Thursday 10/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359622

    Thursday 10/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359622

    #2
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Presque Isle Downs - Race #3
    #3 Midnight in Prague Not seeing much other pace in here on paper, and that might leave her in a really good spot while cutting back from a couple route tries so far this year. Could see her liking this local trip.
    #4 Geared Up Dropper had a lot of chances with special weight company before this, and the overall form makes her tough if she's able to move forward even a little bit with the easier bunch. Wouldn't be any shock if she drilled these.
    #1 Ria Formosa Reliable finisher wouldn't surprise, but she also seems more logical to me as a finisher who will come to life too late in here. Capable, but I'm not that excited.
    Race Summary Lots of form in here that makes some sense but also fails to inspire, and I'm hoping the cutback pace of Midnight in Prague will translate well at this trip while facing a bunch with mostly finishing running lines.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #5
    #6 Worlds on High Think he's going to hit hard in here while getting a great trip behind the dangerous pace drawn a couple stalls inside, as his reliable form with better this meet makes him tough if he can hang on to it while dropping near the end of the season.
    #3 Conrado He has sharp speed and can really control a race up top, but he's rising in price today after getting run down in two of his last three, and I'm not sure the guy on top is going to provide him with any late relief today.
    #4 McSteamy Not really sure what to do with his overall form, but he's probably a decent fit at the local level after some tries here with allowance company earlier this year and back in 2021 when he did his previous racing.
    Race Summary Worlds on High has a lot going his way on paper here, as he's tactical enough to have Conrado measured the entire way from off the splits.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #8
    #2 He's Fancy Free Taking a swing in the finale with this riser bringing fairly modest Penn form, but he has a little bit of clunk-along ability to get past horses late and has shown a touch of positional pace in some of his past races. Worth a look.
    #10 Instinctual Kind of relying on him to get somewhere closer to the 2022 form if he's going to land this, and I'm not totally sure the price is going to reflect that risk. Capable with a pace edge on a lot of these -- but he's not for me.
    #7 Fast Chad Not much to be excited about on recent form, but he has been doing his work against better groups in Kentucky and California, and he presumably has some room to turn things around while trying the local footing and company for the first time.
    Race Summary He's Fancy Free should be a midrange price while trying special weight company for the first time, and he has a little versatility in his running style that might serve him well. Let's see if a few months away and the new scenery will shake him up.
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 359622

      #3
      Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


      Laurel Park - Race #3
      #12 BODE’S HERITAGE (9-2 Proven turf route form against better, must avoid wide trip.
      #11 MARY JANE CHROME (5-2) Second as the favorite in 4 of her last 7 starts.
      #2 GLOSSAMER (10-1) Often close, often second, changes riders.
      Race Summary BODE’S HERITAGE has a win, two seconds and an 87 Beyer speed figure in stakes company in her last four turf route races. She ran second to Royal Dame (10/4-2-3, $95k), who was in the midst of a three-race winning streak, at Tampa in the spring. Early position will be the key to cashing a win and place bet.
      Laurel Park - Race #4
      #2 MOSE PERFECT (9-2) Hit best stride at Laurel in winter routes, works indicate readiness.
      #5 IT’S VIPER (2-1) Slowed by the pace in comeback, won’t be a problem today.
      #6 UNCLE IRISH (3-1) Good first gear, back-pedaled off layoff, can top $100k in one-mile earnings.
      Race Summary MOSE PERFECT’s three-race winning streak ended with a dull effort when last seen in February. But he is working forwardly for his return, projects an ideal trip in a speed-laden field and offers enough value for a win and place bet.
      Laurel Park - Race #6
      #9 BONDIVA (4-1) Cruised to the front on turn, couldn’t contain the fave, goes an extra half furlong.
      #2 GOLDEN CHARM (10-1) Finished second in both main-track sprints won by late runners.
      #3 CONCEPTUALIZE (5-2) Wide chasing fast pace in debut, working bullets for return in new barn.
      Race Summary BONDIVA ranged up in-hand while 4-wide on the turn to take the lead, widened a bit when asked for run at the top of the stretch and got caught by the troubled favorite. She gets Lasix for the first time and could upstage a pair of runner-up finishes. Bet to win and place
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 359622

