Sunday 10/22/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Leamington Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
3	3	HOWMAC SABRINA	3/1	Rooney, Garrett L - 36	360.62
5	5	NASSAU HANOVER	2/1	Doyle, Robert B - 8	354.72
7	7	JAYS N TIGERS	10/1	Moore, Andy C - 8	353.50
2	2	TJ SPITFIRE	5/1	Wray, Scott A - 22	352.74
4	4	ONIMPULSE	6/1	Clements, Daniel W - 19	345.79
1	1	DISTINCTIV SEAN	8/5	Hahn, Jonathan - 8	339.72
6	6	PUTYOURBETTDOWN	4/1	Steward, Nicholas - 18	326.14
8	AE	EINHORN	N/A	Wray, Scott A - 22	325.87

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
1	1	D A JIMINY CRICKET	2/1	Haughan, Anthony P - 10	406.56
10	AE	ONYX BOVINO	N/A	Harris, J Bradley - 14	397.19
4	4	MONEY ON THE BEACH	10/1	Sorrie, Austin - 14	362.82
9	9	WHEN URHOT URHOT	12/1	Brown, Beau M - 6	345.25
7	7	DANCELIKE EHSKIPPR	6/1	Coulter, Scott - 14	341.27
6	6	COUNTRY MOUSE	8/1	Henry, Travis J - 18	337.14
8	8	ID IMAGINE	4/1	Ryan, Jason D - 14	325.93
5	5	D A LUNCHBOX	6/1	Cullen, Travis A - 26	321.29
2	2	NOVA SCOTIA STRONG	8/5	Moore, Tyler - 10	315.21
3	3	HANK THE HUNK	8/1	Small, Larry J - 11	293.06

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 3:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6250 - WINNERS 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 ROCK'S IMAGE 8/5
# 4 KID DID IT 6/1
# 2 MIRACLEPOWERFULL 5/1

ROCK'S IMAGE will have you running to the cashier's window today. Can't pass over based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been fantastic (78 avg) recently. Worth considering in this one if only for the really good speed figure achieved in the last contest. With Buford in the bike, watch out for this race horse to get the trip to the winner's circle. KID DID IT - Worth considering here based on the rankings in the speed figure department alone. Positively the class of the pack with an average rating of 79. A nice pick. MIRACLEPOWERFULL - With a really good 70 TrackMaster speed fig last time out, will very likely be a factor in this gathering.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Sunday, October 22

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	6 Town Hall 4 Title Contender 2 Midnite Lumberjack	6 Town Hall 4 Title Contender 8 Tis Charming	4 Title Contender 5 This Time Blue 6 Town Hall	4 Title Contender 7 T B Twelve Always 6 Town Hall	2 Midnite Lumberjack 6 Town Hall 7 T B Twelve Always
2	2 Medaglia Forever 1 Sassy Walker 4 Flashy Lass	2 Medaglia Forever 4 Flashy Lass 1 Sassy Walker	5 Colette's Joy 4 Flashy Lass 2 Medaglia Forever	5 Colette's Joy 4 Flashy Lass 2 Medaglia Forever	7 Misintention 2 Medaglia Forever 4 Flashy Lass
3	3 Ethical Judgement 1 Koufax 5 Allege	1 Koufax 3 Ethical Judgement 2 Derby Code	3 Ethical Judgement 4 Devil Vision 2 Derby Code	6 The Reds 3 Ethical Judgement 5 Allege	5 Allege 6 The Reds 3 Ethical Judgement
4	10 Mrs. Speaker 1 My Best Day Ever 7 Belle of the Ball	1 My Best Day Ever 9 Teshima 7 Belle of the Ball	9 Teshima 7 Belle of the Ball 10 Mrs. Speaker	7 Belle of the Ball 1 My Best Day Ever 2 Birdie Rose	5 Soulful Tara 7 Belle of the Ball 1 My Best Day Ever
5	11 Lady Goldstart 9 Goin' Good 1 Top Gun Girl	2 Carimba 1 Top Gun Girl 9 Goin' Good	8 Querobin Dourada 11 Lady Goldstart 9 Goin' Good	2 Carimba 9 Goin' Good 11 Lady Goldstart	2 Carimba 1 Top Gun Girl 11 Lady Goldstart
6	1 Moreau 7 Black Rain 6 Seeking Unity	2 Grand Aspen 4 Leading Contender 7 Black Rain	7 Black Rain 4 Leading Contender 3 Redeemer	7 Black Rain 4 Leading Contender 3 Redeemer	7 Black Rain 4 Leading Contender 2 Grand Aspen
7	3 Vergara 9 Transient (GB) 4 Be Up	6 Romagna Mia (GB) 5 Personal Best 8 Lovely Princess	9 Transient (GB) 3 Vergara 6 Romagna Mia (GB)	8 Lovely Princess 1 Henrietta Topham 9 Transient (GB)	5 Personal Best 3 Vergara 9 Transient (GB)
8	11 Agoo 1 Phantom Speed 2 Legalize	7 Ethan Energy 6 Skelly Road 5 Mystik Dan	6 Skelly Road 7 Ethan Energy 11 Agoo	11 Agoo 7 Ethan Energy 2 Legalize	1 Phantom Speed 11 Agoo 7 Ethan Energy
9	10 Get Twisted 5 Just a Care (IRE) 9 Empire of My Own	6 All I Want Is You 5 Just a Care (IRE) 3 Queen of the Mud (IRE)	3 Queen of the Mud (IRE) 5 Just a Care (IRE) 2 Hurricane Debbie	5 Just a Care (IRE) 12 Firing Bullets 3 Queen of the Mud (IRE)	13 My Sweet Affair 5 Just a Care (IRE) 10 Get Twisted

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Sunday at Keeneland!

