6-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

John Siu

Florida Marlins (West) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Janssen)

This price is almost a little too high but I'll lay the chalk with Barksdale behind the dish calling balls and strikes. The home team is on a 4-0 run with him behind the plate calling balls and strikes and may be just what the Jays need to end their 6 game losing run against the Marlins. West has pitched well in place of the injured Sanchez while the Jays haver struggled the last two games at the plate going 2-20 with RISP. The Blue Jays get to the young Marlins starter and back on track after last night's disappointing loss in easy fashion.

Toronto Blue Jays (-135) 10 Dime Early Interleague Winner

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

Dave M@linsky

Added

4* Rockies RL
4* #926 COLORADO Run Line -1.5 +120 over SEATTLE

We do not buy the line movement in this one, and now that the price has dropped into the -160’s, bringing with it the corresponding Run Line adjustment, it is time to get in play with the hottest team in the game right now, a pitcher at the top of his own personal form, and a completely rested bullpen going up against a weak opposing package.

The current 9-0 Colorado run has been real. The first eight of those wins came on the road, and they have compiled a +37 advantage in this process. Friday’s complete game from Ubaldo Jimenez to open this series refreshed all bullpen arms, and Jason Marquis is working better than we have seen him in many years, with his 4-1/2.23 over his last five starts keyed by a sparkling ratio of 67 ground ball outs vs. only 27 on the air. He does not face much of a challenge here against one of the weakest offenses in the game, which keeps his form right on track.

For the Seattle pitching staff this game can be an adventure. The starting nod goes to the struggling Brandon Morrow, who has worked to an awful 0-3/10.24 on the road this season, and Morrow is expected to be limited to about 60 pitches, even if he does find his good stuff for a change. After that it gets dicey. Ordinarily the first option in long relief is Miguel Batista, but he is unlikely to go after throwing 32 pitches over two full innings last night, with half of them missing the strike zone. That leaves few options to gut through a lot of innings, especially with Morrow himself not part of the bullpen corps, and it means plenty of opportunities for a hot team to break this one wide open.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

Wunderdog

Game: Washington at Tampa Bay (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

Anyway you look at this one, the numbers are pretty ugly for the Nationals. Their road futility has led them to a 94-176 mark in their last 270 games. This year they are 6-21. The news doesn't get better however, it gets worse. They are also 9-42 in their last 51 road games when facing a right handed starter. Overall they are now also 15-56 vs. a team with a winning record. To compound those problems they face a Tampa team that is now 76-36 in their last 112 at home and on a 13-4 run at home in their last 17. The Rays are 43-9 in their last 52 as a favorite from -150 to -200. Kind of makes these odds posted here look rather small to me so I'm riding the Rays in this one.
Game: Washington at Tampa Bay (6:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)

I pointed out in my moneyline writeup for this one all the huge tendencies for these teams. With 71%+ odds of winning combined we get a lot of value on the Rays at + odds on the run line. The Rays have now outscored their opponents by a 57-25 count in their last 10 home games. They won eight of them by an average margin of 52-17! They are averaging 5.9 runs per game at home and 6.0 vs. RHP while Washington is getting only 4.4 per game. Andy Sonnanstine has pitched to a 4.30 ERA at home while Zimmerman has posted a 6.85 road ERA. The bullpen difference: 3.77 ERA vs. 5.30 ERA. The Nats are just 11-24 to the run line vs. winning teams this season. I'll take the + odds on this one.
Game: San Diego at Los Angels Angels (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angels Angels -210 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.4)

The Angels will go with Joe Saunders against the Padres in this one. Saunders has had his ups and downs this season, but when he faces losing teams with weak lineups, he has excelled. Against good teams, Saunders has a 9.09 ERA. But against teams with a losing record this season, has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in seven starts and the Angels are 6-1 in those games! The Angels have out-scored the seven weak opponents in Saunders starts by 30-12. The Padres bring just a 9-21 road mark into this one, and are just 23-63 in their last 86 as a road dog, and just 1-10 in their last 11 interleague games as a road dog. They have laid the goose-egg in Geer's last six starts on the road. Too much value here to let pass by, and I'll go with the Angels in this one.
Game: San Diego at Los Angels Angels (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angels Angels -1.5 runs +100 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3)

If you look at Joe Saunders overall numbers they are fairly pedestrian, but when you break them down into what he has done vs. good teams (.500+), and poor teams (under .500), he becomes a Hall of Famer so far this season vs. the bad teams like San Diego. Saunders has made seven starts against poor teams, and is 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA, with the Angels winning the seven games by a 30-12 count, and 28-8 in the six wins. This means the opponent is getting 1.7 runs in all games, and just 1.25 in the wins. That means if the Angels can get to 3 runs here against a pitcher that has seen teams score 33 runs in his four road starts (over 8 per game), we have an easy winner. Going with the Angels on the runline at nice odds.

They are 8-0 +24 units the last two days. 140-132 -6.6 units for the season.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

Michael Cannon

Saturday's Plays

15 Dime ORIOLES (With Kawakami and Hill as listed pitchers)Take the Orioles for the home win over the Braves.I know it may seem puzzling to some, but I believe Rich Hill will have a tremendous bounce back start tonight after getting destroyed by Oakland in his last start. The left-hander couldnt get out of the first inning and allowed three runs while walking four batters.But Hill has enjoyed success against the Braves in his career, going 3-0 with a 0.94 ERA in four games. He has allowed just 17 hits and has 30 strikeouts in 28 2-3 innings over that span.Atlanta will counter with Kenshin Kawakami, who is 3-6 on the year with a 4.62 ERA. The right-hander seems snake bit right now and with Hills success against the Braves I wouldnt be surprised to see Atlanta stymied again tonight. Kawakami started the year off by getting rocked, then settled into a decent groove but cant get any run support. If he does get the support, the bullpen blows it for him.Too much bad karma right now surrounding him.Take the Orioles as they grab the home win.



