Tweet
Re: 3-12-09
Kelso 50 unit
Kelso 50 unit Wash St +8.5 v. UCLA
Kelso 50 unit
Kelso 50 unit Wash St +8.5 v. UCLA
-
Re: 3-12-09
INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. #717. Take Indiana +9 over Penn State (Thursday @ 5pm est). I know, hold your nose. But, we took two ugly dogs yesterday in Depaul +9.5 and Southern Methodist +11 and they both cashed for us, so let's take a dog that we are getting almost that many points in Indiana. Yes, Indiana is horrible, pathetic, blah, blah, blah. But, do you think the regular season every matters worth of diddly in this conference tournament? Heck, Depaul went 0-16 in conference tourney games - 0-16! And, yet this team defeated Georgetown and was giving all Providence can handle from start to finish. Indiana actually defeated Iowa at home and covered countless games at home. This game is played in Indianapolis for starters, Indiana lost to Penn State by just 3 points on the road and 10 points at home. Believe it or not, Indiana matches up well with Penn State even if is their scrubs and essentially non-scholarship players. If you are Penn State, how do you get your boys up for this first round game against the Hoosiers? Indiana comes into this game getting trounced by 24 to Wisconsin on the road, they face a team that they lost to at home by 10, then went on the road to just lose by 3, they are catching 9 points in a total of 123, and this is the same Penn State team that lost in double-overtime to Iowa and 6 conference games on the road. Penn State is used to playing the role of the spoiler, but now, they are favored and this is a new role for them that they will get used to. Let's take the points as Indiana should be game from start to finish and they will get some home cooking calls in our favor as well.
4 Unit Play. #723. Take NC State +1.5 over Maryland (Thursday @ 7pm est). This is a gutsy call. I can dig it. But, I like it here as the ACC Tourney is held in Atlanta and places this game on a neutral footing. I am also no fan of Maryland as I think they are over-rated frankly. I don't believe the ACC is overrated - I just think Maryland is overrated. The terps are similar to when the Cavs sit around and watch Lebron go to work at times when they sit around and Vasquez does all the work. NC State is a team that plays the great concept of "team basketball". Remember, this team beat NC State by 11 on the road earlier this year so this is a revenge game for NC State. I can easily see Maryland looking over the shoulder of NC State to their next opponent and they just might get their head caught in some headlights. Folks, I think Maryland is going to be in some serious trouble today along with Boston College for that matter. Remember 70% of the public loves Maryland here and why? This is not a home game for them. NC State has had luck on this floor defeating Georgia Tech 21, this team beat Wake at home, beat Virginia and Boston College at home as well. Heck, they even beat Miami of Florida at home as well. No, this team is not at home, but I am stating this to say, that this team has potential and when they play together, they can certainly accomplish a lot. I believe the line is revealing here and that Maryland is in for a big awakening and exit in the first round when all is said and done. The thing with Maryland is that when they stink, they stink bad such as their 41 point loss to Duke and 29 point loss to Clemson. NC State comes in with a more spirited attitude and takes the cake here today in Hotlanta.
4 Unit Play. #725. Take Virginia +4.5 over Boston College (Thursday @ 9:20pm est). Another upset in the making today. Let me ask you something - what has Boston College done on the road this year? BC lost to NC State by 5, lost to Miami of Florida by 11 and although this team is a 21 win team, they are in for trouble here today. The last time these two teams played, I don't believe Virginia was playing its best basketball when they lost to BC at home by 10. This Cavalier team remembers that loss when these two lock horns again today. Virginia shoots 74.5% from the free throw line and if they can attack the basket, they will win this game as they have some solid spot up 3-point shooters. I understand that this team was 4-12 this year in conference play - but I also understand that this team went 3-4 to close out the year, and they can certainly call on the barons of an upset here as if Virginia gets going early, BC can get rattled easily. I just don't feel BC is playing their best basketball heading into the tournament as this team barely defeated Tech at home by 1 point and I think they are going to be deer caught in headlights as well as I don't see BC getting "up" for this game as well. Don't be surprised to see both Virginia and NC State make the upset today against their respective opponents. I have a feelingg the public simply gets burned today with BC as they did with Texas A&M yesterday. The Cavaliers are 5-0-2 ATS as underdogs in their last 7 neutral site games and BC is just 1-7 ATS against teams with a SU (straight up) losing record as this team just simply does not "get-up" for weaker teams.