        #4
        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont at the Big A

        PURCHASE
        Belmont at the Big A - Race 5
        Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Grand Slam ($1) (5-8), Late Pick 5 (.50) (5-9)
        Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 CR: 79 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 2:44P
        FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).
        Contenders
        Race Analysis
        P#
        Horse
        Morn
        Line
        Accept
        Odds

        Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KHADULLAH is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KHADULLAH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
        2
        KHADULLAH
        7/2
        4/5

        P#
        Horse (In Running Style Order)
        Post
        Morn
        Line
        Running Style
        Good
        Class
        Good
        Speed
        Early Figure
        Finish Figure
        Platinum
        Figure
        2
        KHADULLAH
        2
        7/2
        Front-runner
        83
        70
        80.5
        62.3
        60.3
        1
        A KNIGHT'S COURAGE
        1
        9/2
        Alternator/Stalker
        0
        0
        67.8
        58.6
        54.6
        4
        ONE WITHEVERYTHING
        4
        4/1
        Alternator/Stalker
        0
        0
        43.6
        49.3
        42.8
        6
        RUNNING LUCKY
        6
        20/1
        Alternator/Stalker
        0
        0
        36.5
        23.5
        13.5
        5
        SOLO IN PARIS
        5
        20/1
        Alternator/Trailer
        0
        0
        11.4
        29.4
        19.9
        3
        SMILE TAKES CHARGE
        3
        6/1
        Alternator/Non-contender
        0
        0
        5.7
        20.9
        10.9
        Unknown Running Style: KING KHALI (12/1) [Jockey: Davis Katie - Trainer: Englehart Chris J], STAR SEQUENCE (6/1) [Jockey: Luzzi Lane J - Trainer: Serpe Philip M], MORQ (8/1) [Jockey: Davis Dylan - Trainer: Englehart Chris J], SEBA M (10/1) [Jockey: M
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 359622

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE


          Camarero - Race 1
          Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
          Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 32 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 2:45P
          FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. 2# A CLASF.$8,000 ALLOWED 2 LBS. 4# A CLASF. INFERIOR Y DBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
          Contenders
          Race Analysis
          P#
          Horse
          Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds

          Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ROGATIVE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ROGATIVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse. SAQUEO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GIANT GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
          2
          ROGATIVE
          3/1
          3/1
          5
          SAQUEO
          2/1
          7/2
          3
          GIANT GOLD
          10/1
          8/1

          P#
          Horse (In Running Style Order)
          Post
          Morn
          Line
          Running Style
          Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure
          Finish Figure
          Platinum
          Figure
          2
          ROGATIVE
          2
          3/1
          Front-runner
          33
          21
          42.7
          6.6
          1.6
          5
          SAQUEO
          5
          2/1
          Stalker
          23
          27
          27.4
          25.9
          18.9
          3
          GIANT GOLD
          3
          10/1
          Alternator/Trailer
          35
          10
          36.2
          13.8
          8.3
          4
          BROTHER'S FOR LIFE
          4
          5/1
          Alternator/Non-contender
          36
          32
          45.2
          13.0
          7.0
          1
          SIR ROBERT
          1
          10/1
          Alternator/Non-contender
          41
          28
          40.8
          11.8
          5.8
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 359622

            #6
            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

            PURCHASE
            Always check program numbers.
            Odds shown are morning line odds.




            Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13200 Class Rating: 64

            FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 19, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
            # 2 CASTLE OF CAYLEE 2/1
            # 3 URKILLINGMEBETH 3/1
            # 4 MISS WILD 6/1
            CASTLE OF CAYLEE has a decent shot to take this race. She has competitive class ratings, averaging 72, and has to be given a shot in this race. Has performed admirably lately in route races, posting a nifty 54 avg speed rating. URKILLINGMEBETH - She has been running strongly recently while recording sharp speed figures. Recently Peltroche has been scorching which may give the edge to this mare. MISS WILD - Has earned formidable Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Looks very good versus this field and will probably be one of the early speedsters.
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 359622

              #7
              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

              PURCHASE
              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.




