Sunday 9/24/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Mike Williams

1* on Lions-3 -115

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Jaguars-7.5 -109

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Commanders+6 +100

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Matt Fargo

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS-2.5 -110 for our Sunday Free Play. The Jets put up a gallant effort against Buffalo in the season opener as it won in overtime after quarterback Aaron Rodgers going down after only four plays. The defense came up big against Josh Allen which has been the case for a while but they regressed last week against a Dallas offense that simply went through the motions because that is all that was needed. Zach Wilson was getting praise throughout camp learning from Rodgers but he clearly is not the answer. While he was efficient against Buffalo by completing 67 percent of his passes, he did not go down field in throwing for just 140 yards and he was a disaster last week with a 38.1 rating. Now he faces a Bill Belichick led defense that will cause more fits. New England is 0-2 with two tough losses against quality opposition and both games were right there for the taking. Early turnovers have hurt the Patriots and going into Week Three, they are ranked No. 32 in the Luck Rankings which shows them being the unluckiest team than what their on-field performance indicates. Quarterback Mac Jones is learning a new system under offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and he has looked comfortable with the exception of two bad throws. He completed 74 percent of his passes last week and his early quarterback rating is closer to what it was in 2021 than what it was last season. This is the first 0-2 start for New England since 2001 and while Tom Brady is not here to help the rebound, this is a spot Belichick has flourished in with or without Brady as he is 18-3 following consecutive losses including 5-0 the last two years. Play (457) New England Patriots

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Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Off to an 0-2 start, it's not exactly desperation time for Sean Payton's Broncos, but it's getting close. The Dolphins are off to a perfect 2-0 start following consecutive road victories, including a narrow win over the division-rival Patriots last Sunday night in Foxborough. While Miami is expected to have LT Terron Armstead back on the field, it is likely to be missing Jaylen Waddle in its receiving corps. I don't think Waddle's absence can be understated. That means the Broncos can put Patrick Surtain II on Tyreek Hill primarily, taking the pressure off of the rest of their defense. There's absolutely nothing special about this matchup for the Dolphins offense. The question becomes whether the Denver offense can do enough to put any pressure on Miami's defense. I've come away encouraged by what I've seen from Broncos QB Russell Wilson through the first two games. WR Jerry Jeudy returned last week and should put some pressure on the Miami secondary here. I believe this line should be closer to a field goal. Take Denver.

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Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on WAS+6 +100

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Commander are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference.

- The Commanders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

- The Bills are 1-4 ATS versus. a team with a winning record.

Verdict: The value is on the home underdog.

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Mike Lundin

Mike's Texans/Jaguars NFL Free Pick

The Houston Texans are coming into Week 3 at 0-2 SU/ATS, but I think they can at least get an ATS cover here against a Jacksonville team that mustered only 271 yards of total offense in a loss to KC in Week 2.

While the Texans have nothing to show for it so far, QB C.J. Stroud has arguably been the NFL's best rookie quarterback through two weeks, and the Texans are entering the week with the fifth most passing yards in the NFL. As such, the backdoor will be wide open for a cover even if the Jags get an early lead.

I think the Texans can keep this within a touchdown, and note that over the last three seasons, the Jags are only 2-6 ATS as a favorite.

2* free pick on the Texans+8

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Texans/Jaguars over 43

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -2

The New Orleans Saints are off to a 2-0 start this season against a pretty weak schedule. I think they are getting too much respect for their two wins, and they should be at least a 3-point underdog here against the Green Bay Packers. We are getting good value here laying this short number with the Packers at home.

The Saints opened the season with a 1-point home win over the Tennessee Titans despite being gifted 3 interceptions from Ryan Tannehill. Last week, the Saints beat the Panthers by 3 on the road. That's the same Panthers team that lost by 14 on the road to the Falcons the week prior and looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL to this point. That makes this a short week for the Saints after playing on Monday Night Football, and this is clearly a step up in class for them this week.

I think if you asked the Packers prior to the season they would have taken a 1-1 start considering their first two games came on the road. After blasting the Bears 38-20, the Packers blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead to the Falcons last week and lost 25-24 on a last-minute field goal. You can bet they will be out for blood this week after playing seven great quarters and one terrible one that cost them a 2-0 start.

