Thursday 10/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 26
Oct. 25, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 59% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 SHAMAN PRINCESS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 3 Shaman Princess J Lezcano
PLACE 5-2 6 Strictly Taboo D Davis
SHOW 4-1 1A Cerretta J Alvarado
WILD CARD 3-1 9 Cuprite J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1X Bussia L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Watch Over Me K Davis

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX


RACE #2 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 4 Systemic Change M Franco
PLACE 6-5 5 Unbridled Bomber J L Ortiz
SHOW 5-2 1 Uncle Moonlight K Carmouche
WILD CARD 9-2 2 Bold Endeavor J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 3 Daydreaming Boy T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX


RACE #3 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 6 It Wasnt Me D Davis
PLACE 5-2 3 Better Justice I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 3-1 8 Volatility K Carmouche
WILD CARD 3-1 13 Tooshay K Davis

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Keep It Sexy R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Rapid Miss Tapit L J Luzzi

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/8/13 BOX


RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-5 6 Jolly Miss Jill K Carmouche
PLACE 7-2 2 Maggie T McCarthy
SHOW 3-1 5 Exogen J Lezcano
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Dufresne M Olver

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Luna Loca L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 3 Amity Island R R Maragh

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX


RACE #5 $80,000 ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 5 Weekend Rags I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 5-1 15 Supers Lucky Lady M Franco
SHOW 4-1 10 Autumn Glory D Davis
WILD CARD 7-2 2 Royal Dancer K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 14 Spooky Lady R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Latest Edition J Castellano

* EXACTA: 5-15 BOX, 15-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/15 BOX, 2/10/15 BOX


RACE #6 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 12 Spirit Prince D Davis
PLACE 3-1 11 Heartened I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 9-2 1 Houlton I Castillo
WILD CARD 7-2 3 Live to Ride I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 I See You Lookin J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Team Captain J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/11/12 BOX, 1/3/11 BOX


RACE #7 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 ROMAN GODDESS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 6 Roman Goddess J Lezcano
PLACE 3-1 1 Vax J L Ortiz
SHOW 8-1 3 Boss Lady Kim M Olver
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Try It Again I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 8-5 5 Mursal M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Icy Reply L R Rivera Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX


RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 9 One Headlight I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 10-1 1 Gem Mint Ten D Davis
SHOW 9-2 11 Timbuktu J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 9-2 6 Lachaise J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Clear Conscience M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 8 Laurel Valley K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/11 BOX, 1/6/11 BOX


RACE #9 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SWEET LIBERTY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 5 Sweet Liberty J A Davis
PLACE 9-2 12 Two Redheads M Franco
SHOW 7-2 8 Good Morning Kiss J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 10-1 7 Montauk Mystique D Davis

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Strange Fruit K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Sugar and Speights J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/12 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 26
Oct. 26, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $62,500 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 1 Power Seeker F Geroux
PLACE 8-5 4 Dark Vector L Saez
SHOW 9-2 5 B Sudd T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 12-1 7 Runningforcash A Quinonez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Spoiler C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Penzance F Prat

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX


RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 6 Be There T Gaffalione
PLACE 2-1 5 Showdown King L Saez
SHOW 12-1 3 Free Rambling Man G Ashton
WILD CARD 5-1 7 Macho Villa J A Torres

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Harbour Bridge B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Colliers Time C Landeros

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX


RACE #3 $130,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-5 6 Olga Isabel T Gaffalione
PLACE 5-2 5 Your So Sillea J Loveberry
SHOW 10-1 1 Bhoma B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Purr Sea J E Felix

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 2 Asena F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 4 Be Like Water J R Velazquez

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX


RACE #4 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 UP ON THE EDGE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 2 Up On the Edge A Achard
PLACE 12-1 7 Princess Is Olivia F Arrieta
SHOW 7-2 5 Guest of Honor F Geroux
WILD CARD 6-1 12 Classyn Connected J Talamo

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Fluid T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Lou Anna G Ashton

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/7/12 BOX


RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 7 Red River Magic F Arrieta
PLACE 7-2 3 Excellent Question T Gaffalione
SHOW 6-1 15 Insensitive F Arrieta
WILD CARD 9-2 1 Lady Emily Kathryn F Prat

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 12 Lady Dynamo C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Mirari L Saez

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-15 BOX, 15-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/15 BOX, 1/3/15 BOX


RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 COMMISSIONER OSCAR

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 7 Commissioner Oscar A Quinonez
PLACE 5-2 4 Mena T Gaffalione
SHOW 8-1 8 Metronome J Graham
WILD CARD 15-1 2 Ultimate Strike F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 5 Brilliant Man J McKee
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 10 The Rush Is On F Peterson

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX


RACE #7 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 5 Code Omaha F Prat
PLACE 9-2 10 Fortune Seller T Gaffalione
SHOW 6-1 12 Please Advise L Saez
WILD CARD 8-1 7 Copper Missile A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1 Tough Little Nut J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Steeler Mischief R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/10/12 BOX, 7/10/12 BOX


RACE #8 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 8 No Judgment R Bejarano
PLACE 6-1 5 Rocketeer T Gaffalione
SHOW 9-2 1 Charleston F Geroux
WILD CARD 3-1 11 Stop the Press B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Stinger Bee L Machado
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Shakin Loose K J Asmussen