              Race 7 - Allowance - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 85

              QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 8 EC TEMP GL 5/2
              # 4 HOCK TREE SPECIAL 4/1
              # 6 LIL COOL JEWELS 7/2
              I favor EC TEMP GL here. Should compete admirably in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. Overall the speed figs of this equine look competitive in this race. Is tough not to examine given the company run in lately. HOCK TREE SPECIAL - He has to be carefully examined given the solid speed figures. Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. LIL COOL JEWELS - Muniz has this filly running well and is a competitive choice based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figures garnered in short races recently. She looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 359622

                #8
                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                PURCHASE


                Keeneland - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 100

                Rating:

                #2 MAILMAN MONEY (ML=8/1)
                #6 DERBY DATE (ML=9/2)
                #4 SHOOTERS SHOOT (ML=5/2)
                #3 THE QUEENS JULES (ML=5/1)


                MAILMAN MONEY - Jock hops back on after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last time out. That's always a helpful angle. He has the topmost earnings per race. Check out this horse. DERBY DATE - If the speedballs get weary, this gelding will kick into high gear. This gelding is probably the best closer in the field. A racer coming back this soon after a strong contest is a good sign. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed fig, 107, is tops in this bunch. SHOOTERS SHOOT - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a sharp race last time out within the last month or so. THE QUEENS JULES - I like a racer that manages to hit the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. The return on investment when Geroux and Van Berg hook up is fantastic. Moves back to a trip at which he ran a speed fig good enough to make him a contender today. Geroux is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past.

                Vulnerable Contenders: #5 UPSTRIKER (ML=7/2),

                UPSTRIKER - This horse ran a somewhat easily forgotten fig last out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's event running that figure.



                STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #2 MAILMAN MONEY to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds
                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,6]

                TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,3,4,6,8] with [2,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 359622

                  #9
                  Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                  PURCHASE


                  Laurel - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 80

                  Rating:

                  #10 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (ML=6/1)
                  #6 AMUNET (ML=7/2)
                  #2 VANILLA BEAN (ML=9/2)


                  LAKESIDE GETAWAY - In this race here, this race horse has earned the highest speed fig at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. The most recent speed fig of 82 is the top last race speed rating in the field. AMUNET - This fine animal should be rumbling in the stretch. VANILLA BEAN - This jock and trainer have a high winning percent together. Dropping down in class figure points from her Sep 6th race at Penn National. Based on that data, I will give this one the edge. This filly should improve after adding Lasix in the last race and getting it again today.

                  Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA (ML=4/1), #8 DETERMINED LILLY (ML=5/1), #3 CALL ME VIVIAN (ML=6/1),

                  PASTA SALAD RHONDA - Hard to wager on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the chance. DETERMINED LILLY - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of races around the track. CALL ME VIVIAN - When looking at today's class figure, she will have to record a much better speed figure than in the last race to battle in this turf route.

                  GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - VANILLA BEAN - I always peruse the equine that is uppermost in earnings per start. If she meets my criteria I make a play.




                  STRAIGHT WAGERS: #10 LAKESIDE GETAWAY is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better
                  EXACTA WAGERS: 10 with [2,6]

                  TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                  Box [2,6,10] Total Cost: $6
                  SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [2,6,10] with [2,6,10] with [2,4,6,7,10] with [2,4,6,7,10] Total Cost: $36
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                  Comment

                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 16966

                    #10
                    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont at the Big A

                    Belmont at the Big A - Race 5
                    Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Grand Slam ($1) (5-8), Late Pick 5 (.50) (5-9)
                    Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 CR: 79 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 2:44P
                    FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).
                    Contenders
                    Race Analysis
                    P#
                    Horse
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Accept
                    Odds