1st Race
6-4-2

#6 Town Hall drops in class after one race and looms the one to beat because of it. #4 Title Contender also drops as does #2 Midnite Lumberjack.


2nd Race
2-1-4

#2 Medaglia Forever has come close lately and to me this race looks like she’s ready to graduate and pick up her first win, she’s found the right group. #1 Sassy Walker changes things up and goes two turns for the first time in her career, could move forward because of it. #4 Flashy Lass takes blinkers off and has run a recent race that was an improved effort.


3rd Race
3-1-5

#3 Ethical Judgement drops in class and deserves a big look today because of it. #1 Koufax won his last race against lesser, but did so easily. #5 Allege is better at these longer distances. Have to respect for that reason alone.



4th Race
10-1-7

#10 Mrs. Speaker finds the right group to win her first race today. #1 My Best Day Ever drops in class and gets Saez in the saddle. Both reasons to like. #7 Belle of the Ball also class drops and should be respected as much as anyone in here.


5th Race
11-9-1

#11 Lady Goldstart really hasn’t missed a beat in the last several races consistently showing up with good runs and fast enough to clear and go from the outside. #9 Goin’ Good is more than capable of a win and should stalk off the pace today. #1 Top Gun Girl will be fast from the inside, its just a case of if she will want a bit of give in the ground today that will be likely



6th Race
1-7-6

#1 Moreau is capable of holding a good position to the first wire finish line today and gets Johnny Velasquez in the saddle. #7 Black Rain should be aggressively ridden from the outside and make a good showing based on recent runs. #6 Seeking Unity is better at two turns and she gets that shot today.



7th Race
3-9-4

#3 Vergara is a bit of a standout in my opinion in the G3 Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes. She can control the race early and should outclass this group. #9 Transient will come with a late run that should get her in the top 3 at least. #4 Be Up has run some of her best races lately because of added distance…might have something to say in the end.


8th Race
11-1-2

#11 Agoo ran well on debut and should be respected. It’ll be interesting to see how this horse is bet. I’m in on this runner in start 2 of his career. #1 Phantom Speed comes from a family of 2 year old winners. Should be ready to roll today, a son of Arrogate and a $700k Keeneland Sale Grad for Pin Oak Stud. #2 Legalize is also bred to win early.


9th Race
10-5-9

#10 Get Twisted won on debut at 91-1 and did so very easily. Should be respected this time and might be a really good horse. #5 Just a Care should be able to close on this turf today. #9 Empire of My Own will be a pace setter and could make it all the way today versus this group.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Sunday, October 22, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Filly and mare turf marathoners are center stage in Race 7, the Grade 3 $300,000 Dowager Stakes. Among the stars are Kentucky Downs’ Ladies Marathon winner Vergara. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 5,7,9.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Sunny skies with a forecasted high of 62 degrees is in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Maiden claiming 2-year-olds open the pick 5 at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. These races are historically very formful with favorites winning more than 42% over the years on dirt. Experienced runners own 26 of the 30 wins. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, as well as 14 of the 30 2YO MCL dirt routes in the database, so give extra looks to Title Contender, This Time Blue and Tis Charming. Brad Cox (5) and Kenny McPeek (4) have the most 2YO MCL dirt route wins at Kee and are repped here by two each – Title Contender & Town Hall as well as Footprint & Tis Charming, respectively.


2nd Race
Elder maiden special weight runners route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. In 21 prior elder MSW routes on dirt in Fall Meets, Churchill preppers have 11 wins. Sassy Walker, Collette’s Joy, Perceptive and Misintention rep CD here. All 21 winners were 8-1 or less odds with an average winner at 7-2, so don’t expect a major upset. Turf-to-dirt moves have had some success with 6 victories of the 21 like Collette’s Joy and Sassy Walker attempt, though Sassy Walker tries to buck the trend of stretch-out sprinters winning these races (only 3 of 21 went to such moves). Stagflation runs back second time at the meet on a 14-day layoff; note a similar race to this was won in 2020 off a 10-day Fall Meet run-back.


3rd Race
Upper-level $50,000 open claimers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Favorites are 11-23 in claiming races at the current meet (16-23 in the exacta) after Saturday’s opener. We’ve had 18 such dirt claimers for $50K or higher in open conditions in Fall Meets with very few discernible trends appearing. The other unique twist here is the 1-1/8 miles distance.There’s only been 1 claimer above open $20K level on the dirt in Fall Meets at this trip. At any claiming level, there have been 23 such 9F dirt races in Fall Meets and only 4 winners closed from more than 5 lengths back at the half-mile point to win. A slower pace usually means horses up front have a better shot. Use more traditional handicapping here as Ethical Judgement is a course winner and runs to good local pedigree, drops in class and has top rider Tyler Gaffalione as a very logical player. Devil Vision won at this class level in Fall 2022 and certainly fits as well.


4th Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to My Best Day Ever, Soulful Tara, Chanel Point and Mrs. Speaker. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed. Teshima made the lead here sprinting against slightly tougher when a good third in the Spring Meet. She should contend for the front along with My Best Day Ever, a daughter of Liam’s Map, who has sired a couple of maiden dirt winners at the current meet.



5th Race
Turf sprint allowance runners kick off today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 in what is also the swing race in the early and late pick 5. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Querobin Dourada as the only KD prepper. She’s also a deep closer in a race loaded with speed and a race that’s profiling to late runs at the meet. I love this play. Top Gun Girl must be respected for Wesley Ward, a winner of 46 Kee turf sprints in our database (no other trainer more than 8). Goin’ Good is stakes-placed here as a turf sprinter in the ’22 Spring Giant’s Causeway, a race Querobin Dourada was runner-up in this past Spring Meet. Lady Goldstart pairs with top Kee turf sprint jockey Joel Rosario, a rider whose late style should suit this race shape.


