Saturday 10/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 5
6	6	ARMYCAPTIN HANOVER	4/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 9	484.16
1	1	WINE THIRTY	8/1	Hennessy, Michael R - 16	479.93
5	5	TIEMPO HANOVER	3/1	Campbell, J Brandon - 25	454.07
2	2	ICY BLUE SCOOTER	3/2	Sobey, Nathan K - 20	452.54
4	4	WHIPLASH SMILE	6/1	Miller, Thomas Michael - 8	419.15
3	3	OUTLAW GUNSABLAZIN	10/1	Kelly, David A - 20	386.30

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 1:36 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$6000 - UNITED STATES HARNESS DRIVERS CLUB NON WINNERS $1,501

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 MONEYORROSES 8/5
# 5 INFINITE WARRIOR 3/1
# 6 TEXAS TERROR N 4/1

MONEYORROSES unquestionably is tough to overlook as the entrant to beat in this event. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 78 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Racing well, recorded a clear-cut TrackMaster Speed Rating in his last affair (72). Recent rankings for the driver - 22 percent win - make this gelding a top pick in the bunch. INFINITE WARRIOR - Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 83 speed fig. Clearly the class of the group of horses with an average rating of 83. A nice selection. TEXAS TERROR N - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win percentage. Some trainers just fit better with certain entrants. That seems to be the case in this race with Erzene. A very good wager.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 9:39 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$8000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W OF 3 RACES OR $30000. LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 TOP SHELF 8/5
# 1 MISS DEW WRITE 4/1
# 9 BETTERNOTMACHME 5/2

TOP SHELF has a competitive shot to take this contest. Overall ratings appear good. Can't throw out at this point. This contender will have to be a bet, based on the very good driver/trainer win figure. Extremely profitable driver-handler match, with a 33 return on investment when working with one another. MISS DEW WRITE - The panel of smart guys will always toss in a interesting entrant from the 1 hole here at Flamboro Downs, always worth a look. BETTERNOTMACHME - This race horse may have some hidden form, a top prize would be a pleasant surprise. That 72 TrackMaster speed fig clocked in the most recent race puts this solid standardbred in the mix in this one.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
3	3	FOCUS POCUS	5/2	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 18	524.65
8	8	MAX	10/1	Warren, Ridge - 9	514.33
2	2	ROBBIE PEV	12/1	Kakaley, Matt - 21	513.55
5	5	BLENHEIM	3/1	Napolitano, Anthony - 16	503.77
4	4	MYSTICAL WYNN	6/1	Miller, Marcus - 10	492.65
1	1	ON THE HOUSE	4/1	Buter, Tyler - 16	475.42
7	7	YES	9/2	Allard, Simon - 14	451.22
6	6	STAR TRACK HANOVER	15/1	Pantaleano, Jim - 10	446.09

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$5500 - FILLIES & MARES $6000 CLAIMING

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 GO CLARA GO 9/5
# 5 SWEET PINK 5/2
# 7 SUDDEN CHANGE N 9/2

All signs point to GO CLARA GO for the pick. The group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This solid standardbred will unlock our way to a nice win. This standardbred looks very good considering the high class ratings. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. Can't forget the connections here, a 26 winning percent, one of the top at getting into the winners circle. SWEET PINK - Earned a 76 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate race here should get the trip to the winner's circle here. SUDDEN CHANGE N - Davis will be looking to dominate this time, has been winning a lot most recently. Win percentage this last month is a sparkling 22. The brain trust noted a huge event out of this fine animal last time. Looking for a repeat of that to score.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Rosecroft Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
5	5	ILDERTON AM	6/1	Walters, Justin - 12	493.84
6	6	MITTNITE DELIGHT	7/2	Porter, Trae - 16	492.82
2	2	FULL SEND	9/2	Foster, Russell - 19	478.26
1	1	TAPPED TEEN	4/1	Roberts, Jonathan - 22	476.01
9	9	DERBY DOG HANOVER	3/1	Davis, Eric - 9	470.09
7	7	TRY LINE	6/1	Thompson, Jason - 15	461.62
4	4	DOCDOR MICKEY	8/1	Roglitz, Jacob - 2	445.61
3	3	RUSTY'S HOUDINI	12/1	Milby, Frank - 11	431.37
8	8	BUCKEYE N	10/1	Moyer, Jared - 8	431.00

