Thursday 11/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrah's Philadelphia

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
6	6	SECRET GARDEN	3/1	Ahle, Johnathan - 9	472.26
7	7	FLIPPIN AWESOME	8/1	Pelling, Jack - 10	449.59
3	3	UTE BLUE CHIP	7/1	Miller, Marcus - 7	445.78
4	4	WON'T BACK DOWN	9/2	Miller, David - 17	436.21
2	2	QUICK MENU	7/2	Boyd, Braxten - 11	430.23
8	8	INDIANAS QUEST GB	5/1	Allard, Simon - 17	413.24
1	1	SANDRADIMPLES	8/1	Beyer, Troy - 7	410.34
5	5	LUNAR BEACH	20/1	Horsey, Ceba - 0	403.09

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Post: 10:47 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$11000 - FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $15,000 TO $18,000 FOR NW $30,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 BADDITUDE 2/1
# 2 SEA SAND 8/1
# 8 P L OOOOOOOOOOYAH 10/1

We've got a vibe BADDITUDE is going to get the triumph. Many expert selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This standardbred has credentials with a 72 avg figure. Seems to have a really good class edge based on the opponents she has raced against. Running sharply, achieved a huge TrackMaster Speed Rating in her most recent gathering (64). SEA SAND - Feel the need for speed, this entrant has been turning in some top notch speed figs averaging around 72. This entrant looks very good considering the high class stats. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. P L OOOOOOOOOOYAH - Had one of the strongest TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field of starters in her last competition. I'd recommend using in your bets. This contender will be greatly helped with Macdonald steering. 21 percent winners this last month.

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

Mahoning Valley - Race #1
PICKS NOTES
#4 When in Rome He has had a lot of chances and is short on excuses at this point, but he has a legitimate one when finding trouble in the comeback race. Factor in some improvement second off the break and I think he's supposed to handle these.
#5 Wilderzar Same scenario here as far as having had his chances already, but he's honest enough with this kind and seems in line to land another share if he holds that form again. Reasonable alternative.
#2 Question Mark Dropper was never really involved in the debut run, but he's down in class out of that special weight spot and might offer something a bit more competitive today.
Race Summary Top two are both horses who have had a bunch of chances at this level, but When in Rome actually rolled home here last season in a similar enough spot before getting DQ'ed for a positive test, and more importantly he stepped up well with winners a couple times before that test came back. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the comeback -- wouldn't be surprised if he drilled these.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7
PICKS NOTES
#9 Lucky Penny Rose I think there might be just enough speed lined up to at least keep things honest up top, and I wonder if a patient, one-run finishing rid might give her a chance to land this at a decent price.
#4 Diva Power Stretchout player is the likely committed pace after rattling off three easy sprint wins in which she right up top the entire way, but I think she might take enough challenges along the way to find the stretch run taxing today.
#6 Aunt Bee She won a couple stakes races here last year, including this one, but she was in a LOT better form heading into the season then than she is right now. I don't know...but I don't think she's for me today.
Race Summary #8 Lofty Cowtown is another who has some appeal depending on the price, but Lucky Penny Rose might get a fair enough setup to see if she can settle and finish against this better group. She's still a question on class right now, so demand a midrange price.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
PICKS NOTES
#9 Blue Nomore Not totally sure here, but I do know that there are a couple runners down inside who are almost sure to take some cash, and I think the both might be in tricky positions early with some company. This guy was no threat in the debut run, but I think he can move forward off that and might be among those finishing best late. Upside at an OK number?
#1 Gunner Gabriel Debuter gets the fence for the first try, but the barn wins at about 24% with this type locally and might have him ready enough to go. Would tread with care if the price gets short, though -- that nice stat comes along with a noticeable negative ROI.
#2 Dial Direct He already has a bit of proven tactical speed and should be right in the mix again early on with these, but the price surely gets short while dropping back in with friends, and I'm not 100% sold on exactly how much he wants to finish off a race just yet. Obvious threat, but the barn is about 13% with a big negative ROI in these races.
Race Summary Blue Nomore got past a couple horses and made what I would call a mild move before staying on at one pace in the debut try, and I'm hoping that ability to finish will work in his favor today if a couple of these hook up with the likely chalk early.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

