Wednesday 10/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#7 KINETIC SWAGGER (ML=8/1)
#6 SECRET PATH (ML=5/2)
#1 ARTISTIC REASON (ML=15/1)


KINETIC SWAGGER - The Aug 30th contest at Canterbury Park was at a class level of (90). Dropping down in class ranks significantly, so he should be in a good position to win. Sophisticated handicappers will tell you that this horse has strong speed. Just check out his most recent fig, 84. That one fits well in this group.SECRET PATH - Looking at today's class rating, this horse is encountering an easier field than last race out at Parx Racing. You should toss that last race at Parx Racing on a sloppy track where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this field on a fast track. ARTISTIC REASON - Rode this horse on September 29th and Mena is right back in the irons in today's contest. Taking a class drop in class figure points from his September 29th race at Delaware Park. Based on that information, I will give this horse the edge. Sub-par performance last time around the track at Delaware Park was due to the off-going (he ended up eighth). Will most certainly do better right here under better track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MUSICAL HEART (ML=3/2), #4 LIFESPAN (ML=5/1),

MUSICAL HEART - Hasn't raced or had any works since August 2nd. Not much value on this probable favorite. This animal doesn't have a winning demeanor. Time-and-again finishes second or third. LIFESPAN - You can't keep making alibis for a pony that just doesn't win. Don't play him. This animal doesn't have a champion's make-up. Always finishes in the place or show hole.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 KINETIC SWAGGER on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,6,7] with [1,6,7] with [1,4,6,7,8] with [1,4,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
6	6	NORTHERN LUCKYGIRL	3/1	Tetrick, Trace - 22	446.27
5	5	STRAIGHT DENIM	7/2	Ross, Jordan - 10	445.66
2	2	DECISION TIME	5/2	Bender, Atlee - 10	442.62
7	7	SWEET DEE	6/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 11	440.15
1	1	FORGET ME NOT	5/1	Finn, Jared - 8	438.25
3	3	POLK DOTLADY	9/2	Wrenn, Peter - 16	409.49
4	4	LICKCREEK MOLLY	20/1	Ferguson, Brad - 6	360.20

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 1:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$9500 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,500-15,000 POST POSITION BY PRICE POCONO DOWNS M MILLER 5 OVER 8

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 FOX VALLEY INFERNO 5/1
# 3 CLOUSEAU HANOVER 3/1
# 4 JOHNNY Q 8/1

FOX VALLEY INFERNO seems to be our best wagering option in this race. Take a good look at making this horse your win play based on excellent win clip alone. The 5 hole sports a well above average win percentage at Pocono Downs. CLOUSEAU HANOVER - Faurot knows this race horse well. Excellent in the money results when starting as a team. Kakaley knows this horse well. Top notch in the money results when in the bike. JOHNNY Q - Tremendous driver Allard should find the pace of today's competition to this gelding's liking - could be a good wager. Chances are greatly improved for interesting entrants starting from the 4 position at Pocono Downs.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Wednesday, October 25

