Sunday 9/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Championship Day Pick 4 Analysis

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September 17, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
This is Kentucky Championship day at The Red Mile. There will be $3.4 million in purses and eight $400,000 Finals, those races are carded 2-9. The $1.00 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:35 Pm EST)

1-Tua Many Captains (7-1)-This is a suck-around candidate with the chalk starting outside. Andy Miller should be sitting close to the top turning for home and could offer a nice price.
2-Dancin Champion (7/2)-Has been right there with #6 in the last 3 races and connected out of the pocket to win. That was a first time David Miller angle that played out, he is back between the pipes and at 7/2 is well worth a swing.
6-Better Is Nice (1-1)-The 4-race win streak was snapped last time. Really did nothing wrong but the big pop was missing down the lane. Came home in 54.2 but that wasn't good enough. My guess is Andy McCarthy wants to be on the lead this week. Will be a short price and it will be interesting as to how the trip works out.

Race 7 (2:54 PM EST)

2-Tactical Approach (5/2)-The Takter trainee appears to be peaking at the right time, has taken pictures in 3 of the last 4 starts. Won the Hambo from post 10 and Zeron does a great job of putting this colt in a position to win. But not sure his strength is trying to wire the field. It will be interesting to see how this trip unfolds and should be a main player.
8-French Wine (5-1)-Won at Lex on 8-27 and then went to Philly and captured the PASS Championship on 9-3. Took a week off and that may help, this post draw doesn't. Offers some value at the program price and might cash the biggest check with a sharp steer.

Race 8 (3:13 PM EST)

5-Confederate (4/5)-Unless something extraordinary happens the Pelling sophomore wins, it is just a question of how fast the colt goes.

Race 9 (3:32 Pm EST)

1-Railee Something (3-1)-Maybe the case could be made the Burke trainee is better on smaller ovals. But has won 4 of 9 races here and should have the best chance of downing the one below with this post draw. Wired the field from post 6 in the PASS Championship at Philly. Could get a cozy pocket ride and look to make the most of an efficient trip.
3-Special Way (8/5)-Ake Svanstedt has options, could beat this group coming off a helmet or by landing on the point and not looking back. My take is this Walner filly leaves and gets on the engine. The Breeders Crown champ has a perfect 6 for 6 record at The Red Mile, is 4 for 4 this year and has only lost twice in 13 starts.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,2,6/2,8/5/1,3
Total Bet=$12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #3

#6 Mirabella	Don't think she's going to be a big price, but she's not meeting much at all on paper, and those underneath shares at places like Saratoga and Monmouth are probably going to transfer pretty well here.
#7 Ms. Lilibet	She might be the right one to boost the gimmicks a bit with the top choice at a short price, as she has been an honest enough finisher and might plug away for another piece.
#1 Catmint	That Ellis debut run went ok when she couldn't stay late, but she has some room to move forward off that and might stick around better today.
Race Summary	Mirabella looks tough to get past in this spot with solid running lines against good groups, and I don't feel like she's meeting a whole lot on paper -- she should be able to handle these.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#2 Redemption Time	He has been a pretty reliable finisher so far on the dirt, and he might wind up finding a pretty cozy trip from the inside while getting on the grass for the first time. Think the price might be appealing enough to find out...
#3 Lincoln Highway	He gets some class relief after a modest try in stakes company, and he might benefit by trying to sit just a touch closer than he has in some of those recent finishing tries.
#6 Pensacola	Not much wrong from this guy through three starts, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see him handle the new footing here while bringing good recent dirt form with him.
Race Summary	Redemption Time has been rounding into decent form this summer, and I think his pedigree is interesting enough to think he can handle the new footing. Mid-range price chance in a race with a couple solid players.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#5 Jay Bird	He's back off the bench with what might be a price claim on this, as his best work so far came going long on the turf, but he's back off the break with form that was improving on the way to the bench. Worth a look?
#11 Fashion King	He won't be any surprise in here with running lines that look like they should make him tough on the drop, and a good pace-spying trip looks available to him from out here.
#1 Usain	Probably not going to find a champion here in the $50,000 debut, but there really isn't a whole lot of appealing form on paper in this one, so a fresh face might be able to make some noise.
Race Summary	Jay Bird might need a turf route for his best, but I do like that his form was improving earlier this year before heading to the layoff. Thinking he might be ready enough to go here for a thrill at a price?

