3-19-09

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:13 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Marc Lawrence Playbook

5* Butler over LSU

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Tony George | CBB Sides
dime bet742 Penn St. -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 741 Rhode Island
Analysis:

Penn State -1
CHEAP Line for Penn State who is on a strong homecourt (16-3 on the Year), and who played in the tough Big 10 this season beating numerous NCAA Tourney teams in here. Rhode Island off a win at Niagara and travel again to College Station on back to back roadies in 2 days time. HUGE advantage for a solid Penn State team off a buzzer beater win against a good George Mason team. Like Penn State at home with their depth and tougher schedule.
Play 1 Unit on Penn State

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Evan Altemus | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet734 Washington -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 733 Miss. St

Analysis:
Washington is one of the more disrespected teams in the entire country. They won the Pac 10 regular season title and had several impressive wins throughout conference play. They struggled at the start of the year but closed the season in impressive fashion. Now they get to play their first game of the tournament very close to home in Portland, Oregon. Mississippi State is just happy to be here after winning the SEC Championship. Their biggest advantage over teams is their big man Jarvis Varnado, but Washington will be able to take away that strength with the dominant inside play of Jon Brockman. The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and they have outstanding guard play to complement Brockman. Mississippi State really struggled in non-conference play with losses against Washington State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Charlotte, and San Diego. Now they have to travel across the country and play almost a home game for Washington. The Bulldogs struggled away from home all season, and they won?t be able to keep this game close. Look for Washington to get a dominant opening round win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 3-19-09

BALFE

NCAA Basketball
BYU -3 over Texas A&M
American +16.5 over Villanova
Michigan/Clemson Under 137.5
Morgan State +16.5 over Oklahoma

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:14 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Memphis -20 over CS Northridge

The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, while the Matadors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Memphis is a team that will be on a mission in this NCAA Tourney as they felt they should have been a number 1 seed. The Tigers defense is one of the tops in the Nation as they have allowed just 56.9 ppg and 36.2% shooting overall this year and it has been even stingier down the stretch were they have allowed just 44 ppg on an unheard of 29.6% shooting from the floor in their last 4 games. Now that's playing some defense. Oh year they won those 4 games by an average of 21.8 ppg. CS Northridge has had a good offensive year as they have averaged 73.8 ppg overalland 69.6 ppg away from home, but facing Big West defenses is a lot different than facing this one. Speaking of defense, that is not something the Matadors do great. CS Nothridge has allowed 70.2 ppg on the year, including 73.3 ppg when playing away from home. The Matadors have played 7 non-conference foes away from home and they have allowed 78.9 ppg in those games. Bad defense in that spot and now they will take on the 67th ranked scoring offense in the country, as the Tigers have put up 74.1 ppg on the year. I really have a hard time seeing the Matadors putting more than 52 or 53 on the board in this one, while I do see Memphis hitting 75+. The Tigers will be playing with a chip on their shoulders and that cannot be good news for the Matadors today.

3 UNIT PLAY

NOTRE DAME -4.5 over New Mexico

The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win., while the Fighting Irish are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. We all know how the Lobo's play in The Pit, but this isn't the Pit and they have struggled when taking to the road this year. The Lobos have gone just 6-6 in their true road games, plus another 0-3 in their neutral site games. The Irish stumbled ast home during the middle of the year after haveing a long winning streak at home, but this team is still very tough at home, where they are 13-3 and have outscored their opponents by 12.5 ppg. Defense has not been a strong suit for the Irish this year, but they do allow just 63.1 ppg on 39.9% shooting at home and they have allowed just 64 ppg on 36.8% shooting in their last 5 overall. The Irish have had somne problems scoring of late, but this team still has put up 76.5 ppg on thier home floor this year, including 86 ppg in their non-conf home games. New Mexico can score but their defense has been less than stellar of late as they have allowed 73.8 ppg in their last 5 games. With the way the irish play defense and score at home they should have no problems covering the spread vs a Lobos team that is like a fish out of water when they leave The Pit. Notre Dame by 8+ here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Texas A&M +2.5 over BYU

