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Wednesday 10/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Probable Pitchers: HOU - C. Javier-R vs TEX - M. Scherzer-R
Tonight, the Texas Rangers face the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the 2023 ALCS at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. First pitch is at 8:03 p.m. ET, and you can watch it on Fox Sports 1. Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA) takes the mound for the Rangers, while Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) starts for the Astros.
Betting odds for ALCS Game 3 have Texas favored at -131 on the money line, while Houston sits at +110. The run line has Texas at -1.5 (+147), and the Over/Under (O/U) total is set at 9.
Tonight, we’re on the OVER here on the road.
Javier comes into this matchup looking just OK. The righty had some trouble finding the strike zone during Game 3 of the ALDS versus the Twins. He handed out 5 walks but managed to throw 5 innings without giving up any runs. He only allowed 1 hit and struck out 9 batters. This season wasn't his best; he had a career-worst 4.56 ERA in 31 starts and hasn't won since August 21. In his last 11 starts, he's posted a 5.00 ERA.
On the other side, the Rangers are sending Scherzer to the mound, but there's uncertainty about how he'll perform. He's on a 60-70 pitch limit after a five-week break from starting. His regular season ended with a 3.77 ERA in 152 innings. In his second-to-last outing against the Astros before the injury, he gave up 7 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks over 3 innings and took the loss.
In their last 4 regular season games we saw these clubs combine to put up 18, 19, 15, and 15 runs per game. The Rangers are averaging 5.5 RPG in the playoffs. The Astros on the other hand are averaging 4.3 RPG.
I know I know this isn't the regular season anymore, but you know me I love following trends, and the trends don't lie.
Some trends to note, the total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games, and their total has gone over in 5 of their last 7 games against an opponent in the AL. On the other side the total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas' last 6 games against the Stros.
Sean Murphy
Wednesday CFB Free play. My selection is on UTEP plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.
New Mexico State is coming off consecutive ATS wins as favorites so we'll fade the Aggies here as I simply don't believe they're a team built for extended success in a favored role. Only Kentucky averages fewer offensive plays per game than New Mexico State. Yes, the Aggies have been ultra-efficient when they've had the football, averaging 7.7 yards per play but you can only accomplish so much when you play so slow. They're averaging just north of 20 points per game on the road this season. UTEP lost its way in the second half of September but has shown signs of getting back on track, stamping out the run in its last two contests while also rediscovering its own ground attack. While things appear bleak at 2-5 on the season, the Miners get this game at home before a road tilt against winless Sam Houston State next week so they do have an opportunity to get rolling a little bit. Note that UTEP has taken each of the last two meetings in this series over the last two years, outscoring New Mexico State 50-16 along the way. Take UTEP.
7* NCAAF New Mexico St/UTEP Free Pick
PLAY ON UTEP MINERS +3.5
Give me UTEP as a 3.5-point home dog against New Mexico State. The Aggies are 4-3 and have gone an impressive 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games. I just think it has NMST way overpriced in this spot. The Aggies have played one of the softest schedules in the country to this point. The only respectable team they have played is Liberty and they were annihilated 33-17, getting outgained 526-339. It will be the first time they are road favorites this season, as they were dogs at Liberty, New Mexico and Hawaii. UTEP is a very disappointing 2-5. A lot of people had this team picked near the top of the C-USA standings. What I like here is the Miners are coming off a 27-14 road win at FIU as a 3.5-point dog. 4th stringer Cade McConnell went 11 of 17 for 262 yards (15.4 avg!) with a 2-0 TD-INT ratio. He should be in line for another strong showing against a suspect Aggies secondary. UTEP is giving up 253 passing yards/game, which is really concerning when you factor in who they have played. I like the Miners to win the game. Give me +3.5!
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