Emerald Downs - Race #7

#7 Blazingbellablu	She's about as honest as they come and has done really good work over the local footing in the past, and she seems like the right one to come along late and pick these up.
#3 Anthony's Cleopatra	No doubt she's the one to beat in here while moving north with decent California form, but I still think she might be a little bit better on the synthetic footing. Player at a short price.
#1 Young Life Laura	Pace player looks for her third in a row and might be able to flash a little pace from the inside, and she might be able to get brave if the other projected pace player doesn't prompt her too much.
Race Summary	Blazingbellablu has some solid local form and might be just playable enough as the likely second choice if Anthony's Cleopatra takes more cash than she should off the California form.

Emerald Downs - Race #8

#5 Company's Dream	Pace is going to get tested for class here, but he might be fast enough to control the tempo and might be able to stretch this group out a bit while moving around two turns.
#3 Slew's Tiz Whiz	His overall form makes him the right one, but it's worth noting that that was the case ahead of this race last year when he got beat at 1/5, and his form probably isn't quite as imposing this time around. Obvious one to beat, but I think you're supposed to at least take a look around.
#8 Naval Escort	His best game might come around one turn, but he can plug away to get past some of those who aren't staying late, though I feel like he's a bit of a reach on top.
Race Summary	Company's Dream steps up and stretches out with some appeal on the engine if the other sprint-to-route players don't press him too much.

Emerald Downs - Race #9

#9 Lonesome Boy	Never easy to tell who is going to like two turns in a race where all of them are getting their first try, but this guy has run on with some enthusiasm in two short maiden races, and I'm willing to take the chance that he'll appreciate having some more ground to work with.
#6 Rimrock Lake	Nothing wrong with the first two starts in which he drilled easier company, but the waters are a bit deeper today and the two-turn question is looming, too. Player.
#5 Miner League	He has looked like a horse who might like some more room to work with today, and the pedigree definitely suggests the extra racing distance could help him stretch his legs better.
Race Summary	Lonesome Boy has finished well enough going short, and while it's never a sure thing to see a finishing sprinter stretch out, he seems like the type who might just plug along and get past plenty of these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 5	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Minimum) Pick 4 (.50 Minimum)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 5:41P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 17, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. GOODNIGHTSUGAR is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BLOW SUM SMOKE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JAZZ BRUNCH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	BLOW SUM SMOKE	5/2	3/1
6	JAZZ BRUNCH	9/5	4/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	S C ANGEL	5	10/1	Front-runner	69	63	74.2	46.6	36.1
6	JAZZ BRUNCH	6	9/5	Front-runner	72	68	69.0	64.2	60.7
4	PAISLEY'S VISION	4	3/1	Front-runner	61	55	59.4	46.0	37.5
1	GOODNIGHTSUGAR	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	62	51.3	54.4	47.4
3	BLOW SUM SMOKE	3	5/2	Trailer	73	75	38.6	66.0	62.5
2	ADMIRAL'S GARNET	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	72	57.4	50.8	43.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants PassPURCHASE

Grants Pass - Race 5	$2 WPS $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .50 Superfecta $1 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $7,200 • Post: 2:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (RACES AT OR FAIRS OR WA CLASS C TRACKS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GET MY POINT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GET MY POINT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BABY CHOCOLATE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	GET MY POINT	4/1	5/2
6	BABY CHOCOLATE	7/2	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BABY CHOCOLATE	6	7/2	Front-runner	70	58	0.0	61.4	56.4
9	GET MY POINT	9	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	76	64	78.2	65.6	62.6
8	OUR GIRL ASHLEY	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	55	37.7	54.8	43.3
4	R HAPPY PLACE	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	52	0.0	41.0	22.5
5	CAMDEN HIGH	5	9/2	Trailer	70	67	43.2	61.4	54.9
10	SWEET MEG	10	20/1	Trailer	72	63	4.3	52.2	42.7
7	FLY PATTI FLY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	54	58.0	46.2	30.7
1	WARNING SOUND	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	45	11.5	35.2	18.7
3	LILY PAD LAKE	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	45	2.5	47.8	37.8
2	SPORTS FOR WOMEN	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	54	0.0	47.9	36.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Pimlico - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#16 PROVIDING (ML=8/1)
#10 MASHUA (ML=7/2)
#8 FREE ADMISSION (ML=4/1)


PROVIDING - Moves back to a distance at which she ran a speed figure good enough to make her a contender today. This thoroughbred has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 21 to 35 to 49 in succession. I am keen on that last outing on September 3rd at Timonium where she ran second. MASHUA - Have to like the way Capuano has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. This filly gets a weight break of -9 pounds from last race. This could make a difference today. FREE ADMISSION - Faced tougher last out at Timonium. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I believe can be a very key selection factor. This animal is ranked numero uno in this field. Last ran at Timonium and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP lines, I see she was close at the finish line, within five of the winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PUNKIN (ML=9/5), #11 RITAMARLEY (ML=4/1), #12 GANBATTE (ML=9/2),

