Sunday 11/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from John Anthony Sports

John Anthony's Free Selection for Sunday: Take the YALE (NCAAB)

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Bodo Glimt +235 (Soccer)

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Williams

1* on Patriots-4

[ConleyPicks]

Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Steelers/Bengals NFL Free Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-4 straight up and against the spread despite being outgained in every single game. They rank 28th in total offense and 27th in total defense, and it's almost nothing short of a miracle that they're in contention for postseason football considering all the metrics.

They've caught a lucky break here (again) as they won't have to face Bengals franchise quarterback Joe Burrow who will miss the rest of the season due to a right wrist injury, but I think Cincy will rally around backup QB Jake Browning.

And ... It's not like Pittsburgh is well off on the QB position either. Kenny Pickett has a QB rating of 36.1, which is the fourth-worst mark among qualified quarterbacks (minimum of 20 action plays per team game).

2* FREE PICK ON THE CINCINNATI BENGALS+2.5

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Jaguars-1 -102

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Houston Texans +2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Houston Texans as home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a must-win game for the Texans if they want to win the division so there will be no letdown here despite winning 3 consecutive games. They trail the Jaguars by one game for the division lead, and those last 3 wins were impressive because they dominated the box score in all 3. They had 496 yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 164 yards. They had 544 yards on the Bengals and outgained them by 164 yards. They had 419 yards on the Cardinals and outgained them by 100 yards. CJ Stroud is a heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year averaging 296.2 PYPG with 17 TD and only 5 INT on the season. The Jaguars have a great run D but their weakness is against the pass, making this a great matchup for the Texans. Take Houston.

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Bucs/Colts OVER 44.5

The Indianapolis Colts are an OVER team. They score 24.2 points per game and allow 24.8 points per game on the season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a couple starters against the 49ers last week in CB Jamel Dean and LB Lavonte David which are two of their better players on defense. They gave up 27 points and 420 yards to the 49ers two weeks after giving up 39 points and 496 yards to the Texans. I think Baker Mayfield is going to try to have to keep up with the Colts in more of a shootout in this one. They did put up 37 points on the Texans in that defeat. Weather will be perfect inside the dome in Indianapolis. Give me the OVER.

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Virginia Tech+140

No analysis provided.

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

7* NFL Steelers/Bengals Free Pick

PLAY ON: Steelers/Bengals UNDER 36.5

I'm on the UNDER 36.5 in Sunday's AFC North matchup that has the Joe Burrow less Bengals visiting the Steelers. I don't see there being anywhere close to enough offensive fire-power for these two teams to eclipse this low total. Cincinnati's offense is nothing without Burrow and is facing a stingy Steelers defense. Bengals have struggled defensively at times in 2023, but shouldn't have much trouble limiting Kenny Pickett and this Steelers attack. I don't think a change in OC is going to do a lot as long as Pickett is still QB1. Conditions for this game should also heavily favor the under with cross winds over 10+ mph and 100% chance of precipitation. Give me the UNDER 36.5!

