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Re: 5-4-09
ATS Lock
Lakers
ATS Financial
Celtics
ATS Lock
Lakers
ATS Financial
Celtics
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Re: 5-4-09
MTi Sports
Houston at LA Lakers
Play: Under 193.5
In their last two games of the Utah series, Kobe Bryant was 16-of-24 for 38 points and 10-of-21 for 31 points. In the playoffs, these stats point to the UNDER. The Lakers are 0-9 OU (-18.2 ppg) during the playoffs after two wins in which Kobe Bryant took more than 20 shots in each and 0-5 OU (-19.8 ppg) at home when Kobe scored at least 30 points the last two games. In their series-clinching win over the Jazz, Lamar Odom was a terrific 10-of-15 from the field and scored 26 points. This rarely occurring situation points strongly to the UNDER, as LA is 0-4 OU after a win at home in which Lamar Odom shot better than 66% from the field, staying under by an average of 33.1 ppg.LA has beaten the Rockets in each match-up this season, covering all four games. The Rockets shot 53% and 51% in their two home games vs LA, but shot only 37 and 42% on the road. Houston is 0-6 OU (-14.0 ppg) on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss as a dog, 0-6 OU (-12.0 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss in which Luis Scola had more turnovers than assists and 0-7 OU (-12.5 ppg) after losing the previous matchup in which Yao Ming was not the Rockets' high scorer.In Houston’s series-clinching win over the Blazers, they held Portland to 76 points while the Refs let them play. Portland made only 12 free throws and the Rockets made 11. Yao Ming was a very nice 8-of-16 from the floor but Ron Artest led the Rockets with 27 points. Houston is 0-6 OU as a dog after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line and 0-6 OU (-13.2 ppg) during the playoffs and after a win at home in which Yao Ming was NOT the Rockets' high scorer. If the Rockets are going to compete in this series, they are not going to be able to do it with offense, it has to be on the defensive side of the floor. Take the UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA LAKERS 96 Houston 87Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
NSA's Selection
NBA Orlando @ Boston 8:05 PM EST 20* Boston -2.5
MLB Minnesota @ Detroit 7:05 PM EST 20* Detroit -130
NBA Houston @ LA Lakers 10:35 PM EST 10* Lakers -8.5
MLB Boston @ NY Yankees 7:05 PM EST 10* Yankees -115
MLB Texas @ Seattle 10:10 PM EST 10* Seattle -145
MLB White Sox @ Kansas City 8:10 PM EST 10* White Sox +170Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
FRANK PATRON.
FIRST EVER 50000 UNIT MUST WIN LOCK
LA LAKERS -8
This will not ever be a game. The Lakers have blown this team out at home in the prior two games they played against them plus they won and covered all 4 games in the regular season. They are rested healthy and damn near unbeatable at home and if Houston could lose Game 5 at Portland by 11 they have no shot at staying with LA on the road.Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
Trace Adams
1500* - Boston Celtics, 500*
Texas-Seattle UNDER (Millwood vs. Hernandez)
A case can be made for the Celts having their guard down a little after their grueling 7-game set against the Bulls, but Boston also knows they let the home court slip away in Game 1 in the last series, and they saw just how hard it was to put Chicago away after losing that contest, so I doubt the C's will suffer a letdown in this spot.
Orlando has been a problem for the Celtics, as the Magic have won the last pair of series meetings, and are a solid 5-5 straight up the last 10 meetings between the teams. The problem is, most of the damage has been done at home, and Orlando is on the road for this baby.
The host in the series is a lucrative 21-9 against the spread the last 30 meetings, and with this line being so low, all we pretty much need to do is win the game, and the cover almost has to come with the win.
I like the "fatigued" Celtics to come out strong in this spot.
Lay the small home wood.
1500? - Boston Celtics
On the diamond, I am not seeing very many runs on the Safeco Field scoreboard this Monday night.
Kevin Millwood, and Felix Hernandez are right up there for the early season ERA lead in the junior circut.
Millwood comes in at 2-2 with a 2.13 ERA, while Hernandez is 4-0 with a 2.38 season ERA.
Both pitchers sport poor numbers against the other's team, but I expect that to change tonight, as these 2 hurlers hunker down, and give us a pitcher's duel on a Monday night in King County.
The fans will be eating their garlic fries, and looking up at goose eggs on the scoreboard for the better part of these 9 innings.
