4-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Oscarxena Sports:

520 UTEP -9 -1.09 (3 Unit Play)-In the second game of this best of three series I will once again go with the home team and make a wager on the Miners tonight. UTEP lost the first game after making a valiant comeback from a 21 point second half deficit before falling 75-69. In that game a couple of things drew my attention and that is that UTEP had trouble with OSU's 1-3-1 zone and committed 13 turnovers in the game but they only committed four of those in the second half so they obviously adjusted to the defense. Also UTEP is one of the top teams in the country getting to the FT line as on the year they average 27 attempts per game and in the first game they only attempted 9 FT's. I believe with the home court advantage and the home crowd behind them they will take better care of the ball tonight and also get some easy points at the FT line as well. You saw last night how some teams like San Diego State and Notre Dame who have been playing at home all month struggled on the road and those games were at a neutral court so imagine what the Beavers will be in for tonight as they travel for the first time since taking on USC at their home court on March 7th. Oregon State was only 4-10 SU this year in road games while UTEP was 12-4 SU on their home court. UTEP is 11-4 ATS this year after a non-conference game and in a strange trend Oregon State is 4-13 ATS since 1997 when playing a game on Wednesday. I think all the trends coupled with the intangibles make UTEP a great bet tonight. I almost made this a 4* but I will go with a 3* due to they must cover by double digits here but I do think they will.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Adam Meyer
[Wednesday, April 1, 2009 at 10:00 PM]

Utep (-8.5 Points) vs. Oregon State

Today's selections are information based and not analysis-driven.

Play: Utep (-8.5 Points)




[ NBA ]

Adam Meyer
[Wednesday, April 1, 2009 at 7:35 PM]

Boston Celtics (-8 Points) vs. Charlotte Bobcats

Today's selections are information based and not analysis-driven.

Play: Boston Celtics (-8 Points)



[Wednesday, April 1, 2009 at 10:05 PM]

Houston Rockets (+2 Points) vs. Phoenix Suns

Today's selections are information based and not analysis-driven.

Play: Houston Rockets (+2 Points)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Coglye

12* atl/buff over
8* nj/pit under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Indian cowboy

5 Unit Play. Take UTEP -9 over Oregon State (Wednesday @ 10pm est). We cashed on a nice Under yesterday in the NIT with Penn State vs. Notre Dame. For today's selection, I think we have an edge in the CBI game today. We rolled with a similar 5* in the total between Richmond/Charleston in the cbi which worked well for us and we look to do the same here. For starters, UTEP is very good at getting revenge against teams they had previously lost to. This is the Game 2 of the CBI Championship of course. Game 1 ended with Oregon State winning 75-69. I've made no secret that I like Oregon State and their coach as I beileve he is incredibly talented and unique. This guy was once a leading financial analyst, turned Brown University Head Coach, then became Oregon State's head coach, and also happens to be the brother in-law for Barack Obama. He is a talented coach and in other fields as well. UTEP will have a decent sized crowd on hand in this game, this is the only game going on in the nation for college basketball as the CBI Championship takes center stage once again and in UTEP's fairness, they were screwed a bit at Oregon State. After all, for a team that lost by 6 points, UTEP only shot 9 free throws (made 8/9 = 88.9%). Oregon State attempted 26 free throws (made 15/26 = 57.7%). UTEP is a 72% FT shooting team and Oregon State is a about 65% on the year. UTEP is the same team that beat UAB at home 70-52 and got revenge from an earlier season loss, this is the same team that beat Texas Tech at home by 18, St. Mary's on neutral floor by 13 and New Mexico on the road by 13. Oregon State struggles against high scoring teams on the road as they are not able to control the pace anymore like they do at home and I think this will hurt them in this contest. The only reason why this team did not break 70 points in Oregon State was the questionable "reffing". This team scored 79 at Nevada when they won outright, 75 against Northeastern and 81 against Richmond. I expect UTEP to have at least 20 free throw attempts in this game (compared to just 9 last game), I expect UTEP to shoot better frome the field and better than 5-18 (27.8%) from 3 point land on their hoem court, while I expect Oregon State to shoot 5-10 less free throws, shoot much worse from the field than the (60.5%) they shot at home and 8-15 (53.3%) fromt 3 point land they shot as well. In short, there are several factors that work in favor of UTEP today including revenge, better FG %, better 3 point %, more free throws at the line, a higher scoring and pace to the game, the home crowd, while Oregon State shoots worse in FG%, 3 point % and has fewer attempts from the line. THere is no guarantee in sports wagering, but this is a solid wager as any as Oregon State lost 69-79 to an Oregon team that plays at a higher pace and who is ranked top 180 - UTEP is ranked top 80. The Beavers are a Road Underdog to a tune of 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a Dog of 7 to 12 Points and the Miners are 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points.