5 Dime REDS (With Arroyo and Davies as listed pitchers)Take the Reds for the road win over the Royals.Kansas City, despite winning last night, is just in an awful funk right now. The Royals have gone 8-23 since May 7, with a team batting average of .233 and a 4.84 ERA in those 31 games.Kyle Davies will start and he is currently riding a career-high five-game losing streak. He has received just six total runs of support during that slide and that trend will probably continue tonight.The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo, who is 7-4 on the year despite a 5.00 ERA. The reason for his solid record obviously is the run support he gets, so look for the Reds bats to come through tonight against Davies.Take the Reds as they grab the road win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

Doc Sports

6-Unit Play Take #920 Philadelphia Phillies -110 over Boston Red Sox (7:05p.m.)

The Phillies are our IL Game Of The Year

3-Unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants -110 over Oakland A’s (10:05p.m.)

3-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels -140 over San Diego Padres (9:05p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

Craig Davis

Saturday's Lineup


20 Dime ---- PIRATES (Must list Duke as starting pitcher)



10 Dime ---- CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Harden as starting pitcher)



PITTSBURGH PIRATES (must list Duke) --- Coming in off a 3-1 loss to Detroit last night, the Pirates can ill-afford to continue their losing ways if they want to stay in contention in the NL Central division race. Yes, I realize it's too early to call this a "must win" game, but when the ace of your staff is on the hill, you need to take full advantage of it. The Pirates send Zach Duke to the hill in an attempt to quiet the Detroit bats tonight.



I'm aware of Duke's struggles in his last outing, but if you look at his numbers against Atlanta it wasn't really a surprise that he struggled. It also wasn't a surprise that the game was on the road, because if you compare his home numbers vs. his road numbers, you can clearly see he pitches better in front of the home fans. Duke's season ERA is a very respectable 3.07 while his WHIP is 1.20... but when you compare his home ERA (2.66) and his home WHIP (1.09) to his overall numbers, it's clear to see why I'm backing him tonight pitching at PNC Park. Duke's last four home starts consisted of three games in which he allowed just one earned run and the other, though not great, was still a decent outing in which he allowed four earned runs. Duke's numbers over his career are also better in night games as opposed to those played under the sun, posting a 5.00 ERA in the daytime vs. a 3.86 ERA at night... and we catch the Pirates playing a Saturday NIGHT game today.



Detroit counters with Armando Gallaraga, and although he was thought to be one of the Tigers' better starters this year, he hasn't quite lived up to the billing. Gallaraga comes in with a 5.07 ERA, including not having won a game since all the way back on April 26th. The Pirates are 15-12 playing at home despite an overall losing record, and with the knowledge that Duke is better at home, this one should be easy. Top play of the day on the Pittsburgh Pirates.





CHICAGO CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (must list Harden) --- Harden hasn't pitched a game since going on the DL with a lower back strain back on May 18th, so you might be wondering why I'm so confident backing a guy like this against a team that has proven they can hit the ball like Minnesota did yesterday. Well, simply put, I don't think he was hurt that badly and the rest will only help a guy who has had numerous injury issues over the past few years.



Let's also remember something about Harden... he pitched a few years in Oakland and has seen this Minnesota team four times in his short career... beating them once without losing a single game. Harden's career ERA vs. Minnesota is a stellar 2.13 while his WHIP is 1.11, so please don't look at his season ERA when judging how you think Harden will fare against the Twins today. Harden knows exactly how to pitch to American League teams and you'll be surprised when all is said and done how well he finishes this game.



The Cubs need this win badly right now and couldn't be asking for a better situational pitcher to be on the hill than Harden. The Cubs are 16-11 at home and after yesterday's setback, you can expect to come out and play some very good baseball today. My money is on the Cubs to win this game behind Harden, 6-2. Bonus play on the Cubs (and Harden) on the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-13-09

ASA's 7* INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR

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ASA's MLB HUGE INTERLEAGUE TOTAL - TOP GAME!

PLAY ON Under the Total, Detroit (Galarraga) vs. Pittsburgh (Duke), Saturday at 7:00 PM EST

Zach Duke has been extremely effective this season, featuring a 3.07 ERA on the season. At home that number drops to 2.66 with a 1.09 WHIP. Duke is coming off one his worst starts of the season but in each of the three other starts where Duke has allowed more than two runs he has bounced back with an eight-plus inning effort. Duke has allowed two or fewer earned runs while pitching more than six innings eight times this season. In over 85 innings this season Duke has allowed just 20 walks and the Pittsburgh bullpen has been very respectable in the past month, including a 3.06 ERA in the past ten games.

Armando Galarraga has not been able to match the success he had last season but he has now made three straight quality starts. Galarraga allowed just six runs in four interleague starts last season. The under is 5-2 in his last seven outings and the Detroit bullpen has been greatly improved this season after being a serious problem the past two years. The under is 19-6 in the last 25 Tigers games as the pitching has been very good and the offensive production has leveled off after a hot opening month of the season.

Over the last ten games the Tigers are batting just .234 overall and on the year Detroit is hitting just .233 against left-handed pitching in road games. Pittsburgh has scored four or fewer runs in 16 of the past 22 games and the offense has been depleted with the loss of Nate McLouth. PNC Park has a reputation as a high scoring field, but that simply has not been the case, averaging just 8.4 runs per game. The under is 15-11 in Pittsburgh home games and on the year the Pirates are allowing an average of only 4.3 runs per game.

Best of Luck, ASA!