Take the UNDER.
500? - Texas-Seattle UNDER the total (Millwood vs. Hernandez)
??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup
50 Dime ---- CELTICS
20 Dime ---- CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (List Sanchez and Dempster or this play is void)
BOSTON CELTICS --- Raise your hand if you've heard one of the following sentences in the last 24 hours: "The Celtics are going to be physically and emotionally exhausted" OR "Boston has no chance to get past the second round without Garnett" OR "Dwight Howard is itching to get back on the floor after his one-game suspension" OR "Boston doesn't have the beef inside to match up with Howard." My guess is that you've heard at least one of those comments in the last day, if not all of them. To be honest, I don't believe a single one of those comments, and today I'm going to dispel those thoughts in order to prove my case that the Celtics will win tonight's game by close to double digits.
"The Celtics are going to be physically and emotionally exhausted" --- Please!! These guys are finely tuned athletes who went through a grueling 7-game series with the Hawks in last year's first round, but if memory serves me correctly, they did just fine in the second round. Yes, I know they had Garnett last year, but to think that this team is going to be exhausted to play basketball... a game they are paid millions to play... is ridiculous and a slap in their face, not to mention enough motivation to come out and dominate tonight.
"Boston has no chance to get past the second round without Garnett" --- I can see where these comments are coming from because Garnett IS THAT GOOD, but to say they have no chance is only more motivation for the "other role players" to step up their game. Though the Celtics didn't win the only game vs. Orlando that Garnett missed, the game was closer than many thought and if Glen "Big Baby" Davis hadn't gotten into early foul trouble, the outcome could have been completely different.
"Dwight Howard is itching to get back on the floor after his one-game suspension" --- Are you kidding me? If anything, it's going to make him play softer... at least in Game 1. This guy knows that the officials are going to be watching him like a hawk, so he's going to be extra cautious tonight, hoping to take the attention away from him. Orlando HC Stan Van Gundy said it best when he told the media "We can survive one game without Howard, but we can't survive a series without him." I'm not saying Howard won't be a factor tonight, but he's not going to be his dominating self in this game... mark my words.
"Boston doesn't have the beef inside to match up with Howard." --- Okay, I admit the loss of Leon Powe hurts, but let's not discount what Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins are capable of... not to mention the recent emergence of Mikki Moore. No, Moore is not a scorer, but his 7-foot presence on the floor alone will cause Howard to alter some of his shots, not to mention the fact he's good for six hard fouls. Moore did a nice job on Brad Miller and Joakim Noah in Game 7 of the Bulls/Celtics series, which leads me to believe he's gaining more confidence the longer Boston sticks around.
Guys, the Celtics have lost just seven times at home ALL SEASON, and that's why the regular season was so important. When you play in a series like this, home court can really come into play and the Celtics clearly play better at home than they do on the road. The home team is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 H2H meetings while the Magic have suffered recently vs. teams from the Atlantic division, failing to cover the number in 10 of their last 12. Without Jameer Nelson running the show at point guard, Orlando must get significant production from Rafer Alston, and I'm just not sure he's ready for this type of atmosphere vs. the defending champs. Orlando comes in with "awe" over the fact they made the second round of the playoffs while Boston knows exactly what to expect. All we're asking the Celtics to do tonight is win the game by a bucket or more... something they should easily be able to do. Take the Celtics minus the small number as your top play of the day.
CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE --- Though the early numbers might not back me up, I still think the Cubs are going to win the NL Central and be one of the teams to contend for the NL pennant. And a big reason they're going to get there is their pitching staff.
Ryan Dempster takes the hill tonight for the Cubbies, sporting a very high 5.40 ERA in five starts, but amazingly his W/L record is just 1-1. Why? Well, partially because his team scores an average of 4 runs per game in his starts, including a 7-run showing the last time he pitched at home. Dempster has just one home start in five games this year, and that game resulted in a 7-5 Cubs win over a much better team than he'll face tonight.
The Giants are a dismal 2-7 on the road to start the season, and they aren't a team that's known for finishing strong. They win games by getting the early lead (usually at home) and then using solid bullpen performances to keep it. So far, the Cubs bats are better at home than on the road and I see Chicago jumping out to an early lead, forcing the Giants into early panic mode.