Now the Packers will be playing their home opener with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL. They will be fired up in support of Jordan Love's home debut. Love has been very good with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 35 rushing yards and 7.0 per carry thus far. After not having two of his best weapons against the Falcons in WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones, there's a chance he gets both back this week. Watson returned to practice and is probable, while Jones is a 50/50 proposition.

The Packers are fully healthy on defense and improved. The Saints are only scoring 18.0 points per game this season and are dealing with injuries of their own on offense. They just aren't nearly as explosive without Alvin Kamara, who will miss this game as well. His replacement Jamaal Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury. QB Taysom Hill has been getting a lot of work in the backfield as a result, and even he's questionable with a knee injury.

Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS in September games as the coach of Green Bay. LaFleur is 10-2 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Packers. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. conference opponents. The Packers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a road game. Bet the Packers Sunday.

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Freddy Wills

Jets/ Patriots Under 36.5 1.1% Free play

87-65 Last 152 Free NFL Picks

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Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Saints/Packers UNDER 43

The Key: There are expected to be 20 MPH winds and higher at Lambeu Field in Green Bay on Sunday. High winds are an UNDER bettors' friend, and points will be hard to come by in this game between the Saints and Packers because of it. Both of these offenses have key injuries right now with the Saints having injuries in the backfield, and the Packers having injuries in the backfield, at receiver and on the offensive line. I think both defenses control this game Sunday. The Saints have allowed 20 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games now. The Packers have an improved defense and a great secondary and should hold Derek Carr and company in check. Take the UNDER.

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Brandon Lee

7* NFL Broncos/Dolphins Free Pick

PLAY ON DENVER BRONCOS +6.5

I like the Broncos to cover the 6.5-point spread on the road against the Dolphins. Even though Denver has started out 0-2, there's no denying that they are a much better team than they were a year ago. The offense is putting up 24.5 ppg and 5.9 yards/play. I like Russell Wilson and this Broncos offense to be able to move the ball against a Dolphins defense that is giving up 25.5 ppg and 360 ypg. I also think the Denver defense will be able to hold their own against this high-powered Miami offense. Sean Payton is 16-6 ATS in 22 road games as a head coach as a dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Russell Wilson is 12-5 ATS in games as a dog of 3 to 10 points and 158-8 ATS in his last 23 as a road dog. Give me the Broncos +6.5!

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Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 9-24-23

Houston @ Jacksonville (1:00 PM EST)
Play On: Houston +8

The Houston Texans travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Houston is 0-2 overall this year while Jacksonville comes in with a 1-1 overall record on the season. Houston is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after a SU favorite loss. Houston is 12-2 ATS last 14 games after a Double Digit ATS loss. Houston is 18-6 ATS last 24 games against a division opponent on Sunday when off a SU and ATS loss. Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Jacksonville past 3 years including 2-0 SU and ATS when playing at Jacksonville. The public is all over Jacksonville here so I'll gladly take the other side. We'll recommend a small play on Houston today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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ASA

#467 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +8.5 at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are on the visiting dog here with the Colts and the points. Let’s start with the scheduling and preceding results for both teams. Baltimore is off a big road win over an AFC North rival Cincinnati, are a ‘fat’ 2-0, and have road dates looming at Cleveland and Pittsburgh. We are not overly impressed with either of the Ravens wins as they were largely outplayed in Week #1 by the Texans at home, then beat a struggling Bengals team with an injured QB in Burrows. The Colts meanwhile lost by 10pts at home in the opener to a Jags team that scored two TD’s in the final 5:14 of the game. Last week the Colts went to Houston and beat the Texans 31-21 and averaged 6.3 yards per play offensively. Indianapolis was balanced with 126-rushing yards and 227-passing. They did lose QB Richardson in the game with a concussion, but Gardner Minshew might be the best backup in the league. Minshew came into the game and went 19 of 23 for 171-yards and a TD. Based on some core statistics there isn’t an 8-point difference between these two teams. The Colts allowed 4.9YPP (12th best) the Ravens allow 4.3YPP (4th). Indianapolis averages 5.1YPP offensively, the Ravens average 5.3YPP. Baltimore is just 14-24 ATS since 2018 as a home favorite with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. Looking at that same time frame, the Colts are 17-11-2 ATS as a road dog (60.7%) with an average +/- versus the spread of +1.4PPG. Grab the points and the dog.

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Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY Patriots-2.5 -115