Laurel Park - Race #3
PICKS NOTES
#1 SAVOY (12-1) Late-running longshot gets pace to run at, looks to pad $222k bankroll for new barn.
#4 JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT (4-1) Arrives after pair of easy wins at Delaware in his last three go-rounds.
#8 NOTTOWAY (2-1) Won 3 of his last 5 starts at 5-1/2F – all as the short-priced favorite.
Race Summary SAVOY lacked speed and got up for second behind the 6-to-5 and 5-to-1 winners at 6F, then unwound too late on the cutback to today’s distance. He projects an ideal trip in a speed-laden field and offers plenty of value for a win and place bet.

Laurel Park - Race #4
PICKS NOTES
#12 SWAN LAKE (3-1) Good speed, good spot, good company lines, early position will be the key.
#8 GHOSTLY PRINCE (9-5) Rallied for a win and two seconds at three New York tracks recently.
#1 GRAND PICK (5-1) Won 4 of last 9 route attempts but tries the lawn for the first time.
Race Summary SWAN LAKE, a three-time turf winner facing mostly nw/3 types, has enough speed to get position from post 12 and factor throughout. He met the likes of stakes winner Smithwick’s Spice (9-35, $445k) and multiple stakes-placed There Are No Words (4-17, $306k) recently. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #7
PICKS NOTES
#7 SALOON (5-1) In top form, can continue it off Farrior claim at distance which he romped twice.
#8 TAKE A HINT (4-1) Maintained ultra-consistent form as a gelding, never offers much price.
#9 AMITY ROAD (7-2) Didn’t carry-over Monmouth form on return to town, deserves another chance.
Race Summary SALOON was a troubled start from winning his third consecutive race on the class rise. He jumps right into the allowance ranks for a high percentage claim barn and offers more betting value. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Thursday November 16, 2023
AQUEDUCT

Andy Serling
Race 1 5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2 7 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 3 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 4 1 - 2 - 1A - 8 - 4
Race 5 8 - 11 - 9 - 10
Race 6 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 7 3 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 8 7 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 9 9 - 12 - 4 - 11

Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2 8 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 5 12 - 11 - 8 - 2
Race 6 6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 7 7 - 10 - 4 - 3
Race 8 7 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 9 5 - 9 - 4 - 11

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Thursday, November 16
by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 5 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 9 - 12 - 11 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 1 - 10
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 12 - 9 - 4 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 2

It’s hard to trust anyone in this $30k conditioned claimer. The horses who look most immediately appealing are the three favorites, and I won’t be surprised when they’re successful here. They just all want to be forwardly placed, and it does feel like this pace has the potential to heat up. I don’t trust Three Zero (#3) on a fast track. He was a “last time” horse when he nearly got it done switching back to dirt, but that was a soft spot where the pace was moderate. It’s hard to see him getting away with a similar trip with Camm’ Duke (#7) in here. Face Abbario (#1) and Mudville Nine (#5) are a little more appealing to me. The former has run well in his limited dirt sprint starts, but Michelle Nevin is getting him from a pretty potent trainer, so I wonder if he’ll hold his form. Mudville Nine didn’t have a major excuse last time, but he has at least taken a step forward for Rob Atras and seems somewhat reliable. My top pick is Buckortwo (#2). Some may be inclined to label this a turf horse running on the wrong surface. However, he actually ran surprisingly well in his lone dirt attempt at Saratoga in August. Though he was beaten 11 lengths, that was a much tougher field and he was right in the mix at the quarter pole before fading going a distance that is obviously too far for him. While he does have more of a turf pedigree overall, full-siblings Dancing Buck and Mz Big Bucks have both won on dirt. He’s been in a few wrong spots recently, but he’s actually been in decent form. Now he receives needed class relief, and he should get the right trip from just off the pace.

