Sunday 11/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • ConleyPicks
    Senior Member
    • Aug 2020
    • 16966

    #16
    Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.



    Race 5 - Post: 1:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$10500 - NON-WINNERS $6,000
    CONSORTIUM CHOICES
    # 2 TRANQUILITY K 5/2
    # 5 MANNY L 9/2
    # 3 MR CONTESTANT 4/1
    All signs point to TRANQUILITY K for the pick. She's competing in good form, recording sharp speed ratings. An excellent choice. Driver-trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this mare breaking away from the group. With a 49pct return on investment, this driver-conditioner has produced very good win prices of late for players. MANNY L - The wagering panel knows that speed is King in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice score. Could unquestionably best this grouping given the 81 speed figure achieved in his last contest. MR CONTESTANT - Heads into this race with great TrackMaster class statistics in relationship to the group - worth a look.

    Comment

    • ConleyPicks
      Senior Member
      • Aug 2020
      • 16966

      #17
      Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cumberland Raceway

      Always check program numbers.
      Odds shown are morning line odds.



      Race 11 - Post: 2:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 56 - Purse:$3600 - TM RATING 58 OR LESS
      CONSORTIUM CHOICES
      # 7 GUSSY'S DRAGON 3/1
      # 8 EINHORN IS FINKLE 18/1
      # 5 AIR FORCE GRAD 6/1
      GUSSY'S DRAGON looks nice to best this group of horses. Overall stats look really strong. Can't throw her out of the picture. With a really good 52 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will most definitely be a factor in this gathering. Clearly think these two have a special working relationship. Harrington sending the horse out means a great chance to get the win. EINHORN IS FINKLE - This mare getting the win wouldn't be impossible, a chance. AIR FORCE GRAD - Is a substantial win contender given the 53 TrackMaster speed fig from his most recent outing.


      Comment

      • ConleyPicks
        Senior Member
        • Aug 2020
        • 16966

        #18
        Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

        P# PP HORSE NAME M/L DRIVER - WIN% POINTS
        RACE 12
        6 6 MIKI THE CLOWN 3/1 Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 28 512.02
        3 3 SMOTHASTENESEWISKY 7/2 Davis, Billy Jr - 16 509.26
        2 2 ROCKABILLYCOCKSHUT 9/2 Hanners, Luke - 13 505.21
        4 4 APPLE MARTINI 4/1 Stahl, Ryan - 9 497.78
        1 1 VIBRENT KALLY 9/2 Merriman, Aaron - 24 493.31
        8 8 ANNE BONNEY N 25/1 Lems, Chris - 11 482.48
        7 7 BETTER DAYS AHEAD 15/1 Ebersole, Luke - 9 464.09
        9 9 SAGE IVY 25/1 Grismore, Greg - 6 453.35
        5 5 JUMPING JILLYBEAN 25/1 Kash, Keith Jr - 6 425.90

        Comment

        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 16966

          #19
          Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

          Always check program numbers.
          Odds shown are morning line odds.



          Race 6 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$6100 - N/W $400.
          CONSORTIUM CHOICES
          # 2 SPRINGBRIDGE JIM 8/5
          # 5 DO YOU SEE IT 12/1
          # 4 HOOTER SHOOTER 4/1
          Hard not to back SPRINGBRIDGE JIM as the top pick in this race. He's performing in fine form, recording strong speed figures. An excellent pick. Comes into this race with very good TrackMaster class markings relative to the field of horses - could be worth a shot. Is a substantial choice given the 70 speed rating from his most recent competition. DO YOU SEE IT - A competitive win percentage has been earned by nice horses beginning from the 5 position. HOOTER SHOOTER - Substantial driver-trainer markings make this entrant a formidable choice. Most definitely will be putting mucho dinero down this time. You have to love a horse that wins a lot, very impressive win percentage.

          Comment

          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 16966

            #20
            Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrah's Philadelphia

            P# PP HORSE NAME M/L DRIVER - WIN% POINTS
            RACE 13
            2 2 HEART MATTERS 7/2 Schadel, Todd - 22 503.22
            1 1 ANDOVERTHEWINNINGS 4/1 Miller, Marcus - 7 484.75
            6 6 SPY BOOTH 3/1 Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 18 484.13
            5 5 CREEMORE 9/1 Mccarthy, Todd - 18 482.96
            8 8 CRAZYCAT 9/1 Miller, David - 17 478.09
            4 4 KEYSTONE THUNDER 10/1 Warren, Ridge - 14 444.83
            3 3 MASSIVE MATTER 7/2 Ahle, Johnathan - 9 438.18
            7 7 WAVELIKEAQUEEN 12/1 Pantaleano, Jim - 11 381.53

            Comment

            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 16966

              #21
              BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

              Del Mar - Race #6
              PICKS NOTES
              #5 Cocktail Cutie Hoping the dropper below will take enough cash to help keep the price playable, as she gets back around one turn on the main track while getting some class relief. Capable with something similar to her local summer efforts.
              #9 Envisioned Could easily see her landing this while finding a softer bunch in this second start. The wide draw should work in her favor to use her pace to force the issue.
              #1 Signora Vittoria Not much from her so far, but there are a couple of modest finishing efforts on her page that might allow her to clunk up for a piece of this while getting in for a tag for the first time. She benefits if all the potential chase-and-fade types go all in.
              Race Summary Cocktail Cutie might have found the right group while getting back to a level where she was pretty competitive earlier this year over the local footing. Think Signora Vittoria has some price appeal on wider tickets.

              Del Mar - Race #8
              PICKS NOTES
              #4 Stronghold Think his Kentucky tries so far stack up pretty well with these, and he's got the right kind of style to settle in just behind the speed. Playable as the second choice?
              #5 Nysos Yeah, he's probably supposed to win this if the impressive debut was any indication, but I think there is at least a little bit of potential company up top, so I gave the edge to one I know can finish a bit. That said, he might be fun to watch at a short price.
              #3 Wine Me Up Never quite sure how the pace will shake out when three of the four likely speed/prompting types come out of the same barn, but some class relief probably isn't going to hurt the cause after catching a winner who ran huge in the Breeders' Cup earlier this month.
              Race Summary Stronghold has appealing form while shipping in from Kentucky, and he has had a few weeks to get acclimated to Southern California. Nysos will be the buzz horse here, but I think the top choice has some upside, too.

