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Monday 10/9/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jack's Free Pick Monday: Philadelphia Phillies +142
This line should be closer to even money and there's value on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight as a result. Atlanta is getting a little to much credit for this 'must-win' situation, so I'll gladly side with Zack Wheeler and the Phillies over Max Fried and the Braves in Game 2.
Wheeler is 14-6 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 33 starts this season. He has done his best work on the road, going 8-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 17 starts away from home. Wheeler is 12-8 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 28 career starts against Atlanta. He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven road starts at Atlanta. He allowed one earned run in 14 innings in two starts at Atlanta this season.
Fried is 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 14 starts this season despite battling through injury. He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in five home starts. Fried is 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 14 career starts against Philadelphia. He allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 9 base runners in 3 1/3 innings in his last home start against the Phillies.
Philadelphia is 17-6 (+12.9 Units) in October games over the last two seasons. Bet the Phillies in Game 2 Monday.
Philadelphia took a 1-0 series lead with a 3-0 win in Game 1. Everyone is going to expect the Braves to bounce back with a win in Game 2, but I'm not so sure. The playoffs are all about getting hot at the right time and this Phillies team has shown the ability to get hot and stay hot in the playoffs. They cruised past the Marlins in the Wild Card round. They have allowed just 2 ER in 3 games this postseason. Zack Wheeler will be on the mound. He's pitched great down the stretch and has a strong history against this Braves team. Atlanta's Max Fried was not nearly as sharp at home (2.55 ERA and 1.133 WHIP overall, 3.86 ERA and 1.417 WHIP at home). Fried is also just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 14 career starts vs Philadelphia. Give me the Phillies +142!
Probable Pitchers: PHI - Z. Wheeler-R vs ATL - M. Fried-L
The Braves (104-59) will play against the Phillies (93-72) in the NLDS's Game 2 Monday at 6:07 PM ET, broadcast live on TBS from Truist Park. After losing the first game, the Braves need to right the ship The Braves are expected to win with -157 ML odds, while the Phillies, the underdogs, have +134 odds. Atlanta is favored with a -1.5 run line. The total runs for the game is set at 8.
The starting pitchers are Max Fried (8-1, 2.56 ERA) for the Braves and Zack Wheeler (13-6 3.49 ERA, 1-0 in playoffs 1.35 ERA, 8 k's) for the Phillies. Wheeler gave up 1 run from 5 hits in 6.2 innings for a 4-1 win against the Marlins in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday. He got 8 strikeouts. Fried's last game against the Phillies was on Sept. 12. He allowed only 1 run from 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 in 5 innings.
The Phillies RL is a valuable play.
The public is pounding the Braves right now as they are all backing what was the best team this season. Nobody is expecting them to go down 2-0, but the Phillies may have something to say about that.
Philadelphia is doing just about everything right so far this postseason. They come in a perfect 3-0 already and jumped the Braves in Game 1 thanks to some timely hitting. It has been contributions from just about everyone in the lineup, which includes Bryce Harper. He has been a spark all season and this postseason he’s hitting homers and getting on base. He’s caused havoc for opposing pitchers so far.
After cashing in Game 1, they get Zack Wheeler here in Game 2. He’s already thrown a gem against Miami and has stepped up all season long for this Phili side. Look for him to set the tone and get some support early in this one.
Some trends to note, Phili are 4-1 SU in their L5 games, and are 5-2 SU in their L7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta. Atlanta are 1-6 SU in their L7 games played in October.
Wheeler has played in this "big type of game" before. The stage won't be new to him. He gave up 3 runs in 6 innings during Game 2 of the NLDS at Truist Park last year.
Back the Phils on the RL tonight for our free play!
After three straight victories, why not a fourth for the surging Phillies?! While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, the extra 1.5 runs at this price is a more attractive investment option our opinion. Zach Wheeler gets the nod for the visitors, with Max Fried countering for the home side. They're very evenly matched. Game 1 was a tight, lower-scoring battle, and while tonight's contest could see a few more runs plated, everything once again appears to be extremely evenly matched. Consider Philadelphia on the runline option!
Monday card has the NFL Non Conf. Game of the Month with a 100% Monday night Specific system and the MLB Divisional round play of the year headlining in playoff action. MLB Comp total below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Over 8 -105 runs in the Philadelphia at Atlanta game at 6:10 eastern. We have a nice totals system here that has cashed to the over 15 straight times. The system itself averages 10 runs per game and pertains to road dogs like the Phils that are off a road dog win in game 4 or less of a series and scored 3 or less runs vs an opponent that scored 1 or no runs last out. The Bats tend to wake up in these games. The pitching is solid here with Fried and Wheeler but these teams have seen these guys regularly in division play. The Phils have gone over their team total in 14 of 20 on the road and the Braves have gone over their posted team total in 35 of 54 at home. Look for this game to get over the total tonight. On Monday the Divisional series game of the year goes in evening action along with the Non Conference Game of the Month in the NFL and our early season NHL is up along with Tuesday College Football. Jump on now and start the week fast. For the MLB Comp play. Play Over 8 runs Phils vs Braves. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
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