Fair Value:
#2 BUCKORTWO, at 4-1 or greater


RACE 3

I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this race with limited form on which to base opinions. I could envision Ekwanok (#4) taking money by default. She’s run some competitive speed figures and was staying on pretty well going 6 furlongs two back before encountering a tougher field last time. Yet I’m not convinced that she necessarily has to get better with added distance, and others appear to have more upside. The interesting new face to consider is Practical Royalty (#3), a second time starter for Linda Rice. She feels like the classic Rice runner who was just getting some experience on the wrong surface in her debut. She showed tactical speed that day before fading after a wide trip. She’s likely to do better here with that experience under her belt, and she’s certainly bred for these conditions as a half-sister to Grade 1-winning dirt router Meltanonin. I just wouldn’t want to take too short a price on a horse who still has some things to prove. My top pick is Munny Grab (#5). I just view her as the most likely winner of this race based on her overall progression. She ran like a horse who needed her debut going shorter, and she took a step forward last time going 7 furlongs. She was never beating the superior winner that day, but she did finish gamely after having to awkwardly alter course in upper stretch. Her dam was a dirt route winner who was stakes-placed, so the distance isn’t supposed to be an issue. Over 5 years, Horacio De Paz is 9 for 30 (30%, $2.44 ROI) with horses stretching out to a dirt route for the first time.

Fair Value:
#5 MUNNY GRAB, at 2-1 or greater


RACE 4

My primary opinion in this $35k conditioned claimer is that I didn’t want to settle for a short price on the Rudy Rodriguez entry of Howzyourcashflow (#1) and Chasing Daylight (#1A). It’s pretty obvious that both runners have a chance to win, and I prefer the upside of Howzyourcashflow. Yet they’re going to be bet down as a coupled pair, ensuring poor value. They also both want to be forwardly placed and it does appear that there’s plenty of pace signed on. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could also work against Jolly Miss Jill (#2). She did win from a stalking position last time, but did so from an outside post position. The rail draw doesn’t seem ideal for her, and she’s another who figures to be a short price as she makes her first start off the claim for Rob Atras. I wanted to get a little more creative with some horses who might rally from off the pace. The most obvious closer is Amity Island (#8), who was rallying for second behind Jolly Miss Jill last time. She actually got a fair pace setup that day, but just ran out of ground going 7 furlongs. The stretch-out to a mile figures to suit her, and she’s also making her second start off a layoff for a new trainer. She has prior races that put her in the mix, and she might be rounding back into form. My top pick is the Parx shipper Moonboots (#4). The one-mile distance is a bit of a question mark for this filly, but she might have more success stretching out around one turn. She had no issues getting 7 furlongs last time, rallying for second behind a horse who has won 4 of her last 7 starts. She made a nice middle move up the rail two back before flattening out around two turns. Unlike most of these, she’s been facing allowance horses, and this will mark just the second time she’s ever raced for a claiming tag. Carla Morgan doesn’t send many horses to New York, but she did win a race at Saratoga back in 2017 with a 13-1 shot.

