Thursday 11/2/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
5	5	STATEMENT	5/2	Paquet, Fern Jr - 10	435.12
4	4	WINNING IS SWEET	9/2	Taggart, Jim Jr - 18	424.88
1	1	MAJOR HUMOR	3/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 7	421.92
6	6	GOT HOT MOM	6/1	Merton, Thomas - 7	402.31
2	2	SOME POWER	8/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 13	401.82
3	3	MAGNUM FORCE	5/1	Parker, Brandon - 12	399.10
8	8	MACHTU N	7/2	Sowers, Mcgwire - 12	393.36
7	7	SWORD OFTHE SPIRIT	10/1	Smith, Todd - 0	362.54

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$13000 - NW $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OF THE BASE CLASS NW $7,500 L5 IN LAST START NE AE: WINNERS IN THE LAST START OF THE BASE CLASS NW $5,000 L5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 WALKINSHAW N 9/5
# 3 REIGNING DEO 5/2
# 5 GAMBLINGTERROR 5/1

WALKINSHAW N looks to be our best wagering option in this race. Feel the need for speed, this fine animal has been turning in some stellar speed ratings averaging around 91. The 91 average class rating may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the field of horses. One of the most respectable win percents with this driver-trainer make this gelding dangerous. REIGNING DEO - Had one of the most respectable TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the group of animals in his last competition. I'd recommend using in your wagers. The handicapping team happens to know that when you put Brennan and Alexander together great results frequently occur. GAMBLINGTERROR - The 5 post is on fire here at Yonkers Raceway. More wins than the expected average. Getting a good feeling about this gelding. Could surprise in this event.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 2:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$12600 - NON WINNERS 3PM RACES LIFETIME AE: NON WINNERS $30,100 LIFETIME PER PHRC #7 AND #8 RACE UNCOUPLED

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 8 ALLSUMMERLONG AS 5/1
# 1 BUDWEISER GIRL 7/2
# 3 CANDY BOMBER 9/5

If you want a formidable play in this contest, feast your eyes on ALLSUMMERLONG AS. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, lean toward this one's chances. Recorded a 75 speed fig last time out. A duplicate affair here should get the win today. Looks like a strong selection in this group and her better than average winning percentage says she has the determination to end up in the winner's circle in this one. BUDWEISER GIRL - This race horse has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 78 avg class ranking. Should play well today. CANDY BOMBER - Overall rankings appear very nice. Can't throw out at this point. Has very good TrackMaster speed figs and surely has to be thought of for a wager in this event.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
5	5	LADY'S DUDE	2/1	Palone, Dave - 25	552.06
2	2	ROSE RUN WHITNEY	5/2	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 27	521.78
7	7	AUNT BEE	20/1	Johnston, Aaron - 9	510.68
1	1	STICKLER HANOVER	12/1	Brown, Brady - 8	483.98
6	6	MIND YOWN BUSINESS	8/1	Indof, Jeremy - 10	470.24
3	3	MAKE IT A DOUBLE	9/2	Merriman, Aaron - 15	469.75
9	9	I LOVE MY MVP	20/1	Zendt, Brian - 8	466.09
4	4	KOMMIN ON STRONG	15/1	Collins, Dean - 7	460.32
8	8	RIPPLE OF HOPE	15/1	Monti, Drew - 8	430.54

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 2
Nov. 01, 2023
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (6) Sharp Flame debuts for Cox and merits top billing here. (7) Interception could steal this one. (8) Sakura Sky will be dangerous in a claimer. (5) Babe in the Woods lost her rider last time and is due for better luck. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-7-8.

4th race – (4) Crazy Cami was no factor in a stakes but fits better here. (3) Tempting Lady looks like the one to fear. (10) Mixer showed talent in her debut. (7) Modarosa could be a factor in her debut. . Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-7-10.

6th race – (3) English Tavern turned in a solid effort last time and found a winning spot here. (8) Fair Dinkum got off to a bumpy start last time and deserves a look here. (6) Alex Joon is a threat in this spot. (5) Chanceux has been working great for his comeback. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6-8.

8th race – (9) Banishing disappointed last time after a big effort. Seems poised for a strong comeback effort. (8) Abadin could be tough to catch here. (6) Arro Smash should be in the picture at the end. (3) Money Supply is in great form and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-8-9.