              Del Mar - Race #9
              PICKS NOTES
              #10 Hill Sixteen He was pretty one paced in the debut effort, but I think that kind of run might translate a bit better around two turns while stretching out at second asking. Think there is some midrange price appeal here.
              #9 Dark Marcus It's never really a surprise when one of these nibbling types finally punches home to graduate (often making it look easy, too), so he's the kind who is tough to include after a lot of chances, but also a pretty scary one to leave off the tickets. Tough call -- depends on the multi-race work you've already done on the way here.
              #9 Antibes Not quite sure what to make of the non effort last out, but the price should probably get at least a little bit better after the clunker at 5/2. Another tricky call for me.
              Race Summary Hill Sixteen will be an honest enough price to give him a look with some upside, and a bit more modest route tempo might help him relax and find his place in the race.

              Comment

              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 16966

                #22
                TALKING HORSES
                Sunday November 19, 2023
                AQUEDUCT
                Andy Serling
                Race 1 6 - 5 - 3 - 1
                Race 2 7 - 1 - 2 - 4
                Race 3 6 - 5 - 3 - 2
                Race 4 6 - 9 - 4 - 1
                Race 5 7 - 11 - 9 - 4
                Race 6 8 - 5 - 2 - 1
                Race 7 5 - 7 - 2 - 6
                Race 8 4 - 1 - 7 - 2
                Race 9 2 - 7 - 14 - 13 - 3 - 12

                Comment

                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 16966

                  #23
                  Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 19
                  by David Aragona

                  AQUEDUCT

                  Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

                  PICKS

                  Race 1: 1 - 6 - 3 - 5
                  Race 2: 7 - 2 - 1 - 3
                  Race 3: 3 - 6 - 5 - 2
                  Race 4: 9 - 4 - 6 - 10
                  Race 5: 7 - 4 - 9 - 10
                  Race 6: 8 - 7 - 5 - 2
                  Race 7: 1 - 6 - 8 - 2
                  Race 8: 4 - 1 - 2 - 7
                  Race 9: 2 - 12 - 7 - 14 - 13

                  FAIR VALUE PLAYS
                  (Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


                  RACE 2

                  I have little desire to take a short price on either likely favorite in this maiden special weight for New York-breds. Foxy Cara (#2) owns the best overall form, but she’s just had so many chances to break through at this level and continues to settle for minor awards. She’s clearly the one to beat. Scoring Chance (#1) is the other filly who figures to take money, as she makes her debut for Jorge Abreu. This barn does well with its first time starters, but she’s going to take money by default as the new face in this lineup. She also has Irad Ortiz aboard, so perhaps she’ll even go favored over her more experienced rival. I wanted to find some alternative, I think Monetary Monarch (#7) is viable. This filly doesn’t figure to get as heavily supported due to the low-profile connections, but this is the kind of race a lesser barn can win. She actually showed some ability on debut, but just seemed like one who probably needed the experience. She was off a bit slowly, but advanced willingly down the backstretch and into the turn before just flattening out a bit once asked for her best in the lane. She figures to be more professional this time with the addition of blinkers and Lasix.

                  Fair Value:
                  #7 MONETARY MONARCH, at 4-1 or greater


                  RACE 3

                  There’s no doubt that Bendoog (#6) is the horse to beat as he makes his U.S. debut following a campaign in Dubai. This U.S bred son of Gun Runner obviously has ability, having finished second in two rounds of the Maktoum Challenge this past winter, once to eventual Dubai World Cup runner-up Algiers. He himself competed in the World Cup, but faded after traveling well to the quarter pole. He’s lacked some finish in most of those races going longer in Dubai, so this turnback to a mile is supposed to suit him. His worktab looks pretty strong for the return as he makes his first start for Bill Mott. However, he’s totally unproven over American dirt, and he’s going to take plenty of money in an allowance race that looks a bit soft for the level. Many will consider his main rival to be Aggregation (#2), but I’m not thrilled with this horse stepping up in class. He beat a decent field of New York-breds last time, but did so controlling on the front end. I’ll be surprised if he gets away without pressure here, since both Daddy Knows (#5) and Bendoog have speed. That 7-year-old Ray Handal runner also has prior races that make him competitive here, and he was in great form prior to heading to the sidelines earlier this year. I’m just not sure we’re going to see his best performance off a layoff. The other Ray Handal trainee interests me more at what could be a better price. Fromanothamutha (#3) has looked cheaper than this at different points in his career, but he seems to be maturing into a better horse since getting gelded this spring. He progressed to win his starter allowance condition prior to the layoff, and then couldn’t make up any ground in a forwardly dominated race at Saratoga in August. I thought his last effort was a big step in the right direction. He always traveled well in behind the speeds, but was stuck in the pocket, and might have won if he had found a clear path in upper stretch. That was a day where forwardly placed horses were dominating, he did well to rally through kickback past rivals. He seems to be thriving right now and might be capable of an upset if the favorite is a little rusty off the bench.

