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Thursday 9/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Sale hates Baltimore. In three starts against the Orioles this season, he's allowed 6, 5 and 7 earned runs. He went only 4, 5 and 3 innings. That's 18 earned runs in 12 innings. Final scores were 9-8, 4-5 (both h2h against Kremer) and 12-13. Six of Sale's past seven starts against Baltimore have produced at least eight runs. Kremer has a 6.40 ERA and 1.896 WHIP his last three. His past five starts have all produced at least nine runs. This number is low. Go with the Over.
We've played on Chicago on the runline option in each of the last two games, and once again we feel that the desperate visiting side offers great value here to once again be competitive. The Cubs won the opener outright, then lost yesterday's contest by a score of 7-6, delivering the goods on the runline option. The Braves need a win to lock down the No. 1 seed, while Chicago needs a win to keep pace for a spot in the playoffs. The starting pitching matchup favors the visitors though, with Marcus Stroman (10-8, 3.88 ERA) having a clear advantage in our eyes over counterpart AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.57.) Consider Chicago on the runline on Thursday night!
This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE-3.5 -103 for our Thursday Free play. Tulsa is coming off a big win at Northern Illinois to improve to 2-2 and it looks to build on that. The Golden Hurricane two losses have come against Washington and Oklahoma which are both undefeated and ranked and that has led to a schedule ranked No. 18 in the country. The offense has not been great because of that but Tulsa can turn that around here, especially in the running game. It is averaging 170.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc which is far from great but they finally square off against a defense with holes as Tempe is allowing 195.2 ypg on 4.9 ypc. In comparison, their last three games have come against teams allowing 3.6, 3.6 and 2.7 ypc. While the passing game has tossed 10 interceptions, Temple has picked off only one pass. The Owls are also 2-2 but their wins have come against Norfolk St. of the FCS and Akron, one of the worst teams in the FBS currently ranked at No. 148 overall. Temple was supposed to make strides in the passing game behind E.J. Warner, son of former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner, but he has struggled to find any rhythm as he has completed only 53.2 percent of his passes for 1,000 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tulsa passing defense has not been good but facing Washington and Oklahoma will make most teams look bad. Temple has played only one road game and it was bottled up at Rutgers, scoring just one touchdown and generating only 298 yards of offense. Play (106) Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Free Play: Western Kentucky -5.5 -110
MTS/Western Kentucky 7:30pm Thursday: Western Kentucky has won this matchup in consecutive years SU/ATS, and we'll look for the third to be a charm for the Hilltoppers Thursday night. MTS has taken on a tough schedule (Missouri/Alabama) but sloppy in the process. They've put the ball on the turf too many times and versatile QB Vattiato has been hit and sacked way too many times. Hilltoppers bring an aggressive and opportunistic defense to the field again. They were sensational in takeaways last season and they're on spot this season again. Offensively, QB Austin Reed following up a strong season last year with 9/1 TD/INT. MTS strong vs the run (#1 in conference) but bottom tier vs the pass. And Coach Helton likes to air it out. Helton a sweet 18-2 SU /16-3-1 ATS vs foes off SU/ATS loss, including 7-0 ATS in his last 7 home games. WKU the call.
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston State (8:00 PM EST)
Play On: Jacksonville State -6 1/2
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks travel to Sam Houston State to take on the Bearkats on Thursday night. Jacksonville State Head Coach Rich Rodriguez went 9-2 SU in his first season here last year and they returned 16 starters to this years team. Jacksonville State is 3-1 overall this year while Sam Houston State comes in with an 0-3 record on the season. Sam Houston State offense has been bad averaging only 42 yards per game rushing, 105.7 yards per game passing and only 147.7 total yards per game this year. Jacksonville State rushing attack is averaging 237.5 yards per game on the ground. Jacksonville State defense is allowing only 11.8 points per game this year. Sam Houston State is scoring only 3.3 points per game this season. I'm thinking Jacksonville State wins and covers this one and may even shutout this Sam Houston State team. We'll recommend a small play on Jacksonville State tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.
Since dropping the opener of this series on Tuesday afternoon we've seen the Dodgers respond with consecutive lopsided victories. I'm anticipating more of the same in Thursday's series finale at Coors Field. Ryan Yarbrough will get another spot start for the Dodgers as he auditions for a postseason role on an injury-depleted pitching staff. He pitched well last time out, allowing two earned runs over four innings in Washington. Note that current Rockies hitters have just 12 at-bats collectively against Yarbrough with only one hit. The Dodgers bullpen has really locked in lately, logging a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Rockies rag-tag bullpen, which has posted a 6.12 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the same stretch. Chris Flexen will get the start for Colorado. Current Dodgers hitters have rocked the journeyman right-hander, batting a collective 11-for-32 (.344) with six extra-base hits. That's without Mookie Betts having every faced him. Flexen hasn't pitched well at home this season, recording a 6.32 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 47 innings of work. That's not to mention the fact that he has logged a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last three outings overall. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs.
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