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	2 Away From Home 4 Fight'n Ready 5 Unwrapped	6 Solomon Vandy 9 Rockstar Red 3 Big Skippy	5 Unwrapped 2 Away From Home 6 Solomon Vandy	3 Big Skippy 2 Away From Home 4 Fight'n Ready	5 Unwrapped 2 Away From Home 9 Rockstar Red
2	10 Xylophone 8 My Good Fortune 7 Dre Me Less	5 Choctaw Bingo 7 Dre Me Less 10 Xylophone	7 Dre Me Less 8 My Good Fortune 5 Choctaw Bingo	10 Xylophone 8 My Good Fortune 5 Choctaw Bingo	5 Choctaw Bingo 8 My Good Fortune 7 Dre Me Less
3	4 Up On the Edge 7 When I Look At You 11 Business as Usual	1 Money Works 7 When I Look At You 4 Up On the Edge	8 Wee Bit O Mischief 4 Up On the Edge 7 When I Look At You	11 Business as Usual 2 Noriskit Nobiscuit 6 Standoutsensation	7 When I Look At You 2 Noriskit Nobiscuit 4 Up On the Edge
4	4 Summer in Malibu 2 Arabian Prince 10 Donegal Mischief	10 Donegal Mischief 7 Double Clutch 3 Just Say When	7 Double Clutch 6 Chiringo 10 Donegal Mischief	7 Double Clutch 4 Summer in Malibu 6 Chiringo	5 Town Barber 10 Donegal Mischief 6 Chiringo
5	7 Snow Dance 3 Tarifa 8 Regulatory Risk	6 Life Advice 3 Tarifa 8 Regulatory Risk	3 Tarifa 10 Waggle Pass 7 Snow Dance	8 Regulatory Risk 5 Yes to Champagne 7 Snow Dance	7 Snow Dance 3 Tarifa 8 Regulatory Risk
6	10 Mo Sense 5 Smooth Waves 6 Ask Amanda	5 Smooth Waves 9 Yatta 6 Ask Amanda	9 Yatta 5 Smooth Waves 10 Mo Sense	6 Ask Amanda 5 Smooth Waves 4 Raining Sugar	10 Mo Sense 9 Yatta 5 Smooth Waves
7	5 Angkor 10 Ducale 12 Condemn	7 Nelson Avenue 5 Angkor 10 Ducale	7 Nelson Avenue 5 Angkor 12 Condemn	5 Angkor 7 Nelson Avenue 10 Ducale	5 Angkor 1 Vittorio 10 Ducale
8	5 Command' Oro 11 Weyhill Road 4 Now That Ican Rock	9 Heart N Soul 11 Weyhill Road 3 Nation	11 Weyhill Road 9 Heart N Soul 3 Nation	3 Nation 11 Weyhill Road 10 Crossing	1 Moesahandful 3 Nation 9 Heart N Soul

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Wednesday at Keeneland!

1st Race
2-4-5

#2 Away From Home has a career best race at this same distance and right here at Keeneland. Leaning on that. #4 Fight’n Ready has never gone this far which may allow him to be more into the race and takes a drop in class which doesn't hurt. #5 Unwrapped comes into this race off of a career, best effort and doesn't find a very tough group to contend with.


2nd Race
10-8-7

#10 Xylophone comes into this race off when Anne catches the right group to win again. #8 My Good Fortune also comes off a win and is also trained by Chris Hartman who is vying for a training title. #7 Dre Me Less is equal to the above runners and will run well.



3rd Race
4-7-11

#4 Up On the Edge has improved each time she’s run and if she continues that trend she’ll win. #7 When I Look At You looks like she’ll be better going longer in start two of her career. #11 Business as Usual drops and adds blinkers and should be live.



4th Race
4-2-10

#4 Summer in Malibu gets a good set up to run late in a race full of speedy horses. #2 Arabian Prince also gets the same set up and #10 Donegal Mischief should try and clear the field from the outside and could hold on for a piece of the prize.


5th Race
7-3-8

#7 Snow Dance is a seasoned two-year-old and that goes along way in these types of races that Keeneland at this time of year as we have seen time and time again. Today looks to be her day. #3 Tarifa is a well bred Godolphin debut runner who should run well. #8 Regulatory Risk was bet to the favorite on debut and didn’t run well getting caught wide. One race doesn’t define a horse and will improve today.


6th Race
10-5-6

#10 Mo Sense comes out of a good race at Churchill and should not be overlooked with a good run that day. Add blinkers which certainly could help. #5 Smooth Waves ran in the G2 Jessamine on opening weekend and will be overset because of it and will be live but I think the price will be too low in comparison to others that make sense. #6 Ask Amanda is 1 for 1 in her career and won coming from well out of it sprinting, routing will not be a problem.


7th Race
5-10-12

#5 Angkor is a consistent runner who's running against very good company and will outrun his odds today and could easily win. #10 Ducale hasn’t run in over a year. Has serious ability and should be ready as he’s trained by Brad Cox. #12 Condemn is a Keeneland winner and should not be ignored.


8th Race
5-11-4

#5 Command’ Oro will run better going long today. #11 Weyhill Road is proven solid at these longer distances and deserves respect and may get over bet though. #4 Now That Ican Rock is a live long shot who hopefully will be ridden aggressively because he can stay.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 25, 2023

What to Watch for Today: A carryover of $54,576 awaits horseplayers in Wednesday’s $1 pick 6 to start closing week of the 2023 Fall Meet. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 4,6,8 and keep in mind that Races 4 & 5 will be swing races in the day’s key multi-race bets both early and late.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Partly cloudy skies with a high of 77 degrees is in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Maiden claimers route the rare 1-1/8 miles trip in the closing week kickoff, which starts the early pick 5. We’ve only had 6 such races in Fall Meets at this trip, all 6 winners within a length of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner just a half-length back at that point). Five winners prepped between 7F and 1 mile, the other at 1-1/16 miles … 4 were making surface changes. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). Unwrapped and Away From home both exit Churchill races at 7-1/2 fulrongs and have some ability to race forward, fitting the trends. Kenny McPeek (Solomon Vandy) and Ben Colebrook (Coure d’Oro) both have won a pair of MCL races at the current Fall Meet.


