Saturday 11/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 5	Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta/Daily Double (Races 5-6)/Pick 3 (Races 5-7) Pick 5 (Races 5-9)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 6:59P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SARAH'S VISION is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SARAH'S VISION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. QUARTER RAT: Horse is dropping int o a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ITELLYOUTHEFACTS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	SARAH'S VISION	5/2	7/2
5	QUARTER RAT	8/1	5/1
3	ITELLYOUTHEFACTS	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ITELLYOUTHEFACTS	3	5/1	Front-runner	68	64	74.2	61.6	52.1
10	MY LIL DUDE	10	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	71	63	68.2	41.9	33.9
7	PINK HIGGINS	7	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	56	54	66.4	45.5	28.0
6	SARAH'S VISION	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	69	76.9	66.3	59.8
8	NOCOMET	8	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	63	69.2	55.9	38.4
5	QUARTER RAT	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	66	60.4	61.8	53.8
12	XANTHUS WRATH	12	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	62	57.2	57.2	41.7
11	MR ELVIN	11	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	67	63	54.1	61.7	54.7
4	PLAY MASTER	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	56	53.4	51.6	36.6
2	FORGED IN STEEL	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	63	52.4	54.0	39.0
1	HEATHER'S REQUEST	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	61	49.2	49.2	29.7
9	IT'S A BIRD	9	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	69	43.6	46.5	33.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 7	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 90 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 3:26P
SAFELY KEPT S. - FOR FILLIES, THREE-YEARS-OLD. WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $500 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF AN OPEN SWEEPSTAKES ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF $50,000 ONCE, 4 LBS.; OF $40,000 ONCE, 6 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). TROPHY TO THE OWNER OF THEWINNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2023 WITH 20 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HOWL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HOWL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last se ven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. UNIFIED ALLIANCE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	HOWL	4/5	2/1
2	UNIFIED ALLIANCE	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	HOWL	5	4/5	Front-runner	84	99	92.9	93.9	91.4
2	UNIFIED ALLIANCE	2	6/1	Front-runner	87	86	91.0	77.4	70.9
7	APPLE PICKER	7	5/2	Stalker	93	87	77.8	72.8	68.3
3	LIQUIDATOR	3	30/1	Stalker	83	82	74.8	71.8	62.8
6	DOT MARIE	6	30/1	Trailer	76	73	44.2	57.2	44.2
4	WARRIOR'S RANSOM	4	7/2	Trailer	89	95	37.6	70.2	62.2
1	WORST BEHAVIOUR	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	69	63.6	63.4	51.9

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Stakes - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 95

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, YELLOW ROSE OF TEXAS S. - FOR ACCREDITED TEXAS BRED FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 TO START. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION OF $2,000 IS DUE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY AND INCLUDES ALL FEES. THE $50,000 ADDED AND ALL FEES TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 17% TO SECOND, $10% TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ONE FAMOUS LIL LADY 7/2
# 3 PAINTED SEIS 5/2
# 6 VYTALITI 2/1

ONE FAMOUS LIL LADY is the best wager in this race. She ought to be given consideration given the quite good speed figs. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group of horses. Ran a solid last race. PAINTED SEIS - Is hard not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very good - 81 avg - of late. Keeton has a solid 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. VYTALITI - Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this filly. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in her last competition.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 12:38pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#4 HONOR GOLD (ML=5/2)
#2 DOC BALLARD (ML=20/1)


HONOR GOLD - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer pair. DOC BALLARD - Last raced at Gulfstream Park carrying 5 lbs more. The lower impost in this race should serve him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 VANISHING INTEREST (ML=9/5), #3 GRAND DANIEL (ML=7/2),

VANISHING INTEREST - This horse doesn't have a champion's spirit. Often finishes near the winner. Pedestrian speed rating last time around the track at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this racer will improve too much in today's event. GRAND DANIEL - I predict a letdown for this horse in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HONOR GOLD - This colt's superior last speed number of 69, against these horses, makes him the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 HONOR GOLD on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:11pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 TIZTHEHARTOFDIXIE (ML=6/1)
#5 SOO BROOKLYN (ML=5/1)


