3-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Texas A&M vs BYU 12:30 PM EST 20* BYU -2.5
CBB Maryland vs California 2:55 PM EST 20* California -1.5
CBB No Iowa vs Purdue 2:30 PM EST 20* No Iowa +8.5
CBB Butler vs LSU 12:20 PM EST 10* LSU -1.5
CBB Miss ST vs Washington 5:00 PM EST 10* Washington -6
CBB Radford vs North Carolina 2:50 PM EST (Opinion) North Carolina -25
CBB Tenn Chat vs Connecticut 3:00 PM EST (Opinion) Connecticut -20.5
CBB CS Northridge vs Memphis 12:20 PM EST (Opinion) Memphis -19.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

CHARLIE

cbb.
butler vs lsu over 127' & texas a & m vs byu over 139 (500* 2 team parlay)
cbb. cal st northridge +20 (30*)
cbb. north carolina va radford over 162' (20*)
cbb. north carolina -25 (20*)
cbb. uconn-20' (10*)
cbb. texas a&m+2 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Jim hurley inner circle

2 stars on northern iowa +8.5
2 stars on lsu -2
2 stars - byu -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

helmut

3/19/09 CBB BYU Under 139.5 -110 (718)

ANALYSIS: These teams both met last season in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and it was a hard fought game played down to the wire. The game played to a total of 118 total possessions and only went over the total by one point where both teams shot the ball well from the field. We saw the Aggies play slower pace games early in the season against up-tempo opponents in LSU, Arizona and Alabama which all ended up being lower scoring games. I think it is in the best interest for the Aggies to keep the pace slower as they did last season because they are not the most fluid offensive team and is sometimes are plagued by turnovers and shooting funks. The Cougars were the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference and rank #22 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Helmut

BYU Under 139.5

These teams both met last season in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and it was a hard fought game played down to the wire. The game played to a total of 118 total possessions and only went over the total by one point where both teams shot the ball well from the field. We saw the Aggies play slower pace games early in the season against up-tempo opponents in LSU, Arizona and Alabama which all ended up being lower scoring games. I think it is in the best interest for the Aggies to keep the pace slower as they did last season because they are not the most fluid offensive team and is sometimes are plagued by turnovers and shooting funks. The Cougars were the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference and rank #22 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:05 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) ATS: Atlanta Hawks -6 (-110) (Play of the Day)



4 Unit Play. #702. Take the Atlanta Hawks -6 over the Dallas Mavericks (Thursday @ 7pm est). I just wrote a detailed blog article about the Hawks and how they have been playing even better without him in the lineup as Maurice Evans has stepped up nicely. The Hawks have covered 6 contests in a row:

defeated Sacramento 119-97 – covering the -12 spread (W)
defeated Portland 98-80 – covering the -4 spread (W)

defeated Indiana 101-87 – covering the -6 spread (W)

defeated Utah 100-93 – covering the -1.5 spread (W)
defeated New Orleans 89-79 – covering the +1.5 spread (W)

defeated Detroit 87-83 – covering the -2.5 spread.

The Hawks have also done well of late in fourth quarters:

4th Quarter against the Kings: 27-11, 4th Quarter against the Blazers: 26-19, 4th Quarter against the Pacers: 26-23, 4th Quarter against the Jazz: 27-18, 4th Quarter against the Hornets: 22-19, and 4th Quarter against the Pistons: 24-23.

In short, the Hawks are playing very well at home, they look to win their 7th straight, they lost to the Mavs earlier this year by a bucket, the Mavs are still a bit dinged up and have been shaky on the road of late losing the Lakers understandable), GS, New Orleans and OKC. I can see the Hawks getting their revenge and playing well today as they will look forward to this game. Again, no Josh Howard as he is out indefinitely and I like how the Mavs come off a win against Detroit although they nearly coughed it up in a big way. Look for the Hawks bench to step up today as this team has become deeper with the absence of Williams. The Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning SU record meaning they show up well against the better teams in the league.

Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.









Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Texas Longhorns - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) ATS: Minnesota Golden Gophers +4.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)



4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota +4.5 over Texas (Thursday @ 7:10pm est). If you wait, you might be able to get a better line closer to tip-off as the public is all over the jockstrap of Texas in this contest. I'm glad we cashed with Oregon State last night outright over Houston. That comes off the heels of Oakland over Kent the other night for a 2-0 start to the week in college ball. For today, let's kick off the NCAA Round 1 with a winner on the hardwood with another potential outright winner in Minnesota. The line sits at +4 and has not budged. This is despite the fact that in a public consensus this morning that over 71% are riding Texas here. I have written extensively that I am not the greatest fan of Texas this year. I really enjoy watching Barnes's coach and I think this year he has done wonders. He has done a lot with a crop of players that are not his most talented bunch. In fact, I think A.J. Abrahms is a bit overrated. I believe people are really forgetting all that Minnesota has accomplished this year. Remember, Minnesota went toe to toe with Michigan State in the conference championship. Minnesota is extremely well coached and Tubby knows how to spot weaknesses in his opponents. And Texas has a ton of weaknesses. Remember, Texas was very vulnerable all year long on the road. This team lost to Nebraska, A&M, Kansas State at home, Oklahoma State on the road and Arkansas on the road. This Texas team I think underestimated Baylor who defeated them. Now, Texas did beat Villanova, but the Villanova early in the year to the Villanova now is different imo. Tubby Smith is a solid big game coach. I personally think this game is a tossup. I like the team shooting the 71% in free throws and who plays sound defense. In a total of 126.5, the 4.5 points is nice (it might be 5 for you). Plus, this is a nice public fade here and I think Minnesota will take out A.J. quickly and will require another player to step up. Plus, when Minnesota gets a lead, they sit on it like a beast and will slow this game down to a snail's pace which should make Texas feel uncomfortable and frustrated. Congrats Tubby, you have done it once again proving that you can coach anywhere and even recruit in a non-basketball state like Minnesota. I hope the Kentucky Athletic Department feel like fools - because they are. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games while the Longhorns are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tourney games as a small chalk favorite under 6.5 points.

Good luck,

Indian Cowboy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

kbhoops

The NBA POD will be out by 6 eastern. The final card for todays NCAA Tourney is below. Lets get it going!!

3* Memphis UNDER 131.5
3* Butler +1.5
3* California -1.5
3* Washington -6
3* BYU/Tex A@M UNDER 139.5
2* Texas -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Stan Sharp | CBB Sides
double-dime bet732 Purdue -8.5 (-110) BetUS vs 731 Northern Iowa
Analysis: Stan is Betting PURDUE today. Stan notes that the Big 10 is generally not perceived as a Conference that dominates and blows their opponents out. With that said most of the square money around town is coming in on N. Iowa in this game as most expect this to be a close game. Purdue put it all together in the Big 10 Conference tournament and will ride that winning momentum here against a out manned N. Iowa team. Stan has Purdue winning by 12-15 points here. TAKE PURDUE as STAN SHARP'S BIG DANCE OPENING BLOWOUT and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

d malinsk 4*

GAME: Maryland @ California Mar 19, 2009 2:55PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Maryland
Offered at: 2 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #725 MARYLAND over CALIFORNIA
2:55 Eastern

We wanted to wait this one out until the market move to Cal reached its peak, and now that +2 has become available across the board there is not hesitation to back the better team in this value range, and also one that matches up quite well.

Not much was expected from Maryland this season because of an uninspiring front-court, and when the Terrapins were rocked 108-91 at North Carolina on February 3rd it appeared that they had reached rock-bottom, and might not make any kind of post-season tourney at all. But as great coaches do Gary Williams reached back at that darkest moment. In the locker room of the Dean Smith Center he put in writing that the Terrapins would beat then Tar Heels in their rematch at College Park, and asked for any players that also believed to sign their names. It worked. As part of a late-season surge Maryland beat Carolina 88-85 at home in overtime, and the team is playing with an entirely different confidence level now.

There were also some personnel adjustments, with Sean Mosley entering the starting lineup at guard and Eric Hayes coming off the bench, and it is a move that worked for both players. Mosley adds a defensive and rebounding presence at the position, while a pure scorer like Hayes can often be at his best coming off the bench – he broke his former career high of 19 points twice in last weekend’s A.C.C. tourney, scoring 21 points against N. C. State and 20 against Duke (from Williams - "I think Eric Hayes -- maybe because of his background as being the son of a coach -- he gets a chance to watch for a couple minutes. He's able to see some things that help him when he gets in. And he knows that in the second half he's going to be in there most of the time.")