2nd Race
The increasingly popular starter allowance condition is in play over 1-1/16 miles on dirt to start the early pick 4. We’ve had 8 of them at the meet and 7 winners were 5-1 or less in a pretty formful category though favorites are just 1-for-8. The average winner has been just 1 length off the lead after the opening half-mile with only 1 of 8 captured from a horse well off the pace. Churchill preppers produced 4 of the 8 winners. Trainer Chris Hartman’s 5 wins this meeting put him in contention for the trainer’s title and he’ll have My Good Fortune via CD. Dre Me Less goes for a Norm Casse barn with a 9F starter win this Fall Meet and with a Kee-best 6 such Fall Meet starter allowance wins on dirt over the years (no other trainer more than 2).


3rd Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt as the carryover pick 6 begins. At the current meet, the 17 maiden claiming races have seen 8 winners via Churchill (Ellis next-best with 3). Six of the 11 here hail from CD, so that’s a good place to start. The 8 juvenile MCL races this meet have averaged a $15 mutuel with 4 winners via CD and 3 first-time starters (1 KD). Trainer Dale Romans is historically strong with 2YO dirt routers at Kee and has Wee Bit of Mischief here via CD, as is Rodolphe Brisset with fellow CD alum Up to the Edge.


4th Race
The late pick 5 opens with allowance turf sprinters, and this will also start the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Because of the rail position, this race will be restricted to 10 runners. The inside-outside posts aren’t nearly as disadvantaged with this configuration as the capacity 12-horse fields. Eight of 11 turf sprint winners this meet closed more than 2 lengths after the first half-mile, average just under 3 lengths back at that stage. Kentucky Downs preppers have 4 of the wins, no other circuit more than 1. Flavien Prat has a meet-best 3 turf sprint wins and partners with longshot Just Say When. Double Clutch is the only course winner in the field, at a mile, however. Trainer Rusty Arnold is one of Kee’s top turf sprint trainers. The X factor is Evangeline Downs debut romper Donegal Mischief, since purchased and moved to Brad Cox. In the 17 years of our database, only 1 EVD shipper has won, that coming in a $10K dirt claimer in 2015.


5th Race
The late pick 4 starts with 2-year-old maiden special weights sprinting 7 furlongs. Favorites are 5-13 at the current meet in 2YO dirt MSWs with 12 winners at 8-1 or less. Six first-time starters lead the way, followed by 4 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. Tarifa debuts and can give Brad Cox a meet-best fourth 2YO MSW win on dirt (2 of 3 so far were rookies). Longshot lookers consider Waggle Pass, a rookie by sire Dialed In, having a fantastic meet with 4 offspring winning, including a pair of first-time starters.


6th Race
This 2-year-old turf allowance route serves as middle leg in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We only have 10 such races in the database for the age/surface/distance. Trainer Graham Motion is the only trainer with 2 such victories and sends out both Ask Amanda and Yatta. Seven of the winners were rising in class off of MSW races, while 3 dropped out of stakes like Yatta, Sweetcatherinerose, Smooth Waves and Kamikaze Umagi attempt. Favorites are 3-10 with an average winner just under 7-1. The 10 winners come from 8 different circuits (only KD and CD have doubled up). Four of 10 stretched out from sprints, so a slight edge to route experience only.


7th Race
The featured race is a 7-furlong second-level (N2X) allowance sprint on dirt. Favorites are a representative 6-16 in dirt ALW races this Fall Meet with an average winner around 5.5-to-1. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled at the top with 6 and 5 wins, respectively. Only 1 of 9 dirt ALW sprints has been own by the half-mile leader, but 8 of 9 were within 2 lengths at that juncture. While represented by longshots here, note sire Street Sense has had a fabulous meet with 4 dirt winners and has Fan Club and Santos Dumont here. Nelson Avenue is by top Kee dirt sire Into Mischief and out of Via Strata, a mare whose only Kee appearance resulted in an 8-length allowance victory in Spring 2015. Trainer Phil Bauer is having a great meet with limited starters and seeks a third dirt ALW win of the stand when he saddles Angkor.