TIZTHEHARTOFDIXIE - Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Golden Gate Fields. The move down the class ladder should suit her well. SOO BROOKLYN - I just may give this one a good shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the end. Recent speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement. I think that the addition of the 'hood' today will keep her mind on the race at hand.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ADAPTED MEMORY (ML=2/1), #6 NO WAY IT'S TODAY (GB) (ML=3/1), #1 CRESCENDO MOLTO (ML=4/1),

ADAPTED MEMORY - Doesn't appear to have enough good qualities to justify the reward. NO WAY IT'S TODAY (GB) - 3/1 is just not enough of a price to take on this one. CRESCENDO MOLTO - 4/1 is not enough of a price to take on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 TIZTHEHARTOFDIXIE to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Skip

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 47

FOR NATIVE TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 116 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 EL DON CARLOS 7/2
# 4 TAPIT ROYALTY 3/1
# 2 YAHIR 2/1

EL DON CARLOS is my choice. Will almost certainly come out very strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved quickly to the lead recently. YAHIR - Looks quite good to be close to the front end at the first call.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14200 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 A REVENANT LADY 9/5
# 3 KT TWOS ARE WILD 2/1
# 6 BELLA NOTTE 6/1

A REVENANT LADY looks respectable to best this field. The class figure of today's contest is much lower than her last race. Has run admirably when running a short race. Is a key contender - given the 71 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. KT TWOS ARE WILD - Looks solid to be up near the lead at the first call. Must be given a shot based on the respectable Equibase speed fig earned in the last competition. BELLA NOTTE - Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses displaying very good figures as of late and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 73 under similar conditions. She has been running solidly and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this field.

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Super High 5
Optional Claiming $16,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $53,000 • Post: 3:58P
(INCLUDES UP TO $5,500 FTBOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DELIGHTFUL BREEZE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOTH SIDES: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. STYLE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MILES OF SMILES: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. RITABOOK: Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	DELIGHTFUL BREEZE	8/1	6/1
3	BOTH SIDES	2/1	6/1
7	STYLE	5/1	6/1
4	MILES OF SMILES	8/1	9/1
10	RITABOOK	15/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	RITABOOK	10	15/1	Front-runner	76	67	90.2	68.6	55.6
6	DELIGHTFUL BREEZE	6	8/1	Front-runner	82	74	88.2	73.4	65.9
9	BACHELORETTE	9	15/1	Front-runner	72	67	57.8	63.3	47.3
3	BOTH SIDES	3	2/1	Stalker	85	82	67.9	73.0	67.5
1	KIKILOVE	1	7/2	Stalker	80	70	59.8	64.8	54.8
5	ONE TOUGH DAME	5	10/1	Trailer	78	70	68.0	71.6	59.1
4	MILES OF SMILES	4	8/1	Trailer	87	76	46.6	72.8	65.3
7	STYLE	7	5/1	Trailer	84	78	30.8	77.8	72.8
8	HUMOR SENSE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	67	71.2	45.8	27.3
2	SHE'S A JOY	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	68	53.3	54.3	43.8

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:29pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#4 FOOL YOURSELF (ML=7/2)
#6 VIKING QUEEN (ML=8/1)


FOOL YOURSELF - This is the only real pace presser in the race. Trainer Eubanks moves this horse down in class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a good race given the class advantage. This equine collects a lot of money per race around the track. At the top in this affair. VIKING QUEEN - Mare's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a nice effort is a good sign. Last race at Laurel on Nov 5th was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes right here in this race. She should do well in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TWEET AWAY ROBIN (ML=2/1), #9 NINJA ABARRIO (ML=6/1), #3 LUCKY LORRAINE (ML=8/1),

TWEET AWAY ROBIN - This mare most likely won't be really close at the finish. NINJA ABARRIO - Don't think this mount will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure. LUCKY LORRAINE - This animal didn't show any front speed in the last race. Now she is trying a sprint. Tough chance at the shorter distance. Tough to take this questionable contender at this price after the finish (fifth) in the last race. This mare is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Hard to bet on her on the top end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 FOOL YOURSELF to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

