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Re: 3-13-09
Tom Stryker
5* Purdue
3* Tenn
3* BYU
Tom Stryker
5* Purdue
3* Tenn
3* BYU
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Re: 3-13-09
The real animal
Pick title: 2* Georgia Tech +5 1/2
Pick Date: 03/13/2009
Pick description:
Dating back to March of 2004 Florida State's last three wins over Georgia Tech have come by margins of four, two, and one point. The underdog is an amazing 13-3 ATS in this series. Yesterday's upset of Clemson was not a surprise to me as the Jackets won't go down without a serious fight playing in front of an Atlanta audience. Since January 25th, the Seminoles are just 2-3 on the ACC road with thier wins coming by two and four points. The matchup here isn't nearly as good for Tech as FSU plays much stiffer defense than Clemson. But with three consecutive covers, this is perhaps the bet we have seen Georgia Tech play all season. Florida State's 17-7 ATS record on the season keeps this off the premium side.Comment
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Re: 3-13-09
Craig Davis Friday's Lineup
50 Dime ---- OKLAHOMA STATE
10 Dime ---- MEMPHIS
5 Dime ---- TEXAS
OKLAHOMA STATE --- Well, here it is boys. My largest college basketball release of the season. When I say I’ve been looking forward to this line since the moment OSU upset the University of Oklahoma… that’s an understatement. I, for one, am NOT surprised the Cowboys were able to beat the Sooners for two reasons. First, this was a true neutral floor game with an equal amount of fans for both schools in the Ford Center. It’s less than 100 miles away from Stillwater and the building had plenty of black and orange supporting its Pokes. Second, while OU isn’t playing its best basketball right now, OSU is, having won eight of their last nine games while covering nine straight ATS.
Missouri enters the game off a nice 21-point win vs. an over-matched Texas Tech team that was completely “spent” from the previous night’s comeback win over Texas A&M. The Tigers will get their first “challenge” of the Big 12 tourney tonight in a hostile environment while OSU already has one of those games under their belt… last night’s one-point win over OU. The Tigers clearly have the depth and talent to not only beat the Cowboys but also cover the number, but much like the Sooners, they aren’t playing their best basketball right now. Mizzou has split their last four games, getting beaten by double digits in both of their recent road games (@ Kansas and @ Texas A&M).
And let’s not forget, the last time these two met (back on January 21), Missouri blew a 26-point lead and nearly lost the game, holding on for a 97-95 win. Don’t think that didn’t leave a bad taste in the Cowboys’ mouths, and with this game basically being a home game for the Pokes you can bet the arena will be filled with OSU faithful who will be screaming for their hometown team… and we’ve seen how much the Tigers struggle on the road.
Let’s also keep something else in mind --- Marshall Moses was held scoreless last night vs. Oklahoma and they still managed to pull of the upset. Moses had previously scored in double figures in three of his last four games and was getting better as the season progressed. Don’t expect Moses to get shut out again tonight… and that’s going to pose problems for Missouri’s defense. And speaking of defense, although Missouri has played better than OSU over the season from a defensive standpoint, over the last five games OSU has stepped up its defense and allowed just 69 PPG as opposed to Missouri’s 76 PPG… and that includes allowing just 60 last night to Texas Tech.
The Cowboys are on ATS streaks of 6-0 in their last six vs. teams with a SU winning record, 7-0 ATS following a SU win, 8-0 ATS following an ATS win, and 16-6-2 in their last 24 neutral site games… not to mention the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven H2H meetings. Folks, the writing is on the wall here, the Cowboys not only cover the number, they win the game SU.
MEMPHIS --- Here we basically have another team with “home court advantage” as this game is being played in Memphis, Tennessee… and Memphis just doesn’t lose at home.
The Tigers weren’t impressive in yesterday’s 10-point win over Tulane, but once again they played exceptional defense, limiting the Green Wave to just 41 points in 40 minutes. That’s incredible. This Memphis team has been playing better defense than anyone in the country and it’s going to frustrate the Cougs again this afternoon. Houston comes in off an exhausting 89-85 OT win over UTEP and likely wont’ have the same legs they’re used to having.