8th Race
Elder turf maiden special weight milers wrap the card at the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve only had 2 such races at the current meet, but 47 of them in the database. Favorites are a woeful 11 for 47 with an average winner about 5.5-to-1. Kentucky Downs holds a 16-13 prep locale edge over NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) .. Churchill a woeful 3 winners. Only 1 rookie has succeeded like Added Mischief and Nation attempt, and the former is second choice on the morning line. The KD set includes As One Does, Little Nick, Heart N Soul and Weyhill Road from the main body of the field. Trainer Shug McGaughey won 2 of these races in the 2021 Fall Meet at 8-1 and 11-1 odds and has Weyhill Road via KD like one of those upsetters. But given favorites’ troubles historically in these spots, the non-favorited logical horse from KD could be Heart N Soul. Mike Maker’s 5 such wins are most of any trainer and consider Stonks via KD if that one draws in from the also-eligible list.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Comments final Wednesday Keeneland

1st Race
3-Big Skippy moves turf to dirt—which he’s bred for—and he exits better company with enough early speed to sit close. 2-Away From Home is one of the more experienced in the field with seven starts, which gives him a foundation for the mile and an eighth plus he ran well at it before. Second start following a layoff and exiting a sprint, he’s likely to be forward. 4-Fight n Ready moves turf to dirt and should appreciate the distance.


2nd Race
Chris Hartman is among the top trainers at the meet going into the last days of racing. Everything he has sent out has been live, and 10-Xylophone is no exception. The mare looks for back to back wins and runs well fresh. Hartman also send out 8-My Good Fortune also in search of 2 straight wins. Powerful one-two punch.


3rd Race
11-Business as Usual adds blinkers and drops in for a claiming price with Tyler Gaffalione teaming up with Chad Brown. Brown is 28% moving maiden special to maiden claiming, and he’s one off the lead for top trainer. 2-Noriskit Nobiscuit drops in class and has been knocking on the door. 6-Standoutsensation stretches out to a route for the first time and is bred to go long.


4th Race
While 7-Double Clutch has never run shorter than a mile, he looms the one to beat by virtue of his class. The Rusty Arnold charge has been gelded and is training well. His record includes a second in stakes company and this is one of the easier groups he’s tackled. 4-Summer in Malibu was second at this level and distance and definitely makes sense. 6-Chiringo adds blinkers and has been competitive at the level and distance.


5th Race
8-Regulatory Risk is a half sibling to several nice ones including Palm Cottage and Where Paradise Lay. The Chad Brown filly was bet down to favorite in her debut and deserves another chance. 5-Yes to Champagne gets more distance for her second start and looks like she’ll appreciate it. 7- Snow Dance exits stakes company and just missed at this distance at Saratoga.


6th Race
6-Ask Amanda won her debut impressively and continues to train well for Graham Motion. 5-Smooth Waves exits graded stakes and can sit close to the pace. 4-Raining Sugar tries the turf for the first time and by Twirling Candy, is bred for it.


7th Race
In a very tough second level allowance, 5-Angkor seems to have ability and versatility and off a third in his first try at this level, should be at his best at 7 furlongs. 7-Nelson Avenue comes off the layoff and gets Johnny Velazquez with some very strong works at Keeneland. 10-Ducale is another with talent coming off over a year away for leading trainer Brad Cox.


8th Race
Very competitive finale with several who could make the grade. 3-Nation is a first timer with a strong, win early pedigree and a solid work pattern. Graham Motion goes to Prat which would suggest ability. 11-Weyhill Road was second at this level and can stalk or sit back and run late. 10-Crossing is improving with each turf start and has a nice late kick.

