6-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-7-09

Bob Valentino

Sunday's 30 Dime NBA Finals winner ...
30 DIME -- Magic-Lakers OVER the total



IMPORTANT NOTE: This is a play on the total for Game 2. We're taking it OVER the posted number.



As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-7-09

Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- Magic - Lakers OVER

10 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (With Halladay as listed pitcher)

MAGIC-LAKERS OVER --- Forget what you saw in Game 1 (a 100-75 Lakers win), this game is going over the total as I expect the Orlando Magic to push the Lakers all the way through the fourth quarter. Two things happened in the last game that caused it to stay under the number. First, the Magic shot like they hadn't ever seen a basket before in their lives. 23 of 77 is less than 30% from the field. Yeah, did you realize that?? The Magic shot less than 30% from the field for the entire game and I guarantee you that won't happen again tonight. Second, the Lakers took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter or they could have easily posted between 110 and 115 points. They cruised into the final stanza with a comfortable lead and only scored 18 in the final 12 minutes. And like I said, with tonight's game expected to be a little more competitive, look for the Lakers to top the century mark again.

Back to Orlando. How quickly we forget what this team did to the Cleveland Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. Do you not remember them scoring over 100 points in 4 of the 6 games vs. Cleveland (and one of those games was a 99-point output)? Don't you remember what got the Cavs the best record in the NBA? DEFENSE. This was supposed to be the best defensive team in the NBA, but Orlando showed us that Cleveland's defense could be exploited with the right combo on offense. Tonight, the Magic put together the right combo again vs. the Lakers and score in triple digits.

As for the Lakers, I have no doubts they get to the century mark again themselves, having done it 7 straight post-season games dating back to the Denver series. And if you look at Orlando's defense, they play much better at home than they do on the road, so I'm not really worried about them slowing this Lakers' machine down much. It's business as usual for both offenses and I see the final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 111-105. Play the OVER.


TORONTO (-1 1/2 run line) (must list Halladay) --- Is there a better pitcher in the American League right now than Roy Halladay? The guy is 9-1 on the season with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 12 starts, and simply hasn't had any games where his control is a problem. He isn't walking batters and isn't really allowing opponents to put a string of base hits together, which continually puts his Blue Jays in a position to win. The Jays are 20-10 when playing at home this year and Halladay has a better career ERA and WHIP when pitching in front of the home crowd. Okay, sure, his last outing was definitely not his best, but you can't expect him to go out and pitch a shutout every outing, can you?

Halladay's career numbers vs. the Royals look like this: 13 starts, 93 innings, 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .234 opponent's batting average against. Folks, those are solid numbers and I see nothing that tells me he won't repeat another dominating performance this afternoon.

Kansas City counters with Kyle Davies, who has been roughed up in his last two outings. 9 ER in his last 11 innings of work, and let's not forget he's suffered four straight losse. His season ERA is over 5 and his walk total is absolutely absurd, including 6 free passes in over 5 innings of work vs. Tampa Bay in his last start. Davies is simply overmatched in this game and it's probably only going to take 5 runs for the Jays to get the cash vs. the run line. Play Toronto -1 1/2 as your best bet on the diamond today.