4 Unit Play. Take Over 203.5 between Washington Wizards @ Memphis Grizzleis (Wednesday @ 8pm est) (Do some shopping on this line as I see some 203 and even a 202.5 out there, I will keep it as 203.5 for record purposes though). Another winner on the NBA Hardwood for us as we are 5-1 over the last 6 days for 5 of 6 winning days. For today's selection, let's take the Over in Memphis. If you are looking for some good ML plays, take a good look at the Heat as they should be game today or the Raptors who have been surging winning 4 in a row lately (we have rode them twice) as they are catching 10 points in Orlando. As per this over, the last time these two teams met, Memphis won 113-97 on the road as it totaled 210. The total for that game was set at 192. The oddsmakers quickly adjusted that total to 203.5 for this game. I think Washington will remember that loss and will be very game today. Remember, this team is down to its bare minimm in athletes as everyone is banged up from Dixon, to Songaila, James, Haywood, Arenas, Stevenson and Etan Thomas. Heck, this team is running Andre Blatche as its Center for the love of God as all the big men are hurt. In short, this team has to rely on its perimeter shooting if it has any shot, and I like the fact that Butler and Jamison are putting up a ton of shots here. Remember, this didn't stop the Wiz from scoring 115 at Indiana just the other day and short handed or not, with revenge, a ton of perimeter shots, I like the Wiz scoring 100 points here. Not to be out done, the Grizzlies have gone over the last 4 games at home as the game against Portland totaled (195) and I certainly believe a team like Washington who plays much less defense and looking for revenge, accounts for the additional 9 points here as an active dog. We have a nice cross current here as the over is 5-0 for the Wiz as a Small Underdog and the Over is 8-2 for the Grizz as a Small home Favorite.
Good luck,

Indian Cowboy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Stephen Nover

Toronto +10

Both teams are playing well. But I'll take this many points with the Raptors in this situation.

Orlando is off a satisfying road victory on Monday against in-state rival Miami. The Magic host the Cavaliers on Friday. That's the game they are thinking about not this one.

The Raptors are healthy. That makes them dangerous because they have talent with Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon and Shawn Marion.

Toronto has won and covered its last four games, all at home. Can the Raptors keep it going on the road?

They are making a late push to entice free agent to be Bosh to stay in Toronto. The Raptors don't play again until Saturday. They should be able to ride their momentum with their talent, energy and catching Orlando in a look-ahead spot.


Houston at Phoenix Over 223

The Suns weren't playing any defense when they still had a chance for the playoffs.

Now that they're four games out of the final playoff spot with eight games left they really aren't going to play any defense.

Unless you consider giving up 126 points to Sacramento, like they did in their last game, playing defense.

I sure don't. The Suns will score, though. They lead the NBA in offense averaging 109 points.

The key question is how many points can the Rockets put up? They beat the Suns, 116-112, at home on March 6.

Based on offensive styles and Phoenix's utter disregard for defense, look for each team to produce at least 112 points.

Yao Ming and Shaquille O'Neal bring out the best in each other. They'll be thinking offense all the way.

The Rockets are averaging 103.7 points and shooting 49.4 percent from the floor since trading Rafer Alston and making Aaron Brooks their starting point guard 20 games ago. Before then, the Rockets were averaging 96.5 points and shooting 44.3 percent from the field.

The Rockets have become more up-tempo with Brooks at the point. They are averaging 10.6 fast-break points compared to 8.5 points when Alston ran the point.


Washington +3

The Wizards are more dangerous with Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler in the lineup along with Antawn Jamison.

The Wizards have extra motivation for this matchup. Memphis defeated the Wizards, 113-97, at Washington in early February. The Grizzlies' O.J. Mayo made an uncontested dunk shot at the buzzer when the Wizards thought the Grizzlies were just running out the clock with such a big lead.

The Wizards felt disrespected. Washington coach Ed Tapscott also said that game was the Wizards' worst effort.

The Wizards will be up for this game. They catch Memphis returning after a four-game road trip, the last three of which have been on the West Coast. The Grizzlies beat Golden State on Monday night in their last game.

The first home game back from a long trip can often prove tricky, especially for a team as young as the Grizzlies. The start three rookies, a second-year player and third-year man Rudy Gay. The Grizzlies have lost their past six home contests, including games to lowly Sacramento and Oklahoma City.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

vegas-runner | NBA Sides

triple-dime bet506 NJN -1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 505 DET
Analysis: *** NBA 3* GAME of the WEEK ***

vegas-runner | NBA Total

double-dime bet512 DAL / 511 MIA Under 197.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** NBA 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
vegas-runner | CBB Total

double-dime bet520 UTEP / 519 Oregon St. Under 134.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: ** NCAABB CBI TOP 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

NSA

CBB 20* Texas El Paso -9
CBB 10* Oregon St @ Texas El Paso UNDER 134.5
NBA 10* Charlotte +9.5
NBA 10* Orlando -10
NBA 10* LA Lakers -6.5
NBA 10* Houston +1 free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

John Ryan

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Buffalo as they travel to face Atlanta. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 33-8 mark for 81% winners making 28.3 units since 1996. Play on road teams against the money line after 6 or more consecutive overs and is a quick starting team outscoring opponents by 0.2+ goals/game in first period. Atlanta is 6-24 against the money line (-14.5 Units) against good passing teams averaging 5 or more assists per game this season. Buffalo is 12-3 against the money line (+9.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in a win over a division rival since 1996. Take Buffalo.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Fairway Jay