Jonathan Sanchez has been very good so far the Giants, but I need to see more. He's started three times this year and made one relief appearance, and if you've been with me for an extended period of time, you know how much I hate to see pitchers go back and forth from starter to middle reliever. Part of the reason, in my opinion, his ERA is so low is the fact he has just one start on the road... and it was awful. Since then he's made two masterful starts at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. His first start of the season, in San Diego, was one to forget, as he allowed 4 hits (two of those HRs) and five earned runs in just over four innings of work, suffering a 6-3 loss to the Padres.
Control is also another issue for Sanchez, walking 12 batters in just three starts. I can promise you that if he begins to struggle with his control tonight, the Cubs will tatoo him all over the field and make him pay for those mistakes. Dating back to last season, the Giants are just 3-12 in Sanchez's last 15 starts and just 2-9 in his starts as an underdog. Chicago, meanwhile, is 18-5 in Dempster's last 23 home starts and 16-5 in his last 21 home starts as the favorite.
Bottom line: the Cubs are just a better baseball team and will prove it tonight in Game 1 of this series. It's all Cubbies tonight boys.Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
Andre Gomes
NBA Sides
703 HOU 8.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 704 LAL
If there is one game that the Rockets may steal it on the road this is 'the game'. The Lakers are happy to face the Rockets in the second round as they avoided the Blazers and with a 4-0 mark in the regular season the public expect a huge blown out for the Lakers.
However I don't think in the same way. In fact I feel that the Lakers aren't prepared for this game as the Rockets will bring the toughness and aggressiveness that the Jazz didn't present vs. Lakers in the first round. It was too easy for the Lakers that they blew some huge leads during the games, they didn't play hard on the defensive end and they didn't keep the level during the 48 minutes?.but still they ease past the Jazz! Note that the real game that the Jazz showed some toughness, the Lakers ended losing the game!
The Rockets hold the young Blazers to 83, 88, 88 and 76 points in the last 4 games and I remember that Portland was one of the most effective offensive teams during the regular season. It's a fact that the Lakers swept the Rockets 4-0 in the regular season but we can't forget some details: Shane Battier didn't play in one of the losses and Ron Artest misses another. Also McGrady played in the first but shot just 1-11 from the field for three and if we discount the first game (rout win) the Lakers beat Houston by an average of 7.7 points a game!
The Lakers are naturally the best team but the Rockets have some weapons that can make some damage to them. Aaron Brooks is coming from a huge series vs. Portland and he quicker than Derek Fisher. Yao Ming will matchup against the struggling Andrew Bynum and we must not forget the duo Artest/Battier that will try to limit Kobe Bryant. The Rockets can make a surprise tonight like they did in Portland in game 1, this game will be more close than most people think and I'm taking them tonightComment
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Re: 5-4-09
Scott Delaney
Monday winners: 15 DIME OVER Magic/Celtics - One goal for Orlando in what could be the most crucial game of this series: run Boston out of its own building. And while the Magic will be pressing the offenisve buttons and pushing the up-tempo, the Celtics will be 100 percent ready to respond after having to do so against the Bulls.
The Magic will be looking to take advantage with the high-percentage shots in the paint with a dominating frontline that easily will best Boston's. For the Celtics, it will be the quick lineup and perimeter shooting of Ray Allen and Paul Pierce to keep the points tallying up.
I know there are a plethora of under trends, particularly regarding the Magic, but the smart thing for them is, as mentioned, run the Celtics ragged. Orlando will be in a mindset it can overwhelm the C's after that treacherous series with the Bulls. But Boston won't mind a high-scoring game one bit.
The high number is on a 7-3 run the last 10 times these two have met in Boston, while the over with Boston is on runs of 5-0 versus the Southeast, 5-0 when it plays on one day's rest, 17-4 when it's installed as the favorite and 21-8 in its last 29 overall.
This first game will be a high one, so play it over.
5 DIME ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (WITH Lohse and Blanton) - I was taking the Cardinals when Adam Wainwright was tabbed as the starter. I love our chances even more with Kyle Lohse toeing the slab, especially against Philly right-hander Joe Blanton, who has started four games and is still looking for his first victory of the season.
Blanton was ineffective in his last start, against the Nationals, giving up eight hits and six earned runs over 4-1/3 innings. The misfiring northpaw fired 90 pitches and while 51 for strikes, he gave up three home runs. His ERA jumped from 7.31 to 8.41, and the fact is his command hasn't been consistent as evidenced by the pitches he is leaving up in the zone.
