Saturday 10/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Saturday October 28, 2023
Andy Serling

Race 1 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2 2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3 9 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4 2B - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 5 6 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7 5 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 8 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 9 1 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 10 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 11 7 - 4 - 1 - 8

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 28
by David Aragona
BAQ


PICKS

Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 9 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 2B - 7 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 10 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 8 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 10: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 4 - 1 - 10 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 1

Perhaps this race is as simple as defaulting to Beary Funny (#1) in his second start, but I’m not thrilled with this horse at a very short price. He ran well on debut in somewhat of a surprise, going off at 25-1. That appeared to be a very strong race for the level, but it’s unclear if it really was, considering that the winner came back to run so poorly in his next start. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I would rather it be Flying in Style (#2) at a better price. This horse earned a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures, 90 and 92, in his first couple of starts, that are faster than Beary Funny’s debut. He obviously ran poorly in that Aug. 27 race, but he got upset in the stalls and lunged into the front of the gate before getting yanked back by the assistant starter. Sometimes that kind of incident can really rattle a horse, and he wasn’t himself during the race. It also took him more than a month to get back to the worktab, so something clearly went wrong. Now he’s back showing a steady series of drills, and he looks like the speed in a race that didn’t come up very strong for the level.

Fair Value:
#2 FLYING IN STYLE, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 6

A few of these exit the 8th race at this level on Sep. 3 at Saratoga. Dontmesswithtess (#7) figures to take money despite finishing off the board that day. She did have a valid excuse last time, as she was unfocused for the start and spotted the field several lengths. She actually made a strong move into contention on the far turn, but flattened out late. The problem is that she always seems to get overbet whenever Irad Ortiz is aboard, so I’m not confident that her poor result last time, excuse or not, is going to scare anyone away. She also has shown a tendency to flatten out late in her races, and her lac of early speed is a concern in this spot. Miss Kristy (#8) also ran well in that Sep. 3 affair coming from off the pace, and she might have more upside as a 3-year-old. She’s been improving with each turf start, and reliably tries hard down the stretch in each of her races. I do wonder if the race will set up for her without a ton of speed signed on, but she figures to give an honest account of herself. My top pick is Diamond Status (#2), who finished ahead of both of those runners on Sep. 3. Some might be turned off by her 1-for-15 lifetime record, but she’s really figured things out lately, finishing in the exacta in each of her last three starts. She ran deceptively well to break her maiden when stalking a fast pace that was falling apart behind her. Then last time she attended another honest pace in a race that was dominated by closers. She looked ripe to get swallowed up at the top of the stretch, but continued to battle on gamely all the way to the wire going a distance that may be stretching her. I love this cutback to a mile, and she figures to get a perfect trip sitting just in behind likely speed Miss San Gabriel.

Fair Value:
#2 DIAMOND STATUS, at 4-1 or greater


RACE 7

Redistricting (#5) might just be too talented for this field as he gets back to the races after disappointing in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby when last seen. While he took plenty of money to be 5-1, that was always an ambitious spot for a horse making just the second start of his career. He drew a poor post and never had particularly good position during the race, wide for much of the way. I would excuse the effort, and he did run exceptionally well on debut. The turn of foot that he produced in that first start was impressive, and he beat a solid field by nearly 5 lengths. A repeat of that performance makes him very tough here. However, he’s going to be a short price off the layoff for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz and I think there are a couple of alternatives with significant upside. One of those is Shadowed (#4), who makes his first North American start after racing in Ireland. He encountered a very good horse in the second start of his career, finishing second to future Epsom Derby winner Auguste Rodin. However, he never really built on that 2-year-old form, beating weaker to break his maiden this year before losing as the heavy favorite in a lower level race. Perhaps he will step forward for the new barn, but he really needs to do so. I prefer Capture the Flag (#10), who deserves another chance on the turf. This horse was visually impressive breaking his maiden on dirt as a 2-year-old, but has always been more turf meant given his pedigree, being out of a dam who won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. He finally got on grass last time and I didn’t think he got the opportunity to put forth his best effort. He was taken back early, ridden very conservatively through the early portion of the race. He seemingly had plenty of run coming around the far turn, but stayed inside and had to work his way through traffic before running on belatedly. I expect he will have more to offer now that he has that experience under his belt. There’s still a chance he turns out to be pretty good on this surface.