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 28

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	7 Born Flawless 5 City of Clouds 4 Jewelstown	7 Born Flawless 8 Dreaming of Smarty 5 City of Clouds	7 Born Flawless 6 Roman Giant 8 Dreaming of Smarty	7 Born Flawless 8 Dreaming of Smarty 2 Bruce Banner	4 Jewelstown 7 Born Flawless 8 Dreaming of Smarty
2	3 Raguel 6 Transcendental 8 Publius	8 Publius 3 Raguel 7 Lat Long	5 J Bird Time 3 Raguel 7 Lat Long	2 Disattached 7 Lat Long 8 Publius	8 Publius 7 Lat Long 5 J Bird Time
3	4 Bromley 6 King Ice 3 Dubyuhnell	3 Dubyuhnell 4 Bromley 5 Denington	2 Promise Me a Ride 6 King Ice 4 Bromley	4 Bromley 7 Curly Jack 5 Denington	7 Curly Jack 6 King Ice 2 Promise Me a Ride
4	4 Foxfire 12 Howl 10 Insensitive	12 Howl 4 Foxfire 1 Musical Prayer	5 Rubia 7 Bourbon to Blame 12 Howl	12 Howl 4 Foxfire 7 Bourbon to Blame	5 Rubia 4 Foxfire 9 Crushed Ice
5	11 Truly Quality 9 Clever Thought 8 Jungfrau	9 Clever Thought 8 Jungfrau 5 Hilliard	11 Truly Quality 5 Hilliard 9 Clever Thought	9 Clever Thought 8 Jungfrau 11 Truly Quality	9 Clever Thought 11 Truly Quality 3 Spirit Maker
6	8 Maycocks Bay 1 Normandy Hero 2 Valentine Candy	7 Cowes 3 Royal Slipper 1 Normandy Hero	3 Royal Slipper 2 Valentine Candy 1 Normandy Hero	7 Cowes 5 Patriot Spirit 1 Normandy Hero	4 Glengarry 5 Patriot Spirit 1 Normandy Hero
7	2 Traegar 9 O Besos 10 Caddo River	2 Traegar 8 Top Gunner 1 Fortin Hill	1 Fortin Hill 2 Traegar 4 Chasing Time	1 Fortin Hill 9 O Besos 7 Pro Oxidant	4 Chasing Time 8 Top Gunner 2 Traegar
8	9 More Than Looks 4 Smokey Mandate 3 Dude N Colorado (GB)	1 Talk of the Nation 9 More Than Looks 4 Smokey Mandate	9 More Than Looks 5 Mo Stash 1 Talk of the Nation	4 Smokey Mandate 1 Talk of the Nation 10 Appraise (IRE)	10 Appraise (IRE) 9 More Than Looks 5 Mo Stash
9	6 Speed Bias 1 Film Star 8 Law Professor	11 Dash Attack 1 Film Star 10 Trademark	7 Il Miracolo 9 O'Connor (CHI) 8 Law Professor	10 Trademark 12 Best Actor 9 O'Connor (CHI)	8 Law Professor 10 Trademark 3 King Fury
10	12 Mo Caliente 4 Time Song 2 Sheriff Joe	2 Sheriff Joe 5 Deadpan 8 Act of Mutiny	4 Time Song 8 Act of Mutiny 11 Vivaldi	8 Act of Mutiny 4 Time Song 5 Deadpan	4 Time Song 11 Vivaldi 12 Mo Caliente

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Enjoy closing day of the Fall Meet at Keeneland! We can't wait to see you all back in the spring!

1st Race
7-5-4

#7 Born Flawless six another win after winning his last race, and was claimed by Tom Amoss who's had great success This meet at Keeneland with horses that were claimed in their most recent run. #5 City of Clouds comes in from Thistledown in Ohio and drops in class with some solid form. #4 Jewelstown claim last time out by trainer, Steve Asmussen, and his son Keith rides today. Should move up off the claim.


2nd Race
3-6-8

#3 Raguel from a far outside post position it could never get over on debut and was the beaten favorite that day. will run better than eight to one in the morning Lyne suggests. #6 Transcendental makes his debut today and his bread for the turf and his trained by Jonathon Thomas who's good with debut runners. #8 Publius ran well on debut from a wide post in the same race as the number three horse that's in this race. another horse with upside if you're willing to forgive his only start.


3rd Race
4-6-3

#4 Bromley should appreciate this longer distance today and stay at the trip and outrun his 8 to 1 morning line. #6 King Ice will come flying late and will love the added distance. #3 Dubyuhnell had some brilliant races last year but his last two races earlier in the year were nothing close to that and he comes into this race off of a seven month layoff. He may get over bet and he has some serious questions to answer today.


4th Race
4-12-10

#4 Foxfire ran very well on debut, and more of that will go along way today against this group of competition. #12 Howl day with some fast workouts coming into this race for trainer Brad Cox, another one prime to outrun the 8 to 1 morning line. #10 Insensitive makes the second start of the meet here at Keeneland and his last he was the beaten favorite running a good second. You have to respect.



5th Race
11-9-8

#11 Truly Quality is four for four in the money with a win two starts back and a recent good run at Kentucky Downs. Absolutely the one to beat in my mind in this race. #9 Clever Thought exits stakes company which might make him the favorite. I do think he's capable, but may get overplayed in the end. #8 Jungfrau needs to break better, and if he does, could put together a much better effort today at a longer distance than his last race.



6th Race
8-1-2

#8 Maycocks Bay ran a giant race his most recent start on a wet track and even prior to that. Ran a good second on a fast track. I think he's more than capable with this outside draw with the drawing post one. Who is #1 Normandy Hero who draws that tough post but has one from post one and his last race which came on October 7 right here at Keeneland this meeting. But this is a step up in competition no question. #2 Valentine Candy was also in that same race on October 7 here at Keeneland and ran a good second. More than capable off of that tough hard, fought effort, he put forth.