PUNKIN - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. Will not be easy for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list. RITAMARLEY - I foretell disappointment for this animal in this race. GANBATTE - Going to have a hard go of it with all of the other early speed in this affair. She showed not much at all in the last event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - PROVIDING - Wagering on this horse is a smart move. She possesses the best speed figure in turf sprints.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#16 PROVIDING to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10,16]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [8,10,16] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[8,10,16] with [8,10,16] with [8,10,11,12,16] with [8,10,11,12,16] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[8,10,16] with [8,10,16] with [8,10,11,16] with [8,10,11,12,14,16] with [8,10,11,12,14,16] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 47

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SHOTGUN BILLIE 9/5
# 2 BARRIO SAN JOSE 3/1
# 5 MASTER OF THE NILE 7/2

I have to consider SHOTGUN BILLIE here. Riveralopez has one of the top winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. He has very good class ratings, averaging 62, and has to be considered in this event. Recently Velez has been sizzling which may give the edge to this colt. BARRIO SAN JOSE - Should keep the strong string of finish positions intact this time around. Conditioner boasts strong win numbers at this distance and surface. MASTER OF THE NILE - Going in a dirt sprint race gives this colt a solid shot. This colt has posted some nice finish positions in his last couple of tries.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 RAUSTY TREASURE 5/1
# 6 WIZARDOFMENLOPARK 2/1
# 7 ZURI RISASI 7/2

RAUSTY TREASURE has a quite good shot to take this race. This gelding looks good here since Grieves has a very strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Should go off at a solid price and has some positive attributes going for him. The drastic drop in company can only help out this horse this time around. WIZARDOFMENLOPARK - Has been running well lately and ought to be on the lead early on. At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field of horses. ZURI RISASI - Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 4:22pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#4 LOTSA PEPPER (ML=7/2)
#2 TURA LURA (ML=9/5)


LOTSA PEPPER - A definite class advantage goes to this horse. To me, that's a good indication she will be very competitive in this race on the turf. Didn't do well in the last race, but I do see two starts back when racing on the grass, a whole different animal. Speed rating of 95 should put this one in the money. TURA LURA - This entrant could be tough in today's contest, especially since Chavez rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. You have to consider the solid works of late. This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the distance and surface. This mare has the top turf rating in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here entrant has a good chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TORREY'S GIRL (ML=9/2), #6 BACALAR (ML=6/1), #5 DRESS REHEARSAL (ML=8/1),

TORREY'S GIRL - Last time around the track it was a nice victory, but this time the homestretch is going to be a true test of courage. BACALAR - Tough to bet on any horse in a sprint affair at 6/1 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple months. DRESS REHEARSAL - Difficult to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint contest at 8/1 when she hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last sixty days. I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 8/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LOTSA PEPPER - Put a prime wager on this mare. Number one in earnings per start and has a lot more to offer as well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 LOTSA PEPPER to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Tip Sheet - September 17

Sep. 16, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	No Show Jones	S Rivera
PLACE	5-2	7	Im Gunna	W Antongeorgi III
SHOW	3-1	6	Shining Tiger	E A Roman
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Dads Jubilee	F Duran
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Come Out Fighting	A Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Precedent Luke	L M Jimenez Aburto
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $7,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MIDNIGHT METAL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Midnight Metal	E A Roman
PLACE	5-2	5	Wellswort	A Chavez
SHOW	5-1	2	El Joy	P Flores
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Unusual Code	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Effective Gig	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Love of the Sport	E Garcia
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $31,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Counting Cards	S Rivera
PLACE	9-5	5	Our Bold Prince	W Antongeorgi III
SHOW	4-1	3	The Little H Man	E A Roman
WILD CARD	2-1	4	Blazing Jamie	A Chavez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Alexanders Dream	A Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Runkerry	C Herrera
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #4 $18,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 SHANGHAI MIST
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	3	Shanghai Mist	S Rivera
PLACE	3-1	5	Stateforest	E A Roman
SHOW	4-1	6	Liams Secret	A Espinoza
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Riviera Sunrise	W Antongeorgi III
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Lyinatthebar	F Monroy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Navy Queen	E Garcia
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Street Tiger	A Chavez
PLACE	5-2	3	Justivar	E A Roman
SHOW	10-1	1	Tour Queen	F Duran
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Broadway Tiger	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Last Elizabethan	A Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Susie Cru	C Martinez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #6 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Lotsa Pepper	S Rivera
PLACE	9-2	3	Torreys Girl	E A Roman
SHOW	9-5	2	Tura Lura	A Chavez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Bacalar	W Antongeorgi III
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Blushing Bay	C Martinez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Two Twelve	E Garcia
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $31,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Big Sis Little Sis	E A Roman
PLACE	12-1	7	J and K Express	C Herrera
SHOW	6-1	4	Swall	F Duran
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Pappys Girl	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 1	2-1	1	Tamara Mine	A Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Ladys Sermon	C Martinez
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $22,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 TOWN PERFORMER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Town Performer	I Orozco
PLACE	4-1	4	Easter Tribute	A Espinoza
SHOW	5-1	2	Reserve Proof	C Herrera
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Pass the Baton	A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Zee Carrot Eagle	E A Roman
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	St Boadin	A Chavez
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - September 17