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa

I never can quite believe it when the final week of the meeting is already here. It seems like just last month it was only September.
Anyway, as is usually the case when playing the horses we've had an up and down meeting--highs and lows if you will, but we've gotten hot the past week and a half and are just one good week away from beating this thing.
This is a challenging card to keep the momentum going, as there are three races in particular where I am gambling twice: 1st that we'll even get the price I want to make my top pick playable and 2nd that the horse actually runs OK! There are a few logical spots on which to lean as well. The toughest balance between those two approaches is in race 6 where I leaned on the morning line favorite because of a likely pace edge.
On the jockey front, Luis Saez has edged away a bit from Tyler Gaffalione, though one could argue that Prat is having the best meeting with that 22% win rate and +19% Horse Racing Nation Impact score (HRNi measures expected wins based on wagering against actual wins). On the trainer side of things, Brad Cox leads the way by wins, but New York-based Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown more than holding their own, and typically have been better bets if you can believe that.


1st Race
You've heard me talk about speed in the opener before right? Well, that goes extra for 1 1/8-mile maiden races, especially since 45% of such races over the past two years have been won in gate-to-wire fashion (via Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool).
I give #5 Unwrapped a big chance to lead all the way here. He drops in class slightly, and while he was completely overmatched in those two-turn turf races 2 and 3 back, he did show some eagerness to engage with leaders. Against this group on dirt it's go time. #2 Away From Home has similar early zip but projects a shorter price so went with the no field five on top.

PICKS: 5-2-4 against 9

2nd Race
#9 Kitten Calls has found new life as a closer since Jerry Jamgotchian claimed daughter of Kitten's Joy for $16,000 in March at Golden Gate Fields and transferred her to Eric Reed. Three consecutive victories at Mountaineer later, and she shows up here against $16,000 starter types. We'll see what she has to run into late, but she'll be coming.

PICKS: 9-4-1-7-10-5 against 8 (complete toss as favorite)

3rd Race
Trainer Norm Casse is having a dream year for bettors, winning at a 25% clip and posting a huge flat-bet profit in the process. Where he does not excel, however, is debuting horses for a tag (1/32) and beyond a mile (0/9). #1 Money Works fits on the Horse Racing Nation debut power ratings scale with four stars, but going to slot her behind #4 Up On the Edge, who should be able to lead this field all the way.

PICKS: 4-1-8-7 against 2 (sorry, Dr.)

4th Race
#15 Judge Davis went 1-for-11 before Racing Hall of Fame trainer Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey III decided to try turf. I say that as if a light bulb went off, and if you just saw this one's 2-0-0-0 record on the sod you might think it didn't, but I like both of his races turf sprinting, and if he draws in here would be the pick. Otherwise we'll take shots with #2 Arabian Prince and #4 Summer in Malibu both at decent price. The former will make one run late while the latter figures to be a little closer in his second career start on turf.

PICKS: 15-2-4-13-14-12

5th Race
Standard boilerplate about unlikely to get the morning line price on a Brad Cox firster who looks good on paper, but that especially seems to be the case when the Horse Racing Nation First-Timer Power Ratings Report deals five stars. This meeting 5-star debuts are 4-for-17 with a +7.5% flat-bet profit.
So it goes with #3 Tarifa, a Godolphin homebred with the coveted five-star rating. #7 Snow Dance ships in from Presque Isle and looks best of those who have run.

PICKS: 3-7

6th Race
#5 Smooth Waves was completely buried at the rail in stakes debut off maiden win last out but managed to shake loose and pass some horses. That's not her game, though, and a better break out of stakes company could make her tough to catch. I picked on top but absolutely would not want anything less than the 8-to-5 morning line. #6 Ask Amanda showed out on debut and should be better stretching out here.

PICKS: 5-6-3-9

7th Race
This one is a doozy so why not shoot for the moon? #3 Night Time is 20-to-1 on the morning line and sports some positive signs shipping in from Presque Isle second off the claim for trainer William Morrey (a 29% move for the conditioner). The performance figures line up with the competition but will the trip? Will have to do a lot of running late but the price is right. #12 Condemn makes second start after missing 17 months of action. That was a race to build off of in Indiana, though, and we're getting a nice price here.

PICKS: 3-12-1-10

8th Race
Scratches will play a big role in what we do here, as if all the also elgibles (#s 13-16) come out then this really lines up for a 9-11 and that's it play to end all the multi-race wagers. Slight preference to #9 Heart N Soul given the pace edge in his first two-turn turf race with Gaffalione keeping the mount.

PICKS: 9-11-13-16-14

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

It's the final week of a fantastic fall meet and the battles for top jockey and trainer are still very much undecided. Good luck today!