7th Race
2-9-10

#2 Traeger has not raced in nine months but comes in from Southern California and I don't think he would be here at Keeneland if he wasn't ready to go off the layoff and he's run some very big races in his career top horses in Southern California. #9 O Besos cut back in distance, and will run on late, especially at the seven furlong distance. I know the one prime to outrun the 10 to 1 morning line odds put next to him. #10 Caddo River has made over $800,000 and his his career and I think the cutback and distance will really help him today.


8th Race
9-4-3

#9 More Than Looks might be the most likely winner of the day and that's crazy to say considering this is the featured race at Keeneland on closing day. But his win last time out of Churchill Downs was so I catching an impressive. It's hard to think that if he can replicate that kind of a run that he loses this race. #4 Smokey Mandate was second behind the horse mentioned above in that common race, so has to be respected, but has a lot to improve upon, in order to win, but more than capable of finishing in the top three. #3 Dude N Colorado is battle, tested in stakes Company, and one stake back in March at Gulfstream Park. Should be part of the pace, which might be very fast today if everyone stays true to form, and even further the case to be made for #9 More Than Looks.


9th Race
6-1-8

#6 Speed Bias has a much bigger chance than his 20 to 1 morning line suggests. He nearly won the grade 3 Pimlico special back in the spring and he's running against some of the best horses in the older handicap division this year. I've like this horse since I saw him in Maryland, in grade 3 event and I like him even more because he should be a good price. #1 Film Star might be the now horse versus this group and he does have a win here at Keeneland and he's got good speed from the inside. #8 Law Professor should just track off the pace which will have them in a good spot at this 1 mile and 1/8 distance.



10th Race
12-4-2

#12 Mo Caliente ran much better in his most recent race, and that was the first time he went long and the first time he wore blinkers. #4 Time Song moves over to dirt for the first time which these connections have had good success with pedigree like this on the turf after failed dirt tries. #2 Sheriff Joe comes out of a very live race at Kentucky Downs, and it has to be respected as he tries turf for the second time in his young career.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 28, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Mandatory payouts in all wagering pools will be in play on closing day of the Fall Meet as the stakes schedule includes the Grade 2 Fayette, the Grade 3 Bryan Station and the Bowman Mill Stakes. The Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be on Races 6,8,10.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione started slow opening weekend, but has finished with an absolute flourish, winning 4 races Thursday and 3 more on Friday to all but clinch the leading rider title. Brad Cox has poured it on closing week to secure the trainer crown.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 40% chance of showers is in the forecast with high temps in the upper 60s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Dual-condition claimers open the early pick five at 7 furlongs on dirt. Favorites won 12 of 25 claiming races at the current meet coming into Friday Of the 6 dual-condition claimers this season (for non-winners of 3 lifetime or open to any 3-year-old), wins have been split with Churchill and Horseshoe Indianapolis each accounting for 2. Of the 16 claiming sprints this meet, only 4 were adding distance and 3 of 4 at this trip ran 7F plus last time. Born Flawless comes out of a 7F heat for a Tom Amoss barn whose 3 wins at the meet include 2 dirt sprints.


2nd Race
Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to start the early pick four. Also note Race 10 will be a split division of this race. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. A trends bomb fit could be the only stretch-out horses here in J Bird Time for a Dale Romans barn that typically does well at Kee Fall with 2YOs routing. First-time starters Disattached and Transcendental offer historical appeal. Certainly respect the third by Lat Long here Oct. 14 on dirt vs. Kentucky Derby winner Mage’s impressive kid brother Dornoch. Raguel goes for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race here Friday.


3rd Race
Allowance performers square off at 1-1/8 miles on dirt. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Early speed has been effective this meet in the 7 previous races at 9F dirt, an average winner just a length off the lead after the opening half-mile. Promise Me a Ride looks to be potential controlling speed for the meet’s runaway leading trainer brad Cox. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD runners hold a 4-1 edge in route ALW races from just 8 offered, good news for Bromley and Denington (the latter for trainer Kenny McPeek, who won a similar race here Friday).


4th Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters battle 6 furlongs. Seven of 8 such races at the meet have been won by horses 4-1 or less, including 4 favorites after Friday’s opener. Seven exited preps in Kentucky (including a run-back at the meet winner Friday, others split evenly 2 each from Churchill, Ellis & Kentucky Downs). Debut runners account for only 3 of 56 elder MSW races on dirt in Fall Meets over the years and just 1 since 2017 (Bourbon to Blame and Howl are rookies here of interest, but trying to buck a lot of history). Insensitive and Crushed Ice run back second time at the Fall Meet in a rematch, while the heating-up Kenny McPeek barn sends out CD-prepped Kid’s Last Laugh, while logical CD alumni include Foxfire and Musical Prayer. Oaklawn layoff runner Rubia has trained nicely on cue for the return and appears well-meant for Steve Asmussen. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Good options abound in this race.


