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Sunday 10/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Loaded Sunday Card has the AFC North TOTAL of the year Early and a HUGE TIER 1 Side late, there are a pair of 5* plays and SNF. We also have a pair of Perfect game 2 Divisional series MLB Plays and game 1 WNBA Finals. NFL Comp play below
The NFL Comp play is on The Bengals-3 at 4:05 eastern. Expecting a nice bounce back from the Bengals here as Burrow is a go and his mobility is improving, if he gets out of the pocket it will be a long day for Arizona. The Bengals fit an 80% system that is long term for short road favorites off a road loss scoring 14 or less vs a team off a road dog loss like the Cards. This is a must win game for Cincy and they should be poised and have extreme equanimity here today. On Sunday a huge card is up after a Saturday where top plays swept at 3-0. Now the AFC North Total of the Year is up along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Side 2 more top plaYs including SNF and a pair of perfect MLB PLayoff systems. Jump on now as Rob Closes out the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Cincy. Rob V-
Texas has been on a role here in the playoffs, but we're finally expecting a letdown here. Baltimore has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 0.00 ERA postseason) has been on fire, but we're expecting a letdown here finally vs. the revenge-minded home side, who turns to Grayson Rodriguez (7-4, 4.35 regular-season.) We feel, especially at this price, that Baltimore is the correct call here at home in Game 2!
The Denver Broncos are battling with the Chicago Bears for worst defense in the NFL honors. The Broncos are allowing a staggering 37.5 points per game, 462 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season. Of course, the 70 points they gave up against Miami have pushed those numbers up, but a couple other performances were just as alarming.
The Commanders put up 35 points and 388 total yards on the Broncos in Week 2. And last week was most alarming, allowing 28 points and 471 total yards to what was a previously dead Chicago Bears offense. Justin Fields had by far his best game of the season against this Denver defense, which is very telling.
Zach Wilson gets a lot of grief, but it's also a fact that he has played the toughest schedule of opposing defenses of any quarterback in the NFL to this point. He has had to face Buffalo, Dallas, New England and Kansas City thus far. This will feel like a walk in the park for him in comparison, and the Jets are primed for their best offensive output of the season a week after they got some things going against the Chiefs.
The offense is not the problem for the Broncos this season unlike last. Denver is scoring 25.0 points per game this season while averaging 6.2 yards per play. The Jets have a very good defense, but I think the Broncos can get close to their season average in this one. I also can see Denver head coach Sean Payton and New York offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett pulling out all the gadgets this week to try and one-up each other after their offseason spat.
The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds in Denver Sunday afternoon. Payton is 12-3 OVER in home games after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach. Payton is 10-1 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 42 or fewer penalty yards per game as a head coach. It's not surprising to see Denver become an OVER team with Payton running the show, just as the Saints were with him prior. The market hasn't caught up to it yet. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
This line has been bet down like crazy, and for good reason. It seems pretty obvious that the defending champs are in a let down spot this week. They barely beat the Jets in a Primetime game that saw more attention payed to Taylor Swift than the game itself. The Vikings need this game to get back on track. While they have lost three of their first four games, all those losses came by one score. Kirk Cousins ranks near the top of the NFL in passing, and he's thrown for more yards, more TDs and has a higher completion percentage than Patrick Mahomes. The Vikings should have a puncher's chance here.
I'll take my chances with the Chiefs as a -4.5 road favorite against the Vikings. Kansas City failed to cover in last week's 23-20 win over the Jets as a 9.5-point favorite, but that's only because Mahomes slid on the 1-yard line instead of scoring so they could run out the clock. KC was also up 17-0 in that game. The offense has been slow going early on, but that's to be expected with all the young faces at wide receiver. It will get better and better and should be in for a big day against this Minnesota secondary that gave up 445 passing yards to Justin Herbert. What really has Chiefs fans excited is that the defense looks to be the best it's been in a long time. It's strength is against the pass and that's really all Minnesota has threatened with. Vikings are averaging just 84 ypg on the ground. KC should win this one by at least a touchdown. Give me the Chiefs -4.5!