6th Race
The late pick 4 starts with an entry-level (N1X) allowance at 1-1/16 miles on dirt. We’ve had 15 allowance races on dirt this current Fall Meet with Saratoga and Churchill preppers each winning 5. Favorites have 6 wins with average win odds at 9-2. That’s right about where you would expect. Among the 6 such route races, only 1 real closer has scored with an average winner 1-1/2 lengths back after the first half-mile. Chad Brown has a pair of dirt ALW wins so far this meet and can add a third with Leading Contender. Note that runner’s runner-up last time came against Film Star, a next-out ALW winner who would then run second in the Woodward Stakes. Todd Pletcher won a similar race to this earlier in the meet with Courbe and takes two shots here with Grand Aspen and Black Rain, the latter most appealing to my eye.


7th Race
The featured Dowager Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on turf is middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. There are 17 editions of the Dowager in our database with 16 of the 17 winners formful at 8-1 or less, including 9-17 favorites. Closers are strong here historically with an average winner 5 lengths back after the first half-mile and only 2 winners coming on the front end. Look for horses who prepped at 1-1/4 miles or longer as they account for 12 of the 17 winners. Kentucky Downs (4) and Saratoga (4) have split the winners, but combined account for just over half of the scores). Trainer Graham Motion won this race in 2015 and 2020 and sends out both Vergara and Romagna Mia. I love to pedigree shop stamina in these 12F turf routes, so Vergara (by strong Kee turf sire Noble Mission), Be Up (a grandson of Kee turf marathon ace producer Dynaformer), Romagna Mia (by Mastercraftsman) and Transient (by Sea the Stars) all bring appeal. Note Lovely Princess scratched from Saturday’s Race 8 allowance to run in this spot.


8th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters dash 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. Favorites are 5-12 at the current meet after the chalk won Saturday (only 1 winner has topped 6-1 odds). Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 3 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Saturday’s 2YO MSW win on dirt by Brad Cox was his third of meet, leading all trainers (Wesley Ward has 2). Cox tries for a fourth with Ethan Energy, a first-timer. Among experienced foes, Agoo was a debut runner-up at Churchill to Stretch Ride, who already returned at this Kee meet for Dale Romans to win in allowance company. Steve Asmussen already had a big-time MSW debut winner this meet named Booth and could have a good one in Skelly Road. If Armando Hernandez, who has popped 3 winners at the meet ala superman from Illnois, gets King Anthony in from the also-eligible list, you have to consider.


9th Race
The finale is a turf sprint allowance and wraps up the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Five of the first 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Proud Mary, Jennifer My Love and Dulcia. Wesley Ward is bound to bust out in these turf sprints soon enough with his record 46 such wins at Kee (no other trainer more than 8). He’s got Hurricane Debbie. Power posts 3-4-5 have a statistical edge at strong prices in these full-field turf sprints at Keeneland, so Queen of the Mud, Corner Kick and Just a Care are drawn beautifully, barring scratches. Just A Care’s trainer Rusty Arnold is the track’s top turf sprint conditioner not named Ward.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Comments for Keeneland Sunday Oct 22

1st Race
Locked in a tight battle for leading trainer honors, Brad Cox will try to make the most of the remaining days of the meet starting here in the opener with 4-Title Contender and 6-Town Hall. The former, a son of Tapit, exits maiden special weight company and stretches out to two turns with Flavian Prat. Look for him to improve on the drop for a trainer who excels in these situations. Tow track in tougher company and appears Hall adds blinkers and exits what appears to be a key race where the winner, West Saratoga went on to win the Iroquois, the runner up Generous Tipper won his next start and was third in the Futurity and the third place finisher Django recently finished second at Keeneland in a good effort. A little more one paced than his stablemate, the colt nevertheless has been working very well and wouldn't surprise. 7-T B Twelve Always debuted on a sloppy track and also gets class relief. Look for him to be close to the pace early and possibly around for a share at the wire.


2nd Race
5-Colette's Joy leads a good group of maiden fillies going 1-1/16 miles. The filly moves turf to dirt and was a closing third going a mile at Del Mar over the summer. 4-Flashy Lass showed speed before tiring in a one mile Ellis allowance. The Brad Cox charge takes the blinkers off and by Street Sense, is definitely bred for more distance. 2-Medaglia Forever was third back in June at Ellis and seems like the truest route horse in the field. Rested since June, she can should get a nice stalking trip under Louis Saez. 7-Misintention is a long shot with a chance as the improving filly tries two turns on dirt for the first time.


3rd Race
6-The Reds makes his third start off a layoff and returns to the dirt where he was claimed by Joe Sharp start before last. In that one the gelding finished and even fourth behind an exceptionally tough group that included the highly talented Breeders' Cup bound Bright Future. Definitely gets some class relief, and picking up Saez to ride is definitely a plus. 3-Ethical Judgement drops to an all time low and has some back class. The 5-year-old has run well at Keeneland and the Brendan Walsh-Tyler Gaffalione combo is a strong one. 5-Allege should sit close to what's likely to be a soft pace. The 6-year-old was second at this $50k claiming level last out and races off the claim for his new connections.


4th Race
7-Belle of the Ball is one of the faster runners in this maiden claimer, and the filly exits better company. Away since January, the Flatter filly moves off the synthetic back to her preferred surface (dirt) and she's been competitive with better at a variety of tracks. 1-My Best Day Ever draws the rail and looks to improve in her second career start. Tricky post, but the daughter of Liam's Map vied for the lead in her debut before fading. She should carry her speed longer with easier company here. 2-Birdie Rose is one of the more experienced runners in the group and she has a second to her credit against tougher.


