Thursday 9/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359679

    Thursday 9/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359679

    #2
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Presque Isle Downs - Race #1
    #6 Brooklyn Girlee Think she has some appeal in the local debut after bouncing back last out off the modest Saratoga run. She's probably fast enough to keep in the frame early from out here and makes a lot of sense.
    #2 No Tappin Out Think he has a right to be tough in here while racing off the bench, as that Turfway Park debut back in January was pretty solid when he ran on late to land second. Threat, especially if a couple of the potential forward players keep things honest up top.
    #4 Accept the Outcome She's another one with a claim on this in what feels like a pretty tough little spot for the local level. She rallied well on the turf last out but has also shown some ability from closer to the pace, and that versatility gives her rider some options to adapt as this unfolds.
    Race Summary Brooklyn Girlee might be a decent fit with these and has the right kind of style to find a favorable trip from the wide draw. Hoping the presence of a few interesting players on paper will keep the price playable.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #6
    #6 Beryl Racer She should appreciate the move away from Kentucky Downs and the class relief while in for a tag for the first time, and she has at least shown some ability to get past horses which makes her really dangerous in a race full of runners who stop late.
    #3 Two Hearted She got a trip to Kentucky out of a couple decent efforts here to start her career, and I think the Matejka barn probably has this one locked down with one of these top two.
    #8 Warrior Bernice Get a look at her on the track and tote, as she's not meeting a whole lot in this debut run and wouldn't need a huge effort to make some noise or even land this. Wouldn't surprise.
    Race Summary Beryl Racer's two-back start is the key here for me, as she draws outside of a bunch of horses who have shown little interest in kicking home late, and I think a well-timed finishing move gets her home. If not, her more tactical stablemate Two Hearted makes a lot of sense, too.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #7
    #2 Digital Footprint Think he's got just enough positional pace to settle off the few forward players today while still getting the jump on a couple of really logical finishers. Could see the price being fair enough.
    #1 Guaco I think he's supposed to win this on paper after having his three-race winning streak broken last out, and he definitely benefits if the more committed pace players all show up a bit.
    #6 Fuel the Bern He steps up after handling cheaper in both of those last two, but he was gifted the lead last out and probably has some company today. Not impossible while in good form, but I'm not sure I take his last at full face value.
    Race Summary Wasn't quite sure where #8 County Court fits in here, but he probably belongs on any wider tickets. Digital Footprint has some midrange price appeal with a lot of one-paced kind of finishing efforts on his page -- that sounds bad, but I think that kind of style might land him a pretty dreamy run of the race here.
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 359679

      #3
      Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


      Remington Park - Race #1
      #6 DRIFTING WEST (9-2) Figures tough on best, but last two Remington starts weren’t among them.
      #1 ROYALLY (5-1) Steady check getter can make good use of his speed from the rail in this spot.
      #5 FOREVAMO (4-1) Rallied for minor awards in last four starts but remained winless since 2021.
      Race Summary DRIFTING WEST finished second in four of his last eight starts on dirt with at least a month off between starts. He drops in class off a dull try at Remington but still looms a major threat at a proven distance. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-6 exacta box.
      Remington Park - Race #2
      #5 FULLY FUNDED (12-1) Live price play in pace-less race; dam excelled on the grass.
      #6 GRACE’S HANK (4-1) Followed move on winning fave, ran third in crowded debut.
      #9 ILLUSTRATOR (5-1) Draws outside for high-percentage first-out barn, watch odds.
      Race Summary FULLY FUNDED was unhurried in a well-bet debut sprint on the main track but could be forwardly placed a long way on the stretch-out in distance and switch to the turf. His dam, Exchange Funds, won three times – including a stakes race – on the Belmont Park lawn. Bet to win and place and play a 5,6/5,6,9/ALL trifecta.
      Remington Park - Race #8
      #1 BECKY’S TATOO (8-1) Regained winning confidence in first main-track start for barn, now 5-13 on dirt.
      #7 SUPER WONDER GIRL (5-2) Won at Oaklawn, Churchill and Ellis to top $200k in 6F earnings.
      #5 ROSY EDGE (5-1) Idle two months since Diodoro claim, broke maiden at Santa Anita.
      Race Summary BECKY’S TATOO changed tactics on the class drop and responded with a 5-length, wire-to-wire victory at today’s distance. The race timed faster than a nw/3 allowance for Oklahoma breds on the same card. The price is right for a win and place bet.
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 359679

        #4
        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

        PURCHASE
        Charles Town - Race 2
        Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
        Allowance • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 74 • Purse: $28,400 • Post: 7:30P
        FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
        Contenders
        Race Analysis
        P#
        Horse
        Morn
        Line
        Accept
        Odds

        Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MAKIN' GOLD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAKIN' GOLD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARDL Y EVER BETTER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TURTLE DOVE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
        3
        MAKIN' GOLD
        5/2
        4/1
        4
        HARDLY EVER BETTER
        9/5
        9/2
        2
        TURTLE DOVE
        10/1
        8/1

        P#
        Horse (In Running Style Order)
        Post
        Morn
        Line
        Running Style
        Good
        Class
        Good
        Speed
        Early Figure
        Finish Figure
        Platinum
        Figure
        3
        MAKIN' GOLD
        3
        5/2
        Front-runner
        73
        70
        82.8
        68.0
        60.0
        4
        HARDLY EVER BETTER
        4
        9/5
        Front-runner
        70
        69
        74.8
        63.6
        59.6
        2
        TURTLE DOVE
        2
        10/1
        Front-runner
        67
        58
        72.4
        59.8
        49.8
        6
        TEACHINTHERELEASE
        6
        2/1
        Stalker
        72
        70
        68.8
        65.0
        60.0
        5
        JUBA BOUND
        5
        8/1
        Alternator/Stalker
        75
        67
        56.0
        64.2
        58.7
        1
        REATA'S CASTLE
        1
        12/1
        Alternator/Non-contender
        76
        67
        45.4
        57.4
        48.9
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 359679

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE


          Camarero - Race 1
          Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
          Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 48 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 2:45P
          FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
          Contenders
          Race Analysis
          P#
          Horse
          Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds

          Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GREY CAFE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GREY CAFE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PICU SPEED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SON QUITAO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
          1
          GREY CAFE
          4/1
          7/2
          3
          PICU SPEED
          5/1
          6/1
          5
          SON QUITAO
          10/1
          7/1

          P#
          Horse (In Running Style Order)
          Post
          Morn
          Line
          Running Style
          Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure
          Finish Figure
          Platinum
          Figure
          1
          GREY CAFE
          1
          4/1
          Front-runner
          42
          41
          36.8
          36.8
          32.3
          6
          COMPASIVO
          6
          2/1
          Alternator/Stalker
          35
          33
          28.4
          31.3
          24.3
          3
          PICU SPEED
          3
          5/1
          Alternator/Trailer
          56
          44
          44.4
          31.0
          26.5
          5
          SON QUITAO
          5
          10/1
          Alternator/Trailer
          49
          41
          42.6
          38.0
          32.5
          4
          CAPITAN PIZARRO
          4
          10/1
          Alternator/Non-contender
          33
          22
          31.7
          20.7
          9.7
          2
          EMPRENDEDOR
          2
          7/2
          Alternator/Non-contender
          29
          27
          23.4
          20.7
          12.2
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 359679

            #6
            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

            PURCHASE
            Always check program numbers.
            Odds shown are morning line odds.




            Race 4 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 93

            QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. TOTAL EARNINGS 2022/2023 PREFERRED.

            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
            # 1 EYE WILL DECIDE 9/5
            # 4 THE KINGS HORSE 5/1
            # 5 WL MYLIPSHURTREALBAD 4/1
            EYE WILL DECIDE is the best wager in this race. Guzman has a solid 25 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Looks strong versus this group of animals and ought to be one of the front-runners. Should expect a formidable attempt with the class drop. THE KINGS HORSE - He has garnered formidable figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this field. Garnered a very good speed fig last time out. WL MYLIPSHURTREALBAD - Could beat this field given the 87 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing. Has been constatntly running well as of late.
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 359679

              #7
              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

              PURCHASE


              Presque Isle Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 71

              Rating:

              #3 TWO HEARTED (ML=6/1)
              #8 WARRIOR BERNICE (ML=7/2)
              #6 BERYL RACER (ML=4/1)


              TWO HEARTED - Great chance for this racer. Big late speed and should have good position. The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Matejka. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This filly is tops in EPS (earnings per start). Check out this thoroughbred in the post parade. WARRIOR BERNICE - This jock and handler's horses have been generating a lucrative ROI. It don't take a university education like someone like my buddy Brain has to figure this one out. We have a first timer with a trainer (Girten) who is wonderful taking horses out for the first time. First-timer has works over the Presque Isle Downs strip, which is always a plus. BERYL RACER - Filly is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a good performance today. Just look at her recent speed rating, 58. That one fits well in this group. Maiden is switching to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden.

              Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HOT MOCHA (ML=9/2), #4 Z INDY LINDY (ML=5/1), #1 NOW I'M HERE (ML=8/1),

              Z INDY LINDY - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last two races around the track. Finished seventh in her most recent performance with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. NOW I'M HERE - Couldn't close ground at all on September 10th. Hard to wager on this time at the expected odds.


              STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #3 TWO HEARTED to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
              EXACTA WAGERS: 3 with [6,8]

              TRIFECTA WAGERS:
              Box [3,6,8] Total Cost: $6
              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [3,6,8] with [3,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 359679

                #8
                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                PURCHASE


                Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 51

                Rating:

                #3 FAST AS FAST CAN B (ML=8/1)
                #5 YOU'RE OUT (ML=4/1)


                FAST AS FAST CAN B - This horse could be tough this race, especially since Halledeen rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. As the only speedball in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. This entrant brings in a lot of money per race. I believe he can increase that total in today's race. YOU'RE OUT - Faced tougher last out at Thistledown. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders. Look for this gelding to show better in today's race. Last race at Thistledown finishing fourth on a track listed as good is no indication of his true talent.

                Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AFLEET O ME (ML=2/1), #6 KETTLE KING (ML=3/1), #1 CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS (ML=5/1),

                AFLEET O ME - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled once in a while. KETTLE KING - No victories for this racer at Thistledown. CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the money though. A bit of a lackluster effort when this gelding finished fifth. This racer ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will likely suffer defeat today running that figure.

                GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FAST AS FAST CAN B - I play this angle all the time. Top Power Rating and morning line odds of at least 5/1.





                STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #3 FAST AS FAST CAN B on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds
                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,5]

                TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                None
                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 359679

                  #9
                  Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

                  PURCHASE
                  Always check program numbers.
                  Odds shown are morning line odds.




                  Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $90000 Class Rating: 93

                  OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

                  RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                  # 1 SACRED RHYME 7/2
                  # 7 RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) 9/5
                  # 9 QUALITY CHIC 4/5
                  SACRED RHYME has a quite good shot to take this race. Reason to like this colt as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Put up a competitive speed rating last time out. May best this group here, showing very good figures of late. RIGHT TO WIN (IRE) - He should be given a chance given the competitive speed figures. Always tough to beat Brown and Prat working together, winning 19 percent of their races. QUALITY CHIC - The speed fig of 94 from his latest contest looks solid in here.
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                  Comment

                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 16966

                    #10
                    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

                    Churchill Downs - Race 6
                    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Super Hi-5
                    Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 86 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 7:25P
                    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.
                    Contenders
                    Race Analysis
                    P#
                    Horse
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Accept
                    Odds

                    Race Type: Lone Stalker. TRICOLOUR is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TRICOLOUR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CURLIN S INCHARGE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WASHINGTON'S UNION: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Hor se has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
                    6
                    TRICOLOUR
                    4/1
                    7/2
                    1
                    CURLINS INCHARGE
                    3/1
                    9/2
                    3
                    WASHINGTON'S UNION
                    9/2
                    8/1

                    P#
                    Horse (In Running Style Order)
                    Post
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Running Style
                    Good
                    Class
                    Good
                    Speed
                    Early Figure
                    Finish Figure
                    Platinum
                    Figure
                    4
                    GOLDEN FLASH
                    4
                    7/2
                    Front-runner
                    78
                    56
                    64.0
                    62.8
                    52.3
                    1
                    CURLINS INCHARGE
                    1
                    3/1
                    Alternator/Front-runner
                    87
                    82
                    59.1
                    66.3
                    62.8
                    6
                    TRICOLOUR
                    6
                    4/1
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    80
                    75
                    60.6
                    75.6
                    70.6
                    7
                    GO CATS
                    7
                    4/1
                    Trailer
                    85
                    59
                    59.7
                    62.0
                    56.0
                    2
                    EXEMPLIFIED
                    2
                    10/1
                    Trailer
                    0
                    0
                    29.4
                    56.9
                    43.4
                    3
                    WASHINGTON'S UNION
                    3
                    9/2
                    Alternator/Trailer
                    80
                    64
                    64.0
                    66.9
                    59.4
                    5
                    SILVER RALEIGH
                    5
                    8/1
                    Alternator/Non-contender
                    0
                    0
                    59.6
                    61.5
                    53.0

                    Comment

                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 16966

                      #11
                      Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                      Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,400 Class Rating: 86

                      Rating:

                      #4 BOSS E BOOGS (ML=5/1)
                      #5 MARCHED (ML=12/1)


                      BOSS E BOOGS - This horse fits one of my favorite angles. A thoroughbred that has a gate work since his last race and gets blinkers on for today's race. That signals to me that the connections are looking for improvement. My pals and I have made dough playing ponies with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same.MARCHED - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. A win percentage like 33 is tremendous for any jockey/handler pair. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid contest on September 15th.

                      Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUBA'S HAT TRICK (ML=8/5), #2 PAYMENGOLD (ML=2/1), #6 LORD OF CORK (ML=9/2),

                      JUBA'S HAT TRICK - 8/5 is not priced right for any entrant in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance race recently.PAYMENGOLD - Can't really be sure that the recent speed rating of 82 is true since it was garnered on an off track. LORD OF CORK - Didn't look so hot last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's race.