Fair Value:
#10 CAPTURE THE FLAG, at 9-2 or greater


RACE 10

Accretive (#3) could go favored here after finishing second to Cody’s Wish in the Vosburgh four weeks ago. While he deserves some credit for holding his own against that foe, he did get a much better trip overall, setting a moderate pace in a race where the favorite had to overcome a poor start. He’s proven that he handles a mile and he’s shown the class to win at this level. I just wonder if he’s going to be a short price for popular connections, and he probably does need to produce a better effort than we’ve seen thus far in his 4-year-old campaign to beat this field. The other horse who figures to vie for favoritism is Everso Mischievous (#2). He’s shown ability from the start, and he seems to have gained some focus since adding blinkers two starts back. He might be heading in the right direction, but he's been an extremely short price in all of his races, and figures to take money again here despite the class hike. He’s also drawn inside of some formidable pace rivals, so he could be under the gun from this inside draw. I much prefer the draw of Film Star (#4), who has a similar running style. This horse has been quite the successful claim for Linda Rice. He’s been in fantastic form, improving all the time, as he really seems to be thriving on the busy schedule. While he did get some favorable pace setups when he won two and three back, he overcome a tougher pace scenario in the Woodward last time. He was attending some honest fractions, took over in upper stretch and just couldn’t hold off the classy Zandon. That 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the top number in this race. The big question for him is the turnback to a one-turn mile, but he had run well in one-turn races earlier this year. He also drew well outside of his two main rivals, giving Jose Lezcano options. If things fall apart, Dr Ardito (#5) should come running late. I’m willing to forgive his last effort, since he didn’t seem to handle the slop at Parx. He had been consistent prior to that, but I just feel like we’ve already seen the best he has to offer and others have a higher ceiling.

Fair Value:
#4 FILM STAR, at 3-1 or greater


RACE 11

Material Witness (#2) could go favored again after running a decent second at this level last month. She validated her performance at Kentucky Downs, where she really seemed to appreciate the switch to turf. She was just no match for the winner, Queen of the Mud, last time. While she was flattered by that foe returning to win at Keeneland, it appears that there wasn’t much behind her in that Aqueduct maiden win. In general, I wanted to avoid horses coming out of that race. Though I would use Catskill Humor (#10) if she’s a generous price. She didn’t break that sharply and was wide every step of the way, running better than her 5th-place result indicates. I’m just more interested in a pair of turnbacks. Riviere (#1) makes plenty of sense after running so well in her career debut going this distance. She didn’t break well that day, but rushed up while racing wide before proceeding in the 4-path into the far turn. She actually made a move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out. Since then she didn’t get the right trip at Kentucky Downs and then stretched out last time. She ran fine going a mile without much excuse, but she might just be getting back to the right distance here. My top pick is Le Beau (#4), who exits that same Oct. 12 race. She’s never sprinted before, but she strikes me as one that shouldn’t mind the turnback in distance. Mendelssohn is a versatile sire who gets 13% turf sprint winners, and this filly has the tactical speed to work out the right kind of trip here. She actually ran deceptively well off the layoff at Kentucky Downs, rushing up to contest the pace after breaking a couple of lengths slowly. She ran better than Riviere last time, going 3-wide on the far turn to make her move before flattening out. Christophe Clement is one of the few trainers who excels with this turnback on turf. He is 23 for 87 (26%, $1.94 ROI) with 3YO+ runners going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont and Aqueduct over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#4 LE BEAU, at 7-2 or greater
#1 RIVIERE, at 5-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 28