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/5/11 BOX


RACE #9 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 JEFE DE OBRA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 4 Jefe de Obra G Corrales
PLACE 7-2 11 Western Command T Gaffalione
SHOW 3-1 12 First Defender F Geroux
WILD CARD 4-1 2 Vocalize L Saez

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 5 Judge Davis V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Trust Daddy F Prat

* EXACTA: 4-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/11/12 BOX, 2/11/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS
Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

PICKS NOTES
#1 Chantilly Moon She has kind of one-paced form, but she's probably going to get sprinted back by default with several speed types in the mix further outside. Most of those players figure to come back, and she may be plugging away the whole time while saving ground after a wide run last out.
#6 Kagero Wouldn't be surprised to see her bounce back with something a little bit better while getting back around one turn, and the show horse from the last was back to score. Think she has to be the conversation.
#2 Midnight in Prague She's back quickly while cutting the price in half, and she might be the best of the committed pace players. That leaves her in a potentially tough position while drawn inside of the rest of those forward runners, but she does have a chance here if she can just run these off their feet and discourage all the chasing types.
Race Summary Closing Day of one of my very favorite meets out there other than Fair Grounds. Chantilly Moon handled the new footing here pretty well last month, and I think the potential race flow might leave her in a spot to grind in the frame late.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

PICKS NOTES
#6 Santo The recent form has been solid since getting back around two turns, and I'll give him the call to hold that form again here. He moved and couldn't hang late last out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him sustain that run.
#3 Zamboni Warrior Spent a long time thinking about having this guy on top, but he should be covered on all the plays from here. I tend to like Warrior's Reward runners going short just a bit better, but this guy has the kind of running lines that I love while moving around two turns. Tactical, first-jump trip rated just off the pace? Dangerous.
#7 T Rex I like that he's really a true router in a group that has some questionable lines and sprint form, and getting back to something like the September start here might do the trick.
Race Summary Top three in here all have some appeal, but I think Santo and Zamboni Warrior cover most of the boxes I want to check in this race. T Rex can hit hard late, but he doesn't always punch home the best here.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #0

PICKS NOTES
#5 Round of Applause Hoping he'll offer a fair price in a spot where I think you can make a case for several of them, as he has been honest off the claim and proved a good fit with this kind when rallying from off the pace earlier this month. Think he can be a bit closer today.
#4 Colonel Poppy Have been a fan of his overall form this season, and he's a danger here if he can hold his form into this third start of October. Tactical speed should be in the right spot again. No arguments from me.
#6 Starship Empire He has reliable form that fits well in here, but I worry that he might be overbet with a competitive group on paper. Respect that he always shows up and has enough speed to pick a spot early.
Race Summary Put #13 Hashtag No Wonder right on top if he draws in. Round of Applause gets the call in the season finale, but I would be open to looking at the tote board in a race where I could easily consider about eight of them.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS
Laurel Park - Race #2

PICKS NOTES
#6 REDFIRE (7-2) All the ingredients for a first-out victory in a field that could be loaded with talent.
#4 PRINCESS BLAME (9-2) Dueled outside of the favorite before trip sitter passed by in solid debut.
#7 VENOMOUS VIXEN (5-2) Russell firster fired three bullets during a busy work schedule since August.
Race Summary REDFIRE debuts for a barn on a 9-for-28 run with 2-year-olds. She is the daughter of Curlin, who ranks fourth in North America this year with $13.8 million in progeny earnings, and her dam, Stradivarius, ran second in MSW company at Fair Grounds in her debut. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #4

PICKS NOTES
#6 MAGIC MICHAEL (3-1) Looks to upgrade stakes placings into first victory since 2021.
#4 EVERETT’S SONG (8-5) Rallied to win last two allowances on fast track, can use his speed today.
#1 OUTLIER (7-2) Starts at eighth track in last six months, nearing a half million in earnings.
Race Summary MAGIC MICHAEL, multiple stakes-placed at this distance and a Grade 3 winner going longer, hopped at the break and finished out of the money in a well-bet comeback off a year layoff. He should be in close striking range with an alert start in a field void of quality speed. Bet to win and place.
Laurel Park - Race #6

PICKS NOTES
#8 GOODTOBEIRISH (10-1) Debuted on turf, worked bullet on main track, presumably with blinkers on.
#1 SENATOR KELLY (9-5) Troubled starts magnified by rail draw, drops in second start off shelf.
#9 BRIDGE TO SUCCESS (2-1) Hard-ridden to keep up with dueling leaders, gets class relief.
Race Summary GOODTOBEIRISH, one of several class-droppers in here, stepped it up a notch with a :48-1/5 workout from the gate since his debut. His dam wad 14/3-6-2 and a $182k earner, though both stakes-placed showings were on turf. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Syracuse/Virginia Tech Over 47 Points

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Free play from Totals4U

Thursday Free Selection: Anaheim Ducks/Boston Bruins under 6

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Free play from #1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Montreal Canadiens - 130

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Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Minnesota Wild - 135

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Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Thursday
LA LAKERS

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Free play from Tim Donaghy

Tim Donaghy Free Play for Thursday:
Take the Carolina Hurricanes (NHL)

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Free play from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, October 26, 2023
CFB
114. Georgia Southern -1 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

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Free play from Platinum Plays


Your Free Pick: the Edmonton Oilers +105 over NY Rangers

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Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Thursday:Take PHILADELPHIA/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 224.5

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Free play from Huddle Up Sports

Thursday Free Play
Phoenix +2 NBA

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Free play from Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 10/26/23 NHL MONTREAL PL