10th race – (12) Mr Big Stuff seems set for a winning effort in his debut. (11) Capo could cause trouble here. (3) Stunnem should thrive at this level. (7) Summer in Aiken could be a factor off the class drop. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-11-12.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 2

Nov. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 71% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	My Man Woody	L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE	2-1	6	Drinking Solo	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	5	Rudy Rudy Rudy	R Silvera
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Awesome for Sure	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Raleigh St. Clair	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Solo in Paris	L J Luzzi
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Blue Plate Special	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-5	6	Fight Fiercely	R Silvera
SHOW	5-1	7	Mudville Nine	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Deputy Connect	K Davis
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Pine Valley	E Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	South Street	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $55,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	11	Giroovin	M Franco
PLACE	8-5	4	Charging	M Franco
SHOW	12-1	1	Tenebris	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Volkert	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	10	Kunshan Bridge	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Kant Beat the Rock	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/11 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Kupp	L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE	6-1	2	Joking Way	J A Gomez
SHOW	4-1	7	President Z	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Street Swagg	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Provision	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Narciso Dali	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 NAUGHTY DESTINY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Naughty Destiny	M Franco
PLACE	2-1	14	Call Her Bluff	Rider TBA
SHOW	8-1	10	Starsinthecity	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	12-1	7	Calling an Audible	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Miss City Girl	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	No Layups	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 1-14 BOX, 14-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/14 BOX, 7/10/14 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 FRISKY JIM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Frisky Jim	D Davis
PLACE	6-1	3	Little Skippy	K Davis
SHOW	3-1	4	Swing District	M Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Growth Mindset	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Whenlovetakesover	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	5	Golden Purchase	O Hernandez Moreno
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #7 $30,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Internal Capital	M Franco
PLACE	8-1	4	Billys Got Issues	D Davis
SHOW	7-2	1	Emboite	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Carpes Dream	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	13	Thethrillofvictory	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Barrel of Quests	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $92,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Adero	A Adorno
PLACE	9-2	7	Bourbon Calling	M Franco
SHOW	10-1	9	Castle Chaos	J Rendon
WILD CARD	6-1	2	I Am the Law	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Full Screen	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	10	Winit	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
RACE #9 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 DIVIDEND RECAP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Dividend Recap	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	14	Ekwanok	Rider TBA
SHOW	6-1	12	Boxed Wine	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Run for Your Honey	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Alittlebitnaughty	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Fast and Frisky	M Olver
* EXACTA: 5-14 BOX, 14-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/12/14 BOX, 8/12/14 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 2

Nov. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 LOST BIKINI
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Lost Bikini	J McKee
PLACE	5-1	5	Recognize Me	M Michel
SHOW	3-1	4	Keen Contender	E Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Tone Elise	G Ashton
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Free Time	Y L Correa
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Sunday Grace	Y Navas
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Interception	L Saez
PLACE	9-2	8	Sakura Sky	C A Torres
SHOW	5-1	5	Babe in the Woods	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	9	Parkington	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Lost Love	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Sharp Flame	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 DOG RED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Dog Red	J R Leparoux
PLACE	5-1	3	Faithful King	J McKee
SHOW	6-1	2	Prince of Roses	Y L Correa
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Mr. Peterkin	T Canuto
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	El Franco	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	2-1	7	Carmichael	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #4 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	10	Mixer	J Loveberry
PLACE	7-2	3	Tempting Lady	T Gaffalione
SHOW	2-1	4	Crazy Cami	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Modarosa	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Margarets Lady	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Tale of La Bee	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/10 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Master of Arms	R Bejarano
PLACE	9-2	3	Supremely	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	9	Balsa	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Fan the Fire	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	6	What a Blast	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Power Alley	J L Castanon
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 3/4/9 BOX
RACE #6 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	English Tavern	C J Hernandez
PLACE	9-2	6	Alex Joon	J R Leparoux
SHOW	3-1	8	Fair Dinkum	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	3-1	10	Tiwanaku	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	February Son	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Tartufo	J A Torres
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 6/8/10 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	13	Silver Rose	F Geroux
PLACE	3-1	7	Candy Lover	F Geroux
SHOW	6-1	8	Union Mist	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	12-1	10	In Just My Heels	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Cruise Missile	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Just a Coed	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 13-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/13 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX
RACE #8 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	3	Money Supply	C A Torres
PLACE	6-1	4	Higginson	F Geroux
SHOW	7-2	9	Banishing	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Abadin	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	Antares	J E Felix
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	J Js Joker	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
RACE #9 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 CHANTRY FLATS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	6	Chantry Flats	J E Felix
PLACE	4-1	2	No One to Blame	G Corrales
SHOW	5-2	11	Search Engine	E Morales
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Play Action Pass	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Freedoms Way	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Microphone	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/11 BOX, 2/7/11 BOX
RACE #10 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Stunnem	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	9-2	9	Master of Disguise	E Morales
SHOW	4-1	2	Remember the Fear	G Ashton
WILD CARD	6-1	11	Capo	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	8	Charlie Zulu	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Summer in Aiken	L Machado
* EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Tip Sheet - November 2