                    Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KHADULLAH is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KHADULLAH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
                    2
                    KHADULLAH
                    7/2
                    4/5

                    P#
                    Horse (In Running Style Order)
                    Post
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Running Style
                    Good
                    Class
                    Good
                    Speed
                    Early Figure
                    Finish Figure
                    Platinum
                    Figure
                    2
                    KHADULLAH
                    2
                    7/2
                    Front-runner
                    83
                    70
                    80.5
                    62.3
                    60.3
                    1
                    A KNIGHT'S COURAGE
                    1
                    9/2
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    0
                    0
                    67.8
                    58.6
                    54.6
                    4
                    ONE WITHEVERYTHING
                    4
                    4/1
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    0
                    0
                    43.6
                    49.3
                    42.8
                    6
                    RUNNING LUCKY
                    6
                    20/1
                    Alternator/Stalker
                    0
                    0
                    36.5
                    23.5
                    13.5
                    5
                    SOLO IN PARIS
                    5
                    20/1
                    Alternator/Trailer
                    0
                    0
                    11.4
                    29.4
                    19.9
                    3
                    SMILE TAKES CHARGE
                    3
                    6/1
                    Alternator/Non-contender
                    0
                    0
                    5.7
                    20.9
                    10.9
                    Unknown Running Style: KING KHALI (12/1) [Jockey: Davis Katie - Trainer: Englehart Chris J], STAR SEQUENCE (6/1) [Jockey: Luzzi Lane J - Trainer: Serpe Philip M], MORQ (8/1) [Jockey: Davis Dylan - Trainer: Englehart Chris J], SEBA M (10/1) [Jockey: M

                    Comment

                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 16966

                      #11
                      Handicapped by The Walker Group at Keeneland

                      Always check program numbers.
                      Odds shown are morning line odds.




                      Race 8 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $69000 Class Rating: 95

                      FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000.

                      RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                      # 3 DANCE SOME MO 8/1
                      # 4 JR'S GIFT 3/1
                      # 1 PRINCELY 4/1
                      My choice in this contest is DANCE SOME MO and could score at a price in here. Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this field. Rosin has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group of horses with entries running at this distance and surface. Quinonez ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early in here. JR'S GIFT - Must be given a shot based on the very good speed fig put up in the last race. Looks to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. PRINCELY - Had one of the best Speed Figures of this group of horses in his last competition.

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 16966

                        #12
                        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

                        Presque Isle Downs - Race 6
                        $2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8)
                        Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up CR: 84 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 5:15P
                        (PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).
                        Contenders
                        Race Analysis
                        P#
                        Horse
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Accept
                        Odds

                        Race Type: Lone Stalker. WAPITI WAY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WAPITI WAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MILITARY DRILL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GUACO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIFE MISSION: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. QUARTERMASTER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
                        5
                        WAPITI WAY
                        8/1
                        6/1
                        3
                        MILITARY DRILL
                        7/2
                        6/1
                        4
                        GUACO
                        5/2
                        7/1
                        6
                        LIFE MISSION
                        3/1
                        8/1
                        1
                        QUARTERMASTER
                        9/2
                        8/1

                        P#
                        Horse (In Running Style Order)
                        Post
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Running Style
                        Good
                        Class
                        Good
                        Speed
                        Early Figure
                        Finish Figure
                        Platinum
                        Figure
                        2
                        SAMURAI LEGACY
                        2
                        6/1
                        Front-runner
                        81
                        75
                        96.0
                        74.6
                        65.1
                        7
                        LITTLE BIG
                        7
                        10/1
                        Front-runner
                        72
                        72
                        85.4
                        69.0
                        56.5
                        6
                        LIFE MISSION
                        6
                        3/1
                        Front-runner
                        85
                        80
                        80.4
                        68.2
                        61.7
                        5
                        WAPITI WAY
                        5
                        8/1
                        Alternator/Stalker
                        83
                        84
                        71.2
                        79.6
                        71.1
                        3
                        MILITARY DRILL
                        3
                        7/2
                        Trailer
                        83
                        83
                        67.2
                        80.6
                        76.1
                        4
                        GUACO
                        4
                        5/2
                        Trailer
                        84
                        80
                        63.0
                        79.6
                        74.1
                        1
                        QUARTERMASTER
                        1
                        9/2
                        Trailer
                        79
                        74
                        62.4
                        72.6
                        64.6