5th Race
The pick six and Keeneland Turf Pick Three kick off with a 1-3/16 miles allowance on grass. We’ve only had 19 such trips at this distance in Fall Meets during the 17 years of our database, including Friday’s offering. Only 2 winners were on the front end with two-thirds of winners 2-6 lengths back after the first half-mile (13-1 shot Callie’s Grit wired the field Friday to buck that trend). Kentucky Downs preppers own 13 of the 22 turf allowance wins after Callie’s Grit won Friday. That’s good news for KD alumni Spirit Maker, Hilliard, Our Dream Rye’d, Clever Thought and Truly Quality. Of those 19 winners, 14 last prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer – which crosses over with the final 4 of those KD alumni listed. The strength of this race comes from that quartet.


6th Race
The 6-furlong $200,000 Bowman Mill Stakes for 2-year-olds opens the late pick five. Like its sister race, the Myrtlewood Stakes run on Friday, the Bowman Mill joined the stakes schedule in 2021 and will be renewed for a third time. Wesley Ward won the inaugural with Nakatomi and will try for a second on the strength of sharp opening day local winner Royal Slipper, a filly meeting the boys. She was the only front-running winner on the card Oct. 6, running nearly a full second faster than a similar 2YO MSW on the card. Wire-to-wire winners have been lighter than expected in 6F races this meet, but the average winner is 1.1 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile, slightly farther back than historical Fall Meet trends. Steve Asmussen-Ricardo Santana team with Valentina Candy and already have a very sharp 2YO 6F winner at the meet in Booth.


7th Race
A stakes-caliber allowance sprint at 7 furlongs leads off the late pick four. We’ve had 19 dirt ALW races at the meet, favorites winning 7 and only 1 winner reaching double-digit odds. Churchill and Saratoga preppers have dueled for wins with 6 each, but CD-prepped O Besos and Caddo River are the only reps of either venue. Only 4 of the 22 races at 7F were won by horses cutting back in distance from their last start like the pair of CD horses attempt. Fortin Hill is a Keeneland horse-for-course to watch, an eye-catching winner here in the ’23 Spring Meet when beating return rival Chasing Time. Look to early pace here as 19 of 22 races this Fall Meet at 7F were won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 1 length back at that point).


8th Race
The Grade 3 $300,000 Bryan Station Stakes serves as middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This race has had a sporadic history in the Fall Meet at Keeneland, but is in its third straight year since returning in 2021. Trainers Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher won this race in its former iteration back in 2007 and 2008 and look to reconnect the dots with Gigante and Dude N Colorado, respectively. So far this Fall Meet, the 11 turf stakes have produced an average winner just under 8-1 odds with as many 11-1 plus winners (3) as favorites (3). This meet’s 11 turf stakes have been won by 10 different jockeys and 10 different trainers, Chad Brown (Appraise) and Joel Rosiaro (Gigante) becoming the first to double up after Friday’s Valley View. Flavien Prat has been the dominant turf jockey at the meet with 9 grass wins and teams with Pride of the Nile. Turf miles have only been won once in 11 tries this meet by the half-mile leader, but the average winner is just 2-2/4 lengths back at that point, so look for stalkers.


9th Race
Dirt runners clash over 1-1/8 miles in the featured Grade 2 $350,000 Fayette Stakes. This has been a formful race since returning to dirt in 2014, particularly of late with 4 of its last 5 winners at 8-5 or less odds. No winner has topped 8-1 since 2014. The 9 winners have come from Churchill (6) and Saratoga (3) with 6 of those 9 prepping at 1-1/8 miles. Happy American and Trademark at the CD alumni exiting 9F races and fit the profile nicely. Front-runners have had exceptional success here with an average winner less than a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile (5 straight have been within 1 length of the front at that point). From a handicapping standpoint, I love the reunion between Il MIracolo and jockey Luis Saez, who has ridden that one to his best finishes. King Fury ran fourth in this race last year for a Kenny McPeek barn that has caught a hot streak at the tail end of this Fall Meet after a terribly slow start. King Fury, a local winner, is out of 2014 Raven Run winner Taris. Note: Film Star is expected to scratch and run in New York.


10th Race
Two-year-old turf maiden special weights route over 1-1/16 miles to wrap the Fall Meet and the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. This is a split division of Race 2. We’ve had 75 Fall Meet two-year-old turf MSW routes over the years coming into Saturday, and this is a big-time longshot division. The average winner has been 9.5-to-1 with more winners (23) over 10-1 than favorites (22). Of those 22 longshot winners, 16 of them were either first-time starters or sprinters stretching out – so the public has overemphasized route experience in these. Kentucky Downs preppers are slightly best, 19-16-13 in victories, over first-timers and Churchill preppers. The average winner in these races is about 2-3/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, about a half-length closer to the front than all Keeneland turf routes in our database. Time Song and Act of Mutiny both have stretch-out appeal in this race for Pletcher and McGaughey barns that have had good meets with 2YOs and turf runners, respectively. First-timers Trikari and Domingo also interest, the latter for a Brendan Walsh barn that won a similar race to this one here on Friday. Chad Brown won Friday's similar other division and looks to score the nightcap in back-to-back days, this time with Vivaldi.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Comments for closing day Keeneland Saturday

1st Race
Closing day kicks off with a high priced conditioned claiming race, and the race falls to two top contenders, although there could be some surprises. 7-Born Flawless for Tom Amoss seeks his second straight win and races off the claim for a trainer who excels at the claiming game. Small bump up in class but definitely not insurmountable, the colt will likely sit close. 8-Dreaming of Smarty also races off the claim for a sharp claiming outfit. Trainer Michael Pino strikes at better than 23% off the claim, and this sophomore gets Luis Saez and was much the best at Parx in a lesser condition. Outside speed makes for quite a contest, but if the two outside top contenders go too quickly early, it sets up for a surprise.