#469 ASA FREE PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re taking the better team getting points here. Both teams are 1-3 but the Jets have played the much tougher schedule already facing the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots and Chiefs. The Broncos have faced the Raiders, Commanders, Bears, and Dolphins and the first 3 listed have just 4 wins between them. Despite that NY has a better YPP margin, PPG margin, and the much better defense. The Jets are allowing just 5.1 YPP on the season while Denver is giving up a league worst 7.0 YPP. New York’s defensive line is among the best in the NFL ranking in the top 10 in pressure percentage and they’ll be facing a Denver offensive line that is in the bottom 12 in sack percentage allowed. The Jets offense should get a reprieve here as they are facing the worst defense in the NFL DVOA after facing 4 top 14 DVOA defense thus far including #1 (Buffalo) and #2 (Dallas). The offense actually looked much better last week vs a solid KC stop unit putting up 5.9 YPP and almost pulled the upset losing 23-20. QB Wilson had his best game of the season completing 72% of his passes for 245 yards and 2 TD’s. His confidence should be high again on Sunday facing a Denver defense that is allowing opposing QB’s to complete a ridiculous 78% of their passes (last in the NFL) for 9.0 yards per attempt (last in the NFL). Last week this Denver defense allowed Chicago QB Fields to complete 80% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and 4 TD’s. The Broncos trailed by 21 late in the 3rd and rallied for a late 3 point win in that game. Today they play a much tougher defense and we don’t see any big comebacks if they struggle again. Dating back the middle of the 2021 season, the Broncos have been favored 13 times and their ATS record in those games is 1-11-1. Take the points with the NYJ.
In Week 5 of the NFL, a nice betting matchup on Sunday between the Jets (1-3, 2-2 ATS) and the Broncos (1-3, 0-3-1 ATS). The game will start at 4:25 ET and will be on CBS. It will take place at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado.
Now, let's talk about the betting odds for this game, the ATS betting lines have New York +2 and Denver -2. The moneyline odds are New York +111 and Denver -135. The total (O/U) is set at 43.5.
My big concern for this game is always Russell Wilson, whom I can't stand. An even bigger concern though is the Broncos' poor defense, and Russell Wilson can't save them, even though he's had a tough season himself.
Just to highlight, the Denver Defense surrendered 335 yards to Fields, 309 yards to Tua, and 299 yards to Howell in recent weeks. What's more, they allow a league-worst 9 yards per pass, making it hard for them to stop opponents.
Trusting a team that's willing to trade its best players doesn't seem wise either; Randy Gregory was already traded, and Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton could follow suit. Betting on Wilson and the Broncos in this situation doesn't seem like a profitable choice.
Some trends to note, Jets are 2-2 ATS as dogs this year, and believe it or not, the Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in October. The Broncos are 3-7 SU in their L10, and are 4-14 SU in their last 18, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Sunday.
In the 2023 season, both teams aimed to do better, and now they face off to try and improve their luck. We're on the Jets on Sunday to keep this one within the number. Enjoy this free winner!
Sunday’s FREE WINNER: San Francisco 49ers-3.5 -105
Game 474.
5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.
My friends, this contest will most likely be the most watched contest thus far this NFL season. There's a lot of drama surrounding this game. This is a rematch, if you recall, of last year's Divisional playoffs when San Francisco took down Dallas at home, 19-12. As a matter of fact, the 49ers have knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. But it seems this matchup is a little more intense, than even a playoffs matchup. Dallas comes into the Sunday night game 3-1, both straight up and against the spread, while San Francisco is 4-0 SU, going 3-1 ATS. Speaking of ATS trends, the Cowboys fail to get bettors paid when they take it on the road, going just 3-6-1 ATS their last 10 as a visitor. Meanwhile, the 49ers are a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine games played at home. There's also a lot of talk about how Dallas struggles on natural grass. Can you guess what the field is at Levi stadium? That's right folks…natural grass. The not-so-flashy quarterback, Brock Purdy, may not have as many games under his belt as Dak Prescott. But I think very few out there would argue that he at this stage in the game he a guy they would draft ahead Prescott. Dallas can certainly run the ball with the best of them, and they have a couple of solid receivers at their disposal. But offensively, I just don't see them keeping pace on the scoreboard with the arsenal, which is the San Francisco “O”. They both have very good defenses. However, I do like the way the 49ers run defense, which by the way ranks third in the league, matches up against the seventh ranked rushing offense of the Cowboys. I'm not looking to show any disrespect to Dallas. They certainly deserve all the accolades in the world. I just don't see them on the road in San Francisco having the same success that they've had up to this point. Take the 49ers. Thank you.
Public teams (+60% of bets) in NFL Week 5 at @BetMGM
84% of bets on Dolphins -12.5
79% on Chiefs -3.5
78% on Lions -8.5
77% on Bills -4.5
74% on Packers +2.5
73% on 49ers -3.5
61% on Jets +2.5
60% on Bengals -3
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