                        Comment

                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 16966

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                          Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 62

                          Rating:

                          #6 ELEANORS JACK (ML=6/1)
                          #1 JEFFERSON SECURITY (ML=7/2)
                          #5 CHARITABLE WINDSOR (ML=5/2)


                          ELEANORS JACK - Look for this gelding to run much better today. Last event at Charles Town finishing sixth on an off track is no indication of his true ability. Was in an Allowance race at Charles Town in the last race. That race had an Equibase class figure of 71 and he is moving down right here. A certain win candidate. He has the uppermost (EPS) earnings per start. Take a long look at this horse. JEFFERSON SECURITY - I believe Grams is making a good move here. This gelding can only profit from the shorter trip. Grams drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to think this horse has a good chance at this level. Turning for the finish line, he will have a good shot. Has much early speed, and the bullring of a track will work in his favor. CHARITABLE WINDSOR - This horse fits one of my favorite angles. A thoroughbred that has a gate AM prep since his last race and gets blinks on for today's race. That signals to me that the connections are looking for improvement. Trainer Hess gave this gelding a good stiff workout. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Taking a big class drop in class figure points from his Aug 17th race at Charles Town. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the edge.

                          Vulnerable Contenders: #3 FOREVER TAKES TIME (ML=8/5), #2 ABENDEGO (ML=9/2),

                          FOREVER TAKES TIME - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races of late. Not probable to see him doing it in today's event either. ABENDEGO - Last performed on September 7th at Charles Town, finishing fifth. Unlikely to advance off of that performance in today's race. Don't feel this entrant will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.


                          STRAIGHT WAGERS: #6 ELEANORS JACK is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
                          EXACTA WAGERS: 6 with [1,5]

                          TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                          Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6
                          SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

                          Comment

                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 16966

                            #14
                            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

                            Always check program numbers.
                            Odds shown are morning line odds.




                            Race 7 - Allowance - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 85

                            QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

                            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                            # 8 EC TEMP GL 5/2
                            # 4 HOCK TREE SPECIAL 4/1
                            # 6 LIL COOL JEWELS 7/2
                            I favor EC TEMP GL here. Should compete admirably in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. Overall the speed figs of this equine look competitive in this race. Is tough not to examine given the company run in lately. HOCK TREE SPECIAL- He has to be carefully examined given the solid speed figures. Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. LIL COOL JEWELS - Muniz has this filly running well and is a competitive choice based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figures garnered in short races recently. She looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

                            Comment

                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 16966

                              #15
                              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                              Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 64

                              Rating:

                              #2 TAPORICAL (ML=5/2)


                              TAPORICAL - Ranks number one in the field in earnings per start. A solid performance in this event will boost that bankroll.

                              Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CLEVER TIGER (ML=4/1), #1 MAXIMUM COLOR (ML=6/1), #7 MITHRIDATES (ML=6/1),

                              CLEVER TIGER - This pony didn't go to the front and didn't make up any ground down the lane last time he ran. I find it hard to wager on this racer this time around. Make him show you something in a short distance event before you bet on him in a race of 6 furlongs. MAXIMUM COLOR - This gelding hasn't had any on the board results in short distance contests in the last couple of months. Run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race at Hawthorne at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's event. MITHRIDATES - Can't invest in this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint clash recently.


                              STRAIGHT WAGERS: #2 TAPORICAL is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
                              EXACTA WAGERS: 2 with 1

                              TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                              Skip
                              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

                              Comment

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