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS+2.5 +100 for our Sunday Free Play. The Colts have won two straight games and coming off their bye week to move to 5-5 and remain in the playoff picture. The defense stepped up in those two games as they allowed only 19 points total but faced two of the worst quarterbacks in the league in Bryce Young and Mac Jones, No. 31 and No. 25 respectively in QBR. Their own offense did nothing as they managed an average of just 231 ypg and they take a step in defense this week. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has made five starts since taking over and has not been very good with a 6:6 TD:INT ratio with only one passer rating above .500 so they will try and run the ball here without much success. The Colts are the No. 6 ranked team in the Luck Ratings. Tampa Bay has lost five of its last six games but four of those teams have winning records with current playoff positions and at 4-6, it is very much alive in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have played a schedule ranked No. 10 and while going 0-4 against the top tens power ranked teams, they are 0-4 against all other teams. The offense has been up and down and quarterback Baker Mayfield has not been bad as he has his best passer rating since 2020-21 and this is with no semblance of a running game. Defensively, they have allowed 20 points or less six times and the strength is stopping the run as Tampa Bay is No. 2 in defensive rushing EPA. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (253) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#257/258 ASA PLAY ON Under 36.5 Points -109 – Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The defenses are easily the 2 best units on the field in this game. Carolina’s defense ranks 9th in total defense and 6th in YPP allowed. The Titans rank 22nd in total defense but that trumps these putrid offenses which rank 27th and 31st in total offense. Carolina’s offense has been bad all season averaging 4.4 YPP (dead last in the NFL) and they’ve been held to 15 points or less in 4 straight games. The Titans offense, since switching their starting QB to rookie Will Levis, they’ve averaged only 16 PPG. The Titans scored 28 points in Levis first start and now that teams have film on the rookie they’ve scored a total of 36 points his last 3 games. In their last 3 games since his first start the Titans have only averaged 261 total YPG. Carolina over their last 3 has a tally of just 225 total YPG. Tennessee has averaged just 4.8 YPP during that 3 game stretch and the Panthers are putting up only 3.6 YPP their last 3 games. Tennessee is the 2nd slowest paced team in the NFL (seconds per play) and they average only 56 offensive snaps per game, lowest in the NFL. Carolina is middle of the pack in pace so we don’t expect a fast paced offensive game. These 2 teams have combined to play 20 games this season and only 6 have gone Over the total. We project neither team to reach 20 points here which gives us a high probability this game stays Under the total.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Butler vs Boise State under 147

[ConleyPicks]

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Cardinals+3 -115

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on DEN-114

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Denver are 4-1 in their last 5 games.

- Cleveland are 2-11 in their last 13 games against Denver.

- Cleveland are 1-7 in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Rams ML -120

My 25* play on the Rams +2 cashed last week. I grabbed them as an underdog early in the week when the Matthew Stafford news broke that he would return. That made all the difference because they closed as 2.5-point favorites and won by 1. There were actually four games in the NFL last week where the books got middled, which is the most I can ever remember seeing in one week.

You could have had the Steelers +4 early in the week and the Browns PK later in the week and they went off as 2.5-point favorites and won by 3. You could have had the Cardinals +6 or the Texans -4 last week and the Texans won by 5. You could have had the 49ers -10 or the Buccaneers +13.5 at close and the 49ers won by 13. Numbers matter folks, especially in the NFL.

I think the Rams are a 'buy low' type of team in the 2nd half of the season after their 3-6 start. They are about as healthy as they have been all season, but unfortunately Cooper Kupp went down last week. They came back on the Seahawks without him and have actually been very good without him this season, but it's still a blow not having him.

The Cardinals have a ton of injuries on defense and are a terrible defensive team as it is. They just lost their green dot in LB Kyzir White in last week's loss to the Texans where they gave up 419 yards and should have lost by more, but CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside Arizona's 25-yard line. They allow 25.8 points per game on the season, including 27.0 points per game at home where they have almost zero home-field advantage.

The Rams have by far the superior stop unit. They got a couple key players back on defense coming out of their bye week and held the Seahawks to 16 points and 291 total yards. They held Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals to 9 points in a 26-9 victory earlier this season. I think they can hold Kyler Murray and this current Arizona offense in check as well.

The Rams just own the Cardinals, going 12-2 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. These games haven't even been close as all 12 wins have come by 7 points or more. The Rams have a lot more to play for at this point as they are trying to get back in playoff contention. They are also the healthier, fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that haven't even had a bye yet and are starting to run out of gas.

The Rams get their stud RB Kyren Williams back from injury and he has been one of the more underrated backs in the league. He averages 4.7 yards per carry and is also a threat to catch balls out of the backfield to give Stafford another weapon. Williams rushed for 158 yards on 20 carries in that first meeting with the Cardinals on October 15th, and he is in line for another big game in his return. Bet the Rams on the Money Line Sunday.