2nd Race
2-Distached makes his debut for Todd Pletcher, and the son of Blame has been working for a while in preparation. Well bred for both turf and distance, he is one of several interesting first time starters. Of those who have a race or two under their belts, 7-Lat Long has had two useful efforts on the dirt including a Keeneland route in a particularly tough maiden field. The colt has a nice pedigree for the grass, and Kenny McPeek notched a win yesterday, with jockey BJ Hernandez, Jr. bringing home two scores. 8-Publius debuted at Kentucky Downs and closed well going a mile. The son of Constitution should appreciate the distance and the trainer/jockey combo of Cox and Gaffalione represent the leaders for the fall meet.


3rd Race
4-Bromley makes his second start following a layoff and seems to have a lot of talent. The colt put together back to back wins to start his career and was third stakes company in the spring before getting time away, with that third coming at a distance of ground. Look for him to sit an ideal stalking trip under Hall of Fame John Velazquez. 7-Curly Jack makes his first start since May and is another who dabbled in stakes company with some success. The winner of last fall's grade 3 Iroquois has failed to repeat his top form as a three-year-old but he starts anew with a drop in class and perhaps the opportunity to take advantage of a lack of early speed. 5-Denington exits stakes company and can come running late but may not get the ideal set up pace-wise.


4th Race
Yet another wide open maiden race full of interesting pedigrees and top connections. Tab the tote early for clues although 12-Howl is likely to get support at the windows as the daughter of good young sire Practical Joke races for top trainer Brad Cox and shows some very fast works in the a.m. 4-Foxfire has the benefit of a race in which she pressed a fast pace and held on for second for Cherie DeVaux who has been on a good roll nationally. 1-Musical Prayer was third in the same race after a less than smooth start. She lands in a tricky rail post but should improve with Jose Ortiz picking up the ride.


5th Race
Cox appears loaded in race 5 with 8-Jungfrau, who seems to be crying out for this 1-3/16 turf marathon. The late running gelding makes his second start since coming to Cox's barn and has run well despite difficult starts in his last few tries. 9-Clever Thought is lightly raced but consistent and exits graded stakes company. Prior to that race, the colt was second at this same level, and he's bred well for the longer distance. 11-Truly Quality is another who should love the distance as he actually ran well going farther in his most recent try at Kentucky Downs. The Jonathan Thomas runner appears a true stayer.


6th Race
In the first of out closing day stakes, 7-Cowes is an interesting price play moving turf to dirt for Wayne Catalano. The colt has a good pedigree for either surface, and he's one of the few in the group who seems capable of running from off the pace rather than needing the lead. 5-Patriot Spirit is another who can possibly stalk rather than lead, and he exits graded stakes. 1-Normandy Hero won here at Keeneland opening weekend and draws the rail seeking his third lifetime win.


7th Race
1-Fortin Hill likes Keeneland and runs well fresh. Look for the 7-year-old to sit a close up trip under Johnny Velazquez for his first start since July. 9-O Besos exits graded stakes company and can run on late if there's a speed melt down. 7-Pro Oxidant makes his first start since August and has run well fresh, with the ability to sit close and run on.


8th Race
With the expectation that More Than Looks skips this race in favor of the Breeders' Cup, the race opens the door for hard trying 4-Smokey Mandate. The gelding has run two solid races in stakes company at high odds and finally figures as one of the top contenders. The versatile Mike Maker runner can lead or stalk depending on what's needed. 1-Talk of the Nation looks for two straight stakes wins for Shug McGaughey with Jose Ortiz flying in to ride. The colt just missed in the grade 3 Manila back in July and can sit close from the inside post. 10-Appraise got the worst of things so far as the post draw is concerned, but with the way Chad Brown's horses have been performing--especially on grass--maybe it's only fair that his runners be penalized. In all seriousness, the colt is first or second in four of 10 starts and appears to have a lot of ability.


9th Race
10-Trademark has an affinity for Keeneland's track and he just missed in the grade 2 Lukas Classic behind Breeders' Cup Classic bound Clapton. The ultra consistent son of Upstart races for Vicki Oliver, whose runners have been performing terrifically all meet long. 12-Best Actor didn't have much luck with the draw, but the son of Flatter moves up off a win and has enough speed to lead but is equally effective sitting off the pace. Leave it to one of the best in the game, Flavien Prat, to figure out a trip from the tricky 12 hole for top trainer Cox.8-Law Professor has run his best races on non-fast tracks. If the skies open up, his chances definitely improve, and regardless, the earner of close to $1 million fits with these following a third in the grade 2 Woodward behind Zandon.