Oct. 27, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 59% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 REFUAH
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Refuah	T McCarthy
PLACE	7-5	1	Beary Funny	M Franco
SHOW	9-2	6	Vaunted	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Escape Key	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Flying in Style	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Prince of Truth	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 THE REVENGER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	The Revenger	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-5	3	Hammerin Aamer	L J Luzzi
SHOW	4-1	6	Pit Boss	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	20-1	1	Jumpster	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	My Friends Beer	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Continental Divide	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #3 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 3/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	War Officer	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	9	Sacred Rhyme	J Lezcano
SHOW	4-1	5	Torigo	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	6-1	3	The Jackal	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Nostalgic One	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Elevated Causeway	K Davis
* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	2B	Colonel Bowman	K Carmouche
PLACE	7-2	6	Sagamore Mischief	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	12-1	4	Flint Ridge	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Magnolia Midnight	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Scilly Cay	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	1-1	2	Tetsu	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #5 $102,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 RACHELS ROCK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	8	Rachels Rock	J Rendon
PLACE	8-1	5	Lady Milagro	L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW	5-1	7	Quick Munny	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	5-2	6	You Look Cold	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	More Than Vows	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	1	Taming the Tigress	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #6 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	10	Tap It Up	M Franco
PLACE	9-2	6	Elle Est Forte	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	2	Diamond Status	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Miss San Gabriel	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Dontmesswithtess	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	11	Smokin Hot Kitty	M Franco
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	9	Quality G	M Franco
PLACE	9-5	13	Mistical Curlin	J Alvarado
SHOW	6-5	5	Redistricting	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Ramblin Wreck	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	12	Daddy Knows	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Capture the Flag	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 9-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/13 BOX, 3/5/13 BOX
RACE #8 $250,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Occult	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	4	Undervalued Asset	M Franco
SHOW	6-5	6	Xigera	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Foggy Night	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Defining Purpose	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Julia Shining	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $135,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	8	Spirit Prince	D Davis
PLACE	7-2	5	Twirling Point	J Castellano
SHOW	15-1	4	Blue Creek	F Boyce
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Move to Gold	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Innate	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Dancing Mischief	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:53 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Accretive	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	2	Everso Mischievous	C A Torres
SHOW	3-1	4	Film Star	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Swiftsure	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Dr Ardito	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Business Model	D Davis
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #11 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:23 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Le Beau	J Castellano
PLACE	7-2	2	Material Witness	M Franco
SHOW	5-1	1	Riviere	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Wish List	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	11	Words of Praise	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Iguazu	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 28

Oct. 27, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 DREAMING OF SMARTY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	8	Dreaming of Smarty	L Saez
PLACE	5-2	7	Born Flawless	E Morales
SHOW	7-2	5	City of Clouds	G Corrales
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Line to Gain	A Calleja
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Bruce Banner	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Jewelstown	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Lat Long	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	8-1	16	Chaperone	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	10-1	13	Creek	F Prat
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Publius	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Disattached	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Transcendental	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 7-16 BOX, 16-13 BOX, 13-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/13/16 BOX, 8/13/16 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Curly Jack	E Morales
PLACE	3-1	5	Denington	C J Lanerie
SHOW	8-1	4	Bromley	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	4-1	6	King Ice	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Promise Me a Ride	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	3	Dubyuhnell	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 INSENSITIVE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	10	Insensitive	F Arrieta
PLACE	8-1	9	Crushed Ice	L Saez
SHOW	7-2	4	Foxfire	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	11	Kids Last Laugh	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Nikki M P	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Musical Prayer	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/9/11 BOX
RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 CLEVER THOUGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Clever Thought	L Saez
PLACE	9-2	11	Truly Quality	J L Ortiz
SHOW	7-2	15	Baba Voss	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Spirit Maker	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Our Dream Ryed	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	5	Hilliard	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-15 BOX, 15-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/11/15 BOX, 3/11/15 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Royal Slipper	J Rosario
PLACE	5-2	1	Normandy Hero	A Achard
SHOW	3-1	2	Valentine Candy	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Glengarry	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Maycocks Bay	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Patriot Spirit	F Prat
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #7 $140,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Fortin Hill	J R Velazquez
PLACE	8-1	7	Pro Oxidant	L Saez
SHOW	3-1	2	Traegar	F Prat
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Doctor Oscar	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	O Besos	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Top Gunner	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	9	More Than Looks	J R Velazquez
PLACE	5-2	1	Talk of the Nation	J L Ortiz
SHOW	15-1	3	Dude N Colorado	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Mo Stash	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Gigante	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Worthington	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #9 $350,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Film Star	J L Ortiz
PLACE	8-1	4	Giant Game	J Rosario
SHOW	9-2	10	Trademark	M Garcia
WILD CARD	20-1	6	Speed Bias	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Law Professor	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	9	OConnor	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/10 BOX, 4/6/10 BOX
RACE #10 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	16	Real Men Violin	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	6-1	12	Mo Caliente	J L Ortiz
SHOW	3-1	8	Act of Mutiny	F Prat
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Deadpan	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	3	Wauhatchie	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	15	Phreddie Mac	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 16-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/12/16 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 28