                  Fair Value:
                  #3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA, at 4-1 or greater


                  RACE 4

                  The three main players exit the Oct. 27 race at this level won by Fake Celebrity. Slapintherace (#6) was the beaten favorite in that spot, but he ran pretty well even in defeat. He would be awfully tough for this field to handle if able to recapture the form that we saw from himat Saratoga two back when earning a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind Laurel Valley. However, he’s a horse who has needed significant time between each start, and I wonder what we’re going to get as he now squeezes in another race three weeks later at the end of turf season. Betterluckythangood (#4) rallied past him into second last time, putting in a strong effort in his first start following a 5-month layoff. He did get a great trip from Dylan Davis, saving ground on the turns before angling out in upper stretch. Yet he clearly took a step forward with the switch to grass, and he still has upside in just his third career start. My top pick is that race’s fourth-place finisher, Domination (#9). I thought this horse was interesting on debut based on his 2-year-old sales workout, where he looked like a turf-meant type. He certainly appreciated the lawn, but just seemed like a horse who needed that debut experience. Jose Ortiz gave him an educational trip. He always traveled in the bridle but was reserved towards the back of the pack early. He clearly had plenty of run left in upper stretch, but started lugging in once asked to produce a rally. He ultimately came through traffic willingly, but continued to race greenly to the wire. I think he’s going to build on that performance this time, and I won’t be surprised when he shows more speed in his second start. Todd Pletcher is 24 for 103 (22%, $2.43 ROI) with maiden second time starters making their second route attempt on turf over 5 years.

                  Fair Value:
                  #9 DOMINATION, at 2-1 or greater


                  RACE 5

                  This Central Park drew a strong and competitive field of 2-year-olds. Spirit Prince (#9) might be the horse to beat despite still being a maiden after four starts. He’s had trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but has run well every time, placing in three stakes events this summer and fall. He did disappoint as the heavy favorite last time in the Awad, but he was put in a difficult situation that day, having to chase down a run-off leader before trying to hold off closers. He might have moved a little too soon considering the fast pace. He makes sense here, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. Uncle Truly (#4) seems like another who could take money off a visually impressive victory at Woodbine, which earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He ran like a horse who needed his debut at Kentucky Downs, and the light bulb appeared to go on last time in Canada. He took a while to hit his best stride, but was really moving well with powerful, bounding strides through the final furlong as he pulled away from that group. He’s stepping up to face tougher this time, but he goes out for a dangerous barn. There are other recent maiden winners to consider, including Frontline Warrior (#10), who beat a solid field at Keeneland last time, and Buffoon (#11), who earned a strong 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his victory at that same venue. My top pick is the Chad Brown runner exiting a maiden victory. Walley World (#7) was surprisingly green on debut for a Chad Brown first time starter, reacting badly to the crop in upper stretch before getting slammed by a rival at the eighth pole. Chad put blinkers on for his second start and he looked like a completely different horse. He was far more engaged through the early stages of the race, but still rated kindly before producing his run. He forged to the lead in upper stretch and briefly looked as if he might get challenged before kicking on again, maintaining his speed through the wire. I get the sense there’s more talent here than the modest speed figure indicates. Chad Brown also has a knack for winning these races. He’s 10 for 31 (32%, $3.07 ROI) with last-out winners in 2-year-old turf route stakes over the past 5 years.

                  Fair Value:
                  #7 WALLEY WORLD, at 3-1 or greater


                  RACE 6

                  There’s plenty of guesswork to be done in this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. Most of the horses who figure to take money are first time starters, and they’re all mildly intriguing for different reasons. High Track (#5) worked in company last week with Leslie’s Rose, who seems live in the first race today. P Mutter Pickle (#2) attracts Irad Ortiz for connections not known for winning with firsters, so that figures to garner her some support. Brooklyn Dantz (#7) is another who could be ready on debut for Leah Gyarmati, who used to have a lot more success with these types. Her dam is a full-sister to G3 Schuylerville winner Georgie’s Angle, the dam of Grade 1 winner Cave Rock. I just didn’t want to take a short price on any of those guesses, and I do think there’s one particularly interesting horse with experience. Mel’s Baby Sister (#8) didn’t earn much of a speed figure on debut, but the performance is a lot more encouraging than it looks. She was off slowly and sluggish through the early stages. Yet she actually traveled with some interesting around the turn, and might have made a mild late impact if she hadn’t started lugging in through the stretch. If she can get over that greenness this time, she can make a much bigger late impact. That race has also proven to be more live than it looked at first glance. The runner-up came back to win with a vastly improved speed figure, and the fifth-place finisher also returned to improve in the same race.

                  Fair Value:
                  #8 MEL'S BABY SISTER, at 7-2 or greater


                  RACE 7

                  This Forever Together is a difficult puzzle to solve. Regal Realm (#8) is obviously the horse to beat, but she’s not the kind of favorite that I want to take at a short price. She took advantage of a rail that was carrying speed last time at Kentucky Downs when she got to control that race on the front end. She’s not a horse who needs the lead, and she did run well from just off the pace three back at Canterbury. Yet even her third-place finish in the De La Rose was pace aided, as she just followed the winner around the track through slow fractions. The problem with finding an alternative is that so many of them are coming off poor efforts. Malavath (#5) is the best horse in this race when she’s in form, but it’s hard to trust her based on her two efforts for the Christophe Clement barn this year. A $3.3 million purchase after her excellent Breeders’ Cup Mile effort last season, she just hasn’t looked like the same filly as a 4-year-old. Faith in Humanity (#7) is also coming off an inexplicably dull effort last time, as she had nothing when asked for run in upper stretch and was eased late. She’s had trouble staying on the racetrack over the past year, and I don’t trust her to rebound here, especially with other speed signed on. Chili Flag (#6) seems a little more trustworthy, but even she is coming off a disappointing loss as the odds-on favorite. Her stablemate Implicated did come out of that race to win a stakes in her next start, but I’m still not quite convinced Chili Flag is quite this good despite her strong speed figures. Graham Motion also has two horses entered. Some might prefer Cigamia (#2), who has Irish form that should translate well to this spot. Yet Motion hasn’t had as much success with his European shippers in recent season, and this filly has been a bit one-paced in her races overseas. I’m actually more interested in his other runner, Willakia (#1), at what should be a better price. She looks inferior at first glance, but at least she appears to be heading in the right direction in a race where so many others might be on the downswing. She was beaten by favorite Regal Realm when they met at Gulfstream back in February, but this filly had a much tougher trip that day. Since then she’s run well in three starts since returning from a layoff. She probably didn’t get much out of her facile return victory, and then tired over a course with give in it at Pimlico. Yet I thought she took another step forward last time at Keeneland, closing well for second behind the talented Saffron Moon, who would be a major player in here. She drew well and might fly under the radar.