10th Race
8-Act of Mutiny for Shut McGaughey stretches out and is showing improvement with each start. 4-Time Song tries the turf for the first time and is bred to handle it. 5-Deadpan showed speed in his debut before tiring to third. If he gets loose on the lead he will be very tough, and regardless, he appears a top contender.

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

Three stakes races close out a wonderful fall meet and I think there are some good chances to hit a price or two. Good luck!

1st Race
7-Born Flawless showed big improvement last time out and the Amoss barn has had a good fall meet. 8-Dreaming of Smarty goes for a barn that has good numbers with new claims and Saez rides. 5-City of Clouds runs in claiming company for the first time.


2nd Race
8-Publius ran well in a tough debut at Kentucky Downs and the Cox barn has excellent stats with horses making their second start. Gafflione taking the mount adds to the appeal. 3-Raguel comes out of the same race and was the betting favorite so we'll give this one another chance. 7-Lat Long should benefit from that race over the track two weeks ago. 2-Disattached is a first-timer from the Pletcher barn that brought some talented two-year olds to this meet.


3rd Race
3-Dubyuhnell won a grade two stake last December and this barn can get them ready off a layoff. 4-Bromley ran well in his comeback race and if he makes a forward move, he'll be right there. 5-Denington has kept good company and should be finishing strong. 2-Promise Me a Ride romped at Ellis two starts back with a strong Beyer number.


4th Race
12-Howl makes his debut for the Cox barn and she's been working up a storm for a long time. Prat showing up to ride is a big plus. 4-Foxfire finished strong in her debut and gets Rosario to ride for the DeVeaux barn. 1-Musical Prayer ran well behind Foxfire last time out.


5th Race
9-Clever Thought has turned in a pair of strong efforts off a break and he has experience at long distances. 8-Jungfrau makes his second start for the Cox barn and should like the added distance he gets here. 5-Hilliard comes his best two races for the Maker barn and this one is actually cutting back from a mile-and-five-sixteenths.


6th Race
In the Bowman Mill Stakes, I'm betting 7-Cowes will handle the surface switch just fine and maybe win this race at a bit of a price. He's a son of Uncle Mo so the dirt should be just fine and this one was bet heavily in both starts and ran well. 3-Royal Slipper was a good-looking winner on opening day of this meet and he's definitely the one to beat. 1-Normandy Hero also won on opening weekend and posted his best Beyer figure. 2-Valentine Candy ran second to Normany Hero in that race here.


7th Race
2-Traegar won his last two in a row but he has not raced since January. Still, this barn has been on fire out west and it's noteworthy that a former leading rider in southern California, Flavien Prat, takes the mount. 8-Top Gunner didn't run much in the stake here on opening weekend but he has back class and he did have a bad start last time. 1-Fortin Hill won here in the spring at this distance. 4-Chasing Time posted a 97 Beyer three starts back and that would make him competitive in this spot.


8th Race
The grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes looks like a two-horse race to me and I am betting that 1-Talk of the Nation will turn the tables on 9-More Than Looks. The former had a breakthrough race last time at Kentucky Downs with a best Beyer of 97 and I like that Jose Ortiz comes in to keep the mount on this horse that has been highly-touted for quite awhile. More Than Looks comes off a 101 Beyer figure and has four wins from seven starts so she'll be hard to beat. If you want to go deeper, 4-Smokey Mandate has competed well against the top two but couldn't beat them.


9th Race
The final stake of the fall meet is the grade 2 Hagyard Fayette and it's a well-matched group that presents quite a handicapping challenge. 11-Dash Attack has flashed some promise in the past but in that last race, it looks like he may have had a breakout performance, hitting 101 on the Beyer scale and doing it in a visually impressive manner. The sharp work two weeks ago only serves to validate the confidence and a great "speed rider" like Johnny V taking the mount adds to the appeal. 1-Film Star has two wins and a second-place finish in his last three starts and has won here. 10-Trademark ran a winning race last time out and has steadily improved. 12-Best Actor posted a 97 Beyer last time out for the Cox barn.


10th Race
2-Sheriff Joe finally got to do what I think he wants to do--run long on the turf--and he ran third from a wide post on a day when you needed to be inside. Rosario is a great finishing rider and that will help this one. 5-Deadpan finished third in his debut, behind a horse pointing to the Breeders' Cup. 8-Act of Mutiny improved in his second start when moving to grass and the runnerup came back to win a stake. 9-Veracruzin has taken money in every start so I don't want to miss out when he finally runs to expectations and that's why I'll have this one on the late pick four ticket. 11-Vivaldi beat half the field in a tough race in the debut.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Saturday October 28, 2023
Race 6 at Keeneland
Post Time 3:40 p.m. eastern time
Bowman Mill Stakes
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#3 Royal Slipper – minimum win betting odds 3 to 2
#1 Normandy Hero – minimum win betting odds – 2 to 1
Exacta: Box 3, 1

Royal Slipper won most impressively in her career debut on October 6 (opening weekend) here at Keeneland and can earn her second win in as many starts, adding to trainer Wesley Ward’s tremendous record with two year olds over the past few years. Ward won this race two years ago with Nakatomi and wins at an extraordinarily high 30% clip overall in dirt sprints (over the past three years) as well as 27% with second time starters and 31% when using jockey Joel Rosario as is the case here. Royal Slipper is a half-sister (same Dam) to Bast, who won the 2019 Del Mar Debutante in only the second start of her career, then won three other stakes races before retiring. In her debut, Royal Slipper was away like a rocket from the rail and was never challenged as she was ridden out to an easy win. She should run even better in her second career start and is the one to catch, and to beat, in this race and as a filly against males, which is no concern as two year old females can be more mature than their male counterparts, she gets in a few pounds lighter than her opponents, which may offer an additional edge.