Fair Value:
#4 MOONBOOTS, at 9-1 or greater
#8 AMITY ISLAND, at 8-1 or greater


RACE 5

This $14k conditioned claimer is one of the most confusing races on the card. There are a few runners with back class, but they’re generally coming off poor efforts. That includes Khafre (#11), who might go favored based on his overall resume of superior performances. However, it’s been a while since he’s put forth a competitive effort, and his last dirt race back in June was abysmal. He did appear to take a step in the right direction on turf last time, but it’s unclear if that will translate to this surface. Then you have the pair of Linda Rice runners, who are both difficult to read. Ski Patrol (#10) appears to be in better form off his win last time, but I wonder if he’s a turf horse who just handled a sloppy, sealed track. Harrowed dirt could be a bigger hurdle for him, and this is also a tougher spot despite the lower claiming tag. Commerce Comet (#8) seems like the Rice runner that could offer greater appeal. She has great stats with this kind of dropdown off the claim. However, he lands in a race where there’s other speed to deal with, and the only race that really makes him a standout here is a victory against soft competition at Horseshoe Indy two back. I considered a couple of alternatives, who are basically polar opposites. Big Save (#12) has some class questions to answer after winning a $6,250 claimer two back. However, he seems like a 3-year-old who’s improving for Wayne Potts. He was closing well up the inside last time and seems likely to put forth another strong effort in his third start off the layoff. He might not be good enough but least he seems to be heading in the right direction. My top pick is Counterfeitcurrency (#9), who obviously fits on class but appears to be in terrible form. The good news for him is that this class relief might be even more pronounced than it appears at first glance. He faced a deceptively strong field of $20k open claimers last time. I wish he had done a little more running in that spot, but now he’s taking the blinkers off and dropping. Going back through his starts prior to that, he faced group after group of runners who are superior to the field he’s meeting here. Derek Ryan can win with prices on this circuit, and the horse is supposed to get a decent pace setup.

Fair Value:
#9 COUNTERFEITCURRENCY, at 8-1 or greater
#12 BIG SAVE, at 8-1 or greater


RACE 7

I’m not trying to beat Be of Courage (#7), who is just getting logical class relief as he moves back into New York-bred company. He’s been stuck at this N1X allowance level for quite some time, but his performances have gradually been improving over the past several months. He just missed when closing into a moderate pace at Saratoga on Aug. 27. He was then unlucky in his most recent start at this level on Sep. 17, encountering traffic while trying to rally up the rail in a race dominated by the leaders. The connections then got too ambitious trying a pair of tougher open company races. He actually outran his odds both times, putting in an especially encouraging effort last time, just missing second behind the stakes-quality Redistricting. A repeat of that 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him awfully tough for this field to beat. He also might be a bigger price than his form merits, due to the lower profile connections. One of his main rivals is Lord Flintshire (#10), but he’s tough to trust as a win candidate, having finished second on 8 occasions, including in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just seems to have trouble finding the winner’s circle despite maintaining solid form. Furthermore, he got very good trips in each of his last two starts, and now he’s drawn outside. Shinsun (#4) is another who has settled for minor awards recently, but at least he has a little more upside as a lightly raced sort. He was closing just ahead of Be of Courage when they met at this level on Sep. 17, and finished well to get up for third in a race that didn’t’ feature much pace. His lack of early speed just often leaves him with too much to do, so he’s dependent on them going quickly up front. Lt. Mitchell (#1) is the one new face at this level that I would consider. He beat a weaker field of maidens last time at Saratoga, but he had shown more ability in prior starts. He possesses dangerous tactical speed from the rail, and Linda Rice has a knack for keeping horses like this in good form once they start having success.

Fair Value:
#7 BE OF COURAGE, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 9

Chad Brown holds a pretty strong hand in this maiden finale, sending out the likely favorite and an interesting alternative.Right to Win (#4) figures to attract plenty of support after showing some progression from race-to-race this spring into summer. He’s kept good company, and seems capable of another step forward as he returns from a layoff. It is worth noting that this extended break since his last race wasn’t planned – he’s been entered and rained off the turf multiple times. I just thought Take Me to Jimmy (#9) was a little more interesting at what should be a better price. Heavily supported in both starts as a 2-year-old, he broke slowly and made a premature move on debut before hitting his best stride too late in a forwardly-dominated race in his second start. He’s been off for a long time, but Chad Brown is 23 for 70 (31%, $2.10 ROI) off 300-600 day layoffs in turf routes over the past 5 years. They’re the two horses to beat, but I was intrigued by a runner trying this surface for the first time. Champagne Juan (#12) showed some promise when gamely staying on for second in his debut on dirt before putting in a dull effort off the layoff last time. Yet his pedigree suggests he’s just needed the turf all along. Justify is proving to be a strong turf influence, getting 16% turf winners in a 165-runner sample. The dam achieved all of her success on turf and was Grade 1-placed routing on that surface. Her only winning foal is a turf winner. Physically, this horse has the loping, bounding stride of one that should appreciate the surface switch. Christophe Clement does well with first time turfers overall, but he has much better stats in sprints than he does in routes. That said, this horse is supposed to be a fair price. He has to work out a trip from the outside post position, but least the rails are out on the inner turf, and there’s a long run to the clubhouse turn.