The insertion of Mosley may not have mattered more in any game than it will in this one. It is the size and defensive ability of the Maryland guards that keys the matchup, with Mosley’s 6-4, and the 6-6 of Greivis Vasquez, making it tough on Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher to find their usual open looks on the perimeter, and we will also see the 6-2 Adrian Bowie on 5-10 Randle as well. The Cal guards combined to knocked down 128 triples this season, while averaging 33.0 points per game, and if they are negated the rest of the arsenal is nothing special at all, particularly a defense that allowed 44 percent shooting, and only generated 401 turnovers in 32 games. This is a team that lacks post-season experience (two NIT games in three years, and a quick bow-out in the Pac 10 tourney last week); and does not merit the favorite’s role in this setting.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

dr canada

canadiens over 5.5
oilers over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Texas A&M vs BYU 12:30 PM EST 20* BYU -2.5
CBB VCU vs UCLA 9:50 PM EST 20* UCLA -7.5
CBB Morgan St vs Oklahoma 9:40 PM EST 20* Morgan St +16.5
CBB Maryland vs California 2:55 PM EST 20* California -1.5
CBB No Iowa vs Purdue 2:30 PM EST 20* No Iowa +8.5
CBB Butler vs LSU 12:20 PM EST 10* LSU -1.5
CBB Western Kentucky vs Illinois 9:55 PM EST 10* Western Kentucky +5
CBB Miss ST vs Washington 5:00 PM EST 10* Washington -6
CBB Akron vs Gonzaga 7:25 PM EST 10* Akron +13.5
CBB Minnesota vs Texas 7:10 PM EST 10* Minnesota +5
CBB Radford vs North Carolina 2:50 PM EST (Opinion) North Carolina -25
CBB American vs Villanova 7:20 PM EST (Opinion) Villanova -16.5
CBB Binghamton vs Duke 9:40 PM EST (Opinion) Binghamton +20.5
CBB Michigan vs Clemson 7:10 PM EST (Opinion) Michigan +5
CBB Tenn Chat vs Connecticut 3:00 PM EST (Opinion) Connecticut -20.5
CBB CS Northridge vs Memphis 12:20 PM EST (Opinion) Memphis -19.5

More added

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Gregg Price

10* Minnesota
5* Rhode Island
5* Michigan
4* Northern Iowa
4* American
4* UCLA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

VEGAS RUNNER

UConn 2*
Illinois 4* GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Robert FerRringo

3-Unit Play. Take #710 Texas (-4) over Minnesota
You want to talk about backing into the NCAA Tournament. I honestly and truly have no idea what Minnesota is doing in this tournament. I think they are an awful team and other than one fluke win over Louisville back in mid-December this team has done absolutely nothing to justify its berth. The Gophers have lost seven of their last 11 games and 9 of their last 14. They did not beat Purdue, Michigan State, or Michigan in the Big 10 this year, and their only wins in conference after Jan. 16 were against Indiana (twice), Northwestern (twice), and Wisconsin and Illinois with both games at The Barn. Minnesota has been pathetic on the road this year and when I look at this team I just don’t see it.

Say what you will about Texas – about how they underachieved this year and about how overrated they are – but they have wins against Villanova, UCLA and at Wisconsin. They also played Michigan State much, much tighter than Minnesota did in any of its three attempts. The core of this Longhorns squad has played in six NCAA Tournament games over the last two years and Rick Barnes has won at least one game (and coached in 10) in the tourney in each of the past three seasons. This Texas team has a shot at redemption here. They have a shot to salvage a disappointing year. And that makes them dangerous. Texas’s weakness is it’s point guard situation. But the Gophers don’t have the guards to really exploit Texas’ shaky backcourt. A.J. Abrams is easily the best player on the floor and I just think that Texas’ big men are simply better than Minnesota’s inexperienced group. Texas has four double-digit scorers to Minnesota’s one and we’ve seen the Tubby Smith NCAA Flameout before (that is why he got bounced from Kentucky).