Normandy Hero also returns for his second start at the Keeneland fall meeting, also off a win just like Royal Slipper. He had won in August in his second career start leading from start to finish, but in that last race three weeks ago he relaxed in fourth in the early stages then took over from the rail in the stretch to draw off. He could run even better here and if Royal Slipper can’t lead from start to finish, Normandy Hero has the highest probability among the rest to get up late in the race and win.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim Nelson

Saturday's card features the $200K Bowman Mill, The Grade 3 Bryan Station and The Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette.

1st Race
#4 Jewelstown is first off the claim for the Asmussen barn and barn gets 18% winners with this type. A gelding by Speightstown should appreciate the distance and looks like he has found the right spot. #7 Born Flawless is also first off the claim and he brings the early speed. He posted a big 83 Beyer Speed figure last out and is a definite contender. #8 Dreaming of Smarty is another first off the claim. He won his last by 9 lengths and comes over as the early 8-5 favorite. Top Picks #4, #7 and #8


2nd Race
#8 Publius broke late in his debut and showed a lot of courage down the lane at Kentucky Downs to land a 3rd place finish. Look for him to return here sharp and appreciate the Keeneland grass. #7 Lat Long is moving to the turf course after a couple of 3rd place finishes with similar on the dirt. His Beyers figures, although on dirt, are strong for this field. #5 J Bird Time has a strong Tomlinson number for this distance on the grass and look for him to improve in his 2nd career start. Top Picks #8, #7 and #5


3rd Race
#7 Curly Jack is first off the layoff but brings an impressive resume for this field. Barn gets 19% winners first back and like that Morales stays in the irons. #6 King Ice seldom misses a check and exits a daylight win with stakes company. He brings a late kick that could prove effective down the lane. #2 Promise Me a Ride will likely be on or near the lead here. He should stay on for part. Top Picks #7, #6 and #2


4th Race
#5 Rubia has a couple of races under her belt and looks to be an improving sort. She has enough early foot to get involved early and looks capable with these. #4 Foxfire landed a 2nd place finish in her first start and expect her to be a contender with these. #9 Crushed Ice has a race over the course this meet where she finished 3rd. She adds blinkers for this one. Top Picks #5, #4 and #9


5th Race
#9 Clever Thought is 3rd off the layoff and dropping out of Graded Stakes company. He also backs up in distance a bit and like him for the win here. #11 Truly Quality turned a strong performance last out in his first off the layoff. A bit of a rough trip breaking form the outside post he managed a 3rd place finish. He looks tough in here. #3 Spirit Maker has been working well preparing for this one and the added distance could prove to his liking. Top Picks #9, #11 and #3


6th Race
#4 Glengarry won his last in fine fashion while setting very fast fractions. A repeat effort of that one will make him tough to catch here. #5 Patriot Spirit also set fast fractions in his last but tired going the mile distance. He will surely test the pace. #1 Normandy Hero has a win over the track this meet and like that he sat off the fast pace in that one and closed for the win. The same scenario is possible here. Top Picks #4, #5 and #1


7th Race
#4 Chasing Time is a distance specialist and this level looks to suit him. #8 Top Gunner tried the Grade 2 Phoenix in his last and didn't fair well. Last years form is strong though and expect him to improve here in his 2nd off the layoff and with softer. #2 Traegar is first off the layoff but brings a solid resume having only finished out of the top 2 spots only once in 6 starts. Top Picks #4, #8 and #2


8th Race
#10 Appraise was the beaten favorite last out after being a bit rank early in the race. Expect connections to have him right for this one with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. #9 More Than Looks exits a nice stakes win posting an impressive 101 Beyer Speed figure. He comes over as the early 9-5 favorite. #5 Mo Stash has been keeping tough company in recent form and holding his own. He has some early speed and expect a big effort. Top Picks #10, #9 and #5


9th Race
#8 Law Professor is a hard knocking sort that loves this distance and is making his 2nd off the layoff. His consistency is impressive and like him to find the winners circle here. #10 Trademark just missed with Grade 2 company in his last and is another with consistent form. #3 King Fury finished 4th in this race last year . He is 2nd off the layoff and expect him to show up sharp here. Top Picks #8, #10 and #3


10th Race
#4 Time Song is making his 3rd career start and is moving to the grass. If this is taken off the grass course due to rain he looks even more a likely winner. #11 Vivaldi was far back in his debut effort and the race turned out to be quite a productive one with 2nd and 3rd place finishers both coming back to win their next start. Expect a sharper effort here. #12 Mo Caliente just missed last out at this distance and expect him to bring a big game with these. Top Picks #4, #11 and #12

[ConleyPicks]

“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Dusty Springfield
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Magic Wanderer.