And it would scare me to death if I were Houston knowing Memphis didn’t play well yesterday and still managed a 10-point win. The Tigers swept the season series, winning by nine in Houston and 14 at home, and the bottom line here is that this team is just a better overall basketball team. The Tigers have allowed more than 60 points just once in the last ten games and allow, on average, just 57 PPG over the course of the season.
Houston, on the other hand, is the complete opposite, scoring a few more points than Memphis per game, but allowing 11 PPG more and 15 more PPG on the road. Houston has won three straight, but those three wins came against UTEP in OT yesterday and vs. SMU twice. While Memphis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a SU winning record and 4-0 ATS their last four following an ATS loss, Houston is 1-7 in their last eight vs. teams from Conference USA and 1-4 their last five following a SUATS win. Lay the number the the Tigers as I expect an outright burial.
TEXAS --- Back to the Big 12 with the Texas Longhorns as an easy winner over Baylor.
I don’t care what the Bears did to Nebraska or Kansas, I watched this Baylor team two weeks ago, against these same Longhorns, get absolutely destroyed. I know because I backed the Bears as nine-point dogs and that’s what they played like… dogs. No chance they can hang with Texas for a full 40 minutes, no matter how good they appear to be playing right now.
The two wins in the tourney they’ve had are very nice, but anything other than an outright tourney win will put them square in the NIT Tournament. No disrespect meant, but this Baylor team is playing above its head and they just aren’t a very good basketball team. They don’t have the size to match up with Pittman inside and they don’t have anyone who can stick AJ Abrams (no offense to Curtis Jerrells, who is a very solid player).
Texas swept the season series by an average of double digits and should get another solid win this evening in the Ford Center. They weren’t impressive in their 61-58 win over #4 seed Kansas State, telling me they’re due to play some solid basketball tonight. Baylor’s luck is going to run out in Oklahoma City as I don’t believe they have the legs to keep this up and I don’t think their defense is good enough to keep Texas from scoring.
Before the Big 12 Tourney started, the Bears were losers of two straight and 10 of their last 12 games in conference play, COVERING JUST ONE TIME in those 12 games. Baylor hasn’t covered in any of the last 4 H2H meetings with the Longhorns and is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a SU winning record. Baylor might jump out to an early lead, but they will tire in the second half and Texas then runs away with it, winning by 10.Comment
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Re: 3-13-09
Early Ferrringo. Went 7-7 yesterday.
NOTE: THE REST OF MY PLAYS WILL BE POSTED AT NOON.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #831 Virginia Tech (+11.5) over North Carolina (Noon, Friday, March 13)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #824 Michigan State (-2) over Minnesota (Noon) AND Take #836 Wake Forest (-2) over Maryland (7 p.m.)Comment
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Re: 3-13-09
Matt Rivers 100,000* ACC NO-BRAINER Plus Bonus Lock Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000? Virginia Tech
2. 50,000? Florida State
1. You're damn right I am going to take a dozen or so points with the Hokies! And this is with or without Ty Lawson. Even if Lawson plays he is not going to be close to 100% and speed and quickness is his biggest asset which just will not fully be there. The point guard totally guides the ship and as he goes the team seems to go.
I am not at all belittling the immense talent that Roy Williams team' has. Tyler Hansbrough is as good as they come, Danny Green is a stud and the other players form a loaded loaded team that is as good as any. But Lawson is the catalyst for this high octane offense and for the Tar Heels to be laying such a gaudy price like this on a neutral court against a Hokie team that has no choice but to lay it all on the line is just too much!
Seth Greenberg is a great coach that continues to overachieve with this program and get the most out of his players. Virginia Tech is not the most talented of teams but they continue to prove themselves as very dangerous in this spot and they have the heart of a lion which we saw once again in the burial of a talented Miami team on Thursday. With being square on that bubble I see nothing but a focused team that will come out and battle UNC every step of the way.