The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The AgGies had a stron g finish to their season as they had won their last 6 regular season games before losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. Down the stretch they had a win at Nebraska, a 15 point home win over Texas and a 10 point home win vs a very strong Missouri squad. BYU has had a nice year themselves as they were 25-7 overall, but their offense has struggled down the stretch as thyey have averaged 67.4 ppg in their last 5 games, which is 10 points lower than their season average. The Aggies offense has taken off of late as they have averaged 79 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams have played well defensively this year, but I believe the Aggies offense will do more damage than BYU's in this one and get a solid upset win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

UConn/ Chattanooga Under 145

The Under is 4-0 in Mocs last 4 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Ok, Let's throw out that 6 OT game vs the Cuse for a moment. If we dso that then we will see that the previous 12 UConn games have averaged just 131.8 ppg, with only 2 of those games scoring more than today's total. UConn games have averaged 141 ppg bon the year, while their games away from home have averaged just 131 ppg. UConn plays great defense and should be able to hold a strong Mocs offense doiwn, while their own offense does enough to get the win here. I just don't see more than 140 in this one.

Maryland +1.5 over California

The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss, while the Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bears are just not playing well defensively right now as they have allowed 77.8 ppg in their last 5 games. look for the terps to take advantage and move on in the Big Dance.

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:15 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Karl Garrett

40 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY....10 DIMERS - CLEMSON & MEMPHIS
40 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS

I was not a big believer in this Illinois team during the regular season, and now that guard Chester Frazier is hurting, I am less of a believer in Bruce Weber's bunch.

Even if Frazier can go, how much can he really contribute with his hurt hand? I say not much, and I say the Illini are in for a dog fight in Portland tonight.

Western Kentucky is no fluke, as they come into this one having won their last 7, and they have also covered their last 5.

Illinois is struggling, as the Illini have dropped 3 of their last 4 both straight up, and against the spread.

The Hilltoppers have the experience to give this relatively inexperienced Illini team a tussle for the full 40-minutes.

Take the points here, as Western Kentucky may just be able to spring the outright as well.

10 DIMER - CLEMSON TIGERS

Yes, Clemson faltered down the stretch, but I will give Oliver Purnell's team a shot here against a Michigan team who are only in because of early season upset wins over UCLA, and Duke.

The Wolverines have struggled down the stretch as well, as Michigan is just 5-5 straight up their last 10 games. There is a good chance Clemson stretches this one out early, and we don't have to sweat at all laying the 5-points the Tigers are currently favored by as I type this.

Don't worry about the late season swoon the Tigers are going through, it won't bite them in this one, as the matchups favor Clemson hands down.

Lay it!

10 DIMER - MEMPHIS TIGERS - 12:25 PM

Talk about laying it, I say to "lay it" with the # 2 seeded Tigers.

John Calipari's team owns the nation's longest winning streak, yet the tourny committee does not believe they are strong enough to garner a # 1 seed. You know damn well that Calipari will make this his rallying cry, and last year's finalists will take no prisoners along the way.

Memphis has really been bothered this season against the spread as they are 22-11 overall in lined games this year, and they have covered 18 of their last 24 coming into this game, including their last pair, and 4 of 5.

Northridge is happy to be "dancing", but it will be a quick one for them, as they have not seen the likes of the Tigers in their regular season conference play.

As Dicky V would say; "It's Rout City, BAY-BEEEE!!!!!!"

Lay it with Memphis!
Today's Complimentary Selection

Another comp play winner last night on Bowling Green plus the points, as the G-Man is now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.

Going tonight, lay the points in Portland as Gonzaga enjoys the "home cooking" against Akron.