Oct. 27, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Satoshi	K Frey
PLACE	5-2	8	Dusty Springfield	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	7	Grazen Touch	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Magic Wanderer	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	9	Stylish Dress	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Blondzilla	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
RACE #2 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Screaming Virginia	J D Lopez
PLACE	9-5	5	Thompson	J Torrealba
SHOW	5-1	4	Uncle Juju	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Ringtone	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Veritas Aequitas	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Details Matter	J Valdivia Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MAKE IT SNOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Make It Snow	V Espinoza
PLACE	5-2	1	Happy Happy	A Fresu
SHOW	2-1	6	Miss Monarch Bay	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Thirty Carats	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Beautiful Bolt	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Machiavellique	L Dettori
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #4 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ICE DANCING
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Ice Dancing	M E Smith
PLACE	4-1	3	Violent Runner	M Gutierrez
SHOW	2-1	6	Doinitthehardway	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Smoothlikebuttah	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Angel Nadeshiko	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Outside the Law	T Baze
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 AVOIR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Avoir	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	8	Circle of Trust	L Dettori
SHOW	3-1	7	Blue Oasis	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Visually	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Motet	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Glo Glo	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Tiz Tok	T Baze
PLACE	3-1	7	All the Kings Men	J Torrealba
SHOW	4-1	3	Take Charge Curly	K Frey
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Canelo	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Road of Love	C Ortega
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Cathedral Light	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX
RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:11 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Rose Barton	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-1	1	Gimme Mo Baby	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-1	5	Myfavoritedaughter	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	4	Grace Period	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Luminiferous	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	With Love	R Gonzalez
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $40,000 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Midnight Love	T J Pereira
PLACE	5-2	4	Eligio	R Gonzalez
SHOW	3-1	8	Tapalo	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Sharpazano	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Schwarzmeier	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Gavea	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #9 $80,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Ballys Charm	H I Berrios
PLACE	8-1	1	Hit the Road	J Bravo
SHOW	5-2	3	Astronomer	A Fresu
WILD CARD	8-1	7	War At Sea	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Visitant	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Cabo Spirit	V Espinoza
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN’S RACING TIPSHEET
SATURDAY, OCT. 28 POST TIME: 6:00PM
BREEDERS CROWN HARRAH'S HOOSIER

RACE SELECTIONS
RACE 1: 7-6-4-5
RACE 2: 10-3-11-4
RACE 3: 5-4-2-11
RACE 4: 10-4-2-7
RACE 5: 1-7-5-10
RACE 6: 7-1-3-5
RACE 7: 7-10-8-2
RACE 8: 1-3-4-6
RACE 9: 2-1-10-3
RACE 10: 5-7-6-4
RACE 11: 5-10-3-1
RACE 12: 8-1-5-9
RACE 13: 4-5-9-2
RACE 14: 5-9-3-2
RACE 15: 4-3-2-10-7

CHAMBERLAIN’S CHOICE:
RACE 5 #1:WHYNOTNOW(9-5)

PRICE PLAY OF THE NIGHT:
RACE 15 #4: PONDA WARRIOR (12-1)