Nov. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 LONESOME STEW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	11	Lonesome Stew	T Baze
PLACE	4-1	12	Phosphorescence	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	5-2	7	Belmont Bill	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Awesome Rhythm	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Thirty Four Coupe	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Vagabond Shoes	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 11-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/11/12 BOX, 2/7/12 BOX
RACE #2 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SIDE BY SIDE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Side by Side	A Aguilar
PLACE	3-1	3	Dancing Mo	K Ikezoe
SHOW	9-5	4	Riley G	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Jazzy Boo	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Storming Gray	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Bangs	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Stick Shift	L Dettori
PLACE	3-1	9	El Rey Rey	A Cedillo
SHOW	5-2	5	Rastaman Vibe	F Prat
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Island Cruiser	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Sketchy	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Aint No Joke	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Gypsy Lynn	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	6-1	2	Barbera	J Torrealba
SHOW	6-1	7	Back On the Street	K Frey
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Sugar Sugar	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	On Purpose	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Awesome Taylor	A Escobedo
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #5 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Aligato	L Dettori
PLACE	3-1	5	Percolate	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-2	2	Cash Equity	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Carmelitas Man	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Tio Magico	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Avenue	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $40,000 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Blissterinthesun	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	1	Dont Bring Crazy	A Fresu
SHOW	5-2	7	Criticism	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Shes My Niece	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Petite Ange	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Well Do It Live	K Frey
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Dont Ju Forget	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	3	Golden Again	T J Pereira
SHOW	4-1	8	Queen of Pompeii	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Song of Shadows	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Diamonds Danzing	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Sensible Move	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $16,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 AVENTAPP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Aventapp	A Fresu
PLACE	7-2	1	Warrens Show Bizz	R A Vazquez
SHOW	6-1	5	Blessed Angel	A Ayuso
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Ila Veiw Too	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Like No Other	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	8	Blackened	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Thursday November 2, 2023
AQUEDUCT

Paul Verderosa
Race 1 6-1-2-5
Race 2 4-1-6-5
Race 3 11-10-1-7
Race 4 1-2-3-4
Race 5 1-4-5-7
Race 6 3-4-8-2
Race 7 7-3-9-10
Race 8 1-3-2-7
Race 9 5-2-1-8

Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 3 11 - 10 - 1 - 9
Race 4 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 5 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 6 6 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7 7 - 10 - 3 - 9
Race 8 9 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 9 5 - 1 - 7 - 8

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Thursday, November 2
by David Aragona
AQUEDUCT PICKS

Race 1: 5 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 10 - 11 - 12 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 3 - 1A
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 10 - 7
Race 9: 9 - 7 - 5 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 4

Kupp (#1) could go favored here as he makes his second start off the claim for Michelle Nevin. His recent form makes him a solid fit at this level, but I don’t fully trust him to see this out going 6 1/2 furlongs, especially if he’s under the gun from the rail. This horse can get a bit faint-hearted in the late stages, and he figures to get some early pressure from a few to his outside. President Z (#7) is another who could attract support as he returns from a layoff and switches to the barn of David Jacobson. He’s run well in all three of his prior dirt starts, but those races came against cheaper company in California. He needs some pace to develop. Narciso Dali (#5) is an intriguing class dropper. He’s been competing in a series of races where he was badly overmatched, and now he’s dropping into a much more logical spot. His early speed figures to play well here, but I am a little concerned about the turnback in distance. This barn has always been very cold for much of the year. My top pick is Joking Way (#2). Many will view this as a negative trainer switch, claimed away from Linda Rice. Yet Jesus Romero is a trainer who has overachieved with limited stock. While he is 0 for 5 first off the claim, 2 runners in that sample finished second at odds of 32-1 and 21-1. Joking Way had the ability to beat a field like this at one point, and his last effort was a step back in the right direction. I like the confident move up in class off the claim, and he figures to get the right kind of trip tracking the speed.