5th Race
While there's potentially a lot of early speed in this wide open allowance, 2-Carimba has shown the ability to both lead or stalk and pounce. On raw speed, she's a bit faster than any of her rivals and her versatility makes her the one to beat. 9-Goin Good could get the garden spot, sitting just off the early leaders. Knocking on the door against similar, she hails from a very strong sprint family for Klein Racing and trainer Brad Cox. 11-Lady Goldstart is another with natural speed but also the ability to stalk and pounce.


6th Race
Todd Pletcher, tied with several for leading trainer, has Black Rain making his third career start as he moves up from the maiden ranks to to try winners for the first time. Representing Chad Brown--also involved in that Trainer's battle, 4-Leading Contender was second against similar at Saratoga last out and has done little wrong in 3 starts. Look for the daughter of Gun Runner to sit a similar trip to Black Rain. 3-Redeemer is entered in the Keeneland November Sale but before he sells, he'll have a chance for shipping money after a third place finish in a tough allowance.


7th Race
With potentially a stiff early pace in the Dowager, late running 8-Lovely Princess could get the perfect set up. 2 for 2 at Keeneland, the filly has been knocking on the door in stakes company including a second in the prestigious EP Taylor in Toronto. 1-Jemroetta Tp[ja, os emptier wjp chi;d get the trip, stalking just off the pace in her previous tries. 9-Transient fits with these and was just second in the Ladies Marathon.


8th Race
A lot of different ways to go in this wide open maiden race for two year olds. 11-Agoo has the advantage of a race under his belt, and he's continued to train well since his debut. 7-Ethan Energy, a Stonestreet homebred, makes his debut after many long works. The 1/2 brother to Royal Charlotte has a precocious pedigree and a lot of works under his belt as he debuts for Brad Cox. 2-Legalize makes his debut for Cherie DeVaux who is enjoying a break through meet and year. While the trainer tends to take her time with young horses, the colt is by a win early sire, Constitution, and he has some fast works in the morning at Keeneland.


9th Race
Last race of the week features first level allowance turf sprinters, and 5-Just a Care comes off the layoff with strong credentials. The filly was only beaten a few lengths in the Limestone in the spring at Keeneland, she's proven she can run well fresh and she's improved with each of her four starts. 3-Queen of the Mud seeks her second straight win after breaking her maiden in her second start.

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

The grade 2 Dowager highlights today's card and the favorite is vulnerable. Good luck!


1st Race
6-Town Hall caught a tough group in his debut and he has the pedigree to welcome the added distance he gets in this spot. The Cox barn has another strong contender in 4-Title Contender and he brings a similar profile but he wasn't bet that hard first time out. 8-Tis Charming debuted at a mile and should benefit from that experience and fitness.


2nd Race
2-Medaglia Forever has run very well in three of four dirt starts and Saez has ridden her in three of those so it's good to see him showing up in the saddle in this spot. 4-Flashy Lass improved significantly with more distance in the second start. 1-Sassy Walker always takes money so somebody thinks she has ability--perhaps the added distance will bring it out. 3-Stagflation moves up in class but ran well on this surface on opening weekend.


3rd Race
1-Koufax looked good in the first outing for the Amoss barn. The distance is a question but he has the pedigree to handle it. 3-Ethical Judgement has run in each of her three starts on this track and the barn has had a good meet. 2-Derby Code is a longshot with a good chance if he can transfer that turf form from his last start to the main track here.


4th Race
1-My Best Day Ever plunges in class for her second start and her early speed makes her the one to beat under Saez. 9-Teshima ran well last time and she's run well on this track for the Ramsey stable. Gafflione in the saddle doesn't hurt. 7-Belle of the Ball also drops in class but is coming off a long layoff.


5th Race
2-Carimba posted a 103 Beyer off the break and anything close to that effort makes her tough to beat in this spot. 1-Top Gun Girl is a Wesley Ward runner in a turf sprint--enough said. 9-Goin' Good has run well here and was second as the favorite to Carimba last time. The post position is a little challenging. 8-Querobin Dourada ran well here in the spring.


6th Race
2-Grand Aspen has been steadily improving since coming off a long layoff and the inside draw is a plus. 4-Leading Contender is a strong contender, too, but at a short price, I'm not sure he has a great edge over a couple of these. 7-Black Rain has run well in both starts but now faces winners for the first time.


7th Race
At 6-1, 6-Romagna Mia is a strong 'win' contender off her US debut. She lost to a pair of next-out winners and in that short field, she was the one that tried unsuccessfully to put pressure on the lone frontrunner. For this marathon distance, I liked seeing how this filly was challenged for third and then held off that rival and was drawing away from her at the wire. 5-Personal Best has run well in all of her starts on this course. 8-Lovely Princess moves up in class but she's in top form and loves this course. 9-Transient has run well in both starts off the break. 3-Vergara may not be as good away from Kentucky Downs.


8th Race
Some well-bred first-time starters in this field so it's a race where you want to spread in multi-race bets. 7-Ethan Energy is from the Cox barn for Stonestreet Stable and he's by Uncle Mo. 6-Skelly Road shows good works for the Asmussen barn, which has had a good meet. 5-Mystik Dan comes from the McPeek barn and while they're not known for first-out winners, this one shows some blazing works. 2-Legalize has worked well on this track, too. 4-Call Protection is a Chad Brown firster with Gafflione riding.