1st Race
A chance to start the day with a price in 6-Solomon Vandy. This barn scored in the opener on Sunday and that could signal a strong finish for Team McPeek. This one showed nothing in the comeback but that was a tough group and this is a big drop in class and a chance to get the added distance that he should relish. 9-Rockstar Red goes for first-off-the-claim and has been running well in recent starts. 3-Big Skippy gets a look mainly off the drop in class to maiden-claiming company for connections that do well together here.


2nd Race
5-Choctaw Bingo has one a third of her lifetime starts and she comes off a decent effort over this track and the Maker barn does well in the claiming game. Saez taking the mount adds to the appeal. 7-Dre Me Less has won two her last three and has good speed. 10-Xylophone won last time and has 10 top two finishes. 8-My Good Fortune won last time out, too, but against softer competition.


3rd Race
1-Money Works is a first timer going long but the draw is great and the Norm Casse barn runners have done well and just thinking this one is going to be ready off long, steady pattern of works. 7-When I Look at You was second in her debut and should appreciate the added distance here. 4-Up On the Edge comes off back-to-back runnerup finishes and has the good early speed that helps in races at this distance. 5-Champagne Surprise ban almost half the field in her debut for a barn that does well with second-out runners.


4th Race
10-Donegal Mischief makes his first start for the Cox barn off what may have been a private purchase that followed a runaway debut win. 7-Double Clutch has won on this turf course and may find this company softer than what he's been facing through most of his career. 3-Just Say When makes the second start off a long layoff and gets Prat in the saddle. 5-Town Barber won impressively last time but faces winners here.


5th Race
6-Life Advice showed some speed in the debut before throwing in the towel against a well-regarded winner. This barn has been hot at this meet and with Gafflione taking the mount, I'm betting she runs more like she was expected to go first time out. 3-Tarifa makes her debut for the Cox stable but this is a challenging distance. 8-Regulatory Road makes her second start for Brown and gets Prat in the irons. 5-Yes to Champagne ran fourth in her debut and the Wilkes runners often improve with a race under their belts.


6th Race
5-Smooth Waves was much further back in the graded stake last time and she figures to bounce back against softer company and with a more favorable start. 9-Yatta shipped into Kentucky Downs for a nice win and then ran third in a stake. 6-Ask Amanda is the stable to the '9' and won her debut.


7th Race
7-Nelson Avenue showed promise in her first four starts and then shows very sharp works on this track for a trainer that does well off the break. 5-Angkor posted a 94 Beyer in his debut and this barn has three wins at this meet. 10-Ducale comes from the Cox barn but comes off a long layoff. 12-Condemn posted a solid runnerup finish off a layoff. 1-Vittorio has run some good races but has a lot of second-places.


8th Race
9-Heart N Soul makes his second start off a layoff and he ran a good fourth at Kentucky Downs last time for a trainer who picks his spots well here. 11-Weyhill Road comes off a good runnerup finish to a well-regarded winner. 3-Nation is a first-timer but this barn can certainly have one ready to fire under these conditions. 1-Moesahandful ran against some good fields last winner in New Orleans.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Wednesday October 25, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#12 Condemn – minimum win betting odds 7 to 2
#14 Embrace – minimum win betting odds – 7 to 2
#3 Night Time – minimum win betting odds – 5 to 1
#10 Ducale – minimum win betting odds – 5 to 1
#7 Nelson Avenue – minimum win betting odds – 5 to 1

Condemn and Embrace are both trained by excellent trainer Tom Drury, but Embrace may not run as he is on the also-eligible list. If they both go I will not try to pick between them as both have about the same probability to win. Condemn added blinkers three races back and has almost won all three since, having been victorious in the first two then missing by a neck in the most recent, three weeks ago. One of the wins came at this seven furlong distance and at Keeneland and as the colt is making second start after returning from 17 months off should improve off a field high 106 Equibase Speed Figure, which gives him a big shot of posting the upset as he opens at 12 to 1 odds.

Embrace rallied furiously from fifth and four lengths back to miss by a nose when last seen in June, at this level, and like Condemn he too earned a win at Keeneland at this seven furlong trip previously. His last race 103 figure was rock solid and just like Condemn, there is every reason to believe he can improve upon it. Like Condemn, Embrace opens at double digit odds and should run a lot better than those odds suggest he will.