Lone Star Park - Race 9	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12)
Allowance • 440 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 9:49P
QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, TRIAL OR TEXAS BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DOIN IT JUST FOR FUN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Po wer Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CR BARAK: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	DOIN IT JUST FOR FUN	2/1	2/1
3	CR BARAK	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MAYSA	1	10/1	Average	82	77	5.5	0.0	0.0
2	THE ROAN ASSASSIN	2	12/1	Slow	76	70	6.7	0.0	0.0
3	CR BARAK	3	3/1	Average	85	79	5.6	0.0	0.0
4	DOIN IT JUST FOR FUN	4	2/1	Fast	88	98	3.1	0.0	0.0
5	JBDUSTY CREEK DANCER	5	20/1	Slow	73	62	6.3	0.0	0.0
6	TEMPTINGEYE	6	30/1	Average	74	70	4.5	0.0	0.0
7	DAZZLIN DRAMA	7	5/2	Average	82	76	5.9	0.0	0.0
8	BLESS EM DIRTY	8	8/1	Fast	65	68	3.0	0.0	0.0
9	ZEF LUCKY SEIS	9	30/1	Slow	75	63	6.7	0.0	0.0
10	SHAKIN JET BLACK	10	30/1	Slow	81	72	7.1	0.0	0.0
11	FIRST PANTHER	11	30/1	Average	89	67	4.6	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $61800 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR ONTARIO SIRED ALLOWANCE WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 PRINCESSOFTHENORTH 2/1
# 4 SOCIETY'S KAT 7/2
# 2 LIVIN ON LUV 5/2

I like PRINCESSOFTHENORTH here. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this lot. She has garnered decent figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this group of horses in this race. I like the jockey on this filly - very good chance to win the contest. SOCIETY'S KAT - Must be given a chance based on the strong Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest. LIVIN ON LUV - Should be considered here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Has been racing admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Post: 3:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$9000 - AMERICAN HARNESS DRIVERS- AMATEURS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 SHOEMAKER HANOVER 5/2
# 3 SOUTHWIND FROST 6/1
# 7 GRAFENBERG 3/1

SHOEMAKER HANOVER has a great shot to take this competition. A very good class horse shouldn't be be passed over. With an average class figure of 83 all signs point here for the winner. This standardbred and Calabrese have some sort of connection going. In the money clip for this duet is high. SOUTHWIND FROST - Hands down the best post at Freehold Raceway is the 3. The win percentage is excellent. GRAFENBERG - This interesting entrant recorded a very nice speed rating last time out. Looks to be going well to come right back. Amazing win rate combined with recent formidable performances. We think he can handle this group.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Post: 10:02 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$7000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W OF 2 RACES OR $15,000. LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 JILLIAN JIGGS 8/5
# 1 KELLINA DIAMOND 9/2
# 6 RED DIRT FLASH 6/1

Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on JILLIAN JIGGS. The number crunching team can't help but support this fine animal because the internal pace figures fit well here at Flamboro Downs. Great in the money stat for Cullen and this standardbred. A really good probability to get the trip to the winner's circle. KELLINA DIAMOND - More wins than is normal have been achieved by fine animals lining up behind the 1 position at Flamboro Downs. RED DIRT FLASH - Racing quite well, achieved a sharp TrackMaster Speed Rating in her most recent competition (72).

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
1	1	KEYSTONE TENACIOUS	2/1	Piwniuk, Blake F - 48	489.10
4	4	ARMYCAPTIN HANOVER	10/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 7	480.20
3	3	WINE THIRTY	10/1	Hennessy, Michael R - 18	468.87
2	2	ICY BLUE SCOOTER	4/1	Sobey, Nathan K - 15	445.85
7	7	NO COLLUSION	6/1	Kelly, David A - 19	444.61
6	6	MATTS A MYSTICIAN	8/1	Gillis, Logan - 7	429.82
5	5	WHIPLASH SMILE	5/2	Miller, Thomas Michael - 13	428.78