over the last eight meetings in this rivalry. That just might be reason enough to side with them here. But wait folks, because there’s more (lol). While both teams are supposed to be bottom feeders in their perspective conferences, you cannot ignore the fact that the Aggies have tallied more victories against better teams than did the Lobos. Just since the middle of last season, New Mexico State had straight up victories, over the likes of Hawaii, New Mexico, UMass, and yes, even Liberty. By the way, they also won a Bowl game on December 26 over Bowling Green. Meanwhile, prior to last week’s win over Tennessee Tech, New Mexico was riding a 10-game straight up losing streak, in which they only covered one time. QB, Diego Pavia has put up some solid numbers, much better than Dylan Hopkins. Plus, the Lobos also have a couple of able ball-carriers in Monte Watkins and Star Thomas. They have the luxury of switching off running backs and keeping their legs fresh. The Lobos have one RB, in Jacory Croskey-Merritt. This makes it a bit easier for the Aggies to key on him. As I mentioned earlier, I think the wrong team is favored here. So, let’s take the points with New Mexico State. Thank you.

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Cubs-111

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Colorado / Col State O60.5 1.1% Free Play

Colorado has Oregon up next week, and while I don’t think this team looks ahead with Deion at the helm I do see maybe their defense slacking a bit, while the offense keeps the foot on the pedal. Colorado STate has had an extra week to prepare, which certainly won’t help their defense that gave up 50 points to Washington State. I think Colorado will score plenty of points in this one as they continue to try to prove a point.