Night Time has finished first or second in nearly half of his 23 starts, 10 times to be exact, and it might have been 11 if not beaten a nose for second in his last race. He has a win at this distance, gets red hot Tyler Gaffalione to ride, and earned figures from 103 to 110 earlier this year so could be very competitive with his best effort. He too opens at high odds (20/1) so cannot be ignored as a contender.

Ducale returned from 18 months off for Brad Cox, who as his horses ready to run off long layoffs, evidenced by a 25% win rate for the last few years. Ducale won at Keeneland two years ago last week and has run well fresh, so can be expected to be competitive.

Nelson Avenue won in his first race back in August of 2022 and returns from nine months off with good workouts so is another who can be expected to fire with a good effort off the bench. He has only been worse than second one time in four races as well.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim Nelson

Wednesday's card is 8 very competitive races and should prove to be an exciting day. Last week of the meet and the weather looks great.

1st Race
#5 Unwrapped is 2nd off the layoff and on a slight drop in price from his last out. He also comes over as a first time gelding and shows a big 424 Tomlinson number. #2 Away From Home is also making his 2nd off the layoff and he too has a big Tomlinson figure for this distance. He looks tough with these. #9 Rockstar Red is first off the claim. He finished a close 2nd with this level in his last. Top Picks #5, #2 and #9


2nd Race
#5 Choctaw Bingo is first off the claim for the Maker barn. She has a race over the course this meet and she likes this distance. Barn is sharp first off the claim. #8 My Good Fortune is also first off the claim for the Hartman barn who is also very good with this type. Her last was her first off the layoff which she won and this consistent filly could easily land a share here. #7 Dre Me Less will likely show the way and hold on for part. Top Picks #5, #8 and #7


3rd Race
#7 When I Look At You just missed in her debut effort and shows a bullet work for her return try. #2 Noriskit Nobiscuit is in for a tag for the first time and has been improving in each of her 3 starts. The 2 turns here could bring about her best effort. #4 Up On the Edge is another that is getting better with each race and she will likely show the way here. Top Picks #7, #2 and #4


4th Race
#5 Town Barber looked to have found his niche last out going this distance on the grass. A decisive winner breaking his maiden and posting a strong 81 Beyer Speed figure. Look for a quick break and a tough one to catch. #10 Donegal Mischief was an impressive winner at first asking also going this distance on the grass. He has since moved to the Brad Cox barn and if he can overcome the outside post he should be pushing the pace. #6 Chiringo has an experience edge over the top 2 and he will be adding blinkers this time out. Top Picks #5, #10 and #6


5th Race
#7 Snow Dance looked good going 7 furlongs 2 back finishing a close 4th to a full field of salty maidens. The return to the dirt here should help her find her best stride and the wire first. #3 Tarifa is a well bred filly making her first start for the Cox barn. Barn wins with 26% of their first time starters. #8 Regulatory Risk is an expensive yearling purchase making her 2nd start for the Chad Brown barn. Top Picks #7, #3 and #8


6th Race
#10 Mo Sense showed an impressive kick down the lane in her last to finish 4th after coming from 10 lengths back. That being only her 2nd time at the races suggest she improves here especially with the addition of blinkers. #9 Yatta is dropping out of stakes company where she finished a respectable 3rd. Look for her to be in the mix. #5 Smooth Waves lacked a finishing stride after a slow break in the Grade 2 Jessamine at the beginning of the meet. But do note she broke her maiden impressively 2 back and comes over as the early 8-5 favorite. Top Picks #10, #9 and #5


7th Race
#5 Angkor is 3rd off the layoff and looks in good form. He is a consistent sort and is capable with these. #1 Vittorio seldom misses a check and Beyers are strong with this field. He is leaving the blinkers behind for this one and like his chances. #10 Ducale is coming off a long layoff but has been prepared for the return for the formidable Brad Cox barn. His resume is classy and expect a big effort first back. #12 Condemn is 2nd off a long layoff and he just missed last time out. He too has a classy past form and shouldn't be overlooked. Top Picks #5, #1, #10 and #12


8th Race
#1 Moesahandful adds blinkers for his 3rd career start and is trying the grass this time around. Like him to put things together and find the wire first. #3 Nation is a firster for the Graham Motion barn. Works over the grass are solid and look for him to fire at first asking. #9 Heart N Soul should show up sharp off his last effort and land a share. Top Picks #1, #3 and #9

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Hotlist - October 25
Oct. 24, 2023
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (9) Rockstar Red was second last time out and should turn in a strong effort off the Joseph claim. (3) Big Skippy may wake up on dirt. (1) Cuore d’Oro could be a contender in his debut. (5) Unwrapped fits in with this group. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-9.