                  Fair Value:
                  #1 WILLAKIA, at 7-1 or greater


                  RACE 9

                  I had a tough time making the morning line for this race, since two of the main players are drawn on the AE list. Among those in the main body of the field, Can’t Fool Me (#7) feels like the horse to beat on the basis of her last turf race, a victory against a solid starter allowance field at Saratoga. She was somewhat with the outside flow that day, but she still made an early move to take over and would be tough here if able to reproduce that effort. Many of her rivals have questions to answer. I wanted to stay away from the horses stretching out, such as Supers Lucky Lady (#10), who could take money off her debut win. She doesn’t strike me as one that will get better with distance. I am intrigued by Sail With the Wind (#12) getting back on the turf. She seemingly improved on dirt, but she didn’t have a fair chance when she made her debut on grass at Saratoga. That race was run during a driving rainstorm, and was dominated by forwardly placed horses. She also had trouble in the run to the clubhouse turn, getting put in tight quarters and bumped before settling far back in the pack. She has more of a turf pedigree, and is supposed to move up on this surface. The drawback is that her last race was so poor, and she didn’t draw well. My top pick is Lady of Thoroton (#2). She can be a bit of an all-or-nothing type, but she’s certainly capable of beating a field like this on her best day. There’s supposed to be plenty of pace in here with so many speed types and stretch-outs signed on, and that should held a filly who can sometimes get too rank in races with slower tempos. She ran exceptionally well last time at Saratoga, since she hopped up at the start and was off very slowly. Yet she still somehow made up a ton of ground to get up for fourth against a much stronger field than the one she meets here. A repeat of that effort would put her in the winner’s circle, if she can work out a trip.

                  Fair Value:
                  #2 LADY OF THOROTON, at 5-1 or greater
                  #12 SAIL WITH THE WIND, at 6-1 or greater

                  Comment

                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 16966

                    #24
                    SCOTT SHAPIRO
                    EXPERT SELECTIONS
                    Scott Shapiro is the Senior Racing Analyst for Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. He fell in love with thoroughbred racing when his father took him to Garden State Park in 1985 to see Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck race in the Jersey Derby instead of the Preakness Stakes. Scott graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1996 and is an avid NFL and PGA fan. His favorite horses are A.P. Indy, Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Victory Gallop, and Ghostzapper.

                    CHURCHILL DOWNS


                    November 19, 2023
                    Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.

                    Bet now at TwinSpires >

                    RACE 1
                    1:00 PM
                    Selections: 1-5-3

                    1 VANISHED Tried hard to wire in recent neck defeat in NY
                    5 MEDAGLIA FOREVER Fits extremely well, but has lacked will to win thus far
                    3 ENCLOSURE Makes 1st start for Mott after 3 tries in So Cal

                    RACE 2
                    1:30 PM
                    Selections: 5-6-1-7-4-8-3

                    5 TEE BURNS Dueled into defeat in last; back quickly for Hartman
                    6 PRISONER Freshened up & protected in 1st start off claim for Amoss
                    1 IMPLEMENTATION Cuts back & drops for Joseph

                    RACE 3
                    2:00 PM
                    Selections: 5-2-7-6

                    5 B WAYNE Has encountered much better in his 1st 2 career tries
                    2 STONE HARBOR Should make the lead under Saez after stalk & fade last month
                    7 MOR JAZZ Was caught wide throughout on 10/26; picks up pieces at price

                    RACE 4
                    2:30 PM
                    Selections: 4-7-6-5

                    4 CODE FOR SUCCESS Gets favorable setup for off pace style in 1st start in for tag
                    7 RUBY FOO Makes 1st start for Walden off 6+ month break; attracts Tyler
                    6 ROYAL BLOOD Never had fair shake when encountering traffic on 11/1

                    RACE 5
                    3:01 PM
                    Selections: 6-1-9-10-8-3-2

                    6 MAHJONG GIRL Half-sis to $400K+ earner Surly Furious; lures Saez
                    1 PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Holds experience edge over main rivals, but has lacked excuses in first 2 starts
                    9 MISCHIEF JAC Debuts for barn that has had a strong fall meet w/ limted starters

                    RACE 6
                    3:31 PM
                    Selections: 8-5-4-7-1

                    8 TREATY Drops in class in 1st start off claim for N Casse
                    5 SCHMOOZIN Returns to races for 1st time since August; freshened up by Cano
                    4 YONO Is just 1 for 19 dating back to start of '22, but should be finishing well

                    RACE 7
                    4:01 PM
                    Selections: 5/9-7-2

                    5 MIYAGI Took a ton of public support in extremely live MSW event at KEE
                    9 CARBONE Gives Asmussen strong 1-2 punch along with the experienced Shakin Loose
                    7 GOLDBRICK Exits same race as Miyagi where he flashed good gate speed; moves fwd here

                    RACE 8
                    4:33 PM
                    Selections: 14-9-11

                    14 SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Makes it two in a row over this racetrack for M Casse
                    9 RARIFY Exits live race at KEE & is one to beat, but could get overbet
                    11 LITTLE MOMBO Grinds away a minor share off the MTO list for Bauer

                    RACE 9
                    5:05 PM
                    Selections: 3-5-6-8-7-1

                    3 KNOW WHO YOU ARE Goes two sprints to route for Cowans; relishes added ground
                    5 TIS CHARMING Was easily handled by stablemate in last; gets favorable setup again
                    6 CASH ONLY Ran big in first start at CD, but needs to avoid getting caught in early tussle

                    Comment

                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 16966

                      #25
                      By Brad Free
                      BEST BET: Not A Sinner (5th race)
                      Del mar