2.5-Unit Play. Take #734 Washington (-6) over Mississippi State
This play falls into the exact same systems that I used last year to score a nice top play winner with Xavier in the first round of last year’s tournament. The crux of the system is on two things: 1) a top seeded team that was upset in its conference tournament, and 2) an underdog that just made a run and won its conference tournament. Last year it was Xavier, which got bounced early out of the A-10 tournament, meeting the SEC Cinderella Georgia. This year we have a Huskies team that has played very strong basketball most of the year going up against another SEC underdog.

No. 4 seeds that are off a straight-up loss are 26-10 ATS in their first round game. If they are off a loss and a favorite of 9.0 or less they are a solid 16-3 ATS. Further, underdogs that are getting 3.0 or more points that are coming off a win as an underdog of 6.0 or more are a terrible 21-42 ATS in their first round game. Now, the line on the Miss. State game against Tennessee closed at 5.5. But I think that the reasoning is sound and that it fits this system.

Next, Washington has not been a great road team over the last few years. But they are playing in nearby Portland, which is a long way from SEC country for Mississippi State. I think that the Huskies are underrated and coming from an underrated Pac-10 this season. I believe that their experience and their balanced scoring will lead the way, and I look for Jon Brockman to really go at Jarvis Varnardo. Brockman has been getting it done for four years against NBA-caliber forwards and centers in the Pac-10 so he isn’t going to be scared of Varnardo. I like the Huskies to pull through late after getting behind early, and I like them to send home the SEC reps from Mississippi State with an 11-point loss.


2.5-Unit Play. Take #730 Clemson (-5) over Michigan (
I really think right now that people are not giving this Clemson team enough credit. This Tigers team has proven itself against some of the top teams in the country over the last two seasons. And right now they have a Big 10 team teed up in their sites and I think that they could roll in this one. I know that Michigan is a “sexy” sleeper pick right now but I’m not buying this young team making many waves.

Ever hear of the ACC-Big 10 shootout? Who ALWAYS dominates that series? The ACC, right? Well why should we expect it to be any difference here. Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the Big 10 while Michigan is 1-5 ATS against the ACC. This one is about relative conference strength and I don’t think there is any doubt that there is better basketball being played in the ACC. The Tigers won at Illinois this year while Michigan really floundered away from home – including a five-point loss at Maryland and a 15-point loss against Duke – while compiling just a 6-11 road/neutral record.

The Tigers are more athletic and – and this is key – I like their guard play significantly more than I like Michigan’s. The Wolverines enter the tournament just 7-10 since mid-January. And much like Minnesota their wins were against Northwestern (twice), Minnesota (twice) and then a couple home wins. That’s not at all impressive. Clemson is just 1-4 in its last five games. But since mid January five of their eight losses have come to North Carolina, Wake Forest and Florida State. Not too shabby. I love Trevor Booker and Michigan doesn’t have anyone to matchup with him on the inside. And although Manny Harris can be explosive I think Clemson will key on him and be able to hold him down a bit. And Clemson has two guys who are just as explosive as Harris in the backcourt in K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby.


2.5-Unit Play. Take #726 California (-1.5) over Maryland
I really feel like the Pac-10 is getting no love from the public and certainly no respect from the NCAA selection committee. I believe that this is a very dangerous Cal team and I think that if they can get out of this first round game they are a team that can make some serious noise. I think Mike Montgomery has this team pointed very securely in the right direction and that the talent that this team has in the backcourt is as good as anything you can find in the country.

Maryland has been playing very good ball to close the season. But other than a stunning overtime win at home against North Carolina and a neutral site win over shaky-as-hell Wake Forest, I can’t say that I have seen many quality wins on the Terps’ schedule over the last month-plus. In fact, heading into the ACC Tournament this team was just 6-9 in its last 15 games with the wins coming mostly at home (Miami, UVA, Va. Tech) or at the expense of North Carolina State. That doesn’t impress me. And I also wonder if the Terps expelled so much energy just to get to the Big Dance if they have anything left.

Cal is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the country. And those boys are legit on the perimeter. If you can knock down shots – and Cal runs a great offense – then you can win games in the NCAA Tournament. Cal won at Washington. They won at Arizona. They won at Utah and at UNLV. Those are no-joke road wins. The Terps were just 4-8 in road/neutral games prior to their tourney. I love Jerome Randle. And I don’t think that Maryland has the size underneath to take advantage of the Bears’ weakness. Cal has better scoring differential, shooting and assist-to-turnover ratio.