Fair Value:
#2 JOKING WAY, at 9-2 or greater


RACE 5

The horse to beat in this first division of a 2-year-old New York-bred maiden event on turf is Naughty Destiny (#1). She ran well on debut under these same conditions, overcoming a wide draw to gain ground through the stretch in a solid effort. She didn’t take much money that day, and might still have some upside in her second start for a barn that does very well with youngsters. I’m not against her by any means, but she is fairly obvious. There are also a few first time starters in here, including Miss City Girl (#4), another from the Clement barn who is a full-sister to their multiple stakes winner City Man. Among the firsters, I’m most intrigued by No Layups (#5), who goes out for Chad Brown. She’s out of a multiple turf-winning dam who has already produced 2 turf winners, including the solid allowance type Timbuktu. Yet I generally prefer runners with experience in these races, and I think there’s one drawn outside who may fly under the radar. She Takes Cash (#11) debuted against open company at the Meadowlands in September. The race didn’t come up particularly fast from a speed figure standpoint, but the race was dominated by a couple of promising Chad Brown trainees. She Takes Cash lacked early speed, but was constantly advancing through the second half of the race, and continued to show late interest despite the fact that no one else was making up significant ground. Now she adds blinkers and should be capable of better in her second start for David Duggan, whose horses tend to do better with experience.

Fair Value:
#11 SHE TAKES CASH, at 7-1 or greater


RACE 8

The primary question in this optional claimer centers around morning line favorite Winit (#10), and what we might get from him as he returns from a layoff. This grey son of Tapit has always had ability, but putting it all together in the afternoons has been a problem. Last year, he was often slow away from the gate, and would then get too keen, forcing his riders to make premature moves. He showed talent whenever he was able to relax and stay focused, but he seemed to sabotage himself more often than not. However, perhaps we should expect a different Winit now that he’s returning as a new gelding. Horses with his behavioral issues can often benefit from being gelded, and his impressive series of workouts leading into this return would seem to suggest he’s doing well. Yet he still is coming off a layoff for a barn whose runners typically need a start, and it’s not like he’s going to be some enticing price. I’m more interested in another layoff runner, who actually finished just behind Winit when last seen. I Am the Law (#2) appeared to be in career form when last seen, overcoming his previous habit of settling for minor awards. Once the connections focused on dirt routes with him, he seemed to take that next step forward. He ran his best race going 9 furlongs, but did handle the mile when last seen, closing well through the slop after negotiating some traffic. The big difference between he and Winit is that his trainer John Terranova is 10 for 29 (34%, $3.58 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. There are others to consider with more recency and a few will be bigger prices. My top pick is Synthesis (#3). His recent form looks pretty discouraging, but I think there are some reasons to believe he can turn things around here. Stretching out to a mile might seem counterintuitive, but he was actually quite proficient at route distances before entering David Jacobson’s barn. He’s run some of his best races during the last year going 7 furlongs, so I don’t think the mile is much of a stretch. It’s surely a better fit than those Grade 1 races he contested over the summer, or that 5 1/2 furlong sprint at Laurel without much pace. Notably, the last time he stretched out following a Laurel sprint at that distance, he rebounded with a 10-1 victory in one of his career-best efforts this spring. I think he can be placed more forwardly going this distance, and I like the rider switch to Jose Lezcano.

Fair Value:
#3 SYNTHESIS, at 7-1 or greater


RACE 9

As in the first division of this race, Christophe Clement sends out a dangerous second time starter. Here it is Dividend Recap (#5), who just missed on debut when making a late run at the winner. She broke a step slowly from the rail, but otherwise got a very good trip, saving ground every step of the way. She lands in a spot where she looks logical this time, but she’s going to be a much shorter price, and I’m not sure how much upside she has. Grand Street (#7) is the Chad Brown firster of interest in this division. A Peter Brant homebred by Demarchelier, she has nothing but turf breeding all over her pedigree, being out of a dam who won her debut on grass. Brown can obviously get horses like this ready to win on debut, and she appears to have a nice foundation of workouts. I just have to give another chance to one of the more experienced runners in the field. Pretty Up (#9) has tried turf twice already, and neither performance is as bad as the result indicates. She never looked to be in a comfortable position sprinting on turf back in September, but was figuring it out late, galloping out best of all after the wire. She stretched out last time and lost all chance at the start, getting squeezed back out of position. From there she got a little too keen, but was still finishing well once she finally found running room in the stretch. I think she has more to offer on this surface than we’ve seen, and the addition of blinkers could help a horse who has been running in spots.

Fair Value:
#9 PRETTY UP, at 8-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Belmont Bill; 2-Awesome Rhythm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Thirty Four Coup.