4 Unit Play. Take the Phoenix Suns +4.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday @ 10:30pm est). We are 2-1 on the week as roll into Sunday. Let's cash the Thursday ticket with the Phoenix Suns at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The public for the most part should love the Cavs here, and we will gladly go the other way. Remember, we took the Clippers just on Tuesday against the Cavs and the fact they won that game by coming back makes me like this pick even more. After all, you never want to go against a Cavs team that comes off a loss - but it is ok to go against a Cavs team that comes off a win in which they were fortunate. This reduces the "edge" that this team has from coming off a loss. Speaking of edge, the Phoenix Suns will have some tonight against the Cavs. From the fact that this team has lost five straight, returned home from a four game road swing in which they lost all four SU, including a home loss against Dallas, this team will be more than fired up to go against Lebron and company. There are certain situations when the Phoenix Suns will make sense and there are certain situations when they step up. This is one such situation. This game is on TNT, which is renowned for Underdogs covering and the Suns will use this game as a stepping stone to attempt to make a run out West. The Suns are the same team that beat the Lakers at home with no Amare winning 118-111 and there are just times when they step up. This will be one of those games as with the likes of Nash, O'Neal, Richardson, Hill, Barnes and Barbosa, the Suns can get this done. Remember, this was the exact same line when the Suns hosted the Lakers and won Outright as a small home dog as well and they desperately need a win once again and will step up on TNT to do so as a likely Outright Winner.Comment
-
Re: 3-12-09
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000? Maryland
2. 50,000? California
3. 50,000? Virginia
1. Maryland- This isn't just a must-win for the Terrapins, this is a must-win for revered coach Gary Williams, who's facing an incresingly vocal chorus of critics that are calling for the long-time architect of Maryland basketball to call it a day. I don't care on what side of the fence you lie on, but fact remains, everyone from the coaching staff on down to the water boy knows Maryland MUST WIN this game.
Besdies the obvious motivational factor mentioned above, the Terps got lucky to get such a favorable match up in this contest, because truth be told, the Wolf Pack is just as road weary (if not worse), than Maryland. Both teams struggled on the road this season, but unlike NC State, who lost its only neutral court game this season to Davidson, Maryland is 2-2 in those contests this year, including a big-time upset win over Michigan State! Any 'Capper worth his salt will tell you that you have to examine road play when considering these neutral court games, and in this case, the edge goes to Maryland.
Remember guys, these two teams played just under two weeks ago, with the Terps taking it to the Wolf Pack 71-60, in Raleigh no less! In that contest, Terps star G Greivis Vasquez dominated the Wolf Pack defense, scoring 33 points, dishing out 5 assists, and committing only 1 turnover! Terrapin-backers will tell you, when Vasquez plays well, Maryland usually wins, and I see more of the same in this one! In fact, most of the Maryland backcourt played well, as Hayes chipped in 9 points and 4 assists, and Tucker 7 points! In other words, Maryland will win win the battle of the guards, while Maryland forwards Milbourne and Neal equalize the Wolf Pack's slight edge down-low.
Finally, while NC State had a solid run going in late January thru mid-February, winning against Miami-Florida and Wake Forest to name a few, this team has tailed off since then. Barely beating Virginia, losing at Wake, losing to Maryland at home, a surprise win against un-motivated Boston College team, followed by a loss at Miami... Not exactly consistent basketball, and I expect to see more of that tonight. Maryland is the better, more motivated team in this contest, and while the game will be relatively close, the Terrapins get the solid win & cover, quieting their critics for at least one more day!
Take Maryland over NC State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. California- Is Southern Cal's modest 2-game win streak supposed to make me forget about their absolutely horrendous month of February? Trojans lost 6 of 7 games last month (2-5 ATS), including some pretty questionable home losses (see Washington State), and some pretty ugly road effort (see at Stanford). So what if they beat sorry-ass Oregon and Oregon State in back-to-back home games?! You know recent play is a HUGE factor when 'capping conference tourney games, and clearly Southern Cal has NOT been playing well.
True, the Bears have lost 3 of their last 5 games, but I don't consider losses to the cream of the PAC-10 crop (UCLA and at Arizona State) too disheartening. True, their road loss at Oregon State was disappointing, but who did they beat in the very next game? That's right, Southern Cal, in their wild 81-78 home win in OT back on February 26th! Much like that game, I expect this game will be highly competitive, but Cal simply has too much firepower in the end.
Speaking of firepower, its no secret guard play is the key to tourney play, you've heard it repeated again and again in the media, and for once, they're dead-on. The backcourt duo of Randle and Christopher (29 points in last meeting) is the key to this contest, because clearly they are the better guard duo. If not for USC's Daniel Hackett getting hot in their last meeting, that game would've never been close, and I suspect the Trojans backcourt will get out-played even worse tonight.
True, the Bears have no answer for Taj Gibson, but with Robertson playing really well of late (avergaing 19 ppg L3 games), and Boykin and Wilkes anchoring the paint, Cal has more than enough frontcourt play to at least equalize USC's edge down-low. However, on the flip side, you can rest-assured the Trojans have no way of equalizing Randle and Christopher.