1.5-Unit Play. Take #721 UCLA (-7.5) over VCU
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137.0 UCLA vs. VCU
You want to talk about disrespected – how about the team that’s made three straight Final Fours and coming one game short of another piece of the Pac-10 title getting a No. 6 seed! That’s ridiculous! And what’s worse, Ben Howland and his team knows all about it. Howland’s numbers when he has extra time to prepare are so ridiculous that I’m not even going to state them here. This team is way underseeded and they are playing a big public underdog. Everyone loves VCU for what it did to Duke a few years ago and they know all about Eric Maynor. But that was a soft Blue Devils team and there is nothing soft about this Bruins club. They are known for their rugged defense and who do you think they are going to be keying on? And what is VCU going to do when Darren Collison, one of the most accomplished point guards in college over the last 30 years, locks him up? UCLA has the size inside to really pound VCU on the boards and on the interior. Further, teams off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are notoriously poor performers in the first round. Add on top of that the fact that VCU was not great on the road in the nonconference portion of the schedule and the fact that UCLA has absolutely destroyed some opponents this year – 16 wins of 15 or more points – and I think that the Bruins can take care of business.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #723 Cal-Northridge (+20.5) over Memphis

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 132.0 Cal-Northridge vs. Memphis
This is a total system play. The other thing that I like is that Memphis is so “underrated” and “disrespected” by the selection committee and the general public that they are overrated and given too much respect. This team showed at home against Tulane in the conference tournament that they have a hard time getting up for weaker opponents that they know they are better than. Especially earlier in the day. It’s 11:30 a.m. local time. You think Memphis is going to have it’s game face on? I don’t. Throw on the fact that this game is the only one on today’s card where the public is banging one team at more than 75 percent action and we’re in business.

No. 2 seeds favored by more than 18 points are just 16-25-1 ATS in their last 42 games, and if that favorite is coming off back-to-back ATS wins they are just 53-90 ATS. Playing against No. 2 seeds that covered the spread in their last game by more than 10 points is a solid 10-5-1 ATS angle and add on top of that the fact that No. 2 seeds have been the biggest ATS underachievers, especially in Round 1, over the last 10 years and we have ourselves a play. Just close your eyes and hope for the best! It’s not going to be pretty, but the numbers suggest that we’re in a decent spot.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #707 Binghamton (+22) over Duke
No. 2 seeds have been one of the weakest ATS seeds in the tournament over the last 10 years so it behooves us to play against them almost blindly. Binghamton features a lot of transfers from other larger schools and you know that they will be way, way up for this game to get a crack at the Blue Devils. Duke hasn’t covered a first round game in several seasons and could be due for a slight letdown after their sweet ACC Tournament run. No. 2 seeds favored by 18 or more points are just 16-25-1 ATS over the last several years. And I understand that no one is going to confuse Binghamton for an ACC school. But routs of Maryland and Virginia near the end of January were the only wins of 20 or more points for this Duke team since the first of the year. This club won’t have the benefit of the Cameron Crazies. And after their weak showings in the first rounds of the last two tournaments we have to fade the Blue Devils on principle until they prove that they will cover these fat lines.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #711 Radford (+25.5) over North Carolina
I definitely hate to mess with North Carolina. But count me amongst those that think the absence of Ty Lawson is having as much of a mental effect on the Heels as it is a physical one. They simply weren’t very good in the ACC Tournament without him and Lawson will be on the bench today as well. Without their leader the Tar Heels lose some of their quick-strike capabilities, especially after made baskets by the opponents. Radford is a team that is used to scoring points. They are one of the higher scoring teams in Div. I. So they aren’t going to slow down on offense even as the game gets more and more out of reach. They’ve scored 80 or more points in six of their last seven games and It’s not as if the Tar Heels are a very defensive-minded club. Radford has some size and they have some experience playing together. The Heels really stopped beating teams by 30 points or so in mid-December, even though it took the oddsmakers months to catch up. And that was with Lawson. I see no shame in a solid 21-point win for the Tar Heels and that’s a win-win for all involved.

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa AND Take #737 Akron (+18) over Gonzaga

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #721 UCLA (-2.5) over VCU AND Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 124.5 Purdue vs. Northern Iowa

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Steven Budin-CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK

25 DIME



GONZAGA