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Sunday 12/31/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -108
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Indianapolis Colts off a 29-10 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. They have actually been on the road for five of their last seven games overall. In their two home games during this span they were dominant, beating the Steelers 30-13 and the Bucs 27-20.
The Colts have everything to play for right now tied for first place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Texans. They will be max motivated. They just got RB Jonathan Taylor back from injury last week, and more reinforcements should be on the way this week with top WR Michael Pittman and backup RB Zack Moss both expected to return to action as both returned to practice this week.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Las Vegas Raiders. They caught a Chargers team that quit on their head coach two weeks ago in their 63-21 victory. Then last week it took nothing short of a miracle for them to beat the Chiefs 20-14 outright as double-digit underdogs. They celebrated that win over the Chiefs like it was their Super Bowl, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Colts this week. They are also on a short week after playing on Christmas Monday.
The Raiders beat the Chiefs despite managing just 62 total passing yards for the game. They had all 62 passing yards in the first quarter and had zero passing yards each of the next three quarters. They scored two defensive touchdowns in a span of seven seconds, which is very fluky. They only managed two field goals against the Chiefs on offense. Aidan O'Connell has been one of the worst QB's in the NFL since taking over, and I don't think he can keep up with the Colts in this one.
The Colts are averaging 27.0 points per game, 375.9 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play at home this season. Gardner Minshew will be very pleased to have his full compliment of weapons this week after he didn't have them against the Falcons on the road last week. The Raiders are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 236.9 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on the road this season.
The Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a big upset win as a double-digit underdog. They are getting outscored by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Colts Sunday.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- Tampa Bay are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
- New Orleans are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- New Orleans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
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