                      First Race
                      1. Hurricane Cloud 2. Overdue 3. Flavius
                      HURRICANE CLOUD drops from a productive N2X turf mile to $40k claiming, and returns to the Del Mar turf on which he finished a
                      creditable fifth in his summer comeback. He raced too close to the pace before tiring last out, but is now reunited with Umberto Rispoli,
                      who rode him two starts back. The race 'CLOUD exits produced three next-out winners, three next-out runners-up. With a waiting ride, he
                      can mow them down. OVERDUE is a four-time winner on DMR turf, with a style that fits the pace scenario. Lots of speed here to set it up
                      for a come-from-behinder. OVERDUE had no shot last time in a slow-tempo turf mile won by the pacesetter. Different pace scenario here
                      to flatter his rally. FLAVIUS has not won in more than two years, but his recent form is decent including a runner-up finish in a turf stakes
                      here in summer. DOMINANT SOUL, DEPARTURE and TIZ PLUS all have speed.

                      Second Race
                      1. Tembo 2. Signofthecross 3. Sol Del Sur
                      TEMBO and SIGNOFTHECROSS, second and fourth last out in a similar low-level race, top this $8k claiming mile. TEMBO has more
                      tactical speed and is likely to get first run if/when the likely pacesetter in post 2 weakens. Recent races by TEMBO suggest he is distancechallenged, but he did win two route races early in his career (one dirt, one turf). SIGNOFTHECROSS lost ground last time finishing a
                      half-length behind the top choice. 'CROSS will be chugging away late. SOL DEL SUR is the aforementioned likely pacesetter breaking
                      from post 2. He stretches out from sprints and will lead as far as he can. 'SUR's third-place finish in his most recent start was flattered when
                      the one-two finishers won their next start.

                      Third Race
                      1. Beef Winslow 2. Lemon Sushi 3. Americaredwhiteblu
                      Up in class off a dominating N2L starter turf win at Santa Anita, BEEF WINSLOW can win again if he reproduces the effort. His win by
                      more than three lengths was his first start off the claim by Mark Glatt, the gelding smoked his final quarter-mile in an unreal :21.88
                      according to the race chart. Though he did not hit the board three previous starts on DMR turf, he ran well enough in all three that footing
                      should not be an issue. Sharp horse can win right back in this N3L starter. LEMON SUSHI is uncertain around two turns on turf, but he
                      has been running fast in sprints and hit the board his last seven starts including a dirt route. A front-runner/presser, 'SUSHI should be
                      forwardly placed on the stretch-out while running back in 14 days off a fast runner-up in a turf sprint. AMERICAREDWHITEBLU
                      stretches out off a solid runner-up comeback in a sprint. A stablemate of the top choice, 'REDWHITEBLU should be forwardly placed.
                      BIG HAT WILLIE and BIRTH OF COOL will rally late.

                      Fourth Race
                      1. Judge Miller 2. Devilish Desire 3. Matanzas Creek
                      JUDGE MILLER, a 3yo first-time starter who is a full sibling to recently retired multiple G1 winner Clairiere, makes his long-awaited
                      debut with solid works. Although six furlongs might be shorter than preferred for the Curlin colt, he looked good working in company Nov.
                      12 (viewed online), and drew the outside post where he can sit, wait and pounce. 'MILLER is trained by Glatt, who also entered
                      DEVILISH DESIRE. The latter finished third in his debut; the race might have been better than it looks. He took dirt while racing inside
                      and behind the pace, raced greenly in the lane, and finished evenly. Good debut, improvement likely second time out. MATANZAS
                      CREEK worked well into his debut, but tired in the stretch after dueling early with the eventual front-running winner. With a race under
                      his belt, 'CREEK should be fitter. And he does have speed. First-time starter YANGARRA debuts with fast works. He might be ranked too
                      low.

                      Fifth Race
                      1. Not A Sinner 2. Ashley 3. Alluring
                      NOT A SINNER should win this maiden turf sprint based on her promising U.S. debut. She broke slowly, quickly recovered and sped
                      forward to chase, got blocked at the quarter pole while the winner got first run, then finished willingly for second. That race was six
                      furlongs; she finished in the money at this five-furlong distance in her debut in Ireland. With a clean trip, 'SINNER should deliver.
                      ASHLEY ran better than the line looks in her last-place debut in July. The speedster broke from the rail on a track that favored the outside,
                      dueled inside while under pressure, and tired. She finished last of eight, but actually ran okay. Off nearly four months since, ASHLEY
                      could steal this. ALLURING is a Ghostzapper filly making her debut with an apparently decent work pattern. FEISTY MITOLE got
                      banged around at the break and lost her chance last time. She has more speed than she was able to show, and could keep ASHLEY honest
                      on the front end.

                      Sixth Race
                      1. Envisioned 2. Cocktail Cutie 3. Mumbles Brockman
                      Despite a disappointing debut, ENVISIONED gets the call dropping from Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred maiden-claiming. She worked fast
                      into her debut, produced speed, but cracked to finish eighth. That was two months ago, she meets easier second out, and might be the
                      quickest in the field. Regardless, she is likely to move forward second out on the drop. COCKTAIL CUTIE was overmatched vs. statebred MSW rivals; she finished second in both Cal-bred maiden-50 starts at DMR in summer. MUMBLES BROCKMAN adds blinkers
                      after splitting a five-horse field in her debut. HOT DANZING drops in class, adds blinkers, and has enough speed to possibly keep the top
                      choice honest.

                      Seventh Race
                      1. Derecho Dandy 2. Worse Read Sanchez 3. Thirty Four Coupe
                      This N2L claiming turf mile is tough; DERECHO DANDY returns to the level at which he was claimed from a third-place finish in
                      summer. 'DANDY was subsequently overmatched and split the field in a starter allowance, but is back now at his proper level and racing
                      over the DMR turf on which three summer starts produced a second and a third. WORSE READ SANCHEZ, a trouble-prone gelding
                      who has never raced this low, will be running late. He had no chance last time in a race won by Beef Winslow, the top choice in the third
                      race. THIRTY FOUR COUPE figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip, while BROTHER REID will be rolling late.