3rd race – (11) Business as Usual drops into a claimer and looks best in this field. (4) Up On the Edge has speed and may not look back. (10) Liam’s Message should be more competitive in a claimer. (2) Noriskit Nobiscuit should enjoy the longer distance. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-10-11.

5th race – (7) Snow Dance ran in a stakes last time and seems ready for a maiden win. (8) Regulatory Risk was hurt by a wide trip in her debut and should be more competitive here. (12) Thorpedo Anna is worth a look in her debut. (3) Tarifa is another firster who should be considered. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-12.

7th race – (1) Vittorio was second in three of his last four starts and is overdue for a win. (5) Angkor had some trouble when third last time and should be the main rival. (7) Nelson Avenue will be a factor if there’s no rust after a layoff since January. (10) Ducale will also be dangerous despite a layoff. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-7-10. Doubles: 1-5-7-10 with 3-6-9

8th race – (9) Heart N Soul (B) rallied belatedly in his first turf start and could take a big step forward here. (11) Weyhill Road was a good second last time but drew a rough post. (6) As One Does ran wide in a comeback effort and may have needed the race. (3) Nation is an interesting first-time starter Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-9-11.

No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(9) Heart N Soul B, 8/31 8 KEE Rallied belatedly last time

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 25
Oct. 24, 2023
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 9 Rockstar Red T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-2 2 Away From Home M Garcia
SHOW 20-1 10 The Gatekeeper A Quinonez
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Fightn Ready J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 8 Exemplified E Morales
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Unwrapped L Machado

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX


RACE #2 $51,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 8 My Good Fortune C J Lanerie
PLACE 5-1 5 Choctaw Bingo L Saez
SHOW 3-1 7 Dre Me Less M Garcia
WILD CARD 12-1 4 Miss Moon Pie A Achard

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 9 Kitten Calls W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 10 Xylophone F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX


RACE #3 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 UP ON THE EDGE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 4 Up On the Edge A Achard
PLACE 6-1 7 When I Look At You B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW 4-1 2 Noriskit Nobiscuit E Morales
WILD CARD 8-1 8 Wee Bit O Mischief M Chuan

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 1 Money Works R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Liams Message L Saez

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX


RACE #4 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 10 Donegal Mischief T Gaffalione
PLACE 5-1 6 Chiringo L Saez
SHOW 8-1 7 Double Clutch J R Leparoux
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Bench D Cannon

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 14 Western Command T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 12 First Defender F Geroux

* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX


RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 SNOW DANCE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 7 Snow Dance L Saez
PLACE 8-1 14 Circling J R Velazquez
SHOW 9-2 5 Yes to Champagne B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD 5-1 8 Regulatory Risk F Prat

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 1 Streetwhereyoulive L Machado
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Tarifa F Geroux

* EXACTA: 7-14 BOX, 14-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/14 BOX, 5/8/14 BOX


RACE #6 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 5 Smooth Waves T Gaffalione
PLACE 9-2 6 Ask Amanda J R Velazquez
SHOW 3-1 9 Yatta F Prat
WILD CARD 15-1 10 Mo Sense L Saez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 11 Umeboshi F Prat
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Sweetcatherinerose J Rosario

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX


RACE #7 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 RAISE CAIN

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 9 Raise Cain L Saez
PLACE 7-2 10 Ducale F Geroux
SHOW 12-1 12 Condemn J Rosario
WILD CARD 6-1 1 Vittorio M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 3 Night Time T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Angkor R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/12 BOX, 1/10/12 BOX


RACE #8 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 10-1 13 Missionaire F Arrieta
PLACE 5-2 11 Weyhill Road D Cannon
SHOW 8-1 14 Mo Saturdays J Rosario
WILD CARD 15-1 4 Now That Ican Rock R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 3 Nation F Prat
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 9 Heart N Soul T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 13-11 BOX, 11-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 11/13/14 BOX, 4/11/14 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Antonio +4 over Dallas

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Wednesday Free Selection: Sacramento Kings/Utah Jazz over 237 1/2