EARLY PICK 5 TICKET (RACES 1-5)
RACE 1: 6,7
RACE 2: 3,4,10,11
RACE 3: 4,5
RACE 4: 2,4,7,10
RACE 5: 1
$32

PICK 4 TICKET (RACES 12-15)
$40,000 GUARANTEED POOL
RACE 12: 1,5,8
RACE 13: 4
RACE 14: 2,3,5,9
RACE 15: 2,3,4,10
$24

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Keeneland - Race #8

#1 Talk of the Nation	His baseline efforts make him competitive here, and I love that he just never runs a bad one. Tactical speed should find a perfect trip from the fence.
#9 More Than Looks	He's an honest finisher who landed a stakes score in his local debut last time out, and his only loss in recent runs came to a decent one in Grade II company. Guessing he'll show up late again.
#4 Smokey Mandate	He landed a couple underneath stakes shares in recent starts and has some versatility as far as where he can be placed early on, but he'll need to turn the tables on More Than Looks from that last one.
Race Summary	Talk of the Nation can sit close in here, and I can see him finding a great spot in the pocket early on. Think the jury is still at least just a little bit out on him as far as overall class goes, but he's definitely in the mix in a Grade III kind of spot.

Keeneland - Race #9

#8 Law Professor	He'll go second off the break today after just going flat late in the first start off a five-month break last out, and a little reasonable move forward off that start would keep him in the picture with these.
#1 Film Star	He was closest to Zandon in that common Woodward a few of them exit, but I could see him getting a slightly tricky trip from the inside with a couple other runners who want to be in the front half early.
#2 Happy American	He shows up with some pretty solid late runs from time to time, and he would benefit if all the potential forward players flashed their pace early in here. Think he makes some sense in the underneath spots.
Race Summary	Law Professor looks likely to get a really good tracking trip today, and he might be able to sustain a bid from close range a bit better today with that last one under his belt.

Keeneland - Race #10

#1 Trikari	Debuter goes for a team that can win with younger horses, and I'm not sure he's meeting the toughest special weight field we're going to see for the 2-year-olds. Get a look at him, but I wouldn't be shocked if he were ready to roll.
#3 Wauhatchie	He ran on well on the main track in the career debut when outperforming the 42/1 price, and he probably has a claim on a slice of this if he can transfer that over to the turf today. Interesting at a midrange price.
#8 Act of Mutiny	He moved up on the turf when finishing with some enthusiasm at Kentucky Downs in September, and a bit more leisurely route tempo might work in his favor to allow him to avoid winding up with so much to do late.
Race Summary	Trikari brings a steady series of drills to this one while finding a group with a decent number of questions to answer, and a few other big name barns might command enough attention to leave the price more interesting.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#10 RED HOT SPARK (4-1)	Better than debut appears, expect a big effort if she breaks alertly.
#3 EMILY’S WISH (3-1)	Joseph firster worked fast early, breezed several times from gate recently.
#9 PARTY SHAKER (7-2)	Launched career in MSW route race, takes class drop and tries sprint.
Race Summary	RED HOT SPARK earned the top speed figure in the field despite hesitating at the start, racing a bit greenly and lugging in. But she drew a lot of betting support, finished very willingly and moves from the rail to a more favorable outside post. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#6 SOLAIR (7-2)	Model of consistency in short sprints, projects good stalking trip.
#5 TALK MUCH (9-2)	Speed will be tested in bid for three consecutive wins.
#7 RUNAWAY BREEZE (4-1)	Handled cutback in distance, caught by wide closer, enters new barn.
Race Summary	SOLAIR is always in the winning hunt in sprints on the Tapeta surface. She has yet to break through against open company but could do so today with an ideal trip in the offing. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#2 BRITISH EMPRESS (5-1)	Eventful, well-bet debut, offers value in solid field.
#1 SUPER SPIN (3-1)	Led most of way in debut, stretch drift to 5-path proved costly.
#7 ATALANTA ALEXANDRA (7-5)	Second best in 3 of 5 starts at 6F, the latest in MSW company.
Race Summary	BRITISH EMPRESS took serious money but broke outward, chased while very wide and didn’t change leads in the stretch. She goes an extra half-furlong and gets Lasix again in her second go-round. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: New Orleans -4 over New York

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Early Saturday Free Selection: Tulsa Golden Hurricane/SMU Mustangs under 56 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Play: California Golden Bears + 10

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers - 17

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Miami-Ohio Redhawks + 7 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
Houston Cougars

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Tim Donaghy

Tim Donaghy Free Play for Saturday:
Philadelphia 76ers