9th Race
There's a chance for a bit of a price in the finale with 6-All I Want Is You. She ran well in her first try against winners while being in a tight spot until mid-stretch and the stretch runners were already rolling by then. She has good speed and she ran well here in the spring. 5-Just a Care turned in a solid performance in a stake on this turf course last April. 3-Queen of the Mud posted an 84 Beyer last time but moves up to take on winners today. 1-Proud Mary had a wide trip last time and was running at a distance that may be beyond her best.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Sunday October 22, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Dowager Stakes – Grade 3
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#4 Be Up – minimum win betting odds 7 to 2
#5 Personal Best – minimum win betting odds – 7 to 2
#8 Lovely Princess – minimum win betting odds – 4 to 1

Be Up could give trainer Mike Maker yet another winner in a marathon turf race on the Kentucky Circuit. He leads all trainers in this race with five over the last five years and it appears Be Up fits the Maker pattern of acquiring a horse (privately or via a claim) which has never run a marathon distance (11 furlongs or more) and turning them into a horse who can run these long distances. Be Up moved to the Maker barn in February, with a three for eight record. She immediately won a mile race, on all-weather, then won two later on grass. Her best race to date came in his most recent start in July at 10 furlongs where she stalked the pacesetter in second then took over after a mile and was challenged by held safe by a half-length. As a daughter of Temple City the additional quarter mile is no issue, and in a field in which only one other horse, Vergara, may want to lead but may also stalk the pacesetter, jockey Saez has a lot of options with Be Up, who can earn her fourth win for Maker in her sixth start in his care.

Personal Best won at this marathon distance in the similar Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes in January, then missed by a half-length in the same sort of race, the Orchid Stakes, in April. She was third in the spring equivalent of this race at Keeneland, the Bewitch Stakes, then ran more poorly at shorter distances. She gets the services of red hot Flavien Prat, battling for the riding title at the Keeneland fall meeting, and stretching back out to her best distance, Personal Best has a big shot to rebound to top form.

Lovely Princess has finished second in three straight races, all stakes, one at this distance, the Keertana Stakes in late May at Churchill Downs. She won right before that six months ago on the Keeneland turf and now with seven first or second place finishes in 11 career starts must be strongly considered a contender to finish first or second.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim Nelson

Sunday's card features The Rood and Riddle Dowager Grade 3 with a field of 9 three year olds and upward Fillies and Mares. The entire card is very competitive and a challenge to handicap. Look for some big payoffs.

1st Race
#2 Midnite Lumberjack has moved barns several times in his short career and has landed with Rusty Arnold for this one. He showed some early speed last out suggesting he can lay close to the pace here. He looks like an improving sort that could get the job done with these. #6 Town Hall exits a key race that was his debut effort. He adds blinkers for his 2nd try at the races and comes over with top connections. #7 T B Twelve Always turned in an even effort in his debut and look for him to move forward off that one. Top Picks #2, #6 and #7


2nd Race
#7 Misintention is making her 2nd off the layoff and is her 2nd with Lasix. The well bred filly has the opportunity to improve here and like that Jimmy Graham is staying in the saddle. Expect decent on odds on this one. #2 Medaglia Forever is making her first off the summer break and her past form is strong with these. She brings a solid work tab suggesting she is fit and ready to roll. #4 Flashy Las is making her 3rd career start and showed a bit of promise in her last. She leaves the blinkers in the barn this time and expect her to show up sharp. Top Picks #7, #2 and #4


3rd Race
#5 Allege is first off the claim and recent form suggests he fits well here. He knows how to get to the wire first with 8 wins under his belt and brings some early foot to gain good position into the first turn. #6 The Reds moves back to the dirt after a unsuccessful grass run. He drops to a new low here and recent works are encouraging. A distance specialist and he gets Luis Saez in the irons. #3 Ethical Judgement comes over as the early 8-5 favorite off his recent form. Top Picks #5, #6 and #3


4th Race
#5 Soulful Tara is making a slight drop in class and can boast one of the best last Beyer Speed figures. She finds a soft bunch here and could get the maiden win with a good trip. #7 Belle of the Ball is dropping in for a tag for the first time in her 4 race career. She has been off since January but works are solid and could be tough in this one. #1 My Best Day Ever is dropping significantly off her debut effort and look for her to move forward. Top Picks #5, #7 and #1


5th Race
#2 Carimba posted a triple digit Beyer number last out and that was her first off the short layoff. She hasn't missed a check in 8 career starts and may be rounding in to her best form yet. #1 Top Gun Girl is fast and recent works suggest she will be quite sharp for this one. She comes over with the Wesley Ward team and have to keep in your wagers. #11 Lady Goldstart is first off the claim for the Maker barn. Barn does very well with this type and would suggest using her in all exotic wagers. Top Picks #2, #1 and #11


6th Race
#7 Black Rain exits a gate to wire maiden score that earned him an 87 Beyer Speed figure. He adds a little distance here but expect that to only make him better. #4 Leading Contender is the 7-5 early favorite and rightfully so with the 90 Beyer he posted in his last where he finished a good 2nd to return winner Film Star. The back up in distance works to his advantage and will be tough to beat. #2 Grand Aspen has been quite consistent this form cycle with a win and 2 seconds in his last 3 starts. He is moving from turf to dirt but still expect a good effort. Top Picks #7, #4 and #2


7th Race
#5 Personal Best has been keeping this type of company her last 5 starts and has been very competitive. She is 3rd off the layoff here and this looks to be her best distance. She brings a late kick that could prove untouchable down the lane. #3 Vergara is the early 9-5 favorite off her win in the Grade 3 Lady's Marathon at KY Downs. She defeated several of her rivals here in that one and her Beyer numbers are impressive. #9 Transient just missed to Vergara last time out and she too deserves respect with these. Top Picks #5, #3 and #9