4 units Nets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Anthony Redd

25 Dime Oregon State + 9
5 Dime Raptors + 9.5
5 Dime Bobcats + 9
5 Dime Pistons + 1.5
5 Dime Lakers - 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Doc

5-Unit Play #503 Take Charlotte +8 ½ Over Boston (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
Yes, the Bobcats got a huge win over the Lakers last night and this should be a letdown spot, right? Wrong. This Bobcats team can smell the No. 8 playoff spot and are now one game behind the Bulls for that final position. This team is basically already in the playoffs and every night is a must win. That is a great sign for Bobcats backers tonight as this team has had the MO of playing hard all season long and that is why they went from a horrible early-season record to being in the playoff hunt. Plus, this team isn’t going to sit there and celebrate a win over the Lakers like they just won the NBA Finals, this team has actually now swept the Lakers this season and has wins against plenty of strong playoff clubs, including these Celtics. The C’s will be without Kevin Garnett tonight and are just 5-13 ATS without him this season. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight, Boston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, the Bobcats have covered six of the last seven meetings including both this season and the underdog is 12-0 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

3-Unit Play #507 Take LA Lakers -6 ½ Over Milwaukee (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
After two tough losses to playoff-caliber teams we think the Lakers flex their muscle tonight and have a huge game against the Bucks. Milwaukee got a big win last time out over the hapless Nets but in their five previous games, most against the league’s elite (like the Lakers), the Bucks lost all five games by an average of 16 points and their only single-digit loss was to the Raptors, a team not in the playoff hunt. That is the sign of a team that has given up on the season. The Lakers played very motivated teams the last two nights but we think tonight that they will be the motivated team in an attempt to avoid a three-game losing streak and also end the road trip on a positive note. Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall and this is one of the rare cases where we feel there is actually some value on a Lakers side.

3-Unit Play #511 Take Miami +5 ½ Over Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
The road team has actually covered six straight meetings in this series (with one push) and we love getting this many points tonight with a solid Miami club against a very inconsistent Dallas team. Miami has a lot to play for as they are the No. 5 seed in the East as it stands now but Philly is just a half game behind them. If they fall to the No. 6 seed that sets up a first round series against Boston or Orlando instead of Atlanta, their projected opponent as the No. 5. That’s a big difference and they know it. If you look at the Mavs recent wins and losses, they have notched wins over teams out of the playoff hunt while they have lost all recent games to playoff clubs. We think that Miami has a very good chance for the straight up win here but this should be a close game and we think the underdog has the value tonight.

4-Unit Play #514 Take Phoenix -1 ½ Over Houston (10 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
Backing another team with major motivation tonight as every game for the Suns from here on out is basically a playoff game as they are barely alive in the race for the last spot in the West. Phoenix is a very good home team (24-13) while the Rockets are just mediocre on the road (18-18). The Suns have lost three straight but all have come on the road. Before that they had won six straight, five of which were at home and three of which were against playoff clubs. Houston has been playing well but they have had a home-heavy schedule lately. The Suns have owned this series against the number, cashing in 10 of the last 13 meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

sebass
20* BUFF,COLORADO
20* NETS,CHARLOTTE
50*PHONIX,MEMPHIS,SACRAMENTO
100* STEAM PLAY UTEP

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

The real animal

Pick title: 2* Milwaukee 'UNDER' 202 1/2
Pick Date: 04/01/2009
Pick description:
Hmm. Think Lamar Odom is letting the cat out of the bag tonight? Here's his comment following last night's 94-84 loss at Charlotte: "How many days has this team been on the road?" he said. "We expect low-scoring games, especially the 12th day on the road. Got to find a way to win them." Tonight the very unrested Lakers finish a 7-game road trip at Milwaukee. They shot 35 percent at Atlanta on Sunday and 39 percent last night in Charlotte. Kobe was 11-of-25 and appears gassed plus physically drained. The Laker reserves were 5-of-22 last night. The 'UNDER' is 13-3 in the last 16 Laker games. They are just counting the days until the playoffs trailing Cleveland now by three games for the best record. Considering the Cavaliers refuse to lose, especially at home, the task of making up those three games in about two weeks seems impossible. Milwaukee has scored in the 80's in 5/8 games recently. They recently held Boston to 77 points in Wisconsin and in their last game limited New Jersey to just 78 on the road. Since going way 'OVER' against the Knicks on March 10th (Animal 5*) this team is 5-0 'UNDER' at home (go figure it). After a 117-109 shootout in the first game of this seven-game road trip, the Lakers have outscored their last five opponents on this trek by a 92-88 verdict (180 average). Milwaukee is 6-2 'UNDER' in their last eight as an underdog. A slight lean to the Bucks here catching points, but the preferred choice is the 'UNDER'.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

Drew Gordon 200*.....
Utep

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-1-09

EZ Winners

3* UTEP Miners -9