7-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Karl Garrett

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - MILWAUKEE (Suppan over Wellemeyer)....10 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO (Sadowski over Volstad)
20 DIMER - MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Suppan over Wellemeyer)



The Cards shut out the Brewers last night 5-0, as the Redbirds lead in the Central grew to 2 games.



St. Louis has won 5 of 6, while Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 6.



Look for things to change tonight, as I don't see the Brew Crew getting skunked again tonight.



Jeff Suppan may be just 1-5 at home this year, but Todd Wellemeyer's season ERA is over 5, so to me the starters appear to be a wash. It should be noted however, that Suppan is 3-1 his last 5 starts against the Cards, with the lone loss coming in May.



Wellemeyer is just 1-2 the last 3 times he has started against the Brewers.



Milwaukee needs to stop the bleeding in a big way, and at this near pick price, I think they will do so tonight.



10 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Sadowski over Vostad)



The Giants continue to get the job done, especially at home, as last night's win over the Marlins pushed their home mark to 28-13!



Gotta back them again as the home favorite, and sweep the Marlins. Rookie Ryan Sadowski is a perfect 2-for-2 since his call up, working 13 innings without allowing an earned run to score. Hard to argue that!



The Marlins are just 18-21 on the road this year, and starter Chris Volstad has been strictly middle of the road of late, as 9 runs have scored in 15 innings of work for a 1-1 mark his last 3 times out.



Volstad also took the loss back in early June at home against the Giants who are now 4-2 in this year's season series. The Giants are also 6-2 at home dating back to 2007 against the Fish.



Take Frisco to break out the broom!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

JEFFERSON-SPORTS

MLB
FLORIDA+103

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Chris Jordan
Chris Jordan Wednesday's winner ...


300? CHICAGO WHITE SOX (LIST Contreras and Laffey) - Coming right back for my third 300? in a row with another stab on the South Siders. It's so hard to ignore this series, since the White Sox have been dominating this team.

Chicago's 10-6 win last night was the White Sox's (43-40) 13th in 17 games, while the setback for the AL-worst Indians (33-51) was their 15th in 19 games.

Part of those streaks for both teams is a three-game sweep by Chicago, in Cleveland, last week. The South Siders outscored the Tribe by a combined tally of 23-9, which means they've now outscored Cleveland by a tally of 33-15 the last four games.

The Sox will once again provide plenty of run support tonight, as I see them producing plenty of offense against Aaron Laffey, who is in off the disabled list after making four Minor League rehab starts. Not exactly sure he's ready to come back, though, as he turned in rough starts for Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus in his last two outings, including last Friday, when he was slapped around for for seven runs on 10 hits in four innings for Columbus.

Instead we're siding with Jose Contreras, who received some needed run support and an overdue win in his last start. Contreras got double the run support that he had in the two previous games combined in a 6-2 victory over the Indians last Wednesday. He tossed eight innings and gave up just five hits and two runs while striking out a season-high eight batters.

It marked his fourth quality start in five games since returning from his own minor-league stint. The power right-hander has posted a 2.17 ERA in those starts, with 29 strikeouts and just five walks, while lowering his season ERA from 8.19 to 4.84. He's an impressive 6-2 in 14 appearances (13 starts) with just higher than a 3.00 ERA against the Indians in his career.

This is another easy one, as the Sox are going to blast visiting Cleveland once again.

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini Wednesday's play 20 Dime -- Dodgers (Kuroda) -1 1/2 runs over METS (Perez)

DODGERS
NOTE: List only Kuroda and Perez as starting pitchers

The Mets gave Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (3-4, 3.91 ERA) a ton of trouble last year, pounding him for 10 runs (eight earned) and 15 hits in six innings over two starts.

But this New York team is much different than last season’s squad. Eight of those 15 hits off Kuroda were by five players no longer on the roster, one retired (Moises Alou) and four injured (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Angel Pagan and Jose Reyes).

Those missing players have taken a toll of the Mets’ offense, which is downright awful these days. Here are the numbers, which are more frightening than most horror movies: New York has scored 25 runs in its last 11 games, and nine of those came in one game. The Mets, who were shut out on four hits Tuesday, are 2-9 in those 11 games. They have lost four straight, have scored three runs in those four games and haven’t scored at all in their last 22 innings.

Scary, isn’t it?

And just when it can’t get much worse for the Mets, who do they have pitching today? Erratic left-hander Oliver Perez (1-2, 9.97), who is making his first start since May 2. Perez, who was on the disabled list with patellar tendinitis in his right knee, wasn’t exactly sharp in his rehab outings, walking nine batters in 9 1/3 innings over two Triple-A starts. In his last rehab start, he allowed three runs on five hits in five innings while throwing just 46 of his 92 pitches for strikes.

Perez also is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his last five starts against Los Angeles, giving up 30 hits and 22 walks in 28 2/3 innings, and that was when he was healthy.

Enough said? I think so. This one could get ugly fast. Take the Dodgers on the run line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Jeff Benton
Wednesday's MLB winners ... 10 Dime: DODGERS (over Mets) ... NOTE: Stick with this play regardless of any changes to the starting pitchers.