Fair Value:
#12 CHAMPAGNE JUAN, at 6-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

SCOTT SHAPIRO
EXPERT SELECTIONS

November 16, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 2-4-6-1-3

2 MAN ON THE MOON Has two-turn speed, but likely to sit just off on turnback
4 BEST OF GREELEY Looks to make it 3 in row in 1st start off claim for Morse
6 INDIAN GULCH Runs this group down in lane if pace is contentious

RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 1/6-5-2

1 ALTERED SHOT Takes them gate to wire on class drop under Saez
6 FASHION RAGE Freshened up by Asmussen; completes exacta much like on 8/6
5 MEGAN'S CLARA Has run some of her best races in the Ville

RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 4/6-2-1

4 ALEXANDER HELIOS Ran too good to lose in last; finally breaks thru for maiden score
6 ICE TIME Likely to pass tiring rivals like he did on 9/28
2 TIZ WICKED STRONG Lacks early zip, but has proven to appreciate more ground

RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 3-5-2-9

3 YES TO CHAMPAGNE Goes 2 sprints to route for Wilkes; ran into solid winners in 1st 2 tries
5 NEOM BEACH Likely to be involved early on stretch out for Asmussen
2 FUNDAMENTALLY Took little public support in 1st two starts; but benefits from surface switch

RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 3-4-6/1-5-2

3 HURRY HURRY Finds favorable spot after strong performance at KEE last month
4 LUNA VIEJA Could be tough to catch if able to control tempo again
6 INEXORABLE Stretches back out for Asmussen, has earned 2 of his 3 wins at CD

RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 3-4-7-1-2

3 ICICLES Makes 3rd start of form cycle for hot Ennis barn
4 ITSABLINGTHING Freshened up after wide voyage on day when inside was place to be
7 CRUSHED ICE Drops into restricted MSW ranks after poor effort vs better at KEE

RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 10/9-4-6-1-3-2

10 POBLANO Works out perfect stalking trip after strong 2nd at KEE last month
9 TOWER BRIDGE Makes 1st start for barn that thrives w/new additions to their stable
4 NEW BEAT Will appreciate getting back to two turns

RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 4-6-11-7

4 HIGH CLASS Benfits most from move from turf to dirt
6 LADY GOLDSTART Tries fast main track for 1st time this year in initial try for Maker
11 TALES OF HOME Draws in off AE list for Stewart

RACE 9
5:05 PM
Selections: 4-8-12-9-7-10-1

4 MYDIXIELANDDELIGHT Barn ran 2nd w debut MCL in Wed finale; attracts Saez in 1st start
8 SWEET MIMI Skimmed rail in last, but was outfinished by Walsh FTS
12 CONTROLLED TEMPER Looks to get back to debut where she ran an 80 BRIS