The 'Zags Spokane campus is not too far away from the Rose Garden, so expect to see plenty of Bulldog backers in the stands this evening. Not that Mark Few's team will need much support, as the Bulldogs have won their last 9, and even better still is the fact they have covered their last 3, and are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 lined games, all in the favored role.

Akron won the MAC tournament for their automatic ticket to the Dance, but they did close the regular season by losing 3 of their final 5.

This is a Gonzaga team that has plenty of experience, and the G-Man is calling for the 'Zags to be dancing late in this tourny.

Lay the double-digits, as Gonzaga makes it look easy in their opening round.

5? GONZAGA
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:15 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Thursday March 19, 2009

2:30p
The Prezz NA
Northern Iowa r731
+9.5 (-110) / 5 units

2:55p
The Prezz NA
Maryland r725
+2.0 (-110) / 6 units

3:00p
The Prezz NA
Tenn Chattanooga r715
+21.5 (-110) / 4 units

9:40p
The Prezz NA
Morgan State r727
+17.5 (-110) / 5 units

9:40p
The Prezz NA
Binghamton r707
+23.0 / 4 units

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 08:48 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Jeff Benton

Thursday's Big Dance winners ...
30 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU) ... NOTE: If this line is sitting at 7 1/2, invest in some insurance and buy the half-point and only lay 7. DO NOT get beat by the hook in this game!

10 Dime: WASHINGTON (minus the points vs. Mississippi State)

5 Dime: WESTERN KENTUCKY (plus the points vs. Illinois)

5 Dime: CHATTANOOGA (plus the points vs. UConn)

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:23 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Chris Jordan

600? VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH - Analysis by 4 p.m. eastern

100? WESTERN KENTUCKY -

100? MORGAN STATE -

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:23 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Michael Cannon

Thursday's Plays...

20 Dime –

MICHIGAN

Take the points with Michigan over Clemson in the South Region.

I like the Wolverines mainly because of their coaching edge with John Beilein. This is a guy who gives his opposition fits with his 1-3-1 zone defense. You can be sure that Clemson hasn’t seen anything like this, and with the Tigers propensity for slipping down the stretch I don’t expect them to have an answer for it.

The Tigers also ranked last in the ACC in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, which is a death sentence going against Beilein’s perimeter oriented offense.

Michigan has jelled late in the season, covering six of its last eight games (4-1 ATS in its last five as a dog). The Wolverines have proven capable of competing with some of the nation’s best programs, knocking off Duke and Ucla this year.

Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral-site games and 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.

Take the points with Michigan and don’t be surprised to see them win outright here.

10 Dime –

LSU

Take Lsu as the small chalk over Butler.

I know Butler is a favorite among the public, as this marks their 3rd straight appearance in the Big Dance. They advanced to the second found last year, but fell to Tennessee in overtime.

But there’s no substitute for experience, and the Tigers have the edge here. First-year head coach Trent Johnson led Nevada and Stanford to the Sweet Sixteen in his previous six seasons before taking over in Baton Rouge. Lsu also has a talented, athletic frontcourt led by Marcus Thornton, the SEC Player of the Year, and Tasmin Mitchell.

Those two will make life tough for Butler’s Matt Howard, who didn’t face this kind of talent in the Horizon League.

Butler has three freshmen in its starting lineup and believe me they’re going to feel the pressure of tournament play here.

Lsu defends the perimeter well which will keep the long-range shooters of Butler at bay, and the Tigers won’t give the ball away easily, as they averaged just 12 TO’s per game this year.

Butler failed to cover in five of its last seven overall and I like the experience and coaching of Lsu to get them the win here.

Take Lsu minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

5 Dime –

TEXAS A&M

Take Texas A&M as the small dog over Byu in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

This is a rematch of an opening-round tournament game last year, and I expect the same outcome, as the Aggies prevailed 67-62 in that game.

The Cougars haven’t fared well in past tourneys, going 11-26 SU all-time, including 0-2 SUATS under coach Dave Rose.