Forecast: We’re going to handicap the Thursday opener under the assumption that none of the five also eligible entrants draw in. Belmont Bill continued his ascending form with an authoritative maiden claiming win two-turning over the local lawn earlier this meeting that produced a career top speed figure. He accomplished the victory from off the pace and surely will employ similar tactics in this stater optional claiming grass dash that appears well within his capabilities despite the boost in class. It appears that at age five the son of Oxbow has finally figured things out. Awesome Rhythm is lightly raced and gradually improving. He is most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter and should be heard from late.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Riley G
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Jazzy Boo.

Forecast: Riley G had a right to be a tad short when pressing the pace before weakening late in her first start in a year and should be fitter and stronger today in this main track sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. Two nice breezes since raced, including a bullet half mile in :47 flat (fastest of 29) last week should have her on edge. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Flatter isn’t likely to offer a whole lot of wagering value.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Island Cruiser; 2-Sketchy.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 9-El Rey Rey.

Forecast: Island Cruiser brought $400,000 at the OBS March sale, where the son of Catalina Cruiser previewed in :21 flat, so he obviously has his share of speed. Local works have been solid, so the John Sadler-trained colt looks enticing in this maiden special weight grass sprint for juveniles that seems likely to be won by a newcomer. Sketchy, a half-brother to Grade-1 winner Marley’s Freedom, was purchased at the OBS April Sale for $200,000 despite breezing in a not-particularly-fast :10 2/5. He’s actually pretty nice mover, and as a son of Uncle Mo could be a late developing sort. His local works aren’t bad, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gypsy Lynn; 5-On Purpose; 2-Barbera.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in the fourth race, an extended sprint for $20,000 claiming fillies and mares. Gypsy Lynn projects to be the quickest of the quick and if she can shake loose early without pressure the daughter of Awesome Again may never look back. She has a prior win over the local main track and is realistically dropped in class for the money run. On Purpose has been chasing tougher in all of her recent races and at this level the Vladimir Cerin-trained mare must be considered a major player. An even fourth place performance facing $32,000 sellers at Los Alamitos wasn’t bad in her first start in five months, so a forward move is likely. Barbera has consistent recent form, though she couldn’t seal the deal at 3/5 when claimed at this level two weeks ago. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Torrealba and seems likely to settle in the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Cash Equity; 3-Aligato; 7-Tio Magico.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Carmelita’s Man.

Forecast: Cash Equity exits a series of tougher races and returns to his proper level while being reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez. He’s a three time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to have modest early splits. Aligato is winless in five starts this year but his numbers are strong and he’s overdue to break through. He picks up Frankie and should make his presence felt in the final furlong. Tio Magico was a tad disappointing when fifth as the chalk at this level last month in a hot race. Today’s extra furlong should help, so with a repeat of his race before last he should be right there.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Blissterinthesun; 7-Criticism
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato has the two main contenders in this maiden optional claiming extended main track sprint for juvenile fillies. Blissterinthesun was a reasonable runner-up in her debut at Del Mar behind a next-out stakes winner and not much more will be needed to her diploma for a barn that has solid stats with the second time starter angle. She didn’t get much play (27-1) in that race but will be favored today unless her stable mate Criticism turns up a hot item. The latter, a daughter of Blame from the stakes placed dam of the good allowance sprinter (and debut winner) Iron Works, breezed from the gate in a bullet :59 flat at Los Alamitos in late September and seems likely to be highly competitive first crack out of the box.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Golden Again; 2-Don’t Ju Forget
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Golden Age missed at even money when second in a similar state-bred first level allowance event last month, but this turn back from a mile to a Hillside dash should bring out her best performance. She hasn’t sprinted since winning over the local flat course in June, and with patient handling under regular pilot Tiago Pereira the daughter of Paynter should be along in time. Don’t Ju Forget had a rough trip when a troubled fourth in a grass dash at this level last month. This will be her first try down the Hill and her style suggests she should like it. With clear sailing she projects to be a quite dangerous from a second flight, stalking position.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Aventapp
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Aventapp seems well-spotted in this main track sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares. She has numbers that far exceed par for this level and this class drop to her lowest level ever should make the winning difference. It’s either her or just about anybody else, so let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Orlando -1.5 over Utah

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Thursday Free Selection: New York Islanders/Washington Capitols under 5 1/2 goals

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Vegas Golden Knights - 165

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Easy Money Sports

Free Thursday Basketball Selection From Lee
PHOENIX SUNS -8