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 16

Nov. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	5	Paris Style	J Alvarado
PLACE	12-1	3	Tooshay	T McCarthy
SHOW	5-2	2	Dreaming of Mo	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-5	4	African Waters	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Allegedly	K Davis
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Three Zero	J A Gomez
PLACE	7-2	5	Mudville Nine	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	1	Face Abarrio	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Will Be Famous	M Olver
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Playingwithmatches	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Buckortwo	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 MUNNY GRAB
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Munny Grab	L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE	2-1	4	Ekwanok	K Carmouche
SHOW	10-1	8	Poseidons Mist	E Ruiz
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Miss Bourbon	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Scarlets Dream	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Saving Memories	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #4 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 HOWZYOURCASHFLOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Howzyourcashflow	L R Rivera Jr.
PLACE	5-2	2	Jolly Miss Jill	K Carmouche
SHOW	9-2	6	Vintage	D Davis
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Angelas Party Girl	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	8-5	1A	Chasing Daylight	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Diamond Collector	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #5 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	8	Commerce Comet	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	2	Tommy Gun	J A Gomez
SHOW	3-1	11	Khafre	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Ski Patrol	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	12	Big Save	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Counterfeitcurency	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/11 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX
RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 FORTUNES NEPHEW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Fortunes Nephew	K Carmouche
PLACE	8-1	3	Scherzando	J Castellano
SHOW	3-1	2	Beary Funny	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Clever Forever	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Caldo Candy	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Twirling Vine	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #7 $75,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	9	Rocket and Roll	J Rosario
PLACE	4-1	10	Lord Flintshire	J Castellano
SHOW	3-1	7	Be of Courage	R Silvera
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Courageoous Oh La	N Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	15	Bourbon Chase	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	16	Leo and Royal	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/10 BOX, 5/7/10 BOX
RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	8	Majestic Return	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-2	6	Tempermental	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	15-1	1	Carbon	E Cancel
WILD CARD	2-1	7	Timely Conquest	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Cousin Kristi	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Fontanafredda	M Franco
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #9 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	11	War Officer	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	4	Right to Win	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	20-1	10	One Bite	A Adorno
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Take Me to Jimmy	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Heart N Soul	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Nostalgic One	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/11 BOX, 4/9/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 16

Nov. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 TIGER MOON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Tiger Moon	J R Leparoux
PLACE	7-2	6	Indian Gulch	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-1	4	Best of Greeley	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Man On the Moon	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Secret Pocket	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	P H Factor	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $62,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Megans Clara	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	1	Altered Shot	L Saez
SHOW	4-1	6	Fashion Rage	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Dealing Justice	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Need Some Money	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Backyard Money	G Saez
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ALEXANDER HELIOS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Alexander Helios	T Gaffalione
PLACE	7-2	1	Ben Franklin	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	6-1	7	Bearings	M Garcia
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Ice Time	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Tiz Wicked Strong	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Game Keeper	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	14	Whimsically	F Arrieta
PLACE	5-2	5	Neom Beach	L Saez
SHOW	3-1	11	Luz Divina	L Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Fantastical	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	On the Nile	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Kiss Blue	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 14-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/11/14 BOX, 1/5/11 BOX
RACE #5 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	6	Inexorable	K J Asmussen
PLACE	5-1	1	St. Elmo	G Corrales
SHOW	5-1	4	Luna Vieja	E Morales
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Whats Up Doc	G Ashton
ALTERNATE 1	9-5	3	Hurry Hurry	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Southern Crush	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Icicles	E Morales
PLACE	4-1	4	Itsablingthing	F Peterson
SHOW	7-2	1	Vicki Rose	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Ladan	J Elliott
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Crushed Ice	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Market Profile	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 POBLANO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	10	Poblano	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	6	Pigalle	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	7-2	1	Flashy Lass	M Chuan
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Lexa	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Dear Lady	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Her Ladyship	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/10 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Lady Goldstart	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	4	High Class	L Saez
SHOW	4-1	3	American Starlet	G Corrales
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Current Climate	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Lauras Charm	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	11	Tales of Home	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #9 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	12	Controlled Temper	T Gaffalione
PLACE	3-1	8	Sweet Mimi	F Geroux
SHOW	12-1	13	Youre Forever	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Sister Ella	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Mydixielanddelight	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Spiritual Lady	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 12-8 BOX, 8-13 BOX, 13-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/12/13 BOX, 7/8/13 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - November 16