Texas A&M enters the tournament on a nice run, despite blowing a 21-point second-half lead to Texas Tech and losing 88-83 in the Big 12 tournament. Prior to that loss the Aggies had won six in a row and are on a current 10-3 ATS run.

I like the balance A&M has on offense and I believe that will allow them to get consistent open looks.

Byu has failed to cash in four of its last five tournament games and is also on ATS slides of 1-4 at neutral sites, 5-11 on Thursday and 1-6 after a non-cover.

Texas A&M is on ATS runs of 17-5 at neutral sites, 7-3 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the NCAA tournament, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-0 as a dog, 10-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 19-7 after a SU loss.

Take the points with Texas A&M as they get it done over Byu.

MARYLAND

Take Maryland as the small dog over Cal this afternoon in the West Region.

The Terps made a nice run in the ACC tournament to gain entry into the Big Dance and I expect them to continue their run.

Maryland’s interior deficiencies aren’t likely to be exposed by Cal, as the Bears rely on their perimeter game for the brunt of their offense.

The only problem is Cal hasn’t been knocking down enough 3-pointers recently, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS down the stretch.

Maryland has the edge in the backcourt anyway with Greivis Vasquez, who is capable of lighting up anyone on any given day. The Terps as a team have risen to the occasion at various times this year with upsets of Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest.

Cal hasn’t shown that it can beat that kind of opposition this year and I like the Terps big-game experience to pull them through this one.

Maryland is on positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action.

Take Maryland as they grab the win.

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:23 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Tony Weston

THURSDAY'S PLAYS
30 Dime Western Kentucky

15 Dime Mississippi State

10 Dime Texas

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:27 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Matt Fagro Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, March 20, 2009
$50.00 Guaranteed: ***** went 12-8 ATS (60%) during the conference tourneys and his TOP RATED REPORTS were king! During the regular season, his 10* GAME OF THE YEAR reports went an AWESOME 8-4 ATS (66.7%)! His 9* and 10* GOY Tournament reports went a TREMENDOUS 8-2 ATS (80%) for a combined 16-6 ATS (72.7%)! 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR goes Friday! Do not miss out on this MONSTER! Guaranteed! 3/16/2009

**10** 1ST RND GAME OF THE YEAR *16-6 RUN* Wisconsin comes into the NCAA Tournament as a number 12 seed meaning it along with Arizona was the last teams to get into the field of 65. It may come as a surprise to many that the Badgers were seeded so low but not me. I didn’t think they deserved to be here in the first place. The Badgers finished strong, going 7-2 over their last nine games but included in those seven wins were four victories against teams not making the tournament including two against Indiana. Wisconsin quietly bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a loss against Ohio St. which was its 9th loss this season when it had a lead with under six minutes remaining. Sure, that said the Badgers have hung around in their games this season but it also tells us that they do not have what it takes to win these games down the stretch. Solid defense has been the difference in year’s past but that is not the case this year. After leading the nation in scoring defense last year, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as efficient this year. When Indiana shot 54 percent against Wisconsin in Sunday’s regular-season finale, they hit the postseason allowing opponents to shoot 44.0 percent from the floor which was good for ninth place in the Big Ten. After the Buckeyes game, they are allowing 44.4 percent shooting and here is the real kicker. Wisconsin is one of only four teams in the entire tournament that is getting outshot on the season (Michigan, Tennessee-Chattanooga and Portland St. are the others). The schedule has been tough as it is ranked 11th in the nation but in comparison. The Seminoles have played the 13th ranked schedule and they have outshot opponents by +4.9 percent. Over the last five games, Florida St. is +10.5 percent in shooting margin while the Badgers are -5.7 percent in shooting margin. That is an enormous difference. Florida St. made a great run through the ACC Tournament and this is a dangerous NCAA Tournament team. The Seminoles are long and athletic and they are dangerous both up top and down low and a combination of the two is often the main ingredient for advancing in this tournament. Guard Toney Douglas finished the regular season by scoring in double figures in 19 straight games, including 19 or more points in his last 15 ACC games while averaging 23.5 ppg during that span. Center Solomon Alabi leads the ACC with 67 blocked shots, and the Seminoles finished the regular season with twice as many blocked shots (180) as their opponents (89). The Badgers will no doubt be keying on Douglas but as mentioned, the defense is far from what it used to be like as there is no lock down defender similar to Michael Flowers from last year. The Seminoles are allowing opponents to shoot 9.3 percent less than what the Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot over the last five games. Considering Florida St. has played Duke twice and North Carolina in that span, it is even more impressive. Wisconsin is just 3-10 ATS in the second half of this season when playing a team with a winning record. It has struggled against the better defensive teams, going 1-9 ATS in the second half of the year against teams allowing 42 percent shooting or better. Florida St. meanwhile is 7-1 ATS following a loss this season and it has won those games by nearly 10 ppg. If there is a team that matches up well with Pittsburgh in this bracket, it is the Seminoles, just look at the first meeting this season, and we could see a Sweet 16 rematch next weekend. 10* Florida St. Seminoles