                      GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BOSS E BOOGS - On a tight track, my statistics say the advantage goes to the early pace setter in posts 1 thru 4. That's the situation we have here, so take a good look at this gelding.




                      STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #4 BOSS E BOOGS to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
                      EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,5]

                      TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                      None
                      SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 16966

                        #12
                        Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

                        Always check program numbers.
                        Odds shown are morning line odds.




                        Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17400 Class Rating: 51

                        FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

                        RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                        # 3 FAST AS FAST CAN B 8/1
                        # 1 CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS 5/1
                        # 4 AFLEET O ME 2/1
                        I lean toward FAST AS FAST CAN B for this event and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Recently Halledeen has been scorching which may give the edge to this gelding. I like Halledeen on this gelding to give him a formidable chance to hit the wire first. Have to sense that this entrant will do well following the quick turnaround. CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Radosevich running at this distance are the best in this group. Recent figures for the rider - 17 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses. AFLEET O ME - When a trainer brings any equine back this soon it is a positive sign. Could beat this group given the 57 Equibase speed fig earned in his last outing.

                        Comment

                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 16966

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

                          Always check program numbers.
                          Odds shown are morning line odds.




                          Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 26

                          FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

                          RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                          # 5 WILMA MY LOVE 10/1
                          # 2 ABUELA CUCA 5/1
                          # 9 CORPULENTA 4/1
                          WILMA MY LOVE has a decent shot to take this contest and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Ramos has her trained soundly to break promptly out of the gate. The class figure of today's race is much lower than her last contest. Ramos has a solid 33 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. ABUELA CUCA - Look for a much stronger effort with the drop. Her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at her. CORPULENTA - This filly has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play. Her chances to prove victorious are much better today facing this easier group.

                          Comment

                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 16966

                            #14
                            F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

                            Delaware Park - Race 3
                            $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-5) .50 MIDDLE Pick 4 (Races 3-6)
                            Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 64 •Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:30P
                            (PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 28, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
                            Contenders
                            Race Analysis
                            P#
                            Horse
                            Morn
                            Line
                            Accept
                            Odds

                            Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DESI'S REWARD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DESI'S REWARD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has t he highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
                            7
                            DESI'S REWARD
                            8/1
                            5/2

                            P#
                            Horse (In Running Style Order)
                            Post
                            Morn
                            Line
                            Running Style
                            Good
                            Class
                            Good
                            Speed
                            Early Figure
                            Finish Figure
                            Platinum
                            Figure
                            7
                            DESI'S REWARD
                            7
                            8/1
                            Front-runner
                            68
                            56
                            78.6
                            56.2
                            51.2
                            6
                            CATALENA
                            6
                            4/1
                            Stalker
                            56
                            50
                            63.0
                            50.1
                            40.1
                            3
                            EARLEY ROSE
                            3
                            8/1
                            Alternator/Stalker
                            67
                            65
                            61.6
                            54.2
                            47.2
                            1
                            PRUSSIAN BLUE
                            1
                            15/1
                            Alternator/Stalker
                            63
                            58
                            34.8
                            45.6
                            38.6
                            2
                            MERGER OF EQUALS
                            2
                            2/1
                            Alternator/Trailer
                            60
                            55
                            58.6
                            46.6
                            35.1
                            8
                            DANCE STEP
                            8
                            3/1
                            Alternator/Trailer
                            70
                            69
                            40.8
                            54.0
                            47.5
                            5
                            DUNE JUMPER
                            5
                            15/1
                            Alternator/Non-contender
                            53
                            63
                            65.3
                            31.7
                            17.7
                            4
                            SUZY Q THE QUEEN
                            4
                            8/1
                            Alternator/Non-contender
                            53
                            55
                            51.9
                            33.4
                            23.4

                            Comment

                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 16966

                              #15
                              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                              Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 5:29pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 80

                              Rating:

                              #4 ARDEN'S ASSAULT (ML=5/1)
                              #5 JACKIE'S SPIRIT (ML=2/1)
                              #1 ATHENAIS (ML=5/2)


                              ARDEN'S ASSAULT - Faced tougher last time out at Kentucky Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. This horse picks up a lot of dough per race around the track. Number one in this race. JACKIE'S SPIRIT - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a high winning percent, right around 33. ATHENAIS - This jockey and handler's animals have been generating a lucrative ROI.

                              Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF (ML=4/1), #7 FAST GAL (ML=6/1),

                              SUMMER OF MISCHIEF - Just cannot play this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything in the last race or on November 25th. This horse doesn't have a winning temperament. Always finishes close, but no cigar. FAST GAL - 6/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event lately.


                              STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #4 ARDEN'S ASSAULT on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
                              EXACTA WAGERS: 4 with [1,5]

                              TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                              Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
                              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip

                              SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:
                              None

                              Comment

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