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Sunday 9/24/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Given that the Ravens are one of the more banged-up teams in the NFL - if not the most injured team - and are in a division sandwich this spot sets up well for the Colts to stay within a touchdown. The line is past a touchdown because Anthony Richardson is out with a concussion. But the Colts might be better off in this tough road setting with veteran backup Gardner Minshew. Of course Richardson is the more spectacular player. Minshew, though, is less inclined to make mistakes and is the more accurate passer. He's one of the best second-string quarterbacks in the NFL. Indianapolis has a strong pass rush and the Ravens are minus perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum out. Gus Edwards is Baltimore's lone decent healthy running back with J.K. Dobbins out for the season and Justice Hill ruled out with a foot injury. Lamar Jackson will have one less quality receiver to throw to with Odell Beckham Jr. out with an ankle injury. The Ravens also have injuries on defense with cornerback Marlon Humphrey, safety Marcus Williams and linebacker Odafe Oweh ruled out. It's the Colts who could have the best defensive player on the field in Zaire Franklin. He leads the NFL in tackles. Baltimore is fat and happy at 2-0. The Ravens, however, were out-gained by the Texans in Week 1 and were able to beat the Bengals last week with Joe Burrow still rusty. Up next for the Ravens is an AFC North Division road game against the Browns. So this could be both a look-ahead and letdown spot for Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-10 (33 percent) ATS the past 15 times they've been favored.
My friends, I could make this analysis as short and sweet as I am, and just say “this is way too many points for Jacksonville to be laying.” Guys, I am fully aware of the fact the Houston Texans are 0-2, both straight up and against the spread the season. I have been reading this week because the Texans lost last week to the Colts, 31-20, we should fade them because the Jaguars defeated the Colts a few weeks ago, 31-21. That is a huge mistake made by sports bettors all the time. Sure, you can gauge a few things against how one team plays a certain team as opposed to another. But football is about situations. And this is a very different situation. Prior to the January 1, 2023 Jacksonville win over Houston, the Texans took the nine previous meetings in this series straight up, going 7-2 against the spread. The Texans have always played the Jaguars very tough, my friends. No question Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback. No question CJ Stroud isn’t as far along as many had hoped this early in the season. But right now, after just a few games in to the regular season, the Texans possess the fifth ranked passing unit in the NFL, while the Jaguars own the 15th ranked passing offense. The fact that neither team is really running the ball with any success, tells me that this will come down to mistakes. And right now, Lawrence has made a few more miscues than Stroud. And on top of that, when it comes down to crunch time, and by that, I mean in the red zone, the Jaguars have come up way short. Do I think on paper t they were a better team than the Texans? Absolutely I do. But football isn’t played on paper. And I feel this is way too many points for this team to lay. FYI, my friends, Houston has covered three of their last four as a visitor. Take the points for the Texans. Thank you.
With an 0-2 record, Payton's team is going to be extremely focused. Perhaps more so than the Dolphins. Miami is off a divisional victory and has a big showdown at Buffalo on deck. The Dolphins' two wins have come by an average of 4.5. The Broncos' two losses have come by an average of 1.5. In a game that will likely also be close, I recommend grabbing the points with the visiting Broncos.
The Panthers (0-2, 0-1-1 ATS) are gearing up to face the Seahawks (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Lumen Field, with kickoff set for 4PM. It's a crucial match as both teams look to improve their NFC records. The betting odds tell a compelling story. The Seahawks are currently sitting at -6.5 points. When it comes to the ML, the Hawks are at -290, while the Panthers stand at +235. The Total, is set at 41.5 (O/U). As we approach Sunday betting action, the Seahawks' number has seen a slight dip, reflecting the influence of sharp money or public money flowing in on Carolina.
The injury reports are a mess, and as I write this we still don't have the Friday NFL reports, so please check those out there are a number of key injuries on both sides in this one. They do play a factor.
Bryce Young is going to get an introduction to a road-game-playoff-atmosphere on Sunday in Seattle. Always one of the loudest venues to play at Lumen can be a nightmare for rookie QB's trying to make adjustments at the line. (It's damn near impossible). Bobby Wagner will have this Hawks D flying all over the field on Sunday, and IF they get Jamal Adams back (I think they do) it will be even tougher for Young.
The Panthers are losing defensive starters daily. Horn, then Thompson. These guys are needed to win road games when facing the likes of Smith, Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba. This is a tall task for the Panthers defense. Throw in Walker III and Charbonnet coming down hill at you all day and this doesn't look good.
IF for some reason Dalton starts the 7 points (Hawks will cover the 5) will be tougher to cover, but having said that with Young, the Hawks will win by 10-14). The Hawks got right last week with a huge road win over the Lions in a crazy loud Detroit.
Some trends to note, Carolina are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road, are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Seattle.
This is a long trip for the Panthers on a short week, and we're on the Hawks -5 on Sunday.
Cowboys/Cardinals 4:25: Cowboys first two games as dominant as it gets. The defense, led by All-Pro Parsons, has feasted on QBs thus far. I don't see career backup QB Dobbs doing any damage with average skill personnel at his disposal. The Cardinals will likely lean on tough RB Connor but the Cowboys, which rank in the top tier in virtually every category, should stall out him and pedestrian Cardinals' pass game (26th in league) despite the loss of CB Diggs. Offensively, Cowboys doing just fine with McCarthy calling the plays nowadays. We'll lay the wood with Dallas.
The Dallas Cowboys have outscored their first two opponents in the Giants and Jets by a combined 70-10 score. It will be more of the same here against the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have opened 2-0 ATS with losses but covers against Washington and the Giants. Now they take a big step up in competition here against the Cowboys. Josh Dobbs won't be able to match Dak and company score for score. The Cowboys also clearly have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this season. Their defensive line will dominate this game up front against a shaky Arizona offensive line. Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Daniel Jones torched them in the second half last week. Jones has looked terrible in his two other games this season. Arizona is without several key players on defense including S Budda Baker. Dallas is 15-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. Give me the Cowboys.
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