8th Race
#1 Phantom Speed was an impressive yearling bringing $700K at the Keeneland September Yearling sale. Not crazy about the inside post for a first timer but this colt's works are strong and Rosario is one of the best at getting a horse out of the gates. Look for a sharp performance at first asking . #11 Agoo has a race under his belt where he finished 2nd to return winner Stretch Ride who won here earlier in the meet. His work tab and last start suggests he is fast and may prove tough to catch. #7 Ethan Energy is a firster from the Brad Cox barn. Well bred colt by Uncle Mo looks the part. Top Picks #1, #11 and #7


9th Race
#13 My Sweet Affair is the top pick here if she draws in. She is a distance specialist and has been competitive with tough company in past performances. She's fresh here with a solid work tab. #5 Just a Care is coming in off the layoff but she looks well prepared and could fire off a big effort first off the bench. She also has the home court advantage. #10 Get Twisted was very impressive winning her first start and has since turned in solid works. Hoping she can boost exotics. Top Picks #13, #5 and #10

[ConleyPicks]

SANTA ANITA AUTUMN MEETING : 10/22/23

1st post: 1:00 PM	Bob Mieszerski (34/$141.00)	Art Wilson (25/$176.40)	Terry Turrell (19/$108.60)	Eddie Wilson (32/$174.00)	Consensus* (28/$129.60)
1	Stagger Lee Tom Seaver Beer Money	Western Grit Smiling Jojo Whiskey Rye	Tom Seaver Western Grit Stagger Lee	Beer Money Smiling Jojo Tom Seaver	Tom Seaver (8) Western Grit (7) Stagger Lee (6)
2	Sugar Fish Miss Pixy Stix Asian Matriarch	Asian Matriarch High Flying Gracie Miss Pixy Stix	Miss Pixy Stix Sugar Fish California Code	Asian Matriarch Sugar Fish Miss Pixy Stix	Asian Matriarch (11) Sugar Fish (9) Miss Pixy Stix (9)
3	Inner Beauty Gypsy Lynn Miss Lizzy	Gypsy Lynn Miss Lizzy Flame McGoon	Inner Beauty Secrets Told Gypsy Lynn	GYPSY LYNN Inner Beauty Miss Lizzy	Gypsy Lynn (15) Inner Beauty (12) Miss Lizzy (4)
4	Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress	Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress	Jazzy Empress Big Rainbow Bella Vienna	Bella Vienna Big Rainbow Jazzy Empress	Bella Vienna (16) Jazzy Empress (8) Big Rainbow (8)
5	SORBET Ha Ha Gloria She's Muy Muy	Encolpion Sorbet My Moon	Cy's Silkstocking Sorbet Encolpion	Sorbet Cy's Silkstocking She's Muy Muy	Sorbet (16) Cy's Silverstocking (7) Encolpion (6)
6	Tiff With Jimmy Allocate Unkept Secret	Unkept Secret Tiff With Jimmy Allocate	Tiff With Jimmy Unkept Secret Miss Commander	Unkept Secret Tiff With Jimmy California Diva	Tiff With Jimmy (14) Unkept Secret (13) Allocate (3)
7	Americaredwhiteblu Lemon Sushi Don't Swear Dave	DON'T SWEAR DAVE Americaredwhiteblu Tigerhon	AMERICAREDWHITEBLU Don't Swear Dave Lemon Sushi	Americaredwhiteblu Lemon Sushi Devil Moon	AMERICAREDWHITEBLU (19) Don't Swear Dave (10) Lemon Sushi (5)
8	Castle Island Central Dispatch Devilish Desire	Central Dispatch Matanzas Creek Dazzlemesilver	Central Dispatch Palagio Matanzass Creek	Admiral Halsey Palagio Devilish Desire	Centrail Dispatch (12) Castle Island (5) Admiral Halsey (5)
9	Touchdown Kittle Dark Marcus Chrome to Riches	Maxville City of Angels Touchdown Kittle	Touchdown Kittle City of Angels Dark Marcus	City of Angels Maxville Dark Marcus	Touchdown Kittle (11) City of Angels (9) Maxville (7)
	*Selections from Bob Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Terry Turrell and Eddie Wilson are combined in the consensus. A top choice receives five points (handicapper's capitalized best bet receives seven) a second choice two points and a third choice one. Numbers below handicapper's name reflect total wins and money won for the meet.

[ConleyPicks]

October 22, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Smiling Jojo; 3-Tom Seaver.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Stagger Lee; 2-Cody Boy.

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging state-bred maiden turf sprint with several possibilities. A “spread” strategy is recommended. Smiling Jojo is bred for speed (Smiling Tiger) and apparently has plenty of it based on his last pair of workouts, so we suspect he’ll turn up a live item on the tote. He’s a bit high headed and may be a difficult ride, but if he breaks running the Brian Koriner-trained sophomore should make his presence felt. We haven’t seen Tom Seaver in the morning (he’s done most of his preparation at Los Alamitos), but we all remember his brilliant dam, Enola Gay, who was one of the fastest California-bred sprinters in the past several years. This will be her first foal to make it to the post, and it will be interesting to see if he can display at least some of his mother’s ability.

*

RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Sugar Fish; 2-Asian Matriarch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sugar Flash plummets from a pair of straight maiden races to this maiden $32,000 event, and with just four rivals in the field the daughter of Accelerate looks like the one to beat pretty much by default. The pedigree okay’s this longer distance and with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle fully in play she shouldn’t have any excuses. Asian Matriarch was claimed out of a maiden $50,000 sprint in which she finished a somewhat lethargic fourth at 7/5. The new connections clearly aren’t thrilled with the acquisition, hence the class drop, but with back numbers that fit and with a big break in the weights she’s clearly the one to fear most.