                      Eighth Race
                      1. Nysos 2. Stronghold 3. Tejon Pass
                      NYSOS should be heavily favored in this G3 sprint based on his debut. The juvenile won by more than 10 lengths with a 96 Beyer that is
                      among the fastest this year by a 2yo (Fierceness earned 105 in Breeders' Cup Juvenile; Prince of Monaco 103 winning Best Pal; NYSOS,
                      Locked and Booth each earned 96, third-highest). Drawn outside in this small field, NYSOS will be tough if he repeats his debut. Blinkers
                      are off. STRONGHOLD, the first runner produced by G2 Sorrento winner Spectator, won well his second start in Kentucky and worked
                      well since then in California. TEJON PASS, a Justify colt produced by multiple graded winner Foxysox, improved second out with a solid
                      maiden victory on wet-fast at SA. His fourth-place debut in summer at DMR was not bad. WINE ME UP drops from an eighth-place finish
                      in the BC Juvenile; MISSION BEACH returns to the DMR track on which he won his debut. He split the field last out in a G1 in New
                      York.

                      Ninth Race
                      1. Touchdown Kittle 2. Antibes 3. Dark Marcus
                      TOUCHDOWN KITTLE deserves another chance in this Cal-bred maiden turf mile, a race he might have won last time except for a bad
                      trip. The stretch-out maiden was expected to make the lead, but he broke in a tangle and got caught inside and behind rivals. It was an
                      uncomfortable position; he loomed a threat into the lane and then went flat. He actually ran well to finish third. With a route under his belt,
                      the Tiznow gelding can handle this field. ANTIBES ran well in his debut, then misfired second out. He stretches to two turns with a pair of
                      sprints under his belt, and route influence in his pedigree. DARK MARCUS is a 15-start maiden who will be rolling late. MAXVILLE is a
                      trouble-prone gelding who also rallies from behind.

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 16966

                        #26
                        Del mar Picks
                        CONSENSUS

                        1st post: 12:30 PM
                        Bob Mieszerski (14/$70.80) Art Wilson (14/$94.00) Terry Turrell (8/$52.00) Eddie Wilson (15/$74.60) Consensus* (16/$65.00)
                        1 Hurricane Cloud Sydney Street Tiz Plus Tiz Plus Hurricane Cloud Sydney Street Hurricane Cloud Tiz Plus Flavius Hurricane Cloud Tiz Plus Flavius Hurricane Cloud (17) Tiz Plus (10) Sydney Street (3)
                        2 SOL DEL SUR Tembo Signofthecross TEMBO Signofthecross Sol Del Sur Tembo Signofthecross Sol Del Sur Sol Del Sur Tembo Signofthecross Tembo (18) Sol Del Sur (14) Signofthecross (6)
                        3 Americaredwhiteblu Beef Winslow Big Hat Willie Lemon Sushi Americaredwhiteblu Big Hat Willie Americaredwhiteblu Big Hat Willie Lemon Sushi Beef Winslow Big Hat Willie Americaredwhiteblu Americaredwhiteblu (13) Beef Winslow (7) Big Hat Willie (6)
                        4 Matanzas Creek Yangarra Devilish Desire Devilish Desire Yangarra Matanza Creek Judge Miller Yangarra Matanzas Creek Matanzas Creek Yangarra Judge Miller Matanzas Creek (12) Yangarra (8) Devilish Desire (6)
                        5 Not A Sinner Ashley Alluring Scarlet Avenue Not A Sinner Impec Alluring In Your Life Not A Sinner Not A Sinner Impec Alluring Not A Sinner (13) Alluring (7) Scarlet Avenue (5)
                        6 Hot Danzing Envisioned Cocktail Cutie Cocktail Cutie Lookatheglide Hot Danzing COCKTAIL CUTIE Envisioned Hot Danzing Hot Danzing Mumbles Brockman Envisioned Cocktail Cutie (13) Hot Danzing (12) Envisioned (5)
                        7 The Key Is Unity Numero Dix Derecho Dandy The Key Is Unity Worse Read Sanchez Thirty Four Coupe Numero Dix Thirty Four Coupe Derecho Dandy Derecho Dandy Thirty Four Coupe Numero Dix The Key Is Unity (10) Numero Dix (8) Derecho Dandy (7)
                        8 Nysos Stronghold Mission Beach Nysos Wine Me Up Mission Beach Nysos Wine Me Up Stronghold Nysos Wine Me Up Stronghold NYSOS (20) Wine Me Up (6) Stronghold (4)
                        9 Touchdown Kittle Dark Marcus Ghostly Act Antibes Touchdown Kittle Ghostly Act Antibes Touchdown Kittle Dark Marcus TOUCHDOWN KITTLE Antibes Dark Marcus Touchdown Kittle (14) Antibes (12) Dark Marcus (4)
                        *Selections from Bob Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Terry Turrell and Eddie Wilson are combined in the consensus. A top choice receives five points (handicapper's capitalized best bet receives seven) a second choice two points and a third choice one. Numbers below handicapper's name reflect total wins and money won for the meet

                        Comment

                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 16966

                          #27
                          Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 19