Forecast: Dusty Springfield was well meant in her debut this month but wound up fifth after breaking slowly, racing wide, and then appearing a bit green while in dire need of the experience. We’re expecting a much more professional performance today from the daughter of Grazen, so with top jockey Juan Hernandez riding her back the Phil D’Amato-trained California-bred sophomore should step forward considerably. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at or near that price.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Thompson
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Thompson shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern plus the always popular blinkers off angle, so the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding looks very likely to produce a significant forward move in this maiden claiming main track miler for juveniles. The barn has powerful stats with stretch out runners, and with the break in the weights that bug boy Torrealba provides, the son of First Samurai looks solid at 9/5. He’s a win play at or near that price and a rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Make It Snow
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Make It Snow actually ran quite well when fourth in the productive Unzip Me Stakes sprinting down the hill earlier this month and today returns to the maiden ranks seeking her diploma. The pedigree suggests she can easily handle the stretch out in trip so there should be no excuses for the daughter of Empire Maker. She’s listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and we’d take that price in a heartbeat if we could get it at post time.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ice Dancing
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ice Dancing is a first time Lasix user in this second level allowance extended main track dash for fillies and mares in her first outing since winning the Santa Ynez Stakes last January. Successful both sprinting and over a distance of ground, the versatile daughter of Frosted returns with a series of workouts for trainer Richard Mandella that should have her plenty fit and ready. The rail post is of some concern, but in a field without much zip she should have no difficulty as the pace setter or presser, assuming she leaves with her field. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and is likely to go lower as a logical win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Avoir; 7-Blue Oasis.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Avoir has been given a strong foundation of three sprint preps prior to this stretch out around two turns and with a pedigree that suggests she’ll improving over a distance of ground the daughter of More Than Ready seems well spotted to graduate. All three of her outings to date have produced speed figures that are par for this level, so we’ll go with the Peter Miller-trained juvenile filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 2-1. Also worth tossing in is Blue Oasis, a promising daughter of War Front who lost her best chance at the start when stumbling badly in a similar race over this course and distance three weeks ago, yet she still managed to wind up fifth, beaten less than two lengths.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tiz Tok
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Take Charge Curly; 7-All the King’s Men.

Forecast: Tiz Tok doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler for older horses and should return to his best form after being pitched too high three weeks ago in a hot sprint won by the extremely talented Ghost of Midnight. There isn’t anything remotely as fast as that unbeaten gelding to worry about today, so we anticipate the son of Tiznow will be able to duplicate his sharp runner-up effort at this level at Los Alamitos two races back. We wouldn’t take much less than his morning line of 5/2 but at that price he’ll offer a reasonable amount of value.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Grace Period
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Gimme Mo Baby; 7-Yerwanthere.

Forecast: Grace Period is a fairly decent French invader making her U.S. debut as a first time Lasix user in this first level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Stakes placed as a 2-year-old when second to subsequent QE2 Challenge Cup runner-up Lindy, she was in extremely tough in a pair of black type events overseas this year before importation, and under good trainer Leonard Powell’s tutelage the daughter of Creative Cause should go much, much better on this circuit. She attracts Frankie, shows a brief series of sharp recent local drills to have her cranked and ready, and should be capable of outclassing this field for a barn that has enjoyed excellent success with shippers from overseas. We’ll make a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Midnight Love; 3-Eligiio; 8-Tapalo.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Schwarzmeier.

Forecast: Midnight Love showed some ability in a pair abbreviated juvenile sprint races last May when hitting the board despite breaking slowly on both occasions. He returns off a five month vacation with a reasonable series of workouts, and if the son of Midnight Love can step forward even just a little bit this time around (and, hopefully, break with his field), he’ll have a good chance to graduate in this moderate state-bred affair. His morning line of 5-1 seems reasonable. Eligio is back with maidens today after running well in a starter optional claimer at Del Mar in late August. The son of Congrats has three seconds from three starts on his resume and should find a field he can beat soon enough. Tapalo is comfortably drawn outside and has plenty of room to improve after flashing good speed before weakening late in his debut over seven furlongs at Los Alamitos last month. Toss him in somewhere.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Bally’s Charm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Hit the Road.

Forecast: Bally’s Charm ran lesser foes into the ground in a recent fast, highly rated allowance score over this course and distance and similar front runner tactics surely will be employed in this year’s edition of the Lure Stakes. A four time winner over the local lawn and a stakes winner in state-bred company, the son of Roi Charmant tackles open foes today but has speed figures that are good enough for a repeat score despite the obvious raise in class. Two nice recent breezes should tick him over for another major effort, so let’s put him on top in the win pool and play him with confidence in the various rolling exotics.

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[ConleyPicks]

Peter Lurie SANTA ANITA

R1. 8-5-7-6R2. 5-2-1-3
R3. 4-1-6-2
R4. 1-4-6-3
R5. 8-3-7-1
R6. 7-8-9-3
R7. 7–4-3-5
R8. 7-4-2-5
R9. 5-3-7-2