*

RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Miss Lizzy; 5-Inner Beauty.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Miss Lizzy is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and had legitimate excuses when closing well but too late in her most recent outing that resulted in a better-than-looked fifth place finish in a very fast, highly rated race for the level. This group should be well within her range, so let’s go with the Doug O’Neill-trained filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1. Inner Beauty is winless in six starts over the local lawn but she has dangerous early speed and is turning back from a route. If she can clear the field without pressure she could prove hard to catch.

*

RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bella Vienna; 1-Big Rainbow.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Bella Vienna displayed early speed before fading in her first two outings but today takes the always critical class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming. She should be able to shake loose early without pressure and then have every chance to complete the deal in the final stages. Big Rainbow is a one-paced grinder removing blinkers. If our top pick can’t see out the trip, she’s the one most likely to catch her.

*

RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sorbet; 3-Ha Ha Gloria; 1-She’s Muy Muy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sorbet brought $190,000 as a yearling, finished second in her debut facing straight maidens at Los Alamitos last month, and today shows up in a maiden claimer, not exactly a ringing endorsement from her connections. If she runs back to her first race, she’ll likely win, though at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not a lot of value to be found. Ha Ha Gloria displayed some talent when a good runner-up facing a decent field of maidens in her debut last November over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland. She’s not the smoothest of movers and the local workouts don’t inspire, but the barn has excellent stats with layoff runners and this Irish-bred filly certainly is bred to enjoy grass. Look for her to be running on late. She’s a Muy Muy has speed breeding (Goldencents) and could be a sneaky type for trainer Mark Glatt. She’s acted a bit green in her morning trials but if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’s likely to be in the fray.

*

RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Tiff With Jimmy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Tiff With Johnny drops to her lowest level ever and in this soft bottom-rung maiden claiming ($20,000) field the Mark Glatt-trained filly appears to have found her friends. She shortens to five and one-half furlongs, picks up bug boy Torrealba, and should be hard to catch, but at a short price. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

*

RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Americaredwhiteblu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Don’t Swear Dave.

Forecast: Americaredwhiteblu has been away for more than a year but returns protected in a sign of confidence by trainer Mark Glatt, whose success with layoff runners is well-documented. Much faster that these on speed figures if he returns as well as he left, the first-time gelding is unproven on grass (winless in two prior starts) but has the pedigree to handle the lawn and we suspect he will. Regular rider Abel Cedillo keeps the mount, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him an aggressive play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Matanzas Creek; 6-Central Dispatch.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Matanzas Creek has done some good work in the morning while preparing for his racing debut and from his comfortable outside draw the son of Empire Maker should have every chance to produce a winning effort in this extended sprint for older straight maidens. The barn’s “go-to” rider Ramon Vasquez take the mount for a trainer whose first timers often run better than they work. Central Dispatch is the one to fear most. A reasonable runner-up as the favorite in a similar event at Del Mar last time out, the son of Arrogate was more than six lengths clear of the rest, has trained well since, and appears headed in the right direction.

*

RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): City of Angels; 2-Touchdown Kittle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Dark Marcus.

Forecast: City of Angels was scratched yesterday out of a tougher race (a sprint) for this moderate nine furlong maiden turf affair that, and at least based on his pedigree he should offer much more agreeable conditions. With the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and showing significant improvement in the speed figure department between his first and second starts, the Mike Puype-trained gelding boasts a strong, healthy work tab in recent weeks to indicate he’s ready to step forward again. Look for him to settle in the second flight and then have every opportunity from the quarter pole home. Touchdown Kittle is another trying a distance of ground for the first time, but in his case he’s certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Whether or not he can run this far is questionable, but if he can get the trip it'll most likely be in his first attempt.

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Keeneland - Race #5

#8 Querobin Dourada	Think you can go a handful of different ways in a race with a lot of spotty form, but this one is bringing fairly reliable route lines with her and has some good back sprint form that makes her appealing from off the pace.
#9 Goin' Good	She almost always fires and is likely to find another great pressing spot into the turn. Not sure I'd want to be here if the price got kind of short with the string of underneath finishes on the page.
#1 Top Gun Girl	She's a bit of a question on class while facing some stakes types, but her better efforts keep her in the picture with these at what might be an OK price.
Race Summary	Querobin Dourada gets some class relief out of Grade III company today, and I think her consistent ability to finish should serve her well in a race that leaves me with a lot of questions. Nothing wrong with the runner-up finish to a graded stakes sprinter in the dash here this spring.

Keeneland - Race #7

#8 Lovely Princess	She might get a bit overlooked with some generally cheaper runs to her name over the last 18 months, but I like how honest she is and that she loves this turf course.
#9 Transient	She has been competitive with some of the other runners in here in the efforts on her page, and she doesn't seem affected by the race flow in most of her starts. Capable.
#6 Romagna Mia	Probably wanted to see something just a touch better from her in that short Beverly D. field back in August, but she might appreciate working with some added ground today that allows her to lope at one pace.
Race Summary	#3 Vergara is probably tough in here, too, but I don't totally trust her to run back to the last one at what is likely a short kind of price. Lovely Princess has thrived here in the past and handled a marathon stakes trip with cheaper back at Churchill in May, and I'm hoping she'll sneak by at a midrange price.