Sep. 16, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $45,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MOONLIT MISCHIEF
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Moonlit Mischief	T J Pereira
PLACE	3-1	6	Sorbet	H I Berrios
SHOW	9-2	4	Con Seal and Kerry	J Torrealba
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Super Annie	H R Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Bad Cardinal	A Escobedo
ALTERNATE 2	2-1	3	Class Clown	J Valdivia Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $22,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Otro Mas	E Payeras
PLACE	2-1	6	Colonel Vargo	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	1	Strength of Autism	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Too Much Info	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Acquired Class	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	San Jac	C Ortega
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:59 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	1	Big Rainbow	J Torrealba
PLACE	8-1	5	Josie Earp	A Ayuso
SHOW	5-2	4	Dorie Miller	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Pura Vida	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Lovme Likeafool	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Fifty Stars	A Alsagoor
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SHARED FUTURE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	6	Shared Future	R A Vazquez
PLACE	8-5	2	Professors Pride	D A Herrera
SHOW	8-1	5	Sugar Sugar	E Payeras
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Classymademoiselle	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	American Heights	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	On Purpose	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $6,250 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Around the Dial	E Payeras
PLACE	3-1	6	Big Cheddar	R A Vazquez
SHOW	9-2	2	Perfecto Amor	E Garcia
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Divinely Diverse	J Pasion
ALTERNATE 1	2-1	1	Brutto	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Whoa Buddy	C Ortega
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Donttestyourluck	E Payeras
PLACE	5-1	5	Whiskey Vision	A Alsagoor
SHOW	7-2	3	Confucius	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	2-1	2	L L L Cool	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Pat Cant Count	A Escobedo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	King Heat	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #7 $47,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 RESILIENT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Resilient	J Valdivia Jr.
PLACE	6-1	2	Smugglers Run	D A Herrera
SHOW	3-1	5	Ambivalent	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Jack Sixpack	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Kingdom Heart	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Cool Papa G	T J Pereira
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $12,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	5	Cathedral Light	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	8	Tangledupingrey	E Payeras
SHOW	2-1	6	Thirsty	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Hot Memories	C Figueroa
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Hey Batman	H R Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Spiritist	A Alsagoor
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $75,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:09 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Handy Dandy	G Franco
PLACE	3-1	5	American Admiral	R A Vazquez
SHOW	2-1	2	Arham	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Its My House	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Salesman	T J Pereira
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 17

Sep. 16, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Like a Saltshaker	C A Emigh
PLACE	3-1	1	Spend Benjamins	R Bejarano
SHOW	5-2	5	Risk Profile	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Junior Bug	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Violent Gigi	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Santa Cruiser	C J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 PATCH OBRIEN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Patch OBrien	F De La Cruz
PLACE	4-1	7	Master Switch	F Arrieta
SHOW	7-2	8	Yuletide Gallop	E Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Del Rayo	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	10	Mor Jazz	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Runlikecarl	G Saez
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	6	Mirabella	T Gaffalione
PLACE	3-1	5	English Treasure	F Arrieta
SHOW	7-2	1	Catmint	F Geroux
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Kick a Rhyme	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Stage Bell	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Ms. Lilibet	G Saez
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 INVALUABLE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Invaluable	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	6	Music Amore	D Cannon
SHOW	4-1	5	Mirth n Merriment	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	10-1	1	My My Munny	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Choctaw Bingo	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Charge Account	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Take Charge J J	R Gutierrez
PLACE	3-1	5	Orange Diablo	F Geroux
SHOW	7-2	9	Shogun Be Fast	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Drobny	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Speedtail	J E Felix
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Yell County	J Loveberry
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX
RACE #6 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Hes Got This	G Corrales
PLACE	3-1	7	Icarus	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-2	5	Trident Hit	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Allege	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Sugoi	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Pledgeofallegiance	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Maxs Map	F Geroux
PLACE	5-2	1	Handsome Herb	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	2	Andys Candy	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	5-1	8	Agoo	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Stretch Ride	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	With Full Honors	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 PARODY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Parody	T Gaffalione
PLACE	8-1	9	Condensation	R Bejarano
SHOW	8-1	10	Miss Arlington	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Wilma Mankiller	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Topsy	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Magical Lute	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX
RACE #9 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	3	Lincoln Highway	R Bejarano
PLACE	3-1	6	Pensacola	F Geroux
SHOW	3-1	13	Mischievous Angel	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Unleash the Power	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	12	Mackillop	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Redemption Time	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/13 BOX, 5/6/13 BOX
RACE #10 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	11	Fashion King	C A Torres
PLACE	12-1	9	Dreamwithinadream	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	5-1	8	Enough Already	J Talamo
WILD CARD	4-1	10	Alilnalot	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	14	Rivoli	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	15	Away From Home	M Chuan
* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/11 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 17