Nov. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $38,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Salty Sue	F De La Cruz
PLACE	7-5	1	Dabney	S E Bermudez
SHOW	6-1	6	Abra Abra	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Lucky Linda W	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	4	Ten Lil Victories	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Comp	J Morales
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #2 $7,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	1	Sight to Behold	R A Prescott
PLACE	2-1	2	Brisbane Road	A Burgos
SHOW	3-1	6	Maggie E	A Centeno
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Cangua	J Morales
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Baseball Pegge	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Absconder	M Burnham
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:49 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	El Cerrito	M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE	5-2	6	Lieutenant Jack	A Jimenez
SHOW	7-2	8	Jay Bird	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Pure Cane Sugar	A Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Showdown Justice	A Pusac
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Classy Ghost	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #4 $42,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	1	Ace Reporter	S E Bermudez
PLACE	9-5	4	Image Run	E Esquivel
SHOW	6-1	5	Rileys Redemption	O Mojica
WILD CARD	15-1	2	Botox Katie	G Terraza
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Buoy	M Franklin
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Mintchocolatechip	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #5 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 JUST BE QUIET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Just Be Quiet	E E Perez
PLACE	8-1	10	Stephanieswarrior	A Lezcano
SHOW	7-2	9	El Kown	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Our Girl Flint	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Seau nTap	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	12	Perfect Manhattan	A Pusac
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 9/10/11 BOX
RACE #6 $38,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	12-1	8	Monumentaljustice	A Pusac
PLACE	10-1	11	Rocket Docket	M Anderson
SHOW	4-1	6	Humble Warrior	S E Bermudez
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Jacks Summer	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Devils Gotta Go	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Sargent Hulka	A Burgos
* EXACTA: 8-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/11 BOX, 4/6/11 BOX
RACE #7 $5,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 PHILIP SNOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	4	Philip Snow	J D Ramos
PLACE	2-1	5	Turbonator	F De La Cruz
SHOW	10-1	2	San Ronin	O Villarreal
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Gray Mike	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Big Anchor	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Glorified Winner	M Burnham
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #8 $38,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Silver Sterling	S E Bermudez
PLACE	7-2	8	Kingsbury Road	E E Perez
SHOW	5-2	1	Tree of Liberty	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Concentration	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Unbridled Slope	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	6	Castille	R A Prescott
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX
RACE #9 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Explosive Skies	S E Bermudez
PLACE	8-1	4	Out of Promises	G Romero
SHOW	5-2	2	Brody Mo	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Empire Sunrise	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Mean Elenita	M Burnham
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Icey Angel	J Morales
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #10 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 ROCKIN JUSTICE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Rockin Justice	A P Ulloa
PLACE	8-1	1	Cambiaso	G Terraza
SHOW	8-1	4	Johnnys Moment	O Mojica
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Simon Peter	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Celerity	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	3	Smokin Hot	E Esquivel
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #11 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:51 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	3	No Joking Matter	M Burnham
PLACE	8-1	2	Angelsndisguise	F De La Cruz
SHOW	15-1	1	Allie Maes Revenge	E E Perez
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Mygaljustice	J Figueroa
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Santiva Diva	J Morales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Lilmiss Sassypants	S E Bermudez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #12 $17,000 MAIDEN 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	9	Hf Pick Six	R D Pina
PLACE	12-1	10	Zoomin Lil Twist	G Vazquez-Gomez
SHOW	6-1	11	Mg to Fancy Macho	L D Martinez
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Aprollific Jess	M Munoz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Credible	L D Martinez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	A Little Bit Alexis	J M Ruiz
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/11 BOX, 7/10/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Power Play of the Day

Charles Town

Race #2 #2 Sing a Lullabye 4/5

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Air Force -16 over Lindenwood

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Thursday Free Selection: Wright State Raiders/Indiana Hoosiers over 149 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Missouri Tigers - 1

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins - 155