Keeneland - Race #9

#5 Just a Care	She's down out of stakes company off the bench today, and she ran OK with that better group here in the spring. Think she might find a dreamy kind of spot behind the pace from here.
#3 Queen of the Wild	Worry that she'll be overbet for tough connections off a couple races that feel like they stack up but don't stand out. Guessing there is still better here.
#10 Get Twisted	She doesn't seem...totally overmatched here (?) after the 91/1 upset in her debut try, and she's at least meeting a handful of pace horses who might give her a fair chance to roll past again.
Race Summary	Just a Care comes back fresh and gets into an allowance spot with some form that stacks up nicely here, and she feels like the right one if she comes back the way she left.

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Sunday October 22, 2023
BAQ PICKS

Acacia Clement
Race 1 6-7-1-2
Race 2 6-7-1-3
Race 3 7-3-4-2
Race 4 7-2-6-9
Race 5 1A-13-12-2B
Race 6 2-1-5-7
Race 7 7-1-8-3
Race 8 13-11-9-12
Race 9 2-11-3-1

Paul Verderosa
Race 1 7-2-6-1
Race 2 3-7-4-6
Race 3 3-6-1-4
Race 4 4-9-2-3
Race 5 13-2B-10-12
Race 6 1-2-4-8
Race 7 1-4-8-6
Race 8 11-13-12
Race 9 2-7-11-10

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 22
by David Aragona

BAQ

PICKS

Race 1: 6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 1A - 12 - 2B - 13
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 13 - 11 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 10 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

Just Call Ray (#6) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. This stable appears to be emerging from a monthslong slump, having sent out some live runners in recent weeks at Aqueduct. Just Call Ray comes off a solid effort at this level last month, where he was conservatively ridden until upper stretch before staying on late to finish second. Yet now he’s stretching out to 9 furlongs, and it’s unclear if he really wants to go this far. He didn’t handle 1 1/4 miles when he tried it at Saratoga three back. In some ways, his form makes him the most reliable horse in here, but I didn’t want to default to him at a short price. Treasure Trove (#7) has run some of the fastest races of anyone in this group, and was in great form when he came to Aqueduct in February of last year to win an optional claimer. His form tailed off after that, but he appeared to rebound last time in his first start off the trainer switch to Raymond Ginter. He was no match for a winner who has been in good form, but he finished well ahead of the rest while facing a tougher field than he meets today. My top pick is Higher Quality (#1). He seems like one that could fly under the radar once again for a barn that typically is underrated by the bettors. He’s just dropping back into a realistic spot after trying tougher starter allowance foes in his last race. He didn’t run well that day, but he also got very agitated before the race, and seemed to exert too much energy when unsettled on track in the post parade and warm-up. It’s definitely worth watching him before this race, but he can beat this field if he gets back into the form that we saw from him two back at Pimlico.

Fair Value:
#1 HIGHER QUALITY, at 5-1 or greater


RACE 3

The real wild card in this $12,500 claimer is Mr Phil (#4), whose good races would absolutely crush this field. Yet it’s hard to know what to expect from a runner dropping out of high-level optional claiming races into this bottom-level event. I can forgive most of his recent starts due to the tougher company, but he dropped away abruptly last time, and it’s fair to wonder if he can run at all anymore given this aggressive placement. Another horse dropping in class is Prince James (#6), and he is doing so first off the claim for Linda Rice. I’m a little less concerned about this drop, since Linda tends to place her horses where they can win and he’s coming off a poor effort at the $20k level. This horse ran plenty of races for Ray Handal earlier this year that would make him tough, and Rice has been potent with her claims over the past year. Ray Handal’s runner in this race is Ensign Parker (#2), who seeks his second victory in a row after winning in a slightly cheaper spot last time. He got a smart ride from Dylan Davis, who hustled him to the front despite a slow break. That allowed him to control the race on a day where horses who got clear generally had an advantage. That track profile appeared to work against Winning Drive (#3). He was always out of position after a tardy start and was also compromised by traffic in the stretch as he was attempting to mount a rally. He actually ran much better than the result indicates. He was also up against a bias two back at Saratoga when encountering a speed-favoring track against a slightly tougher field. I think he’s finally getting into a more favorable spot, and the price figures to be fair given his dirtied up form.

Fair Value:
#3 WINNING DRIVE, at 8-1 or greater


RACE 6

This $35k conditioned claimer seems truly wide open. Western Lane (#7) in some ways is the most reliable runner, since she’s generally been consistent from a speed figure standpoint in her limited dirt races. The problem with her is that she’s coming off victory against a very weak off the turf field, and her lack of early speed could be a problem going this shorter distance. Everlys Girl (#2) makes plenty of sense on numbers coming off the claim for David Jacobson, shipping in from California. She appears to fit at this level, but she’s never been a horse who loves to win races and she figures to take some money in this spot. Rudy Rodriguez sends out a dangerous entry, led by Howzyourcashflow (#1), who got an awkward trip when she returned at Delaware last time. It’s possible that she just doesn’t want to go a mile, and she got shuffled back before angling wide and flattening out. I expect her to get a more aggressive ride this time as she adds blinkers. She’s the ,most likely winner in my view, but I am a little concerned that she could be too short a price as part of an entry. My top pick is Proud Foot (#5). It appears that this Linda Rice runner has gone off form, but I think she’s been in some of the wrong spots recently. She doesn’t seem to appreciate extra distance, so it was asking a lot of her to go a mile last time. She set the pace, but found herself on top of a dead rail, and came up empty in the stretch. She’s better than that, and I think she can rebound as she turns back in distance and drops slightly in class. Though, I would want to let price be my guid when deciding between she and Howzyourcashflow.

Fair Value:
#5 PROUD FOOT, at 9-2 or greater
#1 HOWZYOURCASHFLOW, at 7-2 or greater