Sep. 15, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 6F TURF] – (4) Fontanafredda (B) tossed her head and lunged at the start and then just missed the win by a head. (2) Get the Candy has not run against NY-breds in more than a year when she was a winner at this same level. (1) Itsakeyper had two wins in open claimers before running third and second against state-breds at this condition. (5) Masterof the Tunes has early speed which fits well in the race that is projected to have a slow pace.
5^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (9) Vin Santo (B) raced greenly in his debut just two weeks ago at Saratoga and got disqualified after a rough and wild stretch run. (3) Frozen Four moves back to the turf where he finished third in his first start. (5) Charging Fast will make his first start for Chad Brown with an extensive work tab. (6) B D Saints has three career starts that were good and moves back to the turf after changing to the barn of Linda Rice.
7^th race [Clm 16000 N2L, 6F] – (1) Moving Pictures missed by a nose two races back racing at today’s level and is expected to get a favorable pace scenario. (8) Hatch gets blinkers on and drops down to the lowest price of his career. (9) Kbcya Later made his 2023 debut at Saratoga and drops down to a much softer spot. (7) Makar trained at Saratoga but did not run there and returns after a two-month layoff and drops down in class.
8^th race [OC 62k/N2X, 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Costa Terra ran three times at Saratoga and won a first level allowance followed by two narrow losses at today’s condition. (3) Film Star ran first or second in his last seven races and could get loose on the lead in this field. (4) Iron Works got a short freshening by Todd Pletcher and should be forwardly placed. (2) Wild Banker has been in good form this year and won 6 out of 7 times at Aqueduct.
Best bets: Fontanafredda (2^nd); Costa Terra (8^th). Best value: Vin Santo (5^th); Moving Pictures (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(4)	Fontanafredda	B on 7/23	2	Tossed head, lunged at start, and then missed win by a head.
(9)	Vin Santo	B on 9/2	5	Raced greenly in debut, dq’d to last after wild stretch run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 17

Sep. 15, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Like a Saltshaker showed speed when second at Hawthorne and can register a win here. (4) Junior Bug was a wide second last time and should work out a better trip here. (5) Risk Profile was claimed in his last two starts and fits well in this group. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5.
3rd race – (6) Mirabella was hurt by a wide trip last time and should work out a winning journey here with more distance. (8) Kick a Rhyme may improve with blinkers. (1) Catmint will benefit from a rail trip. (5) English Treasure could wind up in the picture. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-8.
5th race – (5) Orange Diablo debuts for Cox and looks best here. (6) Take Charge J J may prefer the main track. (9) Shogun Be Fast has the look of a promising runner. (2) Drobny is another firster who could be a factor. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-9.
7th race – (1) Handsome Herb was a game second in his debut and should graduate today. (6) Max’s Map has put in some sharp works for his debut. (8) Agoo is worth a look in his first start. (5) Stretch Ride could be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-8. Doubles: 1-5-6-8 with 2-3-4-8.
8th race – (8) Wilma Mankiller seeks a third straight win for Rivelli and merits top billing. (2) Parody has been absent since February but is working quickly for her comeback and is the one to fear. (3) Unsung Melody will get some class relief after running in stakes. (4) Topsy also exits stakes company and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-8.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $30700 Class Rating: 94

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 J SUPER CORONA 6/1
# 6 RELENTLESS ANVIL 7/2
# 5 LAJOLLAS LEGACY 9/2

I lean toward J SUPER CORONA here. Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 83 avg - of late. The speed rating of 95 from his latest race looks decent in here. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. RELENTLESS ANVIL - He has earned quite good figs under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this group of horses. Put up a decent speed figure last time out. LAJOLLAS LEGACY - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this group. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 2 for 9 in his races recently.