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:28 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Scott Rickenbach

3/19/2009
12:20:00 PM LOUISIANA STATE TIGERS (-2)
over Butler Bulldogs
Scott Rickenbach’s March Madness Game #714 – 1* (regular play) LSU Tigers (-) vs Butler @ Greensboro, NC @ 12:20 PM ET – Butler is a “trendy” choice here but it’s for the wrong reasons. The Bulldogs have been a “Cinderella Story” in the past and so people have latched onto that and love having Butler as an underdog. The result for us is line value as this line continues to creep lower and lower. We successfully faded Butler in the Horizon League Championship Game when they lost outright to Cleveland State! Among the top tier teams in the Horizon League, those with 11 conference wins or more, the Bulldogs lost to all but one of them at least once. In addition to losses to Wisconsin Green Bay, the Vikings, and Wisconsin Milwaukee, the Bulldogs also lost in non-conference action against Ohio State. Simply put, this team is a notch below prior versions and it has a lot to do with the Bulldogs youth. The inexperience of Butler will show up in a big way now that the Big Dance is underway! LSU is a gritty SEC team that has good size and does the “little things” on the floor that often don’t show up in a box score but yet equate to wins in the standings! This is a big part of the reason they enjoyed so much success in Trent Johnson’s first season as the head coach of the Tigers. LSU has Chris Johnson in the paint and that senior is joined on the floor with seniors Marcus Thornton and Garrett Temple. Thornton is a big-time scorer and Temple is a strong defender. Also, Bo Spencer does a fantastic job running the team even though he’s only a sophomore. Also, even though Thornton is considered the “go-to guy” on offense, Tasmin Mitchell, a junior, has hit critical shots throughout the season and is a very strong rebounder. We understand the “affection” for Butler here but the Bulldogs are much younger than the Tigers and also will be at a size disadvantage at every position on the floor. Yes, LSU was “tripped up” some late in the season but, after a ten game winning streak from late Jan to the end of Feb, the Tigers came up flat against Vandy after a big road win at Kentucky. That didn’t leave a lot of “fuel” in the tank for their regular season finale at Auburn and so they fell well short. As for the SEC Tourney, they knocked off Kentucky again before falling short against Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs are a very solid team and strong defensively. That had a lot to do with the Tigers taking ten more shots from the field than the Bulldogs and yet still losing. You can bet that LSU is not going to shoot 31% from the field again here! We are betting on that too and the Tigers are offering tremendous value here against an over-rated Butler team! Play LSU minus the points as a regular selection

**Mr. IWS** · 03-19-2009, 09:28 AM

Re: 3-19-09

Bob Valentino

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's 30 Dime winner!
30 DIME -- UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU)

3-19-09

3-19-09

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