As for Lohse, he was scratched from his scheduled start yesterday, even before the game was canceled due to rain. Tonight he comes in off six brilliant, shutout innings against Atlanta last Tuesday. I am banking the right-hander to pitch much better this time around, since the Braves were stifled while he was nursing a sore knee and a stomach bug. He was rock solid early in 2009, and now he faces a team he pitched very well against last season, winning both his starts and giving up just one run over 12 frames. Play the Redbirds tonight, as we roll with a pitching mismatch and a red-hot team that has won three of four and seven of 10.Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
Stephen Nover
Orlando at Boston
Play: Under 188.5
Orlando came into the playoffs averaging 88.2 points in its last seven regular-season games.If you discount the Magic's last game, they averaged 92.6 points in their series against the 76ers. That's against a weak perimeter defense. Even without Kevin Garnett, Boston has a much stronger defense than Philadelphia.The Magic will be relying on several reserves, who I do not have a high opinion on. They need Dwight Howard to have a monster scoring game, but he's a terrible free throw shooter and will be guarded by Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis.The Celtics held Orlando to an average of 84.5 points in their four regular-season meetings. Hedo Turkoglu shot 35 percent from the floor and point guard Rafer Alston was even worse, shooting 33 percent.The Magic should have their legs, having last played on Thursday. But their shooting touch will be rusty.This is a statement game and both teams will turn up the defensive intensity.
MLB
Milwaukee BrewersComment
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Re: 5-4-09
Lee Kostroski
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have only lost consecutive games once this season and at 17-8 St. Louis has the second best record in the NL. The Cardinals are 10-3 at home this season and 11-5 against right-handed starters. In home games this season the Cardinals own a .349 team average against right-handed pitching and through 25 games St. Louis has out-scored opponents by 36 runs. St. Louis has also received drastically superior pitching to the Phillies and the strong road record for Philadelphia is a bit misleading given the schedule at this point in the year.
Not so long ago Kyle Lohse had trouble finding a team to sign him but he has been one of the top pitchers in the National League so far this season, coming off a great year with St. Louis last year. Lohse briefly pitched for the Phillies in 2007 and he beat his former team both times he faced them last season. Lohse has allowed just seven earned runs through five starts this season and at home he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts. The St. Louis bullpen has taken a bit of time to sort out but is getting good results right now as opponents are hitting just .230 against Cardinal relievers.
Joe Blanton has not exactly delivered great results since coming over from Philadelphia. His 4-0 record with the Phillies last season was very misleading as he had very mediocre numbers. Blanton can eat up innings but he has been very hittable, a dangerous situation against one of the top hitting teams in baseball. Opposing hitters are hitting .351 against Blanton this season which has led to his 8.41 ERA and he has allowed six home runs in just 20 innings. The Philadelphia bullpen has not been as effective as it was in last year’s championship run and this is a favorable situation for the Cardinals, coming at a very reasonable price given how tough this stadium has been on opposing teams.Comment
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Re: 5-4-09
SportsOddsAndPicks
NBA Playoff Second Round Series Best Bet (4-1 in first round)
BOSTON (-115) over Orlando
Many observers are saying that the Celtics near-upset loss to the Bulls in Round 1 exposed the defending champs, but we think just the opposite. While the C’s did struggle at times against the Bulls, they also saw a couple of their young players – most notably Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rajon Rondo – step to the forefront and prove they can play big roles in their team’s success.
Simply put, we like how the Celtics match up against the Magic. Orlando’s offense is basically just four outside shooters and Dwight Howard. We expect the Celtics’ perimeter defense to hold the Orlando shooters down and Perkins to play smart enough where he stays out of foul trouble and contain Howard, who is still shaky at best from the free throw line. When the Celtics have the ball, look for Ray Allen to have another huge series with the likes of JJ Reddick and Courtney Lee (who will miss Game 1 with a fractured sinus) trying to cover him. And in the end we expect Paul Pierce to will his team to a victory in this series with a big offensive output as well as a defensive shutdown of Hedo Turkoglu, just like he did last year in the finals against Kobe Bryant. The Celts still have more heart and talent than Orlando -- even with Kevin Garnett on the sidelines wearing a $5,000 suit -- and they also own home court advantage.Comment
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