Sunday 10/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Panthers+10

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Matt Fargo

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS+4.5 for our Sunday Free Play. The Steelers head home following a pair of road games in a key divisional matchup. They were dominated last week at Houston and now they are coming into a rare situation going from a road favorite to a home underdog with the number going up since opening and crossing a key number. The concern for some is that quarterback Kenny Pickett left the game with a knee injury but it ended up being just a bone bruise and he should be good to go and this has been a great spot as head coach Mike Tomlin is 13-2 ATS coming off a loss of 20 points or more. Baltimore came through for us last week and it was easier than expected as quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch for Cleveland and the offense had no chance. The Ravens are now 3-1 and while they possess the better roster, they remain banged up on defense and along the offensive line. These teams know each other inside and out and what is typically a close and low scoring game, the home underdog over a field goal is the play. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (464) Pittsburgh Steelers

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Dolphins-12

No analysis provided.

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Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' 43 between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen consecutive meetings between these AFC South rivals stay 'under' the total - the longest such streak in this series dating back to 2011-12. I'm expecting more in the way of offensive fireworks this time around as the Colts have undoubtedly upgraded their offense with standout rookie QB Anthony Richardson and the Titans are getting reinforcements back on their offensive line this week after a confidence-building performance against the Bengals last Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 73-49 in Titans October matchups while the 'over' checks in a long-term 56-35 with the Colts coming off a home loss, as is the case here. Take the over.

[ConleyPicks]

ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NFL Annihilator.
Free Play: Texans+120

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Houston are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games. Atlanta are 1-4 in their last 5 games played in week 5.

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

Mike's Saints/Patriots NFL Free Pick

The New England Patriots are coming into the week at 1-3 SU and ATS, but they've played a really tough schedule.

The Pats defeated the Jets 15-10 in Week 3 in the only game they closed as a favorite, and here they'll face a New Orleans team that has scored a total of only 26 points through back-to-back losses.

Neither offense has been good, but at least the Pats can lean on a defense that is holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play (6th) and 297 yards per game (10th). Considering their opponents so far (Philly, Miami, NY Jets, and Dallas), that is actually quite impressive numbers.

The Saints rank only 25th in scoring offense and are 23rd in total yards, and while they should do better now with Alvin Kamara back from suspension (he returned last week and had 51 yards on 11 carries), I don't think it will be enough against a well-coached Patriots team.

2* free pick on the New England Patriots-115

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 10-8-23

Houston @ Atlanta (1:00 PM EST)
Play On: Atlanta -125

The Houston Texans travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Both teams come in with identical 2-2 overall records on the season. Atlanta is 2-0 SU at home this year where they are scoring 24.5 points per game. Houston is 1-8 ATS last 9 road games against a non-division opponent with a better than .000 record. Houston is 2-11 ATS last 13 games as non-conference dogs of 13 points or less. Houston is 0-8 ATS last 8 games after back to back SU wins. Atlanta is 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs Houston last 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta on Sunday! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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Jeff Alexander

1* NFL - Saints/Patriots FREE Pick on Patriots -1

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Falcons-125

I'm selling high on the Texans, who are coming off back-to-back blowout victories against the Steelers and Jaguars. No doubt the Texans are improved. DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud are off to promising starts.

But I don't see them beating an improved Atlanta team on the road. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Houston won three in a row.

The Texans have been able to escape the reality of dealing with a depleted offensive line. Perhaps the backups aren't that much worse than the starters with the exception of star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who has missed the past three games with a knee injury. It's going to catch up to the Texans and I expect that to occur here in Houston's first dome game of the season where the loud crowd noise will be especially bothersome.

The Falcons greatly upgrade their defensive line and secondary, which consists of Jeff Okudah, A.J. Terrell, safeties Jessie Bates and Richie Grant. That's a solid defensive backfield.

I'm not a Desmond Ridder fan by any means. However, he's 4-0 as a starter in home games, accounting for six touchdowns. Ridder can rely on dynamic rookie Bijan Robinson, who already has emerged as a top-three all-purpose running back. Robinson is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and is a receiving threat. The Texans rank 19th in run defense.

Back for the Falcons is Cordarrelle Patterson, a gadget player on offense and one of the premier kick returning threats in the NFL.

The Falcons won't lack motivation returning home after consecutive losses, while the Texans are sitting fat and happy.

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are desperate for a win. We are getting max value on the Steelers after they lost by 24 at upstart Houston last week, while Baltimore won by 25 at Cleveland against a backup quarterback. No team is as bad or good as they looked last week. This is arguably the best rivalry in the NFL and just has a way of going down to the wire, which is why there's always value with the underdog. The underdog is 28-12-3 ATS in the last 43 meetings in this series. In the regular season, when the line is +3 or more, the underdog is 21-3-3 ATS since 2005. The underdog has covered 11 consecutive games in this series and is 15-1-1 ATS since 2015. This is the type of spot Mike Tomlin gets max effort from his team and at the very least a cover if not an outright win. Give me the Steelers.

[ConleyPicks]

Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Giants+13 -109

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Scott Rickenbach

Rotation #206793: Romania Liga 1 Sunday Free Pick CFR Cluj -175 @ Dinamo Bucuresti @ 2:30 ET - This money line is a little too pricey for me to go with a premium pick on it but you are reading about it here for that very reason and I absolutely feel it is worth a look here. CFR Cluj has been one of the best clubs in the league again this season while Dinamo Bucuresti is newly promoted and struggling at the top level this season. The fact CFR Cluj is on the road here is keeping this line lower and helps to make the money line manageable for this one. Lay it! Free Pick CFR Cluj -175

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Rams+4.5 -112

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Los Angeles Rams +4

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are expected to get Cooper Kupp back from injury this week. They already had a very good offense even without Kupp, and now should have one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward with him. RB Kyren Williams and WR Puka Nacua have been revelations, and Matthew Stafford is back to his old self. I think the Rams can match the Eagles score for score. The spot is a bad one for the Eagles. They were on a short week last week coming off a Monday Night Football game, then they needed OT to dispatch of the Washington Commanders despite being 9-point home favorites. It was their 3rd win by 6 points or less this year as they are fortunate to be 4-0. They lost both coordinators in the offseason and have a much tougher schedule this year than they had last year, though their schedule has been pretty easy thus far compared to Los Angeles. The Rams also needed OT last week, but they have positive momentum with 467 total yards on the Colts and still winning after blowing a 23-0 lead. They also beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road and that win looks better and better by the week. They gave the 49ers their toughest challenge to date in a 30-23 defeat, and the 49ers may be the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have a bunch of injuries on defense and a vulnerable secondary that allowed 306 passing yards to New England, 346 to Minnesota and 258 to Washington. The Rams will always be within striking distance in this game because of that weak Philadelphia secondary. Take Los Angeles.

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Bengals-3 -115

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*