If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Sunday 12/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Denver Broncos are heading to Houston riding a five-game winning streak, including impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo.
I doubt they can keep playing at this level for much longer though, and here they'll face a Houston team that was on a roll before a 24-21 home loss to Jacksonville last week. Now they get a chance to bounce back at home right away.
The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
The Houston Texans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games with each of their last three ATS losses coming by a combined 3 points. They have had some pretty poor luck on the covering front, otherwise they would be closer to 4-1 ATS in their last five games. I think they are undervalued this week as only 3-point home favorites over the Broncos as a result.
They missed two FG's last week including the potential game-tying FG off the crossbar in their 24-21 home loss to the Jaguars as 1-point dogs. They had three turnovers inside the Arizona 25-yard line in their 21-16 win as 5.5-point favorites the week prior. They took a knee instead of kicking the XP to seal the game in a 39-37 win over the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites.
CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now. The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game. Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt. He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday. They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive. They should have all four this week.
While it's a good time to 'buy low' on the Texans after failing to cover four of their last five, it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Denver Broncos after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those wins coming at home. Turnover luck and home-field advantage is the sole reason for Denver's recent run. They are +13 in turnovers during this five-game winning streak, which is unsustainable.
Three of Denver's five wins have come by a combined 5 points during their winning streak. They have had 44 points off turnovers during this streak. They have forced 14 fumbles this season and recovered 12, which is also unsustainable. I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for, and the offense has still been held to just 23.0 points per game during this winning streak despite all those points off turnovers. Russell Wilson cannot keep up with CJ Stroud and company in this one.
Houston has the much better season-long stats. The Texans average 6.0 yards per play and allow 5.6 yards per play while outgaining opponents by 27 yards per game and 0.4 per play. Denver averages 5.5 yards per play and allows 6.3 yards per play while getting outgained by 87 yards per game and 0.8 per play. Bet the Texans Sunday.
Comment