Finally, one strong trend has emerged over the course of the last 8 meetings between these two schools... The favorite is a solid 6-2 ATS over that span! Once again, we expect a very competitive contest here, but the edge in backcourt is the difference here, as when it comes down to it, the Bears have the playmakers necessary to win a tight contest.
Take California over Southern Cal in this college hoops match up.
3. Virginia- I don't expect many people to agree with this play, but I could care less. Sometimes when a line on a contest is THIS fishy, you have to go with your first instict, which is to avoid the incredible trap set by Vegas in this match up. But let's dig a little deeper...
So you tell me why a team that won 10 games this season, including just ONE on the road, is only a relatively slight underdog against a 21-win rock-solid Boston College team? You may not like the answer, but oddsmakers know what they're doing, and to think they are going to give us a "hand out" in this contest is totally ridiculous. With a huge majority of the betting public on the Eagles in this spot, I simly cannot allow my clients to fall prey to this trap.
So, how do the Cavaliers do it? Well, it comes down to a couple key match ups, because we know BC's Tyrese Rice and Virginia's Sylven Landesberg will play well, but after that it comes down to players like G Mamadi Diane, who's been great when given minutes. Note, he had a real breakout in his last contest versus Maryland, playing 34 minutes, scoring 23 points, and finally taking some of the heat off of Landesberg! He's a senior, and with his time running VERY short, look for Diane to relish in his extended role tonight.
Herein lies the problem for Boston College, because in their last meeting - an 80-70 Eagles road win and cover - the only player they had to worry about was Landesberg, who dropped 32 points on BC in that contest. Fuck, Diane played only 4 minutes, and the rest of Virginia's guards played awful (Jones & Baker combined to go 4 of 22 overall)! Look for a much more focused effort tonight from a Cavaliers team that's playing for all the marbles tonight.
Finally, I know full well the Cavaliers were terrible on the road this season, going 1-9 SU, BUT they were not a particularly bad bet, going 6-4 ATS away over that span! Add in the fact that Boston College's defense on the road is just as bad as the Cavaliers (both teams allow about 75 ppg away), and don't tell me the Eagles are a "lock" here, because they're not. In the end, we're making this a small play, but rest-assured, following the herd on Boston College is a mistake here, as Virginia will grab the cash tonight.
Take Virginia plus the points over Boston College in this college hoops match upComment
-
Re: 3-12-09
John Ryan
Money Line: 118 St. Louis Blues
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on St. Louis as they host San Jose slated to start at 8:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 238-245 making a whopping 98.9 units since 2003. Play against any team against the money line revenging a same season loss versus opponent with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. It is very rare to find any NHL system that has made close to 100 units over 13 seasons let alone this one that has done it in just 5+ seasons. AiS shows a 90% probability that San Jose will score 2 or less goals in this game. Note that STL is a solid 22-6 making 20.7 units this season. 73-21 making 73.7 units over the past 3 seasons, and 371-78 making 330.5 units since 1996. Take St. LouisComment
-
Re: 3-12-09
Vegas Runner (2-0 so far Kentucky & Marquette...)
2* Virginia +5 Personal Play
3* Ohio +1 (Conference Game of The Week)
2* Vanderbilt -3 Personal Play
3* West Virginia +4.5 BEST BET OF THE DAY!!!
2* USC -1.5 Personal Play
2* Personal TNT Over 194 San Antonio vs. LA LakersComment
-
Re: 3-12-09
Thu, 03/12/09 - 7:00 PMStan Sharp | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
723 North Carolina St. 2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 724 Maryland
Analysis: Stan is Betting NC ST today. Stan loves NC ST here as the public will be in Love with Maryland who is a so called bubble team needing a win today and probably tomorrow to have any chance at an at large bid. Expect NC ST. to get revenge for a loss on March 1st at home to Maryland. Stan feels Vegas has the wrong team favored and is taking the points as NC St wins this by 5-7 points. TAKE NC ST as STAN SHARP'S WISE GUY CONF. TOURNEY BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.Comment
-
Re: 3-12-09
AJ Apollo paid and confirmed
12:30p AJ Apollo
Baylor r743
+7.5 (-110) / 4 units 4* Baylor +7.5 vs Kansas
2:20p AJ Apollo
Marquette r707
+2.5 (-110) / 4 units 4* Marquette +2.5 vs Villanova
7:00p AJ Apollo
West Virginia r709
+4.0 (-110) / 6 units 6* West Virginia +4 vs Pittsburgh
9:20p AJ Apollo
Syracuse r711
+4.5 (-110) / 4 units 4* Syracuse +4.5 vs ConnecticutComment
Comment