                          Nov. 19, 2023









                          Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.
                          RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 2-1 3 Value Area J L Ortiz
                          PLACE 8-5 6 Shop Lifting J R Velazquez
                          SHOW 9-2 5 Woven Red M Franco
                          WILD CARD 10-1 4 Orozimba D Davis
                          ALTERNATE 1 4-1 1 Leslies Rose I Ortiz Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 2 Kingdom Come J Alvarado
                          * EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
                          RACE #2 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #2 FOXY CARA
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-5 2 Foxy Cara M Franco
                          PLACE 4-1 5 Eastern Star J A Gomez
                          SHOW 5-2 1 Scoring Chance I Ortiz Jr.
                          WILD CARD 6-1 7 Monetary Monarch R R Maragh
                          ALTERNATE 1 20-1 6 Hidden War Dance R Silvera
                          ALTERNATE 2 6-1 4 Run Chata J L Ortiz
                          * EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
                          RACE #3 $90,000 ALLOWANCE
                          1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:18 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #5 DADDY KNOWS
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-2 5 Daddy Knows K Davis
                          PLACE 7-2 2 Aggregation M Franco
                          SHOW 6-1 3 Fromanothamutha D Davis
                          WILD CARD 4-5 6 Bendoog J Alvarado
                          ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Just Call Ray T McCarthy
                          ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Bold Victory M Olver
                          * EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
                          RACE #4 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #4 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 7-2 4 Bettrluckythangood D Davis
                          PLACE 5-2 6 Slapintheface M Franco
                          SHOW 7-2 9 Domination J L Ortiz
                          WILD CARD 8-1 3 Hes a Lucky Guy J Castellano
                          ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Ky Thirty Won I Ortiz Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 2 20-1 1 Tony O L R Rivera Jr.
                          * EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX
                          RACE #5 $120,000 STAKES
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 8-1 6 Works for Me T McCarthy
                          PLACE 10-1 2 Typhoon Fury J Castellano
                          SHOW 4-1 4 Uncle Truly J L Ortiz
                          WILD CARD 6-1 7 Walley World M Franco
                          ALTERNATE 1 5-2 14 Pandagate D Davis
                          ALTERNATE 2 7-2 9 Spirit Prince J Rosario
                          * EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
                          RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:44 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 6-1 8 Mels Baby Sister D Davis
                          PLACE 6-1 1 Superstarsusan K Davis
                          SHOW 5-2 5 High Track J L Ortiz
                          WILD CARD 9-2 7 Brooklyn Dantz J Castellano
                          ALTERNATE 1 7-2 2 P Mutter Pickle I Ortiz Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Steal the Rhythm L R Rivera Jr.
                          * EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
                          RACE #7 $135,000 STAKES
                          1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-5 8 Regal Realm J L Ortiz
                          PLACE 7-2 6 Chili Flag I Ortiz Jr.
                          SHOW 5-1 7 Faith in Humanity M Franco
                          WILD CARD 8-1 1 Willakia J Ruiz
                          ALTERNATE 1 1-1 10 Hot Fudge J Lezcano
                          ALTERNATE 2 7-5 9 Movie Moxy J L Ortiz
                          * EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
                          RACE #8 $25,000 CLAIMING
                          6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 5-2 1 Willful Desire I Castillo
                          PLACE 5-1 8 U Should B Dancing R Silvera
                          SHOW 9-2 4 Cupids Girl J Lezcano
                          WILD CARD 10-1 9 Bunty Windermere M Olver
                          ALTERNATE 1 7-2 2 Bern Rosey Bern D Davis
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Wartapped K Davis
                          * EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
                          RACE #9 $75,000 ALLOWANCE
                          1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-2 10 Supers Lucky Lady J Castellano
                          PLACE 6-1 4 Linarite J L Ortiz
                          SHOW 4-1 13 Bernt Again M Franco
                          WILD CARD 20-1 1A Kara Para D Davis
                          ALTERNATE 1 20-1 1 Saratoga Kisses J Baez
                          ALTERNATE 2 8-1 2 Lady of Thoroton E Cancel
                          * EXACTA: 10-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX, 13-1 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 4/10/13 BOX, 1/4/13 BOX

                          Comment

                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 16966

                            #28
                            Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 19

                            Nov. 19, 2023









                            Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.
                            RACE #1 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                            1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 6-5 5 Medaglia Forever L Saez
                            PLACE 5-2 3 Enclosure T Gaffalione
                            SHOW 9-5 1 Vanished R Santana Jr.
                            WILD CARD 12-1 4 Raggity Sand D Cannon
                            ALTERNATE 1 12-1 2 Shirls Delight E Morales
                            * EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
                            RACE #2 $75,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:28 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #6 PRISONER
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 8-5 6 Prisoner T Gaffalione
                            PLACE 5-2 1 Implementation L Saez
                            SHOW 8-1 7 Solidify A Beschizza
                            WILD CARD 6-1 4 Nifty F Arrieta
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Vulcan A Achard
                            ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Tee Burns G Corrales
                            * EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
                            RACE #3 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:56 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #5 B WAYNE
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 8-5 5 B Wayne F Geroux
                            PLACE 6-1 3 Quebrancho R Santana Jr.
                            SHOW 15-1 7 Mor Jazz E Morales
                            WILD CARD 2-1 6 Action Hero T Gaffalione
                            ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Brilliant Man J McKee
                            ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Gotta Have Dreams C J Hernandez
                            * EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
                            RACE #4 $30,000 CLAIMING
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:24 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 9-2 1 The Princess Says F Arrieta
                            PLACE 7-2 2 Jennifer My Love F Geroux
                            SHOW 5-1 4 Code for Success R Bejarano
                            WILD CARD 3-1 3 Belperron L Saez
                            ALTERNATE 1 5-2 5 Summer of Mischief K J Asmussen
                            ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Royal Blood G Saez
                            * EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
                            RACE #5 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:52 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-1 1 Princess Is Olivia F Arrieta
                            PLACE 4-1 2 Shezthefactor D Cannon
                            SHOW 10-1 11 Splash Master T Gaffalione
                            WILD CARD 8-1 9 Mischief Jac J E Felix
                            ALTERNATE 1 12-1 6 Mahjong Girl L Saez
                            ALTERNATE 2 20-1 8 Sybarite R Bejarano
                            * EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/2/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX
                            RACE #6 $20,000 CLAIMING
                            1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 6-1 7 Faithful King J McKee
                            PLACE 3-1 4 Yono T Gaffalione
                            SHOW 8-1 5 Schmoozin A Beschizza
                            WILD CARD 6-1 6 Mohaafeth G Corrales
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Liam the Brave E Morales
                            ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Carmichael F Arrieta
                            * EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
                            RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-1 5 Miyagi T Gaffalione
                            PLACE 6-1 4 Shakin Loose K J Asmussen
                            SHOW 12-1 1 High Headed R Bejarano
                            WILD CARD 12-1 3 Danner J Rocco Jr.
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 10 Decatur Street J R Leparoux
                            ALTERNATE 2 9-2 9 Carbone R Santana Jr.
                            * EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
                            RACE #8 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
                            5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:20 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-1 10 Just a Care L Saez
                            PLACE 8-1 4 Proud Mary F Geroux
                            SHOW 7-2 11 Little Mombo M Garcia
                            WILD CARD 4-1 3 Kick a Rhyme T Gaffalione
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Numero Seis B J Hernandez Jr.
                            ALTERNATE 2 4-1 14 Souper Explosive T Gaffalione
                            * EXACTA: 10-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 4/10/11 BOX, 3/4/11 BOX
                            RACE #9 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:50 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #6 CASH ONLY
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-1 6 Cash Only T Gaffalione
                            PLACE 7-2 5 Tis Charming B J Hernandez Jr.
                            SHOW 10-1 3 Know Who You Are A Achard
                            WILD CARD 15-1 10 Midnight Maestro M Michel
                            ALTERNATE 1 10-1 8 Runnin Munnin R Gutierrez
                            ALTERNATE 2 6-1 9 Coastal Brink K J Asmussen
                            * EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