5 Dime: Rangers-Angels OVER the total ... NOTE: Vicente Padilla (Rangers) and Ervin Santana (Angels) must start this game on the mound or this play is VOID!


Dodgers

You know I’m not a fan of laying this kind of chalk, especially with a road team. But I’m making an exception tonight because the Mets are just god-awful right now. With last night’s 8-0 shutout loss to Los Angeles, New York has now dropped four in a row, which in and of itself wouldn’t be THAT bad except when you look at the scores of those four games: 7-2, 4-1, 2-0 and 8-0.

That’s right: The Mets have produced just three runs in their last 36 innings. Going back to June 26, New York is 2-9 in its last 11 games, and the only wins came by scores of 1-0 at Milwaukee and 9-8 at Pittsburgh in extra innings. If you take out that nine-run effort at the Pirates and a six-run output in a 10-6 loss at the Brewers, the Mets have scored a grand total of 10 runs in the other nine games during this 2-9 slump, including a total of three runs in four straight home losses.

Now compare that to what the Dodgers’ offense has done since Manny Ramirez returned to the lineup, putting up 8, 7, 4 and 6 runs – all on the road, all in pitcher’s parks (San Diego and New York) – while winning three of those four contests. In fact, L.A. is 4-1 in its last five games, and it continues to own baseball’s best record at 53-30. Those 53 wins include four victories in as many tries against the Mets, whose putrid offense has produced a total of six runs against L.A. pitching this season.

Speaking of pitching, the Dodgers also have the edge on the mound tonight with Hiroki Kuroda (3-4, 3.91 ERA overall; 3-1, 3.60 ERA on the road) going up against Oliver Perez, who is returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list that was as much about mental issues as it was any physical ailment. Before being essentially demoted to the minors, Perez posted a 9.97 ERA in five starts, with the Mets losing four of them. He’s given up 28 hits and 21 walks in 21 2/3 innings. Now the southpaw is going up against one of the most patient, productive lineups in all of baseball – a lineup that’s hitting .290 on the season against lefties!

Bottom line: Perez is going to have to be near perfect to win this game because there’s little chance he’s going to get much run support from an offense that’s barely batting .200 during its 2-9 slump. And while I know the old cliché is that pitching wins games, but if you can’t score, you can’t win. And right now the Mets cannot score a lick. So we’ll lay the reasonable chalk with the best team in baseball as it improves to 5-0 against New York this season.


Rangers-Angels OVER the total

Let’s start with the fact that these teams have faced each other four times in the last eight days and the final scores of those contests were 9-5, 9-7, 9-4 and 8-5 – all four easily going OVER the total. Going back to the last week of the 2008 season, these teams have played five games at Angel Stadium and combined for 13, 12, 7, 14, 16, 13 and 13 runs.

Of course, as I always say, any play on a baseball total – be it an over or under – has to begin with the starting pitching. Well, we’ve got two starters going tonight who are giving it up in bunches in Texas’ Vicente Padilla and L.A.’s Ervin Santana.

Padilla has a 4.75 ERA overall and a 6.38 ERA in eight night games (compared with a 3.07 ERA in day contests). Padilla has allowed 126 baserunners in 83 1/3 innings, including 77 baserunners in 42 1/3 innings at night. And in last Monday’s 5-2 loss to the Angels – his most recent start – Padilla gave up five runs on 10 hits (two home runs) in five innings. He’s now got an ERA barely south of 5.00 in 13 career starts against the Angels, and the “over” is 5-0 in his last five starts at Angel Stadium.

As for Santana, in between two stints on the disabled list, the right-hander has made seven starts in 2009 and been dreadful in nearly all of them. He’s 1-4 with a 7.43 ERA overall, including 0-2 with a whopping 12.12 ERA in four starts at home, giving up 24 runs, 34 hits and 10 walks in just 16 1/3 innings in his own ballpark (where he had previously dominated in his career). Also, the right-hander hasn’t exactly enjoyed facing Texas, posting a 6.46 ERA in 14 career starts, with the “over” going 5-1-1 in his last seven outings against the Rangers.

The over is also on runs of 4-1-1 for Santana at home, 27-13-2 for Padilla on the road, 4-1 in the Rangers’ last five on the highway and 11-4-1 in the Angels’ last 16 at home. Throw in two sensational offensive ballclubs, and this one’s got double digit runs written all over it. Play it OVER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Seabass:

20* Clev
20* Bos over
20* NYY over
20* Philly
50* SF
100* Sea

100* "steam" - Minn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Vrunner two *3 plays
VR 3* NYY/MIN (BURNETT vs SWARZAK) OVER 9.5
VR 3* STL (WELLEMEYER vs SUPPAN)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-8-09

Tom Stryker's MLB Grand Slam Super Total Play
Off last night's awesome Upset Special payday on St. Louis, Tom returns to the diamond on Wednesday night with a rare total selection. The pitching matchup in this game supports this investment tremendously and two more power team trends ensure that this key release will bring home the bacon. Grab Tom's MLB Grand Slam Super Total Play for $20.
Price: $20.00


ST.LOUIS OVER 9.5