AD Vassalo and Malcolm Delaney are no joke and this team is not just going to lace em up and be intimidated. North Carolina is not going to do anything that Tech won't expect as these teams just played in Blacksburg a week ago in a Hokie slim cover but cover nonetheless.
It's tough to play on a back-to-back against a fresher more talented team there's no doubt about it and that is why this line is as high as it is. But Va. Tech is a squad that has a ton of motivation and will not just crap in their pants. Let's not forget how the Hokies won at Wake Forest as a similar dog when Wake was undefeated and just won in a tough tough place to play at LittleJohn against a Clemson team that is always great at home. My point is that today's underdog knows a thing or two about manning up and playing in this exact type of spot.
UNC should pull this thing out, but I mean pull this thing out!
2. Georgia Tech is not a bad squad at all as I told you yesterday. The Yellow Jackets are one of the greatest 2-14 conference teams that I have ever seen. But I do think this situation will prove to be a little too much for Paul Hewitt's bunch to overcome.
Tech was able to upset a talented but always potentially egg laying team in Clemson yesterday. I told you how the Tigers a lot of times crap on themselves when not at home and that is exactly what happened yesterday and the Jackets have enough to take care of business in that spot. It was a great matchup plus way way way too many points. Here though playing for a second straight day against a grinding defensive team is just too tough.
Florida State does not wow you offensively at all but Toney Douglas is a killer and the Seminoles defense is as good as any. FSU has been red hot of late and played toe to toe in covers against both Duke and North Carolina recently and should not allow the Jackets much at all on the offensive end of the court. This is a perfect spot for the Jackets to shoot 30% and just get outphysicaled and outclassed by a team that has been firing away on all cylinders defensively and playing well enough offensively to win and cover a ton of games..
It was a great great win yesterday for Tech but the magic will just not be there today. Shumpert, Peacock, Clinch and the Jackets will run out of gas and get outclassed today!Comment
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Re: 3-13-09
Marc Lawrence
100% Perfect Revenge Play!
Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Indiana Pacers
It may be Friday the 13th but that won’t stop us from stepping out on the Pacers in a big way tonight. For openers, Indiana has been the league’s best performer when looking to avenge a same season defeat this campaign, going 17-6-1 ATS, including 14-3-1 ATS if the loss was by 5 or more points. In addition, Indy has been like money-in-the-bank in same season revenge in this series going 17-8 SU and ATS, including 5-0 SU and ATS as a dog. With the Hawks caught smack in the middle of a live Jazz/Trailblazers same season revenge sandwich we’ll snap the rubber band with the Pacers tonight.
We recommend a 5-unit play on the Pacers.Comment
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Re: 3-13-09
indiancowboy
2 Unit Play. Take Kentucky +1 over LSU (Friday @ 1pm est).This is just a 2* Selection here but I feel that Kentucky is just playing better basketball than LSU right now. Yes, LSU did win the SEC Championship but let's not forget that this team has struggled in its last two games losing to Vanderbilt at home and Auburn on the road. I think winning the SEC Championship could have been the worst thing that happened to this team as they have lost the edge as the dog and now are the favorite. Kentucky remembers losing to this team on their home floor and frankly, Kentucky has to win this game to go to the NCAA Tournament. If they do not win this game, they very well might have a one way ticket going to the NIT which will not suit the fans of Kentucky. I expect Kentucky, a team that ended the year on a poor note going 0-4 in conference play, who started the game off very poor against LSU and then made a strong comeback, to start this game off strong from start to finish and surprise a lot of folks here by pulling off the upset. Why do you think he line is just +1 and 66% of the public likes LSU the SEC Champs here? The line is indicative of a Kentucky upset and we will be on the side of the upset. Kentucky starts off strong from the opening minute to the closing minute as I think LSU will be a little shell shocked and their lack of edge coming into the tourney might bite them in the rear today.Comment
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