                            Comment

                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 16966

                              #29
                              Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 19

                              Nov. 19, 2023









                              Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
                              RACE #1 $35,000 CLAIMING
                              1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 3-1 4 Tiz Plus F Prat
                              PLACE 4-1 7 Flavius J J Hernandez
                              SHOW 5-2 3 Hurricane Cloud U Rispoli
                              WILD CARD 8-1 2 Departure K Frey
                              ALTERNATE 1 5-1 6 Overdue A Fresu
                              ALTERNATE 2 5-1 8 Sydney Street H I Berrios
                              * EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
                              RACE #2 $7,000 CLAIMING
                              1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #5 SIGNOFTHECROSS
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 2-1 5 Signofthecross K Frey
                              PLACE 5-2 2 Sol Del Sur E A Maldonado
                              SHOW 7-5 4 Tembo A Fresu
                              WILD CARD 8-1 1 Papale A Escobedo
                              ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Warrens Candy Man I E Mosqueira
                              * EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
                              RACE #3 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
                              1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 4-1 3 Lemon Sushi J J Hernandez
                              PLACE 2-1 1 Americaredwhiteblu F Prat
                              SHOW 8-1 7 Big Coupe R A Vazquez
                              WILD CARD 7-2 4 Big Hat Willie A Fresu
                              ALTERNATE 1 3-1 6 Beef Winslow D A Herrera
                              ALTERNATE 2 15-1 2 Rodrigoknows G Franco
                              * EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
                              RACE #4 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 5-2 1 Devilish Desire A Fresu
                              PLACE 2-1 5 Judge Miller F Prat
                              SHOW 5-2 2 Yangarra J J Hernandez
                              WILD CARD 5-1 3 Hey Brother U Rispoli
                              ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Matanzas Creek R A Vazquez
                              * EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
                              RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #3 NOT A SINNER
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 3-1 3 Not A Sinner U Rispoli
                              PLACE 8-1 6 Feisty Mitole J J Hernandez
                              SHOW 6-1 8 Impec H I Berrios
                              WILD CARD 6-1 2 In Your Life D A Herrera
                              ALTERNATE 1 5-1 5 Alluring F Prat
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 1 Ashley M E Smith
                              * EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
                              RACE #6 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                              6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:58 PM ET
                              BEST BET: #5 COCKTAIL CUTIE
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 7-2 5 Cocktail Cutie M Gutierrez
                              PLACE 7-2 4 Hot Danzing A Aguilar
                              SHOW 6-1 8 Mumbles Brockman R A Vazquez
                              WILD CARD 15-1 1 Signora Vittoria K Frey
                              ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Girlcanthelpit G Franco
                              ALTERNATE 2 12-1 7 Lookatherglide V Espinoza
                              * EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
                              RACE #7 $22,500 CLAIMING
                              1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:28 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 3-1 2 Derecho Dandy A Fresu
                              PLACE 7-2 10 Numero Dix H I Berrios
                              SHOW 6-1 9 The Key Is Unity D A Herrera
                              WILD CARD 10-1 6 Brother Reid T J Pereira
                              ALTERNATE 1 30-1 1 Papa Tiger E Payeras
                              ALTERNATE 2 4-1 3 Thirty Four Coupe U Rispoli
                              * EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
                              RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
                              7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:58 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 4-5 5 Nysos F Prat
                              PLACE 6-1 2 Mission Beach J J Hernandez
                              SHOW 5-1 3 Wine Me Up R A Vazquez
                              WILD CARD 3-1 4 Stronghold A Fresu
                              ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Tejon Pass M E Smith
                              * EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
                              RACE #9 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                              1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:28 PM ET
                              PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                              WIN 5-2 1 Touchdown Kittle U Rispoli
                              PLACE 3-1 9 Dark Marcus D A Herrera
                              SHOW 6-1 7 Ghostly Act K Frey
                              WILD CARD 4-1 8 Antibes G Franco
                              ALTERNATE 1 12-1 6 The Fuss T J Pereira
                              ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Maxville M Gutierrez
                              * EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
                              * TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

                              Comment

                              • ConleyPicks
                                Senior Member
                                • Aug 2020
                                • 16966

                                #30
                                Free play from Mike Wynn

                                Free Pick: Connecticut -12.5 over Indiana

                                Comment

                                Working...